Eat Crow - Rivers Led Colts or Chargers - Most Wins

[like54ninjas]

Good grief. Not only are you wrong. You will just start making stuff up. Reduced run play calling by 50%. ???
Lynn proofing Reich play calling? This is just flat out absurd. Complete non-sense.

Colts have the #1 pass D and #3 Rush D.
They Colts D leads the league #1 in interceptions.
The Colts D is #2 in passing TD allowed.
That might have a little to do with why a QB with 7TD and 6INT is 4-2.

And before you lie lie and lie again and say its because Reich and his play calling are limiting Rivers.
Reich gives Rivers the ability to change the play and audible to a pass. So Rivers has the freedom to pass.
And don't lie and say Reich always runs on 1st down or is too predictable because the situational football splits stats say otherwise.
Reich/Rivers are wisely trying to staying committed to run to keep defense honest so play action can work and Colt defense can rest.
Go Check the numbers and watch the games. You obviously have no issue making up something to fit your point even when the facts don't support it.
Anything to be exactly right and make others wrong. And say my post prove it. Your post prove you have an opinion and that is all.

Game 1 Rivers throws 46 attempts. Colts run 21 times - LOSS
Game 2 Rivers throws 25 attempts. Colts run 40 times - WIN
Game 3 Rivers throws 25 attempts. Colts run 31 times - WIN
Game 4 Rivers throws 29 attempts. Colts run 38 times - WIN
Game 5 Rivers throws 44 attempts. Colts run 15 times - LOSS

Even though TWO LOSSES were 46 & 44 attempt games. And the THREE WINS were 25, 25, 29 attempt games.

You correctly pointed out before Bengals game that they are losing because they are not passing enough?!!?!!

Game 6 Rivers throws 33 attempts. Colts run 18 times - WIN

Oh wait, you meant early they are running too much, right?

But, how do the 2020 Colts start drives? Run heavy?! Pass Heavy?! Balanced?!

The numbers for Colts 1st Three plays of each drive this year for games 1 through 5 prior to Bengals game.
Passes = 83
Runs = 60
So the fact is they have been throwing it more to start drives all year long.
23 more passes on 1st 3 plays of a drive in games 1-5. Doesnt even include Bengals game.
Huh? Could have sworn Crusher was right about being too run heavy early. Interesting?

Until Bengals game, All their wins were more run game and defense. When it was pass heavy with Rivers they lost. Imagine that.

Oh wait, you meant just 1st and 2nd down as running too much early, right?

Let see, the Colts stats show they actually call more pass plays on 1st and 2nd downs than they do runs. Weird?
And the Colts stats also shows they are more pass heavy on 1st & 2nd downs in 1st half of games all year long. 56% Pass to 44% Run.
So, again more passes early downs early in games. Could have sworn you were exactly right about too much running. Strange? The Stat don't support your take. Why is that?
Am I spinning things? I do not think so because these numbers are facts on situational football splits for the 2020 Colts.

You want to watch a team that goes run run on 1st and 2nd downs in 1st half of games. Patriots 40% Pass 60% Run.
Some here want Josh McDaniels. Beware, You will get even more run run than Lynn.
If you like the pass early on early downs, Would you prefer Washington Football team or Bengals. They both are pass heavy early in games on early downs.
Pass 60% and run 40% on 1st and 2nd downs in 1st half of games.
Wash, and Cincy team have a combine record of 2-9-1.
Simply passing more is not a fix in the game of football.

Sean McVay of the 2020 RAMS. He is a Xs and OS genius.
What does he do on 1st and 2nd downs in the 1st half of games.
So far it is Pass= 69 Runs = 78
What No?!! he is even more conservative than Reich. Imagine that.

Play calling is a bit overrated. Execution is what really matters.

But I will concede Crusher. You called it before the Bengals game. Its all Rivers credit for carrying that team in spite of Reich holding him back and the defense faltering.
You are exactly right and I'm wrong.
:tongue:

You want the TRUTH?
I think I’m entitled.
You can’t handle the TRUTH!.!.!

All hail Critty............:youaretheman:!.!.!.!

[Guest]

Good grief. Not only are you wrong. You will just start making stuff up. Reduced run play calling by 50%. ???
Lynn proofing Reich play calling? This is just flat out absurd. Complete non-sense.

Colts have the #1 pass D and #3 Rush D.
They Colts D leads the league #1 in interceptions.
The Colts D is #2 in passing TD allowed.
That might have a little to do with why a QB with 7TD and 6INT is 4-2.

