Mission: Predict Busts in Top 12

[AK47]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/

Looking back at the last 5 drafts, specifically the top 12 prospects in the last 5 drafts, there's no less then 4 busts.

Let us say that Busts = not a starter or not in the NFL. Think about this. NFL organizations, countless film and interviews done by scouts and coaches, media shows, Mel Kiper, ect. all felt these top 12 picks are locks to be starters not to mention franchise players.

Your Mission should you accept. Predict 4 busts in the 2021's top 12 picks.

- Name of player prospect
- Name of team/when selected
- The bust scenario

Bonus: Predict the #13 pick and describe how the Chargers found the RIGHT player.

[DragonIce]

I'll play, though too late at night to meet all the rules. Busts usually happen due to injury/health, off-field or attitude, bad situation with losing team, or unreasonable expectation.

Bust #1 - Zach Wilson. He's light-framed and likes to throw crazy contorted passes. He destroys his shoulder or gets beat up in NY.
Bust #2 - Micah Parsons. Promising rookie season then has major off-field melt-down in following offseason. Suspended for year.
Bust #3 - Patrick Surtain. He's ok, but many view as bust. Just not fast/athletic enough for top-12 selection. Bust w/fans but is "OK"
Bust #4 - Trey Lance. Just not ready and not accurate enough to see field in first two seasons. Is mediocre when sees field. Sees some success w/2nd team after bust w/team that drafts him.

I'm not really down on these prospects...just guessing what might sabatoge some of these guys.

[AK47]

I'll play, though too late at night to meet all the rules. Busts usually happen due to injury/health, off-field or attitude, bad situation with losing team, or unreasonable expectation.

Bust #1 - Zach Wilson. He's light-framed and likes to throw crazy contorted passes. He destroys his shoulder or gets beat up in NY.
Bust #2 - Micah Parsons. Promising rookie season then has major off-field melt-down in following offseason. Suspended for year.
Bust #3 - Patrick Surtain. He's ok, but many view as bust. Just not fast/athletic enough for top-12 selection. Bust w/fans but is "OK"
Bust #4 - Trey Lance. Just not ready and not accurate enough to see field in first two seasons. Is mediocre when sees field. Sees some success w/2nd team after bust w/team that drafts him.

I'm not really down on these prospects...just guessing what might sabatoge some of these guys.

Man Dragon, you should write a pilot for a NFL TV series! How the season pans out for several players.


Micah Parsons- This year's Isiah Simmons? I think the off the field issues may make him the prototypical thug/pro-bowler lol. Talented on the field, not so much off.

Trey Lance- I can see that situation pan out. QBs drafted this high usually get a second chance elsewhere should they show flashes.

Zach Wilson- His throwing motion reminds me of Rogers. Not sure about the o-line situation in NY but has he faced NFL caliber pass rushes? The game speed might get him in trouble. Like Mike Tyson said everybody's got a plan till' they get hit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=levu8_I9_pk

[DragonIce]

Man Dragon, you should write a pilot for a NFL TV series! How the season pans out for several players.


Micah Parsons- This year's Isiah Simmons? I think the off the field issues may make him the prototypical thug/pro-bowler lol. Talented on the field, not so much off.

Trey Lance- I can see that situation pan out. QBs drafted this high usually get a second chance elsewhere should they show flashes.

Zach Wilson- His throwing motion reminds me of Rogers. Not sure about the o-line situation in NY but has he faced NFL caliber pass rushes? The game speed might get him in trouble. Like Mike Tyson said everybody's got a plan till' they get hit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=levu8_I9_pk

If it's a TV series...u just nailed episode 2...or certainly provided keen breakdown.

Biggest worry w/Wilson has to be injuries. Could easily wreck his career. Reading up on Parson's "hazing" incident sure would scare me away. Wouldn't choose to put myself -- or anyone else -- near him. More going on there than I'd want to deal w/. Football folks make way too many excuses for shit.

[beachcomber]

on avg, the first round provides around a dozen or so busts/disappointments.... these guys would be on my "do not draft" list for the upcoming stanza:

Jaylen Waddle * undersized, injury prone risk
Justin Fields * unfortunately the OSU lineage is one that does not favor him exactly running the NFL table
Caleb Farley * injury concerns should take him off your board
Christian Darrisaw * yes, the intangibles can prove to mitigate all the natural talent in the world
Kwity Paye * gonna go Ingram lite on yah if you're not careful
DeVonta Smith * guaranteed banged up and in the shop more oft than not
Gregory Rousseau * long and lanky that don't bend 'round the edge
Landon Dickerson * prolly mighty tempting to Pack fans, and history does repeat
Spencer Brown * media darling overdraft candidate.... don't bite on the cheese

these are the guys that provide (really) good value, ie/aka will well outperform their draft slotting

Kadarius Toney * not long ago eye had saged Courtland Sutton as someone that might have some Jerry Rice 2.0 to his game, and.... just sayin'
Trey Lance * dude has raw talent that can and likely will be developed in the pros
Zaven Collins * people are (way) underestimating what the loss of Denzel Perryman will mean to this D.... we need this guy
Teven Jenkins * if we end up drafting for need @the OT, this guy is prolly our best bet, and not as an LT, but as Bulaga's successor
Javonte Williams * LT lite ??
Eric Stokes * could well be the best cover corner outta this draft class
Hamsah Nasirildeen * hedges bets all over the defensive backfield, and intangibles to boot
Trey Smith * Marcus McNeill 2.0 and perfect fit for the Chargers wheelhouse
Josh Ball * don't know nuthin' 'bout this guy, and.... the geiger counter is bleepin'

trade down pls,

[AK47]

on avg, the first round provides around a dozen or so busts/disappointments.... these guys would be on my "do not draft" list for the upcoming stanza:

