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AFC Playoff Picture at three-quarter mark - 2018

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  • AFC Playoff Picture at three-quarter mark - 2018

    Copied this from the Chiefs forum since it applies to us:

    AFC Playoff Picture at three-quarter mark - 2018
    Now we enter the home stretch. 4 games to go:

    DIVISION:

    1. Kansas City 10-2 (BYE)
    2. New England 9-3 (BYE)
    3. Houston 9-3
    4. Pittsburgh 7-4-1

    WILD CARD:
    5. LA Chargers 9-3
    6. Baltimore 7-5

    ---

    7. Miami 6-6
    8. Indianapolis 6-6
    9. Denver 6-6
    10. Tennessee 6-6


    SCHEDULES:
    KC - BAL, LAC, @SEA, OAK
    NE - @MIA, @PIT, BUF, NYJ
    HOU - IND, @NYJ, @PHI, JAX
    PIT - @OAK, NE, @NO, CIN

    LAC - CIN, @KC, BAL, @DEN
    BAL - @KC, TB, @SD, CLE

    MIA - NE, @MIN, JAX, @BUF
    IND - @HOU, DAL, NYG, @TEN
    DEN - @SF, CLE, @OAK, SD
    TEN - JAX, @NYG, WAS, IND

  • #2
    Finishing 2-2 will clinch the wildcard. 4-0 might win the division.

    Comment


    • #3
      Per fivethirtyeight.com ELO, 96% chance of making the playoffs.

      Comment


      • #4
        Denver has 3 really easy games before they play us. I'd really like to have 11 wins when we play them so it is meaningless.

        Comment


        • #5
          If we win out and KC lose to Sea (and lose to use) do the Chargers get the #1 seed?

          Comment


          • #6
            It's getting close to where we need to run those simulations on ole playoff machine.

            http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

            Comment


            • #7
              So we have to go to Pittsburgh again? Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
              Moving to LA is not a good business decision, it’s a death sentence.

              Comment


              • #8
                Im rooting for us to lose the Ravens so they can win the division.
                Moving to LA is not a good business decision, it’s a death sentence.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by rikardo View Post
                  If we win out and KC lose to Sea (and lose to use) do the Chargers get the #1 seed?
                  Probably would need Houston and NE to lose some games to get the the #1 seed, but if KC loses those 2, and the Chargers win out, the Chargers will win the division, probably with the #3 seed.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Congratualtion, Bay Area... both your teams officially out of playoff contention. Per PlayoffStatus.com, Chargers at 95% chance of making the playoffs, around 10% of winning the division.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Iím not sure we want to win the Division. We are 6-0 in games outside of LA and 3-3 in LA

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Bolt-O View Post

                        Probably would need Houston and NE to lose some games to get the the #1 seed, but if KC loses those 2, and the Chargers win out, the Chargers will win the division, probably with the #3 seed.
                        Assuming we win out and Texas and NE win out we would be 2 seed. Same record, same conference record, NE beats Texas in head to head and NE just nips us in common opponents. Both Texas and NE lost to Tennessee but NE beat KC and best we could do is split with them. KC has 2 more losses in them, Us and Seattle

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Formula 21 View Post
                          So we have to go to Pittsburgh again? Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
                          Exactly what I was thinking. I'd just as soon not have to go to Pitt again!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by JupiterBolt View Post
                            Finishing 2-2 will clinch the wildcard. 4-0 might win the division.
                            Need KC to lose another game besides the Thursday Night game for the division win to happen

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by rikardo View Post
                              If we win out and KC lose to Sea (and lose to use) do the Chargers get the #1 seed?
                              Depends on what New England and Houston do, both of which can also finish 13-3

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Time for a Philcember to remember.
                                Moving to LA is not a good business decision, it’s a death sentence.

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  If they can't win a rematch in Pittsburgh then they're not a SB caliber team anyway

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by chargerkdb View Post

                                    Assuming we win out and Texas and NE win out we would be 2 seed. Same record, same conference record, NE beats Texas in head to head and NE just nips us in common opponents. Both Texas and NE lost to Tennessee but NE beat KC and best we could do is split with them. KC has 2 more losses in them, Us and Seattle
                                    According to the playoff generator, all 3 teams at 13-3 (and KC at 12-4) results in Houston with the #1 seed, NE with the #2 seed, and LAC with the #3 seed

                                    I'm not sure if messing around with other games that I just had all home teams winning would affect that due to common games or not, however.

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      Originally posted by Bolt-O View Post
                                      It's getting close to where we need to run those simulations on ole playoff machine.

                                      http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
                                      I was just playing with it. Us just winning out isn't enough for better than the 5 seed unless KC gets another loss.

                                      KC's hardest games ahead are Ravens in KC (Which I suspect theyll probably win) and Seattle in Seattle (which could be a good game!)

                                      The Ravens vs KC would probably be the ideal win for us. Since Pitt has a couple tough games upcoming in the Saints and Pat's.. The Ravens winning that game probably gives them the edge in their division.


                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by HollywoodLeo View Post

                                        According to the playoff generator, all 3 teams at 13-3 (and KC at 12-4) results in Houston with the #1 seed, NE with the #2 seed, and LAC with the #3 seed

                                        I'm not sure if messing around with other games that I just had all home teams winning would affect that due to common games or not, however.
                                        Well, assuming all 3 finish 13-3 then the first tiebreaker is record which is same. so the second tiebreaker is head to head and NE beat Houston. If we all win out no way for Houston to be 1st seed. All three teams have 2 losses in AFC. NE would have better record against common opponents over us and beat Houston head to head. If all three win out NE would be #1 seed

                                        Comment

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