And before you lie lie and lie again and say its because Reich and his play calling are limiting Rivers.
Reich gives Rivers the ability to change the play and audible to a pass. So Rivers has the freedom to pass.
And don't lie and say Reich always runs on 1st down or is too predictable because the situational football splits stats say otherwise.
Reich/Rivers are wisely trying to staying committed to run to keep defense honest so play action can work and Colt defense can rest.
Go Check the numbers and watch the games. You obviously have no issue making up something to fit your point even when the facts don't support it.
Anything to be exactly right and make others wrong. And say my post prove it. Your post prove you have an opinion and that is all.

Game 1 Rivers throws 46 attempts. Colts run 21 times - LOSS
Game 2 Rivers throws 25 attempts. Colts run 40 times - WIN
Game 3 Rivers throws 25 attempts. Colts run 31 times - WIN
Game 4 Rivers throws 29 attempts. Colts run 38 times - WIN
Game 5 Rivers throws 44 attempts. Colts run 15 times - LOSS

Even though TWO LOSSES were 46 & 44 attempt games. And the THREE WINS were 25, 25, 29 attempt games.

You correctly pointed out before Bengals game that they are losing because they are not passing enough?!!?!!

Game 6 Rivers throws 33 attempts. Colts run 18 times - WIN

Oh wait, you meant early they are running too much, right?

But, how do the 2020 Colts start drives? Run heavy?! Pass Heavy?! Balanced?!

The numbers for Colts 1st Three plays of each drive this year for games 1 through 5 prior to Bengals game.
Passes = 83
Runs = 60
So the fact is they have been throwing it more to start drives all year long.
23 more passes on 1st 3 plays of a drive in games 1-5. Doesnt even include Bengals game.
Huh? Could have sworn Crusher was right about being too run heavy early. Interesting?

Until Bengals game, All their wins were more run game and defense. When it was pass heavy with Rivers they lost. Imagine that.

Oh wait, you meant just 1st and 2nd down as running too much early, right?

Let see, the Colts stats show they actually call more pass plays on 1st and 2nd downs than they do runs. Weird?
And the Colts stats also shows they are more pass heavy on 1st & 2nd downs in 1st half of games all year long. 56% Pass to 44% Run.
So, again more passes early downs early in games. Could have sworn you were exactly right about too much running. Strange? The Stat don't support your take. Why is that?
Am I spinning things? I do not think so because these numbers are facts on situational football splits for the 2020 Colts.

You want to watch a team that goes run run on 1st and 2nd downs in 1st half of games. Patriots 40% Pass 60% Run.
Some here want Josh McDaniels. Beware, You will get even more run run than Lynn.
If you like the pass early on early downs, Would you prefer Washington Football team or Bengals. They both are pass heavy early in games on early downs.
Pass 60% and run 40% on 1st and 2nd downs in 1st half of games.
Wash, and Cincy team have a combine record of 2-9-1.
Simply passing more is not a fix in the game of football.

Sean McVay of the 2020 RAMS. He is a Xs and OS genius.
What does he do on 1st and 2nd downs in the 1st half of games.
So far it is Pass= 69 Runs = 78
What No?!! he is even more conservative than Reich. Imagine that.

Play calling is a bit overrated. Execution is what really matters.

But I will concede Crusher. You called it before the Bengals game. Its all Rivers credit for carrying that team in spite of Reich holding him back.
You are exactly right and I'm wrong.
:tongue:

1. The Colts were averaging about 30 rushing attempts per game going into the game against Cincinnati. They rushed the ball 15 times. 15 is half of 30 and is a 50% reduction. And, frankly, the rushing attempts per game were even greater until they were forced to throw late against CLE. So 15 rushing attempts is a huge reduction from the 36 attempts they were averaging in weeks 2-4.

2. Your discussion of wins and losses is irrelevant to the discussion about how Reich's run heavy play calling on early downs has stifled the offense. You do understand that there has been a huge range in the level of performance by the defense of the Colts, right? So, for example, in week 1, the Colts had 445 yards of offense and did not have to punt in the entire game, but their pass defense was awful. The Colts lost, but it was not because the offense was not humming.