Jaylen Waddle * undersized, injury prone risk
Justin Fields * unfortunately the OSU lineage is one that does not favor him exactly running the NFL table
Caleb Farley * injury concerns should take him off your board
Christian Darrisaw * yes, the intangibles can prove to mitigate all the natural talent in the world
Kwity Paye * gonna go Ingram lite on yah if you're not careful
DeVonta Smith * guaranteed banged up and in the shop more oft than not
Gregory Rousseau * long and lanky that don't bend 'round the edge
Landon Dickerson * prolly mighty tempting to Pack fans, and history does repeat
Spencer Brown * media darling overdraft candidate.... don't bite on the cheese

these are the guys that provide (really) good value, ie/aka will well outperform their draft slotting

Kadarius Toney * not long ago eye had saged Courtland Sutton as someone that might have some Jerry Rice 2.0 to his game, and.... just sayin'
Trey Lance * dude has raw talent that can and likely will be developed in the pros
Zaven Collins * people are (way) underestimating what the loss of Denzel Perryman will mean to this D.... we need this guy
Teven Jenkins * if we end up drafting for need @the OT, this guy is prolly our best bet, and not as an LT, but as Bulaga's successor
Javonte Williams * LT lite ??
Eric Stokes * could well be the best cover corner outta this draft class
Hamsah Nasirildeen * hedges bets all over the defensive backfield, and intangibles to boot
Trey Smith * Marcus McNeill 2.0 and perfect fit for the Chargers wheelhouse
Josh Ball * don't know nuthin' 'bout this guy, and.... the geiger counter is bleepin'

trade down pls,

Kwity Paye does remind me of a "bigger" Ingram but just like Ingram is a bit of a tweener. A tad too big/slow to be an Edge player and a tad small to play DE in the NFL. Ingram dropped down 20lbs and went the speed route to avoid being a bust.

Caleb Farley may end up being Verrett 2.0 for TT?

Jaylen Waddle being 180lbs + our WR's take big hits seemingly every game. Durability is a concern for me as well.

Gregory Rousseau with an okay combine and many high motor sacks in college. I don't see him in the top 12 so should be decent value in the mid-late 1st.

DeVonta Smith like Waddle is another 180lb guy. I like he has a 6-1 frame versus 5-10 though.

[MasterOfPuppets]

DeVonta Smith: too small

Of topic; I want the Chargers to draft Nasirildeen just to have 2 safeties named Nasir Adderley and Nasirildeen

[Topcat]

DeVonta Smith: too small

Of topic; I want the Chargers to draft Nasirildeen just to have 2 safeties named Nasir Adderley and Nasirildeen

Nasir meaning in Arabic: "One who gives victory."

https://www.definitions.net/definition/Nasir

[21&500]

Trevor Lawrence

No chip

[DragonIce]

on avg, the first round provides around a dozen or so busts/disappointments.... these guys would be on my "do not draft" list for the upcoming stanza:

Jaylen Waddle * undersized, injury prone risk
Justin Fields * unfortunately the OSU lineage is one that does not favor him exactly running the NFL table
Caleb Farley * injury concerns should take him off your board
Christian Darrisaw * yes, the intangibles can prove to mitigate all the natural talent in the world
Kwity Paye * gonna go Ingram lite on yah if you're not careful
DeVonta Smith * guaranteed banged up and in the shop more oft than not
Gregory Rousseau * long and lanky that don't bend 'round the edge
Landon Dickerson * prolly mighty tempting to Pack fans, and history does repeat
Spencer Brown * media darling overdraft candidate.... don't bite on the cheese

these are the guys that provide (really) good value, ie/aka will well outperform their draft slotting

Kadarius Toney * not long ago eye had saged Courtland Sutton as someone that might have some Jerry Rice 2.0 to his game, and.... just sayin'
Trey Lance * dude has raw talent that can and likely will be developed in the pros
Zaven Collins * people are (way) underestimating what the loss of Denzel Perryman will mean to this D.... we need this guy
Teven Jenkins * if we end up drafting for need @the OT, this guy is prolly our best bet, and not as an LT, but as Bulaga's successor
Javonte Williams * LT lite ??
Eric Stokes * could well be the best cover corner outta this draft class
Hamsah Nasirildeen * hedges bets all over the defensive backfield, and intangibles to boot
Trey Smith * Marcus McNeill 2.0 and perfect fit for the Chargers wheelhouse
Josh Ball * don't know nuthin' 'bout this guy, and.... the geiger counter is bleepin'

trade down pls,

I like your post better than mine, bro.

I suspect Gregory Rousseau and his "16 sacks" will crash and burn in the NFL. Most all of his "sacks" were weird or fake (5 second sac kind of thing). Little surprise from me if Rousseau never starts a game for any team in the NFL. He seemed awkward as hell in pro day. My call: he'd be a third round flyer if you had extra picks. As for Darrisaw, when I see mediots mock him to the Chargers at #13, I do tend to duck or wince. I don't see a player consistently eager to battle. Don't want that kind of player on my team.

This draft will see a lot of busts across league. Too many players that are unproven, not ripe, or flat weak.