Herbert vs Burrow, A Statistical Comparison After Week 5

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  • Charge!
    Registered Charger Fan
    • Aug 2019
    • 7267
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    #13
    Originally posted by Velo View Post
    If the Dolphins had passed on drafting a QB, who doesn't think the Chargers would have drafted Tua rather than Herbert? If the Chargers had the choice of drafting Burrow, Tua or Herbert, who doesn't think they would have drafted Burrow? Herbert was everybody's third choice of the top QBs in this draft, and the Chargers just got lucky they had to settle for third choice.
    true...... but its way too early..... all 3 QB's could be special in different ways.....

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    • 21&500
      Bolt Spit-Baller
      • Sep 2018
      • 10381
      • A Whale's Vajayjay
      • CMB refugee
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      #14
      Originally posted by Charge! View Post

      true...... but its way too early..... all 3 QB's could be special in different ways.....
      How dare you suggest Tua has an intellectual disability....
      .005 Brock Bowers, TE/HB/SR Georgia
      .037 Braden Fiske, DT Florida St.
      .069 Mike Sainristil, CB Michigan
      .105 Brenden Rice, WR USC
      .110 Mason McCormick, OG/OC S. Dakota St.
      .140 Zak Zinter, OG Michigan
      .181 Nehemiah Pritchett, CB Auburn
      .225 Ainias Smith, WR Texas A&M
      .253 Carson Steele, RB UCLA

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      • BoltUp InLA
        Registered Charger Fan
        • Sep 2020
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        #15
        Originally posted by Critty View Post


        I know thank god fans like you don't or we would still have Rivers in decline falling off a cliff while you blamed the o-line. And there would be no Herbert.
        And every other year we would fired the HC, OC and DC and they would be like the old Browns team that never stuck to a long term plan.

        5 games in and its already been decided???
        Let it marinate for while. Then I will eat the crow. It will taste better marinated.

        And it is kind of unfair as Herbert has the much much better HC in Lynn. And the better team.
        Chargers had won 17 games over the previous 2 season and a playoff game. And a plus 91 point differential over those 2 seasons.
        Bengals had won 8 games the previous 2 seasons. And were minus 228 point differential over those 2 season.
        So that is a 319 point difference between the two franchises over the past 2 seasons before the rookie QBs were added this year.
        Lynn as Bengals HC would have made sure he protected Burrow better, just like he is doing for Herbert.
        Its not the QBs,they both are gifted. Its the preparation by the coaching staff or lack thereof, that is part of the equation.
        Herbert would have the worse QBR and Burrow the better if they switched teams.
        Hopefully Bengals don't get him too beat up.
        Burrow was sack 7 times vs Ravens last week and 22 times on the year.
        Herbert only been sacked 9 times in the 4 games even though line is missing 3 starters Pouncey, Turner and Bulaga. Credit to Lynn.
        :hello:
        Well said! Great point about the sack differential also. There is a reason Herbert is playing beyond expectation at this point and I rarely ever hear that coaching has been at least partially the reason. I hear some talk about Pep and I agree he has done a good job as well, but it also has to do with the scheme and planning, which certainly involves more of the coaching staff. I came across a very interesting clip of Kurt Warner where he mentions the coaching staff placing Herbert in solid position that plays to his strengths.

        Comment


        • #16
          Originally posted by JustAnotherFan View Post
          I like statistics.
          I don't believe they are the end all, but humans suffer from perception bias, and statistics help counter that.
          (Look up Perception Bias, its something everybody should be aware of, it effects EVERYBODY.)

          For quarterbacks, I like ESPN's Total QBR, as it is one of the few metrics that take into account passing and running, discounts garbage time stats, and takes into account situations, I.E. 4 yard completion on 4th and 3 is great, 4 yard completion on 4th and 5 sucks.

          So, to compare Burrow and Herbert after 5 weeks, I look at QBR.