3. Stop misrepresenting the facts. Reich did in fact call more runs than passes on first and second down in the games against MIN, NYJ and CHI, and was on his way to doing so again against CLE when the Colts had to go pass heavy late to try to catch up. Those were the games about which I complained of bad play calling from an early down run/pass distributional standpoint. I went back and counted the plays today to verify that point and I did verify it. To the extent you suggest anything to the contrary, you are wrong and are misrepresenting the facts. Overall, I have no issue with the run/pass distribution in weeks 1 and 6 and never challenged those games, so if you included the first and second down run/pass distributional play counts in those games, you improperly skewed the analysis.

The point of this is really very simple. The Colts suck at running the ball, ranking last or near last in YPC for most of the season. By running more heavily on early downs, the offense is placed in known passing situations that are more favorable to the opposing defense. It also reduces the number of passing attempts available to pick up a first down. That makes the passing attack not do as well. And that is what was happening earlier this season. Similarly, the passing attack was hampered by Cleveland knowing that the Colts had to pass because the Colts got behind with their run heavy approach.

4. What other teams do is irrelevant to the discussion of what the Colts should be doing. I think the Ravens should run the ball more relatively speaking versus a team like the Colts that does not run the ball nearly as well because the Ravens are much better at running the ball (5.4 YPC versus 3.6 YPC for the Colts).

5. Play calling is not overrated. Your notion to the contrary is just crazy. The two best games by far for the Colts from the standpoint of the offense moving the ball effectively happened when Rivers was permitted to throw a lot from fairly early on the game (JAC, CIN). The play calling makes a huge difference. Keep in mind that these two games featured bad performances by the defense and yet despite that, they were still the two best offensive games.

[Critty]

I agree, it's a team game...numerous factors determine the outcome.

Unless of course the Colts lose. Then it's all Rivers' fault.

QB driven league. 25milllion.
He deserves his fair share of credit and blame.
He has a top 5 offensive line and a top 5 defense to help try and make a run at things. If he misses the postseason. He likely deserves a large amount of blame, especially if he ends up with 16 or more interceptions and 1 game short of the wildcard spot.

Would be fun to see him succeed. I just not sure he won't do too much and end up throwing some inexplicably bad late game interceptions. If he can eliminate some interception and throw 6 or less over final 10 games, ending up with 12 or less for the year. Then its hard to imagine them missing post season. But if those interceptions are 10 or more over final 10 games. That probably gets in their way of success.

:Cheers1:

[Guest]

Game. Set. Match.

Just ridiculous.

[Critty]

1. The Colts were averaging about 30 rushing attempts per game going into the game against Cincinnati. They rushed the ball 15 times. 15 is half of 30 and is a 50% reduction. And, frankly, the rushing attempts per game were even greater until they were forced to throw late against CLE. So 15 rushing attempts is a huge reduction from the 36 attempts they were averaging in weeks 2-4.

2. Your discussion of wins and losses is irrelevant to the discussion about how Reich's run heavy play calling on early downs has stifled the offense. You do understand that there has been a huge range in the level of performance by the defense of the Colts, right? So, for example, in week 1, the Colts had 445 yards of offense and did not have to punt in the entire game, but their pass defense was awful. The Colts lost, but it was not because the offense was not humming.

3. Stop misrepresenting the facts. Reich did in fact call more runs than passes on first and second down in the games against MIN, NYJ and CHI, and was on his way to doing so again against CLE when the Colts had to go pass heavy late to try to catch up. Those were the games about which I complained of bad play calling from an early down run/pass distributional standpoint. I went back and counted the plays today to verify that point and I did verify it. To the extent you suggest anything to the contrary, you are wrong and are misrepresenting the facts. Overall, I have no issue with the run/pass distribution in weeks 1 and 6 and never challenged those games, so if you included the first and second down run/pass distributional play counts in those games, you improperly skewed the analysis.

The point of this is really very simple. The Colts suck at running the ball, ranking last or near last in YPC for most of the season. By running more heavily on early downs, the offense is placed in known passing situations that are more favorable to the opposing defense. It also reduces the number of passing attempts available to pick up a first down. That makes the passing attack not do as well. And that is what was happening earlier this season. Similarly, the passing attack was hampered by Cleveland knowing that the Colts had to pass because the Colts got behind with their run heavy approach.

4. What other teams do is irrelevant to the discussion of what the Colts should be doing. I think the Ravens should run the ball more relatively speaking versus a team like the Colts that does not run the ball nearly as well because the Ravens are much better at running the ball (5.4 YPC versus 3.6 YPC for the Colts).

