2004 QB Draft Class

[Bolt-O]

I think he'll get in, eventually. Without a championship, it will be at least 2 years after his eligibility, maybe 4 or 5 years. I'd say that Roethisberger is a 1st year guy, Eli possibly in his first year, depending on other retirements.

[Guest]

If Rivers career fades in to oblivion form this point on I do not think he will get in to the HOF. Gates will but Rivers has never been All-Pro and the only statistical category he has led the league in is interceptions and has very limited post season success or 4th quarter comebacks. His winning percentage has been going way down recently too. What is Rivers signature victory? What is his HOF moment? He has broken Dan Fouts franchise records because the league favors passing more now by rule, all passing stats today are better than in the past pretty much.

Drew Bledsoe and Carson Palmer are also pretty high no one is saying they are HOF. I think Dan Fouts was all time leading passer when he retired, as was Marino...perhaps Moon and Tarkenton were as well. All the others have SuperBowls.

I don't even think Eli is HOF but he might make it anyway. Ben probably will get in.

I don't think retiring in the top 10 automatically gets you in. It's not like baseball with hallowed statistical records where certain milestones usually means your in automatically.

The HOF is essentially a popularity contest because there is no strict criteria for a player getting into the HOF. There isn't a sheet with boxes to be ticked, and if you tick them, you get in.

So what makes a HOF QB?

Rings can help and they certainly helped Terry Bradshaw since his regular season stats are pretty lacklustre. What saves him is those four Super Bowl wins with excellent passer ratings and performances. Take those away and his 70.9 passer rating and his win-loss record would most likely not get him into the hall of fame.

But rings and Super Bowl performances alone shouldn't be the single criteria otherwise Joe Flacco will end up in the hall of fame. Think about it. Flacco currently ranks eighth all time in play off wins (10 wins) and ranks first overall in road play off wins (8 wins) and he's still active. It is possible that those numbers will get better if the Ravens return to post season before he retires. It is possible he could pass quarterbacks like Troy Aikman (11 play off wins), Brett Favre (13 play off wins), Peyton Manning (14 play off wins), John Elway (14 play off wins), and even Joe Montana (16 play off wins) before his career is over if the Ravens get back to being a contender again. What else does he have going for him? Well he did have that great run and was a huge part in the Ravens' 2012 storied Super Bowl run and win. So in regards to his postseason play and achievements, there is an argument for Joe Flacco to get into the hall of fame when he retires, and that's without him adding any further accolades. Which player from the 2004 draft class can be utter in the same breath as Joe Flacco? Eli Manning. He's another player that has had tremendous success in postseason, has 8 play off wins (7 of which are road victories and rank second all time), and has two Super Bowl wins over Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Do we really think Joe Flacco is a HOF QB? I'd probably hazard a guess that most would say no.

What about Eli? Again I'd say a fair amount of people would say no because he's never really be an elite quarterback and he's been a hot and cold quarterback his entire career. However, his production should see him retire sixth on the all time passing yards and TDs list which is arguably enough for hall of fame consideration. What will boost his candidacy is those two rings.

So what does that mean about our beloved Philip Rivers' chances of making the HOF?

I would say he has a better than 50-50 chance of making the hall of fame. The main thing that holds him back is his postseason play because outside of one run to the AFC championship game he has fallen in the divisional round. In fact his postseason stats are fairly unspectacular. So I don't think postseason play will come into his HOF candidacy unless he does something in his remaining years (unlikely). However, what will get him HOF consideration is his regular season production because he already ranks 10th on the all time passing yard list. Every other retired quarterback, ring or no ring, is currently in the hall of fame. By the end of this season Eli should pass Elway and go 6th on the all time list, and Rivers and Roethlisberger should pass Moon and rank 8th and 9th on the all time list. All three quarterbacks have two further years left on their contracts and that should mean that Rivers and Roethlisberger pass Elway on the all time list as well. So in all likelihood this trio of passers from the 2004 draft will finish their careers 6-8th on the all time passers list. It would take some significant production or further years of play for them to pass Dan Marino. A further point is their passing TDs, all three QBs should finish in the same ranking all time. Even if they retire at the end of this season, all three quarterbacks should be top ten in passing yards and TDs when they become eligible, which is generally enough in itself to get hall of fame status, or at least get them into the discussion.

