Over Under on Melvin Ingram Sacks

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  • Xenos
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    • Feb 2019
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    #97
    Originally posted by Paradoxrip View Post

    I don't understand why can't get the fact that bell curve means they are AVERAGE PLAYERS. Not exceptional players Elite players are OVER ACHIEVERS and excel at their position. Jammer was never an over achiever.
    Probably because you're using bell curve in the wrong context. Jammer excelled at his position and was one of the best. He was an overachiever, working each offseason to improve his craft. Sorry that guys like you don't recognize that fact. But then again, some people also think the world is flat......

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    • Steve
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      #98
      Originally posted by Paradoxrip View Post

      Probably one of the best corners in the league? WOW sorry but not even close. Here. Im too lazy to post but I will link some ELITE corners. Compare them to Jammers and tell me again how he's one of the best. I would take Cromartie over Jammer.

      Jammer: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JammQu20.htm

      Darrelle Rivis:
      https://www.pro-football-reference.c...R/ReviDa99.htm
      Champ Bailey: https://www.pro-football-reference.c...B/BailCh00.htm
      Richard Sherman: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SherRi00.htm
      Patrick Peterson:
      https://www.pro-football-reference.c...P/PetePa00.htm
      Nnamdi Asomugha: https://www.pro-football-reference.c...A/AsomNn20.htm
      Asante Samuel: https://www.pro-football-reference.c...S/SamuAs20.htm
      Charles Woodson: https://www.pro-football-reference.c...W/WoodCh00.htm
      LOL even Antonio Cromartie: https://www.pro-football-reference.c...C/CromAn20.htm


      Just for kicks....

      Chris Harris Jr. https://www.pro-football-reference.c...H/HarrCh01.htm
      Casey Hayward: https://www.pro-football-reference.c...H/HaywCa00.htm


      I know stats are not the end all be all. However you can glean about where they truly rank with the best. Jammer never graded higher than an 8. All others had multiple years with double digits ranks. He was never one of the best. Again. He was a journeyman. Like I said solid.

      You are using stats like a drunk uses a light post. For support, rather than for illumination. The stats aren't telling you what each of these players achieved, because the best indication of a great coverage guy is such strong coverage that a QB would never throw at them.

      The other really big problem is that you are mixing and matching different types of players without defining what you mean as an Elite CB. Asomugha and Samuel were both great CB when they got to play to their strengths, but when they were asked to become press man to man coverage guys, instead of playing zone, they fell apart. They are great players in the right scheme, and the wrong player in other schemes, and you often see that in terms of how different teams view different players.

      Sherman is a great man to man press guy, but ask him to sit back in zones, like when he was in college, and he wasn't that great, which is why he was a 5th round pick. Other reasons too, but he was a better pro is the point). Hayward is another guy who struggled with GB asking him to be a press guy, giving up on him, and then he excelled for us in off man and zone coverage. His execution is outstanding, but he is not going to fit every D, and could get exposed badly in the wrong D.

      Jammer got exposed a lot because he was a man to man coverage CB on a team with very little pass rush. In the 2007 AFCCG, when we did have a decent pass rush, he limited Randy Moss (in his prime) to 1 catch for 12 yards and 1 int of Brady. I wouldn't say he was close to being an elite player (whatever that mean to you), just not in a situation where he would truely excel because he was in a D that didn't have good enough personnel around him to excel. You can't ask coverage guys to cover all day long and not give up some big plays. You have to have at least a decent pass rush to back them up, and Jammer didn't for most of his career.

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      • SuperCharged
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        #99
        Originally posted by Steve View Post

        You are using stats like a drunk uses a light post. For support, rather than for illumination. The stats aren't telling you what each of these players achieved, because the best indication of a great coverage guy is such strong coverage that a QB would never throw at them.

        The other really big problem is that you are mixing and matching different types of players without defining what you mean as an Elite CB. Asomugha and Samuel were both great CB when they got to play to their strengths, but when they were asked to become press man to man coverage guys, instead of playing zone, they fell apart. They are great players in the right scheme, and the wrong player in other schemes, and you often see that in terms of how different teams view different players.

