2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[Formula 21]

I wanted to get the discussion started for next year. I also like to look back at these after the season to see which players stepped up and solidified thier standing and which ones did not.

Sorry for the graphics, some things are just not editable.

2021 NFL Mock Draft: Steelers, Lions take QBs as six go in Round 1, Patrick Surtain II off board early

Six quarterbacks go in the first round as teams look for their new franchise cornerstones










Tom Fornelli
4 hrs ago• 1 min read

Follow Tom at @TomFornelli


The NFL Draft is a year-round process. While it takes place over three days in the spring, teams never stop preparing for it. So, even if the 2021 NFL Draft is 11 months away, it's never too early to try to get an idea of what's likely to happen.
In my mock, I try to find a blend of what teams could need following the 2020 season, and what players are the likeliest to be coveted by NFL teams. Don't take this too literally. Instead, look at it as a thought exercise about what each team needs and who seems to be the best fit for filling it.
The draft order below was determined using SportsLine's season win projections coming out of the 2020 NFL Draft, with considerations made to allow for the playoffs (i.e., one AFC and NFC team each in the last two picks).


Let's go.


NFL Mock Draft
Round 1

Round 1 - Pick 1 Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson • Soph • 6'6" / 220 lbs Considering how so many people picked apart every facet of Lawrence's game in 2019, it'll be interesting to see what happens to him in 2020 when he's projected to be the first pick. There are no sure things at the QB position, but Lawrence feels like the safest bet I've seen since Andrew Luck.

Round 1 - Pick 2 Penei Sewell OL Oregon • Soph • 6'6" / 325 lbs How often is an offensive tackle the most exciting player to watch on the field? Seriously, you don't have to be a line play aficionado to notice Sewell when the Ducks are playing. He dominates opponents, and could easily end up being the No. 1 pick overall.

Round 1 - Pick 3 Shaun Wade CB Ohio State • Soph • 6'1" / 194 lbs Ohio State has become DB U in recent years. If the Redskins are picking third next year, there's an excellent chance a Buckeyes corner goes in the top three in consecutive drafts. Excelled in the slot last season and should spend more time outside in 2020. That kind of versatility is precious in today's NFL.

Round 1 - Pick 4 Gregory Rousseau DL Miami (FL) • Fr • 6'6" / 250 lbs The former three-star recruit had a monster season in 2019, finishing with 15.5 sacks. There isn't a Chase Young type in this draft class as far as the obvious pass-rusher is concerned, but Rousseau could easily emerge as that guy.

Round 1 - Pick 5 Micah Parsons LB Penn State • Soph • 6'3" / 245 lbs Parsons is this draft's version of Isaiah Simmons. He's a tremendous, playmaking athlete that can fill several roles comfortably at the next level.

Round 1 - Pick 6 Ja'Marr Chase WR LSU • Soph • 6'1" / 200 lbs You know how everyone talked about how amazing the 2020 WR class was? Well, had Chase come out, it's not inconceivable to think he'd have been the first one taken off the board.

Round 1 - Pick 7 Justin Fields QB Ohio State • Soph • 6'3" / 223 lbs Fields has the kind of talent and potential that will likely see somebody trading up into the top three to get him come draft time. The way this board falls, however, nobody else needed a QB until the Panthers. The difference in ceiling between him and Lawrence isn't massive.

Round 1 - Pick 8 Trey Lance QB North Dakota State • Fr • 6'3" / 221 lbs The Lions are going to have to find a replacement for Matt Stafford at some point, and Lance is a prospect a lot of teams like. He's big, mobile, and accurate.

From Houston Texans Round 1 - Pick 9 Jevon Holland S Oregon • Soph • 6'1" / 196 lbs Holland is the second Oregon player off the board in this top 10. Some might ding him a bit because he's not truly great at anything, but I don't see a weakness, either. He's also served as a returner, which is another indication of his overall athleticism and playmaking ability should he get the ball in his hands on defense.

Round 1 - Pick 10 Kyle Pitts TE Florida • Soph • 6'6" / 239 lbs Pitts was the one player who stood out to me on the Florida offense last season. He hasn't shown to be a great in-line tight end to this point, but he has the size and frame that indicates he could be. Either way, his size and athleticism make him a matchup nightmare.

