Rank the QB Draft prospects

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  • DerekReed98
    replied
    I’m seeing a lot of stats, but stats honestly don’t mean much, they just show the end result. Especially for QB’s. The details are what’s most important. 2 plays that both result in a TD can be completely different. A QB throws a beautiful downfield pass after going through his reads is completely different then a QB that just dumps it off down low or throws a screen that the WR then takes all the way. But both would look the same if you are just looking at the stat line. The biggest issues with stats and a lot of data used is they don’t tell the story at all.

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  • DerekReed98
    replied
    Guys hurts struggles big time with reads. Went too several games this year and have watched every game for many years now. There was WR running wide open that he usually just flat out didn’t see. His time to throw was the most in the entire FBS there’s no excuse not to see Open WR. Especially in coach Riley’s system. This was the deepest skill group OU has ever had and they were pretty much rendered pointless because of hurts. It goes beyond passing as well he struggles with knowing when to pull the ball or not. Also he has fumble issues. His athletic abilities are his defining trait.
    I know the media would make you think he was the apple of OU’s eye, but the majority of OU fan base including former OU players disliked hurts as a player. To the point where they were wanting to give one of the other QB’s a shot and bench Hurts. It was frustrating to watch after having almost a whole decade of good QB play. He single handily almost lost several games. Again tho he has great work ethic and if he switches positions I could see him having a successful career.

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  • DerekReed98
    replied
    Originally posted by C'monchargers View Post
    Personally I always found the argument of Jalen Hurts "Will Run after first read" a bit harsh and with very little leverage against his recent work.

    First off, you don't amass - 3,851 yards which rank 9th in the nation, 32 TD which rank 11th in a 4 way tie with TUA, HERBERT and Sam Ehlinger - when you will take off if your first progression is covered.

    Second, Kyler Murray's last year in Oklahoma threw for 4,361 yards and rushed for 1001 yards. If Kyler has a full year of experience in the system and still rush over 1000 yards, naturally one would assume this Kyler Murray's oklahoma offensive scheme will involve the QB running. Jalen Hurts basically went there to run the exact offense and did it pretty well consider the amount of experience he had or the lack of, in the offense. On top of that his footwork is better. He pivot and align decently with his target on his check down compare to anything he had done prior and he looks stronger, functionally stronger.

    https://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...og?season=2017

    This is game logs for Kyler Murray's first year in Oklahoma, he play sparingly but his pass to run ratio is 3/2, that is almost the same ratio as Jalen Hurts at 1.45~ pass to rush ratio. At this point (Similar in Blocking but not identical to the scheme Baker was in), this system have a large amount of play that involve the QB running if he sees fit. There is a disdain difference between, "A QB choose to run first in a fight or flight" and "A QB is told to run if the option is open".

    Also, this is Jalen's first year playing at Oklahoma, whose to say he won't make similar improvement as Kyler did if he has a second year.

    He really only had run more than he threw in 1 game, which is against that TCU zone that just wrecked the Oklahoma passing game.

    Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.


    TCU is top 7 in holding to opp to 360 passes only on the year, 11th in int with 22, top 8 against passing in yardage. But yet allowed 22 TDs.
    So if you look at Jalen Hurts' Stat in that game, it basically was a well call game to take what was given by the defense. You know its going to be tough to pass against them so they run, and did it well 28 attempts, 173 yards and 2TD with a 6.2 yards avg. Even with a season low 52% completion rate in that game,he still manage to throw 2 TD only 1 int and took the W home.

    I am having a hard time finding the game tape and i rather not just post the link to a highlight to eval. So no tape eval for this game from me.

    PS: One thing Jalen Hurts said a few weeks back caught my ears. He said nothing in Alabama help him to succeed as a QB..... Here is a list of Nick Saban's QB and he was there since 2007

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...a/passing.html

    Yeah I would have to say Nick Saban is more often than not on the miss side as a QB developer. Mind you these are not low class recruit coming out of high school neither. Even in the case of Tua which he is playing well and he showed off his talent; but you have seen very little improvement from year to year. All he did was win, not improve.
    I got be honest with you, I’m born and raised in Oklahoma. So naturally I’m a die hard OU fan. What I tell you is the cold truth and that’s that Jalen is exactly what is haters say he is. In the back half of the season he completely handicapped the offense. Jalen is not a natural QB at all. Not that stats even matter in the 1st place, but most his explosive plays come OU WR core being so explosive. Once teams realized he can’t read defenses the offense stopped being its normal self. He really is one read and run. Great guy tho. Should change positions and succeed.