        Sherman is a great man to man press guy, but ask him to sit back in zones, like when he was in college, and he wasn't that great, which is why he was a 5th round pick. Other reasons too, but he was a better pro is the point). Hayward is another guy who struggled with GB asking him to be a press guy, giving up on him, and then he excelled for us in off man and zone coverage. His execution is outstanding, but he is not going to fit every D, and could get exposed badly in the wrong D.

        Jammer got exposed a lot because he was a man to man coverage CB on a team with very little pass rush. In the 2007 AFCCG, when we did have a decent pass rush, he limited Randy Moss (in his prime) to 1 catch for 12 yards and 1 int of Brady. I wouldn't say he was close to being an elite player (whatever that mean to you), just not in a situation where he would truely excel because he was in a D that didn't have good enough personnel around him to excel. You can't ask coverage guys to cover all day long and not give up some big plays. You have to have at least a decent pass rush to back them up, and Jammer didn't for most of his career.
        OMG.:umno: Really didn't want to get pulled into a debate. But your argument is based on semantics. If they get into the HOF it is as a CORNERBACK. Not a press corner, or man to man or slot or zone or whatever. It's freaking a CB. Again stat are a barometer of level play. Correct? Or why even have stats at all. What is their purpose? Why care about completion percentage or amount of pressures or tackles or picks? What's the point if they are meaningless? You're really proud of jammers 1 good game against Randy Moss. One thing is still true and will always be true. STATS DON'T LIE. If you can't see a HUGE numbers drop from Elites to Jammer then that's like trying to teach a blind man to see. To proclaim Jammer as "Probably one of the best corners in the league" is just outright silly, and I liked Jammer!!!

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        • SuperCharged
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          Originally posted by Xenos View Post

          Probably because you're using bell curve in the wrong context. Jammer excelled at his position and was one of the best. He was an overachiever, working each offseason to improve his craft. Sorry that guys like you don't recognize that fact. But then again, some people also think the world is flat......
          Hahahaha! What did he over achieve on? "workig each offseason to improve his craft"? What players don't? The ones that fail. Please explain your context of the bell curve?

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          • powderblueboy
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            Originally posted by Paradoxrip View Post

            OMG.:umno: Really didn't want to get pulled into a debate. But your argument is based on semantics. If they get into the HOF it is as a CORNERBACK. Not a press corner, or man to man or slot or zone or whatever. It's freaking a CB. Again stat are a barometer of level play. Correct? Or why even have stats at all. What is their purpose? Why care about completion percentage or amount of pressures or tackles or picks? What's the point if they are meaningless? You're really proud of jammers 1 good game against Randy Moss. One thing is still true and will always be true. STATS DON'T LIE. If you can't see a HUGE numbers drop from Elites to Jammer then that's like trying to teach a blind man to see. To proclaim Jammer as "Probably one of the best corners in the league" is just outright silly, and I liked Jammer!!!
            Jammer was very much under appreciated here. He didn't get a lot of interceptions which often are too highly valued. No way Cro was better than Jammer in San diego: any stat that says otherwise is incomplete and suspicious.

            Does anyone remember how the 2008 playoff game against Pittsburgh was close until Jammer left the game late in the 1rst half with an injury? Charger D couldn't stop them after that

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            • SuperCharged
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              Originally posted by Xenos View Post

              Jammer is better than Asante Samuel, Cromartie, and Asomugha. Not sure why Harris and Hayward are on there since I said from 2005-2010 but he's better than both of those guys as well. That was too easy. You really do love fancy stats without understanding anything lol.

              Edit: also you don't know what a journeyman is. You're not a journeyman if you're the starting CB for one team for the entirety of your career except for the very last one.
              Without understanding anything? Is that a personal attack? We can get into name calling if you want to take it there.

              Jammer isn't better than Samuel? asomugha? Please. Better than Hayward and Harris? Nope and it really isn't that close. We definitely disagree. Maybe I am a stats guy. I like to see 1 players production compared to others. You find fault in that, which i find funny. A 10 picks season is still better than a 4 picks which was Jammers best btw.