Round 1 - Pick 11 Patrick Surtain II DB Alabama • Soph • 6'2" / 203 lbs It's depressing when you see the children of players you watched growing up showing up in mock drafts. What isn't depressing is Surtain's ability as a corner. I have Shaun Wade as my top corner in this draft as of now, but Surtain could easily be the first one off the board by next spring.

Round 1 - Pick 12 Marvin Wilson DL Florida State • Jr • 6'5" / 311 lbs There have been many things about Florida State that have gone wrong in recent years, but Marvin Wilson was never one of them. He's just an absolute stud in the middle of your defensive line. He's not just a run-stuffer, either, as he can get to the QB. I like him better than Derrick Brown and Javon Kinlaw, who were top 13 picks this year.

Round 1 - Pick 13 Creed Humphrey OL Oklahoma • Soph • 6'5" / 316 lbs An absolute mauler at the guard position. He's built like a refrigerator if your fridge hated you and put you on your butt every time you walked in front of it.

Round 1 - Pick 14 K.J. Costello QB Stanford • Sr • 6'5" / 222 lbs Costello was a highly-rated recruit out of high school whose career got off to an impressive start at Stanford. After a down 2019, he'll be playing in Mike Leach's offense in 2020 at Mississippi State. He's got the size NFL teams love, and a strong arm. He's not all that dissimilar from Philip Rivers, whom the Colts just signed as a free agent.

Round 1 - Pick 15 Dylan Moses LB Alabama • Jr • 6'3" / 235 lbs Moses missed the 2019 season due to injury, and had he played, there's a good chance he'd have left for the NFL Draft. If he stays healthy in 2020, he could end up being a top-10 pick.

Round 1 - Pick 16 Rondale Moore WR Purdue • Soph • 5'9" / 180 lbs Moore is everything the Bears offense lacks at the moment. He has game-breaking ability and is a threat to score every time he touches the football.

Round 1 - Pick 17 Justyn Ross WR Clemson • Soph • 6'4" / 205 lbs The Packers finally draft a wide receiver! It's hard to know how teams will view the receivers in this class, but while I don't think it's as top-heavy as the 2020 class, I do think there's a lot of depth to it.

From Los Angeles Rams Round 1 - Pick 18 Caden Sterns DB Texas • Soph • 6'1" / 205 lbs Sterns was banged up in 2019, but is a terrific prospect. His size will be a concern to some, but he has everything else an NFL team could want in a safety.

Round 1 - Pick 19 Walker Little OL Stanford • Jr • 6'7" / 309 lbs Little was a five-star prospect out of high school, and I think there's more projection to his game than production. That projection, though, is that of a cornerstone tackle on your offensive line.

Round 1 - Pick 20 Pat Freiermuth TE Penn State • Soph • 6'5" / 256 lbs Pitts is the first TE off the board in my mock, but I'm a bigger fan of Freiermuth. The difference between the two is that Pitts is a bigger playmaking threat in the passing game, but Freiermuth isn't too far behind. The most significant difference is that Freiermuth isn't just a good blocker, but he enjoys blocking too. It's evident when watching him play.

Round 1 - Pick 21 Samuel Cosmi OL Texas • Soph • 6'7" / 300 lbs Not all that dissimilar to Walker Little in that there's room for improvement. Played right tackle for a year at Texas before moving to left tackle in 2019. Not sure which side he ends up playing in the NFL.

Round 1 - Pick 22 Caleb Farley DB Virginia Tech • Soph • 6'2" / 207 lbs Farley is one of my favorite corners in the country. I don't think he'll be on top of most boards simply because he lacks the overall ability and polish of guys like Wade and Surtain, but the dude just makes plays. Actually, I suppose the best way to say it is he stops offenses from making plays.

Round 1 - Pick 23 Tanner Morgan QB Minnesota • Soph • 6'2" / 215 lbs I love Tanner Morgan. I don't know if he's tall enough for Bruce Arians, but everything else about him reminds me of an Arians kind of QB. He has great accuracy pushing the ball down the field.

