2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[eaterfan]

In this mock, we trade down to 20 with Chicago. Don’t know anything about the choice at 20.

https://theathletic.com/2523362/2021...value-options/

I wouldn't mind doing it, but I'd rather do their first next year rather than their 3rd this year and 2nd next year. It's a risk, but I could see Chicago really falling off a cliff this year. Maybe Detroit and Minnesota are worse and they get a couple wins there, but they play the NFC West, AFC North, Tampa Bay, NYG, and the Raiders. That's a pretty tough schedule and I think they are worse than last year. We could be looking at a Houston trading their pick to Miami type proposition there and a GM who won't be there worry about losing that pick.

Having a possible top 5 pick next year would be a great chance to pick up a stud or trade down and pick up a ton more talent if we want.

[Bolt Dude]

I wouldn't mind doing it, but I'd rather do their first next year rather than their 3rd this year and 2nd next year. It's a risk, but I could see Chicago really falling off a cliff this year. Maybe Detroit and Minnesota are worse and they get a couple wins there, but they play the NFC West, AFC North, Tampa Bay, NYG, and the Raiders. That's a pretty tough schedule and I think they are worse than last year. We could be looking at a Houston trading their pick to Miami type proposition there and a GM who won't be there worry about losing that pick.

Having a possible top 5 pick next year would be a great chance to pick up a stud or trade down and pick up a ton more talent if we want.

We definitely shouldn’t assume Darrisaw or Jenkins are on the board at #20.

At #13 we’re looking at possible player pool with one of Slater, Darrisaw, Horn, or Surtain.

At #20 we’d be looking at Little, Radunz, Farley or Newsome.

[Topcat]

This chart does show there are more than a few successful OTs that have excelled with less than ideal length.

This chart also shows the hit rate on ideal + length players is significantly higher.

Right, I did acknowledge that the Elastotackles have an edge...however, as I also mentioned, there are a lot of T-Rexes playing at a high level...need to look at several factors when doing player evaluation...

[eaterfan]

We definitely shouldn’t assume Darrisaw or Jenkins are on the board at #20.

At #13 we’re looking at possible player pool with one of Slater, Darrisaw, Horn, or Surtain.

At #20 we’d be looking at Little, Radunz, Farley or Newsome.

It's definitely not a sure thing, but I'd imagine Jenkins or Cosmi will be there. I think Darrisaw will be a better player than both of them, but I'm not totally sure. I'm also not sure that Farley won't be the best CB in this draft.

At the price of the Bears first round pick next year, I'll take those odds that I'm wrong about Darrisaw compared to the other OTs or Surtain/Horn compared to the other DBs.

[wu-dai clan]

The quote from Polian that TT pulled up recently explains why he will not trade down.

"If Dwight Freeney is good enough to draft at 20, he's good enough to draft at 11."

[like54ninjas]

The quote from Polian that TT pulled up recently explains why he will not trade down.

"If Dwight Freeney is good enough to draft at 20, he's good enough to draft at 11."

I listened to that too. I agree with him.
I would be willing to listen to offers if I have a cluster of players that I have graded closely, especially @PONs.

[MagicMamba88]

Don't think hes gonna make it past the 2nd round

[Panamamike]

The five players in this draft Gil Brandt loves:

1. Jaelan Phillips, pass-rusher, Miami. “He’s the guy everybody will be talking about two years from now. A bit of medical risk due to concussions, but to me he has the biggest upside in the draft. You hit on him, you’ve hit a home run with the bases loaded.”

2. Elijah Moore, wide receiver, Mississippi. “Really fast. A 4.35 guy who could be a lot like A.J. Brownout of Ole Miss a couple of years ago. Not the same body type, but I think Moore will be better in the NFL than he was in college.”

3. Kyle Pitts, tight end, Florida. “Best I’ve seen since Kellen Winslow out of Missouri. Such a fluid guy. The size and speed will be a huge matchup problem in the NFL.”

4. Penei Sewell, tackle, Oregon. “Reminds me of Jonathan Ogden.”

5. Michael Carter, running back, North Carolina. “Love this guy. He shared the job at UNC, but 6.6 yards per carry in his career. I think he’ll lead all rookie running backs in yards in the league next year.”

I think Phillips is a hell of a player however I want no part of someone that has had such severe concussion issues. He would be off of my board due to the medical reasons.

[Bolt Dude]

Don't think hes gonna make it past the 2nd round

Adebo was playing out of his mind that game, diving everywhere making plays on the ball. Those Oregon receivers were famously sub-par and slow, but Adebo’s efforts could not have gone unnoticed. They were certainly noticed by me.

[BoltUp InLA]

Mostly agree there, Wood. If we go by this arm length chart, statistically there appears to be an edge to the Elastotackles, though there are MANY OT's performing at a high level in the 32"-33" T-Rex range. So, correct, arm length can be a factor in performance; however it is not the only factor. Game tape and quality of competition to me are the biggest factors.

offensive tackle arm length chart.png

Interesting Scatter Plot about arm length versus performance! Darrisaw apparently fits that sweet spot that seems fairly safe according to the data used to populate that graph.

Darrisaw is 6' 4.6” and weighed in at 322 on his pro-day. His 34.5” inch arms arm good length for NFL offensive tackles.

[Formula 21]

Mostly agree there, Wood. If we go by this arm length chart, statistically there appears to be an edge to the Elastotackles, though there are MANY OT's performing at a high level in the 32"-33" T-Rex range. So, correct, arm length can be a factor in performance; however it is not the only factor. Game tape and quality of competition to me are the biggest factors.

offensive tackle arm length chart.png

Any guesses on which one is Fluker?

[Bolt Dude]

Any guesses on which one is Fluker?

Well his arms are damn near 37” so...