              I don't know a journeyman is? Of course I do just because you take it out of context like a noob. Lets see if you can grasp this. 32 NFL teams have 1 starting CB that is considered the #1. Of those 32 there is a hierarchy. The best to the worst. Middle of the road guys are what I consider journeymen. They do their job. The bottom half are not very good and don't have long careers. Jammer is/was somewhere in the middle. Funny how all the HOF'ers with "fancey stats" are known for what is expected from their positions. Just a simple question to close this comment. If you were building a team in Madden. Would you choose someone like Shaquil Barret or would you go with your guy Super Mel? Or Historical, lets say Bruce Smith or Leslie O'Neil?

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              • Steve
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                Originally posted by Paradoxrip View Post

                OMG.:umno: Really didn't want to get pulled into a debate. But your argument is based on semantics. If they get into the HOF it is as a CORNERBACK. Not a press corner, or man to man or slot or zone or whatever. It's freaking a CB. Again stat are a barometer of level play. Correct? Or why even have stats at all. What is their purpose? Why care about completion percentage or amount of pressures or tackles or picks? What's the point if they are meaningless? You're really proud of jammers 1 good game against Randy Moss. One thing is still true and will always be true. STATS DON'T LIE. If you can't see a HUGE numbers drop from Elites to Jammer then that's like trying to teach a blind man to see. To proclaim Jammer as "Probably one of the best corners in the league" is just outright silly, and I liked Jammer!!!
                The "stats don't lie" part of your quote proves you have no idea what you are talking about. There is a classic book on the subject, "How to Lie with Statistics", it's a little dated now, but the content it still relevant. Google it and there are some decent YouTube videos as well. But it is clear you have no background in stats if you are saying that.

                You are just throwing around numbers. Again that proves little or nothing. You are also confusing the fact that sports and particularly fans tend to pick things that are easy to count more so than things that are relevant. Obviously, a top CB would be one that teams are too scared to throw at, yet, that limits the stats a CB could make. You can go on and on with this.

                Also, it is pretty obvious that most hall of fame CB don't have big seasons of int numbers. And many adequate to poor CB have also had 6.8,10 int in a season. It is not a matter of skill, necessarily, it is often a matter of pure luck. How many times does a WR run an out, the CB drops in a short zone the WR gets his head around, and the QB has thrown the ball poorly to the wrong shoulder, the CB has a play on it, and the WR has no chance? Sacks and in fact most things that happen on a sports field can be divided split into those that are lucky and those that are arrived at from skill, and statistics has no ability (by themselves) at figuring those out.

                It takes better numbers, which is what people like the Oakland A's, Bill James (Moneyball and the Sabermaticians), or PFF type are up to. Add some context so that you can add context.

                Any good statistical experiment I run at work has to start with the idea of what data do I have, and can that answer the question at hand. There are a awful lot of people out there making the rookie mistake of saying this is the data I have, it proves this, without even thinking about what data is there.

                Again, it all comes down to context. Samuels might be a more productive CB for a zone team, but ask Phily how much he sucked balls when they asked him to play man to man coverage. It is the kind of thing Jammer did well. But in a zone D, then Samuels is clearly the better guy.

                The whole "best:" is such a STUPID FUCKING ARGUMENT. It is so FUCKING pointless. What is the BEST anything? You can never win that argument. Usually the argument then gets settled to what makes a BEST, and you can never win that one either. It is ALL COMPLETELY SUBJECTIVE unless you can quantify EVERY part of it, and you can't. You are using Elite in this case, but that just adds extra layers of what does ELITE mean.

                If you want a serious argument, then ask a better question.

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                • FoutsFan
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                  • Feb 2019
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                  Originally posted by Steve View Post

                  The "stats don't lie" part of your quote proves you have no idea what you are talking about. There is a classic book on the subject, "How to Lie with Statistics", it's a little dated now, but the content it still relevant. Google it and there are some decent YouTube videos as well. But it is clear you have no background in stats if you are saying that.

                  You are just throwing around numbers. Again that proves little or nothing. You are also confusing the fact that sports and particularly fans tend to pick things that are easy to count more so than things that are relevant. Obviously, a top CB would be one that teams are too scared to throw at, yet, that limits the stats a CB could make. You can go on and on with this.