Round 1 - Pick 24 Xavier Thomas DE Clemson • Soph • 6'2" / 265 lbs Based on pure ability, Thomas has a real chance of becoming The Elite Pass Rusher of this class. The problem is he didn't show it often enough during the 2020 season at Clemson. How he performs in 2021 will dictate where he goes in the draft, but somebody is going to fall in love with what he can be.

Round 1 - Pick 25 Jamie Newman QB Georgia • Jr • 6'4" / 230 lbs Newman strikes me as the Jordan Love of 2021. There are a lot of things about him teams will love, and they might overlook some of the glaring weaknesses. His accuracy is an issue, and if he can show improvement upon it with Georgia in 2021, he could end up as a top-10 pick. As of now, there's a lot more projection than production here.

Round 1 - Pick 26 Paulson Adebo CB Stanford • Jr • 6'1" / 190 lbs Adebo was originally a wide receiver before moving to the defensive side. That shows up in his playmaking ability on the ball, but at times it shows up in his lack of polish as well. Of course, that's what makes him so enticing, because he's already terrific despite the overall lack of experience!

Round 1 - Pick 27 Eric Stokes DB Georgia • Soph • 6'1" / 185 lbs Stokes is unlikely to be burned deep very often as he has tremendous speed. That helps him a lot in defense, though he's not very big. As a result, big, physical receivers can sometimes have their way with him.

Round 1 - Pick 28 Aidan Hutchinson DL Michigan • Soph • 6'6" / 278 lbs Hutchinson showed a knack for getting in the backfield last season, and is one of the more enticing edge rushers to watch in this upcoming class. I don't think he is a top-10 kind of prospect, but he strikes me as a high-floor guy.

Round 1 - Pick 29 Nick Bolton LB Missouri • Soph • 6'0" / 235 lbs The best LB in the country you've probably never heard of. He's a willing and solid tackler who shines his brightest in pass coverage.

Round 1 - Pick 30 Carlos Basham Jr. EDGE Wake Forest • Jr • 6'5" / 275 lbs If Basham can show more consistency as a complete defender in 2021, he can end up as a first-round pick. I have him here simply because he's a productive pass-rusher, and that's always valued.

Round 1 - Pick 31 Richard LeCounte DB Georgia • Jr • 5'11" / 190 lbs Physically talented and also incredibly smart. The former five-star recruit seems to know where the ball is going before the QB sometimes does. Not sure he'll ever be a playmaker in the box due to his size (the effort isn't a question, however), but as a free safety roaming on the back end, he could be a Pro Bowler.

Round 1 - Pick 32 Wyatt Davis OL Ohio State • Soph • 6'4" / 313 lbs How boring will it be if the Chiefs draft a guard? Davis would be tremendous value for the Chiefs here. And I'm sure Andy Reid can figure out a way to use him as a receiver too. Just for fun.

[Formula 21]

2021 NFL Mock Draft: Jaguars select Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, Bengals get one of the best offensive tackle prospects of the PFF era

By Michael Renner, PFF
Apr 30, 2020

With the 2020 NFL Draft now in the books, it’s time for me to turn my attention to a year from now. The NFL recently announced that the 2021 draft will take place in Cleveland, Ohio, from April 29-May 1. And while you might not believe me, I couldn’t be more excited about it.
While the team-fits part of this 2021 NFL mock draft is guesswork at best, this is more an exercise in where we see these prospects at the moment, with positional value not taken into account in the way it usually would be at PFF. The draft order is based on the current Super Bowl gambling odds.


1. Jacksonville Jaguars — QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

I know everyone is saying that Justin Fields made up ground on Lawrence last season, but something drastic would have to change for Lawrence not to be the No. 1 pick. He’s earned grades of 90.7 and 91.0 in his first two seasons and has elite physical tools for the position.

2. Washington Redskins — QB Justin Fields, Ohio State

Fields started last season like a house on fire but showed some flaws as the season wore on. Still, his performance was every bit elite as he earned a 91.5 overall grade. He is accurate at all levels of the field and is a legit threat with his legs.

