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NFL combine: Data suggests broad jump might be best indicator of running back success
Updated 7:36 AM; Posted 7:28 AM By Aaron Kasinitz
akasinitz@pennlive.com
Joique Bell ran his 40-yard dash slower than average at the 2010 NFL Scouting Combine, which made it difficult for a running back from Division II Wayne State to stand out among the best professional prospects at his position. But there was one workout Bell thrived in: His 120-inch broad jump was a few notches better than the median mark.
After Bell went undrafted and bounced around a few practice squads, he wound up sticking with the Detroit Lions and built a solid career. He piled up nearly 3,900 career yards from scrimmage, 23 touchdowns and spent five seasons in the NFL.
Bell's ascent might hint at something -- not just about his personal perseverance, but also about the importance of the broad jump, according to a PennLive data analysis.
The NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis this week will generate a lot of buzz for a lot of reasons, but it's often difficult to decipher how the performances of prospects will relate to future success. Running backs are no different from other positions. NFL evaluators face a tall task when they weigh college production, personal interviews and combine numbers to form a ranking of draftable ball carriers.
But a PennLive data analysis of players at NFL combines from 2009 to '13 offered an interesting look at how workouts relate to productivity in the league. While there's no clear-cut way to determine whether a running back prospect will flop or soar in the professional ranks, the broad jump was the best indicator of NFL readiness during that time period.
There was roughly a 23.7 percent correlation between broad jump and career yardage for running backs who participated in the combine from 2009 to '13, and the relationship strengthened between the two slightly when we used NFL seasons played as the variable to determine success.
In other words, players with longer broad jumps on average have gained more yards and stayed in the league for more seasons.
The median broad jump during the five-year span we studied was 118 inches. Players who surpassed that mark have gained an average of 1,296.8 rushing yards in their careers and played an averaged of 3.7 years in the league. That's compared to an average of 549.8 career yards and 2.4 seasons for those whose broad jumps fell short of the 118-inch mark.
As you can see from the graph, broad jump -- an exercise in which a player leaps off two feet as far as he can to test explosiveness -- isn't the be all end all indicator for running back success, but there is a clear trend line.
DeMarco Murray is another player whose strong broad jump portended a solid career. He soared 124 inches on his broad jump in 2011 and has racked up 7,174 rushing yards since entering the NFL as a third-round pick. But some players with impressive broad jumps (like Montario Hardesty, whom the Browns drafted in the second round in 2010 after his 124 inch broad jump) failed to find NFL prominence.
Still, the broad jump was the only combine workout with statistically significant correlation to career rushing yards and NFL seasons for players drafted from 2009 to '13. Other combine workouts, like the 40-yard dash, didn't have strong relationships to NFL success.
Notice how this scatter plot lacks a clearly-defined trend line. There is a slight relationship here, because players with a 40-yard dash of less than 4.7 seconds rarely experienced NFL success, but for those who finished the dash anywhere between 4.3 and 4.65 seconds, there's no distinct correlation between time and career yards. (Note: The top dot on that graph represents Bills running back LeSean McCoy, who ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash and has gained 10,092 rushing yards in the NFL).
Analysts and fans and even teams can overblow the importance of NFL combine events. But from 2009 to '13 there was evidence to suggest running backs' broad jumps were worth at least a bit of out attention.
Below is a chart that displays some more of our data collection on runnings backs at the combine during that time span.
NFL combine: Data suggests broad jump might be best indicator of running back success
Updated 7:36 AM; Posted 7:28 AM By Aaron Kasinitz
akasinitz@pennlive.com
Joique Bell ran his 40-yard dash slower than average at the 2010 NFL Scouting Combine, which made it difficult for a running back from Division II Wayne State to stand out among the best professional prospects at his position. But there was one workout Bell thrived in: His 120-inch broad jump was a few notches better than the median mark.
After Bell went undrafted and bounced around a few practice squads, he wound up sticking with the Detroit Lions and built a solid career. He piled up nearly 3,900 career yards from scrimmage, 23 touchdowns and spent five seasons in the NFL.
Bell's ascent might hint at something -- not just about his personal perseverance, but also about the importance of the broad jump, according to a PennLive data analysis.
The NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis this week will generate a lot of buzz for a lot of reasons, but it's often difficult to decipher how the performances of prospects will relate to future success. Running backs are no different from other positions. NFL evaluators face a tall task when they weigh college production, personal interviews and combine numbers to form a ranking of draftable ball carriers.
But a PennLive data analysis of players at NFL combines from 2009 to '13 offered an interesting look at how workouts relate to productivity in the league. While there's no clear-cut way to determine whether a running back prospect will flop or soar in the professional ranks, the broad jump was the best indicator of NFL readiness during that time period.
There was roughly a 23.7 percent correlation between broad jump and career yardage for running backs who participated in the combine from 2009 to '13, and the relationship strengthened between the two slightly when we used NFL seasons played as the variable to determine success.
In other words, players with longer broad jumps on average have gained more yards and stayed in the league for more seasons.
The median broad jump during the five-year span we studied was 118 inches. Players who surpassed that mark have gained an average of 1,296.8 rushing yards in their careers and played an averaged of 3.7 years in the league. That's compared to an average of 549.8 career yards and 2.4 seasons for those whose broad jumps fell short of the 118-inch mark.
As you can see from the graph, broad jump -- an exercise in which a player leaps off two feet as far as he can to test explosiveness -- isn't the be all end all indicator for running back success, but there is a clear trend line.
DeMarco Murray is another player whose strong broad jump portended a solid career. He soared 124 inches on his broad jump in 2011 and has racked up 7,174 rushing yards since entering the NFL as a third-round pick. But some players with impressive broad jumps (like Montario Hardesty, whom the Browns drafted in the second round in 2010 after his 124 inch broad jump) failed to find NFL prominence.
Still, the broad jump was the only combine workout with statistically significant correlation to career rushing yards and NFL seasons for players drafted from 2009 to '13. Other combine workouts, like the 40-yard dash, didn't have strong relationships to NFL success.
Notice how this scatter plot lacks a clearly-defined trend line. There is a slight relationship here, because players with a 40-yard dash of less than 4.7 seconds rarely experienced NFL success, but for those who finished the dash anywhere between 4.3 and 4.65 seconds, there's no distinct correlation between time and career yards. (Note: The top dot on that graph represents Bills running back LeSean McCoy, who ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash and has gained 10,092 rushing yards in the NFL).
Analysts and fans and even teams can overblow the importance of NFL combine events. But from 2009 to '13 there was evidence to suggest running backs' broad jumps were worth at least a bit of out attention.
Below is a chart that displays some more of our data collection on runnings backs at the combine during that time span.
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