5. Play calling is not overrated. Your notion to the contrary is just crazy. The two best games by far for the Colts from the standpoint of the offense moving the ball effectively happened when Rivers was permitted to throw a lot from fairly early on the game (JAC, CIN). The play calling makes a huge difference. Keep in mind that these two games featured bad performances by the defense and yet despite that, they were still the two best offensive games.

Rivers can audible to pass. You do know he has a high IQ and can do that? Don't you?
Reich is not stopping him from adjusting the play.
The fact that you keep blaming Reich for the play shows you don't understand football.

Frank Reich spends a good deal of time teaching the ins and outs of each play with the quarterbacks.
They don’t want the signal caller simply to understand what is happening on each play. The underlying concepts of why each play is designed to succeed hold just as much importance.
It’s that deeper knowledge of the playbook that allows the quarterback to survey the defense before each snap and make a decision to put the offense in the best possible position
Including changing a play at the line of scrimmage if he doesn’t like the look he gets from the defense.

Reich's heavy run calling? Again. You do know Rivers gets to decide?!!? Reich gives him full authority to change the play.
And when you get behind you will throw more to catch up. Every team does that.
But typically teams want to balance their offense. Run & Pass. Stay ahead of chains in down and distance. Keep the other team off balance. Have the entire playbook available.
The situational football stats for Colts 2020 have them at 56% Pass and 44% Run on 1st and 2nd down in 1st half of games.
So this idea that they are run heavy on early downs or early in games because of Reich is simply not true and will never be true.

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Also, every great football mind from Sid Gilman, to Bill Walsh to Bill Belichek have stated in their own way Execution is paramount.
But feel free to put Xs & Os play calling as the most important thing.
And lose because your great PASS and PASS again on early downs did NOT work because someone failed to execute their assignment and ran the wrong route, block the wrong guy, made the wrong read, threw to the wrong player, lined up illegally, etc. Or defense played you all out for the pass on early downs and started sacking the shit out of your QB because you are so predictable in your play calling.

But again Crusher, I concede. You are Exactly right. And I'm wrong.

Good night.
:beer:

[PR#1]

Great article from the Indy Star website regarding Sundays game.

"While there may still be plenty of Rivers doubters out there, he has officially put a couple of narratives to bed, including the can’t-put-the-team-on-his-shoulders one. The Colts rode Rivers' right shoulder to victory."

"Seeing is believing. And what we saw Sunday from Rivers was nothing short of mesmerizing. He was accurate, on-time, potent and confident in completing 29-of-44 passes (65.9%) for three touchdowns, 371 yards and one interception. Even better was almost all of that good work came while trailing and against a Bengals secondary that entered the day ranked ninth in passing yards allowed (228.6), seventh in yards per play (6.46) and fourth in opposing quarterback rating (81.7). "

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2020/10/18/colts-vs-bengals-riding-philip-rivers-roller-coaster-seeing-believing/3683737001/

[beachcomber]

QB driven league. 25milllion.
He deserves his fair share of credit and blame.
He has a top 5 offensive line and a top 5 defense to help try and make a run at things. If he misses the postseason. He likely deserves a large amount of blame, especially if he ends up with 16 or more interceptions and 1 game short of the wildcard spot.

Would be fun to see him succeed. I just not sure he won't do too much and end up throwing some inexplicably bad late game interceptions. If he can eliminate some interception and throw 6 or less over final 10 games, ending up with 12 or less for the year. Then its hard to imagine them missing post season. But if those interceptions are 10 or more over final 10 games. That probably gets in their way of success.

:Cheers1:

reminds me of when peoples were down on Brees, and he had guys like an injured Curtis Conway, Reche Caldwell and an on and off again David Boston to throw to.... no wonder LT got the ball so often.

[beachcomber]

most every skilled lobbyist is an expert at the art of.... omission.

heavyweight duel here.... too close to call ??

surprised ol' Steve hasn't weighed in on here....

[jubei]

dont say anything bad about rivers or chain will crush you. bet he still wants rivers leading the bolts. I used to LOVE rivers til the last about 3 yrs, when he started to be too sloppy. He had that really solid year sandwiched in between where we went to the POs. I'm glad we moved on cuz he wasnt worth the salary that was distributed to other players. too bad those others are injured now.