3. Cincinnati Bengals — OT Penei Sewell, Oregon

The use of the term “generational” has gotten out of control. That being said, Sewell is still a generational tackle prospect. He’ll likely be the best offensive tackle prospect since at least Jake Long, if not Orlando Pace. He already dominated college football with an FBS-high 95.8 overall grade as a true sophomore — his blend of power, technique and athleticism is scary.

4. Miami Dolphins — EDGE Greg Rousseau, Miami (FL)

Rousseau has almost comical physical tools — it’s as if someone built the ideal edge defender body and then said “more.” He’s listed at 6-foot-7 and 253 pounds with long arms, and he racked up 16 sacks as a redshirt freshman last season. The Miami defensive end still has a ways to go technically, though, as his 76.2 overall grade didn’t quite match that sack total.

5. Carolina Panthers — LB Micah Parsons, Penn State

Parsons is already elite when it comes to making actual linebacker reads, which is an ability that many scouts worried about when it came to Isaiah Simmons’ evaluation. Parsons led the nation with a 94.8 run-defense grade as a sophomore. To play like a grown man at his age is special.

6. New York Jets — WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU

Speaking of grown men, Chase looked more like a redshirt senior than a true sophomore last year with the way he physically overpowered cornerbacks in the SEC. His 24 deep catches were eight more than the next closest receiver in the country.

7. New York Giants — Edge Xavier Thomas, Clemson

We were expecting big things from Thomas heading into his sophomore year, but they never quite came to fruition. After racking up 26 pressures on 150 pass-rushing snaps as a freshman, Thomas had the exact same amount on 96 more pass-rushes as a sophomore. That talent he showed as a freshman didn’t disappear, though.

8. Detroit Lions — WR Rondale Moore, Purdue

In another loaded receiver class, Moore is the single most electric player of the bunch. As a true freshman in 2018, he led the entire country with 37 broken tackles. He had 367 yards through the first three games of last season before going down with a knee injury. With everyone looking for the next Tyreek Hill in the 2020 NFL Draft, Moore is the closest thing I saw in college football last year.

9. Las Vegas Raiders — DI Marvin Wilson, FSU

Wilson was on pace for a monster junior campaign before breaking his hand against Miami and going down for the year. He could have been a fringe first-rounder had he declared, but he returned in hopes of a Derrick Brown-esque stock increase. Wilson earned a 90.9 pass-rushing grade on the season and looks like a complete modern nose tackle.

10. Miami Dolphins — TE Kyle Pitts, Florida

Pitts is more of a jumbo wide receiver than actual tight end, at 6-foot-6 and 240 pounds. I’d be scared if that’s what he checks in at during the combine, but that’s what he was listed at last season when he was only 18 (!) years of age to start the year. He moves unlike any other tight end in the country and led the Gators with 649 receiving yards last year.

11. Arizona Cardinals — CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech

The first cornerback off the board? Farley has those kinds of physical tools. Listed at 6-foot-2, 207 pounds, Farley has the kind of size NFL evaluators love to see at the position. He also has the production we love, with a 90.3 coverage grade last year and a 26.8 passer rating allowed.



12. Los Angeles Chargers — OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama

Leatherwood would have been among the top tackles in last year’s class had he declared, but he chose to return to Alabama. The way we saw certain tackles get pushed down, that could be the right decision with a big senior year. Leatherwood actually outperformed Jedrick Wills Jr. in pass protection last year with an 80.0 pass-blocking grade at only 10 pressures allowed all season.



13. Denver Broncos — CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State

We’ll see how Wade’s transition from full-time slot to outside cornerback goes. He has all the physical tools to get it done, but we’ve seen players like Minkah Fitzpatrick struggle to do both in the past.

14. Atlanta Falcons — WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama

It’s easy to see why Smith returned to the Crimson Tide despite a monster junior campaign that saw him rack up 1,256 yards. Listed at 6-foot-1, 175 pounds, Smith needs to put some serious muscle on his frame to get selected early next year. Even at that weight, he attacks the ball in the air far better than you’d expect, going 7-for-12 on contested catches last season.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars — OT Walker Little, Stanford

Little had cleaned up the hitch in his kick-slide last year against Northwestern and looked poised for a big year before going down with an injury for the season. He’s got the physical tools to be a complete tackle in the league.