                  Also, it is pretty obvious that most hall of fame CB don't have big seasons of int numbers. And many adequate to poor CB have also had 6.8,10 int in a season. It is not a matter of skill, necessarily, it is often a matter of pure luck. How many times does a WR run an out, the CB drops in a short zone the WR gets his head around, and the QB has thrown the ball poorly to the wrong shoulder, the CB has a play on it, and the WR has no chance? Sacks and in fact most things that happen on a sports field can be divided split into those that are lucky and those that are arrived at from skill, and statistics has no ability (by themselves) at figuring those out.

                  It takes better numbers, which is what people like the Oakland A's, Bill James (Moneyball and the Sabermaticians), or PFF type are up to. Add some context so that you can add context.

                  Any good statistical experiment I run at work has to start with the idea of what data do I have, and can that answer the question at hand. There are a awful lot of people out there making the rookie mistake of saying this is the data I have, it proves this, without even thinking about what data is there.

                  Again, it all comes down to context. Samuels might be a more productive CB for a zone team, but ask Phily how much he sucked balls when they asked him to play man to man coverage. It is the kind of thing Jammer did well. But in a zone D, then Samuels is clearly the better guy.

                  The whole "best:" is such a STUPID FUCKING ARGUMENT. It is so FUCKING pointless. What is the BEST anything? You can never win that argument. Usually the argument then gets settled to what makes a BEST, and you can never win that one either. It is ALL COMPLETELY SUBJECTIVE unless you can quantify EVERY part of it, and you can't. You are using Elite in this case, but that just adds extra layers of what does ELITE mean.

                  If you want a serious argument, then ask a better question.
                  Even the "money ball" guys still struggle with stats meaning anything and the are the best with at it. As a lifelong Dodger fan I have watched the Excel spread sheet and the stats stab Dave Roberts in the back too often because he and the ownership group goes purely by stats and not by baseball knowledge. Stats are great and have become better over the years but they should only be used to enhance the and advise the decision not make it for you.

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                  • jubei
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                    • Feb 2019
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                    Jammer IMO was NO journeyman. Yes true early in his career he was a PI machine but he became much better than middling. AND he was not afraid to stick his nose in and help in run support. I remember when Jammer would shut down others #1...not fancy cuz no INTs but no catches either...or very little production from the #1. But damn I loved his physical style of play. IIRC he also said he would go play special teams cuz he was sick and tired of ST sucking ass. Jammer was one of my favorite CBs but for sure he was one of the most under appreciated corners in the league.

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                    • SuperCharged
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                      Originally posted by Steve View Post

                      The "stats don't lie" part of your quote proves you have no idea what you are talking about. There is a classic book on the subject, "How to Lie with Statistics", it's a little dated now, but the content it still relevant. Google it and there are some decent YouTube videos as well. But it is clear you have no background in stats if you are saying that.

                      You are just throwing around numbers. Again that proves little or nothing. You are also confusing the fact that sports and particularly fans tend to pick things that are easy to count more so than things that are relevant. Obviously, a top CB would be one that teams are too scared to throw at, yet, that limits the stats a CB could make. You can go on and on with this.

                      Also, it is pretty obvious that most hall of fame CB don't have big seasons of int numbers. And many adequate to poor CB have also had 6.8,10 int in a season. It is not a matter of skill, necessarily, it is often a matter of pure luck. How many times does a WR run an out, the CB drops in a short zone the WR gets his head around, and the QB has thrown the ball poorly to the wrong shoulder, the CB has a play on it, and the WR has no chance? Sacks and in fact most things that happen on a sports field can be divided split into those that are lucky and those that are arrived at from skill, and statistics has no ability (by themselves) at figuring those out.

                      It takes better numbers, which is what people like the Oakland A's, Bill James (Moneyball and the Sabermaticians), or PFF type are up to. Add some context so that you can add context.

                      Any good statistical experiment I run at work has to start with the idea of what data do I have, and can that answer the question at hand. There are a awful lot of people out there making the rookie mistake of saying this is the data I have, it proves this, without even thinking about what data is there.

                      Again, it all comes down to context. Samuels might be a more productive CB for a zone team, but ask Phily how much he sucked balls when they asked him to play man to man coverage. It is the kind of thing Jammer did well. But in a zone D, then Samuels is clearly the better guy.