[beachcomber]

I know Mike Williams had a big game for us last game. Still, I think he was drafted primarily for Phil. Hilton is not at all a good fit for Rivers, and I think it's affecting Hilton's play. What if we traded Williams straight-up for TY Hilton? I don't know what the cap ramifications are, and I think they are at different contract stages, so there might have to be something a little extra going one way or the other. Talent-wise, though, they might be near the same at this point in time. Isn't Hilton a better fit for Herbert than for Rivers, and Williams a better fit for Rivers than Herbert? Could be a win-win.

TB 2.0 ??


the Week 6 win over Cincinnati, Philip Rivers passed for a season-high 371 yards ... and Hilton ended up with just 11. One catch on five targets. He still has yet to reach the end zone in 2020.

Using computer vision to track Hilton's routes and assess the situation, I find that the 30-year-old is not getting open -- i.e., separating by more than 3 feet -- as often as he used to. He's been open on just 17 percent of pass plays in 2020, as opposed to 40 percent in 2019. (Note: The league average is 31 percent.) Furthermore, Hilton's deep receiving production, once a strength of his game, is lackluster -- at best. Since the beginning of 2019, Hilton has managed just three grabs on 14 targets of 20-plus air yards.

The Colts are off this week, but in Week 8, Hilton has a fine opportunity to get back on track against a shaky Lions defense. And he better, because the stifling Ravens defense awaits in Week 9.

https://www.nfl.com/news/kirk-cousins-baker-mayfield-head-five-high-profile-players-becoming-liabilities

[Velo]

dont say anything bad about rivers or chain will crush you. bet he still wants rivers leading the bolts. I used to LOVE rivers til the last about 3 yrs, when he started to be too sloppy. He had that really solid year sandwiched in between where we went to the POs. I'm glad we moved on cuz he wasnt worth the salary that was distributed to other players. too bad those others are injured now.

After 2016 when Rivers led the league in INTs with 21 and had an INT% of 3.6 I thought in 2017 TT would draft a QB in the first round with such a high pick. I was on the SDUT Chargers forum advocating for the Bolts to draft that kid out of TCU, Patrick Mahomes. But it's hard to move on from a QB that is still throwing for 4,500 yards per season and plus-30 TDs. Then came that stretch of games from mid 2017 through 2018 where Rivers looked like he was rejuvenated. He literally cut his INTs in half. I still wished TT had drafted Mahomes, but I was still pretty happy with Rivers. Then came 2019 when Rivers reverted to being a turnover machine again. The game that really got me was Week 2 in Detroit when Rivers tried to force a pass into KA on 3rd and 19 inside 2 mins and it was INT'd in the end zone. The Chargers were down by 3 and in FG range. That was bad Rivers come back again, and that was the Rivers we saw most of the season last year. His TD percentage in 2019 - 3.9 - was almost as high as his INT percentage - 3.4. The Chargers had a high draft pick with a good looking QB class, and with Rivers demanding upwards of $20 mil per season, it was a no-brainer to move on from the 38-39 year old. Rivers' TD to INT percentage is almost equal again so far in 2020 3.5 to 3.0. I think the Colts are going to see more of the bad Rivers than the good Rivers like we did in 2019.

[like54ninjas]

After 2016 when Rivers led the league in INTs with 21 and had an INT% of 3.6 I thought in 2017 TT would draft a QB in the first round with such a high pick. I was on the SDUT Chargers forum advocating for the Bolts to draft that kid out of TCU, Patrick Mahomes. But it's hard to move on from a QB that is still throwing for 4,500 yards per season and plus-30 TDs. Then came that stretch of games from mid 2017 through 2018 where Rivers looked like he was rejuvenated. He literally cut his INTs in half. I still wished TT had drafted Mahomes, but I was still pretty happy with Rivers. Then came 2019 when Rivers reverted to being a turnover machine again. The game that really got me was Week 2 in Detroit when Rivers tried to force a pass into KA on 3rd and 19 inside 2 mins and it was INT'd in the end zone. The Chargers were down by 3 and in FG range. That was bad Rivers come back again, and that was the Rivers we saw most of the season last year. His TD percentage in 2019 - 3.9 - was almost as high as his INT percentage - 3.4. The Chargers had a high draft pick with a good looking QB class, and with Rivers demanding upwards of $20 mil per season, it was a no-brainer to move on from the 38-39 year old. Rivers' TD to INT percentage is almost equal again so far in 2020 3.5 to 3.0. I think the Colts are going to see more of the bad Rivers than the good Rivers like we did in 2019.

Pat played for Texas Tech, AL’s alma mater, not TCU.