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  • gzubeck
    replied
    I think the way we look at it is thus...who cares how they rank but who do you think might be available for the chargers as QB. If Herbert is off the board at # 6 then we have to look at drafting either Hurts or Fromm in the second round. Eason has a cannon for an arm but he's not accurate from what I've seen. If Herbert, Hurts, and Fromm are off the board when we have a chance to pick I would just pass on the the rest of the QB's and look for a veteran.

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  • C'monchargers
    replied
    oops, I am trying to edit

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  • C'monchargers
    replied
    Originally posted by like54ninjas View Post

    Your PS is extremely interesting.
    Yeah didn't think about it until i heard him say it, then i thought about Miami dolphins and Joey Harrington...... and the long list of QB under his wing. Tua will improve with better coaching, he has what coaches can't teach, which is a great arm.

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  • like54ninjas
    replied
    Originally posted by C'monchargers View Post

    PS: One thing Jalen Hurts said a few weeks back caught my ears. He said nothing in Alabama help him to succeed as a QB..... Here is a list of Nick Saban's QB and he was there since 2007

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...a/passing.html

    Yeah I would have to say Nick Saban is more often than not on the miss side as a QB developer. Mind you these are not low class recruit coming out of high school neither. Even in the case of Tua which he is playing well and he showed off his talent; but you have seen very little improvement from year to year. All he did was win, not improve.
    Your PS is extremely interesting.

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  • C'monchargers
    replied
    Originally posted by Lone Bolt View Post

    That's awesome...best interview material I have seen on Hurts. Usually he is kinda chillin....playing too cool for school...liked hearing him open up a bit, joke around...and watching his eyes light up when talking Xs and Os...good stuff.
    Yeah it was a pretty basic play but regardless, he handled it well. I like that video because you see the easy route which are the crosses which you see you throw. And you see the "swing" which is an anticipation concept which the ball should be thrown when the pick happens. And he identify the play correctly so kudo. I also want to see him throw that "swing", I want to see him hit that on the regular without being just a tad bit short.

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  • C'monchargers
    replied
    Originally posted by Boltjolt View Post

    Not saying he cant BE a good NFL QB, just that he needs a lot of work.

    Hurts ran the ball 233 times last season (340 pass att). That is Lamar Jackson and Tim Tebow range......2 QBs than ran after their first and seldom second pregressions. All three of those guys have well over over 600 carries to their career,.... Hurts with the least of teh 3 but he didnt play hardly at all his last season in Alabama.

    CeeDee Lamb will be a top 12 drafted player and he had 65 of those receptions for 1398 yards, 14 TDs. Only one other player on that team had over 20 receptions (43) which was Rambo. So id say that #1 progression isnt so far off. You got a great WR, try and get him the ball.

    I like Hurts.....preferably in the 3rd but wont complain if they use a 2nd......and hope he can be close to what Lamar is his second season. Just wish he was sitting behind Rivers instead of Tyrod while learning.

    Burrow is still my #1 but as i said, whoever we get, i'll hope for the best and i DO think Hurts is right up Lynn's alley for what he wants in a QB.
    340/233 = 1.45~ thats what i was talking about that was comparable to Kyle Murray's 3/2 = 1.5 pass to rush ratio when he came in to play those small minute in 2017. In that system, it has variety of routes, usually the lesser receiver will run those easy route that are almost decoylike and his primary target will handle the more complicated route. You see Ceedee will run a wheel route and Hurts check down and hit him on the third check. Those route takes time to develop and timing has to be right, so if you are not familiar with the system, those timing can be miss and QB are not encourage to keep looking in that system.

    You are right, Hurts didn't have as much field time as the others which making his 9700+ career passing yard all more impressive. I believe the "he is stuck on #1 progression thing" a bit of the difference in how we interpret stats.

    This is the receiving stats for the 2018 sooner, the Kyler Murray sooners.

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...homa/2018.html

    Marquise Brown: 75 reception, 1318 yards and 10 touchdown

    CeeDee Lamb: 65 reception, 1150 yards and 11 touchdown

    Next up.....

    Grant Calcaterra: 26 reception, 396 yards and 6 TD (Rambo had a grand total of 8 reception this year, not exactly a star here)

    Look familiar? Besides their primary targets the QB generally is not encourage to keep looking, you see, you see; you miss, don't try too hard. And those secondary receivers number won't be call unless it is in redzone situation when you see all those secondary receivers' reception to TD ratio is insane like (20%+)

    Here is 2019:

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/oklahoma/2019.html

    Ceedee Lamb: 62 reception, 1327 yards and 14 td

    Rambo: 43 reception, 743 yards and 5 td

    Then the rest will be the rest. So for not being familiar with the offense, he is keeping the efficiency of the offense to a good degree considering the talent they had lost last year.


