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This will be the toughest task this season for both teams. Whoever win this Sunday will move on to win the SB.
The running game and defenses of both sides will carry the teams. They have 1 of the better running games in the league. They'll keep running the ball to soften our pass rush, indirecting protecting Brady.
Our passing offense won't struggle too much but will be contain some, until the 4th quarter. I think Rivers and co. will go off in the 4th quarter when fatigue kicks in their defense. This depends on weather condition.
I think we'll kick a lot of FGs this game, a lot of grindy drives to their end zone. Belichick's D always a bend-don't-break defense, give up yards but don't give up much TDs, dating back to his NYG days, no matter who calling the plays in NE, they always defend well in red zone. This season they're bottom 10 in yards defense, top 10 in scoring defense. Need Money Bag to continue to kick accurately.
Belichick will tries to take advange of our OL's weakness, especially the interior, so expect a lot of blitz inside to the middle, run-blitz, stunts and stuffs. They'll try to abuse our guards.
Our ST has been good all season in returns and coverages, but horrible defending trick plays and kicker/punter protection. If we punt, they'll go all out try to block the kick, rather than play for the return. A trick play here and there will occurs. In crucial situations, watch carefully on our interior protection in both offense and ST. Belichick always find a weakness, draw up something, but save it for crucial situations, the money downs, 3rd downs, 4th downs, game changing downs in the 4th quarter. In the SB comeback against ATL, they scouted Jake Matthews and had a way to exploit his weakness that season, but wait until the 4th quarter to do it. Without that sack push them out of the FG range, ATL would have won the SB.
Gates will get blank in this game. Belichick knows Rivers always look for Gates on 3rd down and/or red zone. However Hunter Henry will catches some 4th quarter balls from Rivers. I think Belichick will focuses on Allen and M-Will, Gates in certain downs. He'll take chance with T-Will. Expect T-Will to have a good game with a lot of catches, and Henry will catches some clutch balls. Belichick will take chance on Henry on the money downs, given that he is not in football shape and will probably struggle some in his 1st game back.
When they find something or draw up something new, or changing something they do all season, they save them for game changing situational plays. The ATL sack mentioned above, the Eldeman passed to Chris Hogan for game-winning TD in BAL game (never use it before despite Eldeman was a QB). Brady talks with his receivers and sometimes change the playbook play, change the route from the playbook, the night before the game, like the Reche Caldwell breaking back to the corner of the endzone for the game winning TD against us, that play was supposed to go inside. Same with the Eldeman break outside in the SEA SB, the playbook play was to in the inside.
Teams can pulled this off only if the QB is in sync with the receiver, they communicated before the game and eyes contact during at moment to decide when to change the route from the playbook. If QB and WR not in sync then it'll mess up the timing and end up incompletion or interception. So during crucial plays, watch for those thing. Our players have to anticipate and know our weakness, know the things that vulnerable and could be target, play with alertness, awareness, correct anticipation, react fast, be ready for whatever Belichick might have in his sleeves.
We have a historical trend going for us: We are just the 8th team in NFL history to win 9 road games in a season, including playoffs. The other 7 all won the Super Bowl! Road warriors with iron-like mental toughness usually win it all.
I'd say we're even tougher than those 7 teams. If you count in our home wins, our home wins are just like road wins. Low supports in a temporary stadium in a new city with a thin fan-base. Many teams have better road-support than our home-support.
The more I gather information and think about this game, I think we'll win if there are no heavy snow. If there is heavy snow then it'll be extremely tough to beat them, a toss up. They just don't lose those snow games, especially at home, when the fans tossing up snow everywhere, every players up their playing level.
If there are no snow I think we'll win outright. They're rest and all, but we're a better team, and their "mystic" is not what it used to be. Their "mystic" is fading. Teams have dissected them to dead for almost 20 years now. Even the NFC teams, people have tried to steal things from them, it's a copycat league. Their ex-coaches, ex-players are everywhere. There is hardly any mystical thing about them anymore. Bradley and Whiz are respectable, proven grandmasters who can go back and forth with Belichick.
Nate Burleson started the "Belichick plays chess while everyone else play checker" words of wisdom. He played Belichick as a player, he knows. But if you train a good checker players for 2 years they can be a very good chess players, too. And coaches have study Belichick and NE for 20 years now. Lynn had a lot of experience against NE in the AFC East. He never had the talents to win against them, he has now.
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