For me, I think all three can get into the hall of fame. However, Rivers is probably the guy that is the most likely to miss out because of his lack of postseason success. In what is essentially a glorified popularity contest, you either need to have the rings on your finger to get you in, or you need to be extremely productive and/or popular at the same time. I'd like to think that Rivers gets the nod, but it is possible he misses out. Perhaps he is in the same tier as guys like Drew Bledsoe and Carson Palmer, but my Chargers bias blinds me. But I'd look at this top ten stats in passing yards and TDs as a marker to say he deserves a place regardless of his postseason play. Anyway, time will tell.

[BlazingBolt]

You either need the rings or the stats. Rivers has no rings and while he has broken some historical franchise records of Fouts he has not been a dominant statistical QB either relative to his era.

Perhaps, but if Rivers finishes his career ranked 6-8th in all time passing yards and TDs, it’s hard to ignore someone like that. Lack of postseason success hurts his case, but he’s got the stats to at least begin the discussion, and eventual induction.

[Guest]

I think Rivers gets in, though it may take a few years depending on when guys like Brees, Brady, Eli (ugh), and Ben retire.

It's scary to think that we will see an end of an era of quarterbacks very soon. When Rivers, Ben, Eli, Brees and Brady call it a day they will leave a huge hole for others to fill.

[OhioBolt]

Eli is probably the least talented of the 3, but he has benefited from a great defense that carried his teams to the Super Bowl and the freak catch by David Tyree. The Giant D has always been a factor in the Super Bowls because Jeff Hostetler, and Phil Sims won a Super Bowl but they aren't Hall of Famers. It pains me to think Eli will be a Hall of Famers because of the two Super Bowl wins.

Eli will finish his career ranked 6th all time in passing yards and ranked in the top ten in passing TDs. He’s also got the second most road wins in the play offs.

So while he’s blown hot and cold in his career, he also has hall of fame worthy stats to go along with his super bowl rings.

[Gwynning_Spirit]

Does Eli belong any less than Namath?

Namath had more career INTs than TDs, one more loss than wins, only played in 3 career playoff games, with both wins coming the SB year.

He did turn down getting drafted by the Cardinals to go play for NY... In an alternate universe, Broadway Jim Hart leads the Jests to a Superbowl III win after shooting his mouth off, and his defense picks off the Colts 4 times.

[SDFan]

Terrell Owens didn't get in because of personality issues. Rivers was pegged nationally years ago as a complainer with a big mouth for the televised incident with ****ler and the Broncos, even though it was misrepresented to look worse than it was. That could be a deciding factor?

[BlazingBolt]

I don't think so. Owens was hurt by his treatment of the media and the perception that he was a team cancer. While many consider Rivers a crybaby who has tantrums I don't think he has the other factors that hurt owens. I just don't think he is statistically dominant enough with out the post season success.

He’s currently on pace to finish his career somewhere between 6-8th on the all time passing yards and TDs list. I’d say that shows he’s been fairly dominant as a passer. Factor in he’s played two years less than Eli and Ben, but is right with them, and that shows what he’s done as a passer. Maybe it’s not enough, but generally top ten all time list players get into the hall of fame.

Unless of course everyone puts Rivers in the same boat as blessoe and vinny. If that’s the case he’s not getting in, or at least unlikely to.

[OhioBolt]

Eli is has the lowest career passing percentage, and the highest int percentage compared to Big Ben and Rivers.

[SDFan]

Fouts, Tarkenton, Jim Kelly.... none of them won a SB. They are in the hall of fame.

IMO, the uniqueness of their situations helped: Fouts leading Air Coryell was innovative and changed the NFL passing game, Tarkenton exemplifying what a scrambling NFL QB could be/do while leading his team to 3 Super Bowls and owning every QB passing and rushing record when he retired, and Kelly with the K-Gun- and at least leading his team to 4 straight SB appearances even though they didn't win.

To me Rivers is in a tier with Warren Moon, Dan Marino, and Vinny Testaverde, who put up big career passing stats without being game innovators- and lacked the extra something in the leadership category to carry their teams to multiple Super Bowls.