    PS: Would love for him to learn behind Rivers too but I am glad the Rivers saga is over TBH. I have a feeling the Chargers would've drafted differently if it wasn't for the sake of trying to keep Rivers happy. Not a sly, just being honest.
    Last edited by C'monchargers; 02-29-2020, 04:14 PM.

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  • Lone Bolt
    replied
    Originally posted by C'monchargers View Post
    That's awesome...best interview material I have seen on Hurts. Usually he is kinda chillin....playing too cool for school...liked hearing him open up a bit, joke around...and watching his eyes light up when talking Xs and Os...good stuff.

    Leave a comment:


  • Boltjolt
    replied
    Originally posted by C'monchargers View Post
    Personally I always found the argument of Jalen Hurts "Will Run after first read" a bit harsh and with very little leverage against his recent work.

    First off, you don't amass - 3,851 yards which rank 9th in the nation, 32 TD which rank 11th in a 4 way tie with TUA, HERBERT and Sam Ehlinger - when you will take off if your first progression is covered.

    Second, Kyler Murray's last year in Oklahoma threw for 4,361 yards and rushed for 1001 yards. If Kyler has a full year of experience in the system and still rush over 1000 yards, naturally one would assume this Kyler Murray's oklahoma offensive scheme will involve the QB running. Jalen Hurts basically went there to run the exact offense and did it pretty well consider the amount of experience he had or the lack of, in the offense. On top of that his footwork is better. He pivot and align decently with his target on his check down compare to anything he had done prior and he looks stronger, functionally stronger.

    https://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...og?season=2017

    This is game logs for Kyler Murray's first year in Oklahoma, he play sparingly but his pass to run ratio is 3/2, that is almost the same ratio as Jalen Hurts at 1.45~ pass to rush ratio. At this point (Similar in Blocking but not identical to the scheme Baker was in), this system have a large amount of play that involve the QB running if he sees fit. There is a disdain difference between, "A QB choose to run first in a fight or flight" and "A QB is told to run if the option is open".

    Also, this is Jalen's first year playing at Oklahoma, whose to say he won't make similar improvement as Kyler did if he has a second year.

    He really only had run more than he threw in 1 game, which is against that TCU zone that just wrecked the Oklahoma passing game.

    Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.


    TCU is top 7 in holding to opp to 360 passes only on the year, 11th in int with 22, top 8 against passing in yardage. But yet allowed 22 TDs.
    So if you look at Jalen Hurts' Stat in that game, it basically was a well call game to take what was given by the defense. You know its going to be tough to pass against them so they run, and did it well 28 attempts, 173 yards and 2TD with a 6.2 yards avg. Even with a season low 52% completion rate in that game,he still manage to throw 2 TD only 1 int and took the W home.

    I am having a hard time finding the game tape and i rather not just post the link to a highlight to eval. So no tape eval for this game from me.

    PS: One thing Jalen Hurts said a few weeks back caught my ears. He said nothing in Alabama help him to succeed as a QB..... Here is a list of Nick Saban's QB and he was there since 2007

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...a/passing.html

    Yeah I would have to say Nick Saban is more often than not on the miss side as a QB developer. Mind you these are not low class recruit coming out of high school neither. Even in the case of Tua which he is playing well and he showed off his talent; but you have seen very little improvement from year to year. All he did was win, not improve.
    Not saying he cant BE a good NFL QB, just that he needs a lot of work.

    Hurts ran the ball 233 times last season (340 pass att). That is Lamar Jackson and Tim Tebow range......2 QBs than ran after their first and seldom second pregressions. All three of those guys have well over over 600 carries to their career,.... Hurts with the least of teh 3 but he didnt play hardly at all his last season in Alabama.

    CeeDee Lamb will be a top 12 drafted player and he had 65 of those receptions for 1398 yards, 14 TDs. Only one other player on that team had over 20 receptions (43) which was Rambo. So id say that #1 progression isnt so far off. You got a great WR, try and get him the ball.

    I like Hurts.....preferably in the 3rd but wont complain if they use a 2nd......and hope he can be close to what Lamar is his second season. Just wish he was sitting behind Rivers instead of Tyrod while learning.

    Burrow is still my #1 but as i said, whoever we get, i'll hope for the best and i DO think Hurts is right up Lynn's alley for what he wants in a QB.

    Leave a comment:


  • C'monchargers
    replied
    Fun watch here:

    Leave a comment:

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