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Originally posted by Steve
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So you want to use a 1st round pick on a player who is going to be on the field for something like 375 snaps? They are going to get something like 65 tackles, and probably 1 sack and maybe 1 int. That's a good use of a 1st round pick. After we ditch Perryman, because a 1st round LB would be the only one worth paying, would get up to a couple 2-5 sacks, maybe 3-4 int and 1 or 2 fumble recovery. Or we can get 80-90% of that production with a later round pick, or a street FA LB who is a June 1st cut. The difference between a top LB and the average one is pretty small. Spending a top pick and ton of money for an ILB is simply not worth it.
The guy who is the new DC for the Giants plays his base D the most of any NFL Team. 65% of the time they play their nickel and dime packages (over the last 3 years, http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...-bill-barnwell). You can be stupid about it all you want, but LB are role players. Even the 1 guy
Again, your the one saying we don't need to draft new ones. Good LB get taken in the middle and later rounds all the time. I am saying that it is a waste to draft a high pick to sit them on the bench. Spending top picks on LB. The only way making a top pick at LB is if we plan to get rid of Perryman, who is our only decent LB. It's just not worth the investment to spend a top pick on a player who sits on the bench. a 1st or 2nd round pick to be a ST star?
DT is the biggest need on D. Nothing more than average production despite the attention teams have to play at DE. Liuget hasn't been productive in years. Mebane is fading fast. We NEED a DT. Not necessarily in round one, but we need help at DT. Even another DE makes sense since both Bosa and Ingram can spend some time inside on rush downs. A 1st round pick to allow more of a rotation, and let Bosa and Ingram be fresher will improve their production, and upgrades the inside rush. 3 guys getting snaps at just 2 positions means about 650 snaps each, and if they slide inside, then that is, even more, snaps each. DE is not a position I would rule out, although the top DE rarely last until 17.
And there is plenty of room to improve at S. How many people think that Phillips or Addae are anything more than average? They both had career years and proved how well the dime package works against the run and pass. The dime package is 20 yards per game less rushing than the nickel. Add better players there and it gets even better. BUt the differential between the better S and the average guys is a lot higher. More splash plays.
If I was going to draft a LB, it would be a OTTO LB, who is not going to play that many snaps at OLB, but would be used mostly as another edge rusher. Another LEO rush LB to sub with Ingram and Bosa (and McCain) are just another way to rotate the rushers. But if we draft him, he isn't going to play LB, he would be a pass rusher 1st, a "starting" (what a fucking joke that term is) LB.
NFL teams are playing more and more DB more of the time. drafting a guy like Griffin or James at S mean that our dime package can be on the field even more, not less. That is where we get the best bang for the buck. Half the teams in the NFL have a big S who plays the LB spot, just like Phillips did, who played the spot pretty well last year. You can call them S if you want, or you can call them LB, but Phillips is our best LB, and he should be upgraded with another player like him (or Addae).
The other thing is trying to upgrade RT, OG (and play Lamp at RT) or even TE. Trade down and add a pick or so in the late 2nd (or next year) or 3rd, and add depth at a position we can use.
People can say that they know who will be available in the 1st are kidding themselves. Mock drafts are poor indicators of actual draft selections. Historically, the best mock draft guy gets less than 50% of the picks right, and the 1st round if comparatively easy. With so much uncertainty about Baker Mayfield and Jackson, plus the RB's (thinking Guice)
The guy who is the new DC for the Giants plays his base D the most of any NFL Team. 65% of the time they play their nickel and dime packages (over the last 3 years, http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...-bill-barnwell). You can be stupid about it all you want, but LB are role players. Even the 1 guy
Again, your the one saying we don't need to draft new ones. Good LB get taken in the middle and later rounds all the time. I am saying that it is a waste to draft a high pick to sit them on the bench. Spending top picks on LB. The only way making a top pick at LB is if we plan to get rid of Perryman, who is our only decent LB. It's just not worth the investment to spend a top pick on a player who sits on the bench. a 1st or 2nd round pick to be a ST star?
DT is the biggest need on D. Nothing more than average production despite the attention teams have to play at DE. Liuget hasn't been productive in years. Mebane is fading fast. We NEED a DT. Not necessarily in round one, but we need help at DT. Even another DE makes sense since both Bosa and Ingram can spend some time inside on rush downs. A 1st round pick to allow more of a rotation, and let Bosa and Ingram be fresher will improve their production, and upgrades the inside rush. 3 guys getting snaps at just 2 positions means about 650 snaps each, and if they slide inside, then that is, even more, snaps each. DE is not a position I would rule out, although the top DE rarely last until 17.
And there is plenty of room to improve at S. How many people think that Phillips or Addae are anything more than average? They both had career years and proved how well the dime package works against the run and pass. The dime package is 20 yards per game less rushing than the nickel. Add better players there and it gets even better. BUt the differential between the better S and the average guys is a lot higher. More splash plays.
If I was going to draft a LB, it would be a OTTO LB, who is not going to play that many snaps at OLB, but would be used mostly as another edge rusher. Another LEO rush LB to sub with Ingram and Bosa (and McCain) are just another way to rotate the rushers. But if we draft him, he isn't going to play LB, he would be a pass rusher 1st, a "starting" (what a fucking joke that term is) LB.
NFL teams are playing more and more DB more of the time. drafting a guy like Griffin or James at S mean that our dime package can be on the field even more, not less. That is where we get the best bang for the buck. Half the teams in the NFL have a big S who plays the LB spot, just like Phillips did, who played the spot pretty well last year. You can call them S if you want, or you can call them LB, but Phillips is our best LB, and he should be upgraded with another player like him (or Addae).
The other thing is trying to upgrade RT, OG (and play Lamp at RT) or even TE. Trade down and add a pick or so in the late 2nd (or next year) or 3rd, and add depth at a position we can use.
People can say that they know who will be available in the 1st are kidding themselves. Mock drafts are poor indicators of actual draft selections. Historically, the best mock draft guy gets less than 50% of the picks right, and the 1st round if comparatively easy. With so much uncertainty about Baker Mayfield and Jackson, plus the RB's (thinking Guice)
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