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  • Formula 21
    The Future is Now
    • Jun 2013
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    NFL Combine

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    NFL combine: Data suggests broad jump might be best indicator of running back success


    Updated 7:36 AM; Posted 7:28 AM By Aaron Kasinitz
    akasinitz@pennlive.com
    Joique Bell ran his 40-yard dash slower than average at the 2010 NFL Scouting Combine, which made it difficult for a running back from Division II Wayne State to stand out among the best professional prospects at his position. But there was one workout Bell thrived in: His 120-inch broad jump was a few notches better than the median mark.
    After Bell went undrafted and bounced around a few practice squads, he wound up sticking with the Detroit Lions and built a solid career. He piled up nearly 3,900 career yards from scrimmage, 23 touchdowns and spent five seasons in the NFL.
    Bell's ascent might hint at something -- not just about his personal perseverance, but also about the importance of the broad jump, according to a PennLive data analysis.

    The NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis this week will generate a lot of buzz for a lot of reasons, but it's often difficult to decipher how the performances of prospects will relate to future success. Running backs are no different from other positions. NFL evaluators face a tall task when they weigh college production, personal interviews and combine numbers to form a ranking of draftable ball carriers.
    But a PennLive data analysis of players at NFL combines from 2009 to '13 offered an interesting look at how workouts relate to productivity in the league. While there's no clear-cut way to determine whether a running back prospect will flop or soar in the professional ranks, the broad jump was the best indicator of NFL readiness during that time period.


    There was roughly a 23.7 percent correlation between broad jump and career yardage for running backs who participated in the combine from 2009 to '13, and the relationship strengthened between the two slightly when we used NFL seasons played as the variable to determine success.
    In other words, players with longer broad jumps on average have gained more yards and stayed in the league for more seasons.
    The median broad jump during the five-year span we studied was 118 inches. Players who surpassed that mark have gained an average of 1,296.8 rushing yards in their careers and played an averaged of 3.7 years in the league. That's compared to an average of 549.8 career yards and 2.4 seasons for those whose broad jumps fell short of the 118-inch mark.

    As you can see from the graph, broad jump -- an exercise in which a player leaps off two feet as far as he can to test explosiveness -- isn't the be all end all indicator for running back success, but there is a clear trend line.
    DeMarco Murray is another player whose strong broad jump portended a solid career. He soared 124 inches on his broad jump in 2011 and has racked up 7,174 rushing yards since entering the NFL as a third-round pick. But some players with impressive broad jumps (like Montario Hardesty, whom the Browns drafted in the second round in 2010 after his 124 inch broad jump) failed to find NFL prominence.


    Still, the broad jump was the only combine workout with statistically significant correlation to career rushing yards and NFL seasons for players drafted from 2009 to '13. Other combine workouts, like the 40-yard dash, didn't have strong relationships to NFL success.

    Notice how this scatter plot lacks a clearly-defined trend line. There is a slight relationship here, because players with a 40-yard dash of less than 4.7 seconds rarely experienced NFL success, but for those who finished the dash anywhere between 4.3 and 4.65 seconds, there's no distinct correlation between time and career yards. (Note: The top dot on that graph represents Bills running back LeSean McCoy, who ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash and has gained 10,092 rushing yards in the NFL).
    Analysts and fans and even teams can overblow the importance of NFL combine events. But from 2009 to '13 there was evidence to suggest running backs' broad jumps were worth at least a bit of out attention.
    Below is a chart that displays some more of our data collection on runnings backs at the combine during that time span.

    Last edited by Formula 21; 02-28-2018, 03:30 PM.
    Now, if you excuse me, I have some Charger memories to suppress.
    The Wasted Decade is done.
    Build Back Better.
  • chargerkdb
    Charger Fan
    • Jun 2013
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    #2
    Last edited by chargerkdb; 02-28-2018, 03:40 PM.

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    • Formula 21
      The Future is Now
      • Jun 2013
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      #3
      Melvin Gordon Broad Jump 126", combine top performer
      Austin Ekeler 128" (Would have been 3rd best at combine)
      Brandon Oiver 117"
      Darren Sproles 105"
      LT 124"
      AP 127"
      LeVeon Bell 118"
      Now, if you excuse me, I have some Charger memories to suppress.
      The Wasted Decade is done.
      Build Back Better.

      Comment

      • Stinky Wizzleteats+
        Grammar Police
        • Jun 2013
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        #4
        I still like Kirwans explosive chart. Broad jump + bench press + Vertical iirc.
        Go Rivers!

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        • Formula 21
          The Future is Now
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          #5
          Now, if you excuse me, I have some Charger memories to suppress.
          The Wasted Decade is done.
          Build Back Better.

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          • WindsorUK
            Registered Charger Fan
            • Jul 2013
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            #6
            Fortunes will be made and lost over the next 4 days.

            Guys who look good in their underwear will shoot up the draft boards.

            Those mock draft boards will get turned upside down.

            Yet, the only thing that matters is TT getting it right early. Plenty of good football players there at 17 and around 50.
            He's gotta bring in guys that contribute from day 1.

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            • WindsorUK
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              • Jul 2013
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              #7
              Billy Price tore a pec during his bench press. Likely out at least 4 months. He'll drop....maybe far enough for us to grab him with a third?
              Orlando Brown runs a 5.86 40 and only gets 14 reps on the bench. Another player taking a precipitous drop down the draft boards.

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              • Rugger05
                Administrator
                • Jun 2013
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                #8
                Originally posted by WindsorUK View Post
                Billy Price tore a pec during his bench press. Likely out at least 4 months. He'll drop....maybe far enough for us to grab him with a third?
                Orlando Brown runs a 5.86 40 and only gets 14 reps on the bench. Another player taking a precipitous drop down the draft boards.
                Sucks for Price, but I would love to take him in the 3rd. I read somewhere the Chargers are thinking about moving Fenney to C

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                • Formula 21
                  The Future is Now
                  • Jun 2013
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                  #9
                  Brown measured 6-foot-7 7/8 and 345 pounds at the combine weigh-in. He struggled with weight for much of his life until he was able to carry roughly 350 pounds well enough to be one of the top left tackles in the Big 12 Conference. He entered the combine projected as a first-round pick by NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein, but the arrow is pointing down for him in Indianapolis.


                  another 2nd rounder.
                  Now, if you excuse me, I have some Charger memories to suppress.
                  The Wasted Decade is done.
                  Build Back Better.

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                  • Formula 21
                    The Future is Now
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                    #10
                    Todd McShay's guide to NFL combine drills: Everything you need to know

                    The drills at the NFL combine boil down to two questions: Do the measurables mesh with the film? And which players trigger red flags with their results? From the 40-yard dash to the bench press, here are the numbers to know for each drill.
                    Now, if you excuse me, I have some Charger memories to suppress.
                    The Wasted Decade is done.
                    Build Back Better.

                    Comment


                    • WindsorUK
                      WindsorUK commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Are you watching the combine live, F21?
                  • WindsorUK
                    Registered Charger Fan
                    • Jul 2013
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                    #11
                    Anybody have an info on the UTEP guard Hernandez? Big, strong, athletic....how is he during an actual game?
                    Last edited by WindsorUK; 03-02-2018, 11:04 AM.

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                    • bonehead
                      Undrafted
                      • Jul 2013
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                      #12
                      Last edited by bonehead; 03-02-2018, 12:11 PM.
                      Forget it Donny you're out of your element

                      Shut the fuck up Donny

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                      • blueman
                        blueman commented
                        Editing a comment
                        I really want Bo, just a bruising runner.
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