16. Cleveland Browns — WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama

Waddle hasn’t played much the past two seasons — only 729 snaps over that span — but he’s produced whenever he has been thrust in. On 40 targets last season, Waddle averaged 12.2 yards after the catch per reception and had a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeted. He’s got NFL-level juice.

17. Chicago Bears — QB Trey Lance, NDSU

There’s the sticker shock of Lance’s 28-0 touchdown to interception ratio that will stick in people’s minds, but Lance is still a tier below Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields at this point. A big reason for that number is that Lance averaged an incredibly low 18 passing attempts a game last season. However, he’s got the easy arm talent and earned an 87.5 passing grade as a redshirt freshman.

18. Tennessee Titans — Edge Jayson Oweh, Penn State

Oweh is still a projection at this point, as he was a part-time player as a true sophomore in 2019. The defensive end played only 332 snaps but earned an 81.8 pass-rushing grade that was on par with Yetur Gross-Matos.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers — IOL Trey Smith, Tennessee

Smith has been plagued by blood clots in his lungs, limiting his development since a fantastic freshman year and putting his playing career in jeopardy. We finally started to see him come on towards the end of last year, though, when he was one of the highest-graded guards over the second half of the season.

20. Minnesota Vikings — DI Christian Barmore, Alabama

There’s a good chance Barmore ends up even higher than this. We barely got to see him until Alabam’s final five games of last year, and then he averaged three pressures a game over that span. On 269 snaps, Barmore earned an 87.8 overall grade for the season.

21. Indianapolis Colts — TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State

Freiermuth has prototypical-tight end size at 6-foot-5 and 259 pounds. While the Gronk comparisons are a little rich for me, that’s the type of tight end you’re getting in Freiermuth at least. He’s a jumbo route-runner who defenders just bounce off. He broke nine tackles on 43 catches last season.

22. Buffalo Bills — CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama

Surtain is another long Alabama corner at 6-foot-2 and 203 pounds. He’s been starting ever since he was a true freshman in 2018, and this past year allowed only 28 catches for 301 yards on 49 targets. If he’s anything like his father — a longtime Dolphins corner — he’ll be well worth this pick.

23. Green Bay Packers — LB Dylan Moses, Alabama

If Moses hadn’t torn his ACL last season, we probably would have seen him come off the board in this range last week. He’s explosive as can be, though we’d like to see a few more plays on the ball in coverage as he doesn’t have a single pass breakup in his career so far.

24. Dallas Cowboys — TE Brevin Jordan, Miami (FL)

Jordan looks next in the long line of Miami tight ends. As a true freshman, he caught 32 balls for 287 yards and broke seven tackles along the way. He followed that up with 35 catches for 495 yards and five broken tackles last year. He has the speed to be a real downfield threat at the position.

25. Seattle Seahawks — OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas

Cosmi has posted back-to-back seasons with terrific pass protection grades at both right and left tackle for the Longhorns. This past season on the left side, he allowed only 14 pressures on 595 pass-blocking snaps. He needs to get a bit stronger and is likely why he returned to school for his redshirt junior season.

26. New England Patriots — EDGE/LB Chris Rumph, Duke

I’m not sure exactly where Rumph plays, but he fits the Patriots’ mold of athletic, do-it-all front-seven players. He had an absurd 31.6% pass-rush win rate for the Blue Devils last season — the highest in the country — as he played a similarly versatile role in their defense.

27. Philadelphia Eagles — IOL Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma

Humphrey struggled mightily with Baylor nose tackle Bravvion Roy’s power in the Big 12 title game, and it’s likely a big reason why he returned to Norman. That said, we’ve seen him play excellent football ever since he earned a 78.9 overall grade as a redshirt freshman for the Sooners in 2018.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Edge Carlos Basham, Wake Forest

Basham is a force to be reckoned with. His combination of size (6-foot-5, 275 pounds) and explosiveness will have NFL evaluators drooling over what he could become in the NFL. To date, though, Basham is defined more by his inconsistency as he alternated between dominant games and disappearing acts.