                      The whole "best:" is such a STUPID FUCKING ARGUMENT. It is so FUCKING pointless. What is the BEST anything? You can never win that argument. Usually the argument then gets settled to what makes a BEST, and you can never win that one either. It is ALL COMPLETELY SUBJECTIVE unless you can quantify EVERY part of it, and you can't. You are using Elite in this case, but that just adds extra layers of what does ELITE mean.

                      If you want a serious argument, then ask a better question.

                      Steve, ok you're right. I know nothing about football I am just an ignorant person that believe stats do hold some value and they do tell a story. Excuse my stupidity.

                      Again, I think Ingram AND Jammer both are average players. I don't think either of played to the level of their contracts. I don't think either overachieved. Guess what... That's my fucking opinion be it right or wrong.

                      Now go piss on someone else with your holier than thou football arrogance.

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                      • Xenos
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                        Originally posted by Paradoxrip View Post

                        Without understanding anything? Is that a personal attack? We can get into name calling if you want to take it there.

                        Jammer isn't better than Samuel? asomugha? Please. Better than Hayward and Harris? Nope and it really isn't that close. We definitely disagree. Maybe I am a stats guy. I like to see 1 players production compared to others. You find fault in that, which i find funny. A 10 picks season is still better than a 4 picks which was Jammers best btw.

                        I don't know a journeyman is? Of course I do just because you take it out of context like a noob. Lets see if you can grasp this. 32 NFL teams have 1 starting CB that is considered the #1. Of those 32 there is a hierarchy. The best to the worst. Middle of the road guys are what I consider journeymen. They do their job. The bottom half are not very good and don't have long careers. Jammer is/was somewhere in the middle. Funny how all the HOF'ers with "fancey stats" are known for what is expected from their positions. Just a simple question to close this comment. If you were building a team in Madden. Would you choose someone like Shaquil Barret or would you go with your guy Super Mel? Or Historical, lets say Bruce Smith or Leslie O'Neil?
                        Going to address the bolded only just because that's what I want to :
                        1) Let me rephrase it then since ribbing someone is harder on the Internet. Have you heard of the saying "can't see the forest for the trees"? That's what's happening right now. You're so caught up on certain stats like sacks or interceptions, that you're missing the context and the bigger picture. Why is it that someone like Dwight Freeney, one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, think that sacks are a stupid stat? It's because football is such a complicated sport that data and stats provide a very surface level look. And you're talking to a guy who loves data, stats, and analytics. But the reality is that it's hard to quantify something that has so many moving parts. Even PFF can't get it right. Hopefully something that will make you appreciate football even more.

                        2) I would pick Super Mel in real life. And if I was Todd Bowles, I would pick Super Mel as well for my defense. That scheme was quite conducive for someone like Barrett. As for Madden, I suppose that's where stats would matter more. Same thing with Fantasy Football I guess.

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                        • FoutsFan
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                          • Feb 2019
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                          Originally posted by Xenos View Post

                          Going to address the bolded only just because that's what I want to :
                          1) Let me rephrase it then since ribbing someone is harder on the Internet. Have you heard of the saying "can't see the forest for the trees"? That's what's happening right now. You're so caught up on certain stats like sacks or interceptions, that you're missing the context and the bigger picture. Why is it that someone like Dwight Freeney, one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, think that sacks are a stupid stat? It's because football is such a complicated sport that data and stats provide a very surface level look. And you're talking to a guy who loves data, stats, and analytics. But the reality is that it's hard to quantify something that has so many moving parts. Even PFF can't get it right. Hopefully something that will make you appreciate football even more.

                          2) I would pick Super Mel in real life. And if I was Todd Bowles, I would pick Super Mel as well for my defense. That scheme was quite conducive for someone like Barrett. As for Madden, I suppose that's where stats would matter more. Same thing with Fantasy Football I guess.
                          To your point I have often seen football people say that such and such team had an overall bad defense but their run defense was actually really good. When you dig into the stats you find their pass defense was so bad that teams rarely ran on them so the run defense statistically appeared good. Or vise versa with teams and a bad run defense, teams will run the ball all day and not pass as often so their pass defense statistically appears to be good. When you watch the games closely you can tell that the overall defense was just bad.

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