29. New Orleans Saints — Edge Quincy Roche, Miami (FL)

You’ll probably know him as the other Miami edge defender this fall. Roche transferred in from Temple where he was pretty much unblockable for the Owls in 2019. His 68 pressures are the most of any returning player in the country, as is his 93.3 pass-rushing grade. He needs to add some muscle to his frame, but he has the pass-rushing moves down pat.

30. Baltimore Ravens — S Jevon Holland, Oregon

You can’t really coach instincts, and that’s why it’s a good thing that Holland clearly already has them. He’s picked off nine passes and broken up 11 more in two seasons with the Ducks between safety and slot corner. His playmaking ability should be coveted in pretty much any defense, but he’d match especially well with the Ravens.

31. San Francisco 49ers — IOL Wyatt Davis, Ohio State

Davis already caught our eye as a redshirt sophomore when he didn’t allow a single sack or hit all season in his first year as a starter. While he likely would have been a Day 2 pick had he declared, he has all the physical tools to sneak into the first round with a big 2020.

32. Kansas City Chiefs — WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC

St. Brown got lost in the shuffle of a loaded USC receiving corps last season, but he was arguably the most complete of the bunch. At 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds, he’s a talented route-runner who can win at all levels of the field. He broke 18 tackles on 77 catches, and after a slow start, he averaged over 100 yards a game over his final eight games.

[Formula 21]

Does Belicheat tank the season so he can get Trevor Lawrence? Stay tuned.

[beachcomber]

QB Trey Lance
RB Kylin Hill
OG Trey Smith, Deonte Brown
OC Ryan McCollum

NT Tyler Shelvin
DL Jay Tufele, LaBryan Ray
ILB Dylan Moses
SS Hamsah Nasirildeen
CB Eric Stokes

[beachcomber]

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https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

[Formula 21]

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https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

Sewell is a dream come true.

[beachcomber]

TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE ONE PICK

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS


Projected compensatory pick: Round 3.
Key free-agent losses:Philip Rivers (Colts), Melvin Gordon (Broncos).
Key free-agent additions: Brian Bulaga (Packers), Chris Harris Jr. (Broncos).
Comp-pick analysis: This is a very easy one to figure, with the Chargers losing four qualifying free agents and adding three. Rivers' big one-year contract was nowhere near being canceled out by the deals of Bulaga or Harris, and the Chargers are locked and loaded for a third-round comp selection.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-draft-compensatory-pick-projections-for-every-team-0ap3000001112252

[beachcomber]

a second third rounder could be a very valuable selection w/names like DL LaBryan Ray, OG Deonte Brown, CB Eric Stokes, and NT Tyler Shelvin still getting love that low atm....

my question is can team Tommy John find a way to build on that extra pick and get a coupla few more to move the number of selections to double figures for the next go 'round ?? !!

w/Sewell off the board, first round names that catch my eye are QB Trey Lance, DT Jay Tufele, WR Jaylen Waddle, OG Trey Smith, and SS Hamsah Nasirildeen.

[beachcomber]

Rob Rang doing (early) work.... https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/news/first-take-top-cornerbacks-for-the-2021-nfl-draft

[beachcomber]

1) QB Trey Lance
2) OG Trey Smith, NT Tyler Shelvin, SS Hamsah Nasirildeen, ILB Palaei Gaoteote IV
3) OG Deonte Brown, CB Eric Stokes, 3T Jay Tufele, ILB Dylan Moses
C) RB Kylin Hill
4) DE LaBryan Ray, WIL Merlin Robertson
5) NT Tuli Letligasenoa, LB Kuony Deng, TE Cade Otton
6) OT Syrus Tuitele, OT Daniel Faalele
7) WR Brandon Smith
U) OC Ryan McCollum, WIL Zane Zandier

[Boltsfan70]

I am on the Micah Parsons Band wagon

[Fleet]

My initial needs are likely OT/CB early.