          Burrow has 5 games, with QBRs listed from best to worst
          82.6, 54.1, 53.2, 15.9, 5.7

          Herbert with 4 games, with QBR's listed from best to worst
          87.4, 76.7, 74.5, 58.0

          Season to date QBR
          Burrow 43.7 ranked 30th in NFL
          Herbert 74.0 ranked 15th in NFL

          The thing that most jumps out at me here is consistency.
          Herbert has one mediocre game, and 3 excellent games.
          Burrow has 2 horrible games, 2 mediocre games, and 1 excellent game.

          At draft time, the word on Herbert was he had flashes of absurd brilliance, but was massively inconsistent.
          Burrow was thought to be the NFL ready QB with a history of consistency.

          I was one of those people who was worried about Herbert's inconsistency in college, I worried he would not be able to be consistent enough against the much better defenses that are in the NFL.

          I was very wrong.

          P.S.
          Burrow is doing fine. Historically, rookies are inconsistent, have multiple horrible games, etc
          The comparison with Herbert is almost unfair, as Herbert is putting up historically insane numbers for a rookie.
          ESPN's Total QBR is not recognized by the NFL as an oficial stat for good reason. Read their discussion of Clutch Index. A QB that blows the other team away with brilliant QB play early gets scored less than a QB who plays a lesser game, but happens to do it is a close game, a game that is only close because the lesser QB did not put the other team away early. And the QB's own defense can contribute to his QB rating by letting the other team score. That is absolute crap.

          Other using that flawed, unrecognized stat that ESPN made up, your conlusion that Herbert has outperformed Burrow is sound.

          In this instance, you can get to the same result by using raw stats and using the real QB rating of the QBs.

          Comment


          • #17
            Originally posted by Critty View Post


            I know thank god fans like you don't or we would still have Rivers in decline falling off a cliff while you blamed the o-line. And there would be no Herbert.
            And every other year we would fired the HC, OC and DC and they would be like the old Browns team that never stuck to a long term plan.

            5 games in and its already been decided???
            Let it marinate for while. Then I will eat the crow. It will taste better marinated.

            And it is kind of unfair as Herbert has the much much better HC in Lynn. And the better team.
            Chargers had won 17 games over the previous 2 season and a playoff game. And a plus 91 point differential over those 2 seasons.
            Bengals had won 8 games the previous 2 seasons. And were minus 228 point differential over those 2 season.
            So that is a 319 point difference between the two franchises over the past 2 seasons before the rookie QBs were added this year.
            Lynn as Bengals HC would have made sure he protected Burrow better, just like he is doing for Herbert.
            Its not the QBs,they both are gifted. Its the preparation by the coaching staff or lack thereof, that is part of the equation.
            Herbert would have the worse QBR and Burrow the better if they switched teams.
            Hopefully Bengals don't get him too beat up.
            Burrow was sack 7 times vs Ravens last week and 22 times on the year.
            Herbert only been sacked 9 times in the 4 games even though line is missing 3 starters Pouncey, Turner and Bulaga. Credit to Lynn.
            :hello:
            I appreciate that when you decide to be wrong, you really go for it so you can be spectacularly and entertainingly wrong.

            No, Lynn is not a better head coach than Zac Taylor. We have a better team (as you recognized), but a worse record and worse head coach.

            No, if you switched the QBs, Herbert would not suddenly be worse than Burrow. Herbert is more physically gifted and simply better than Burrow. Burrow was never worthy of being the #1 pick overall and was not worthy of being the first QB selected.

            As for last week's 7 sacks, Burrow himself has admitted that he needs to do a better job of feeling the pass rush and getting the ball out faster. That is not the first game in which he has had that problem.

            Just admit it, Herbert has been the better QB so far. Stop trying to make up weak excuses for Burrow.

            If Herbert had attempted as many passes as Burrow and been sacked at the same rate that he (Herbert) has been sacked at so far this year, he would have been sacked 13 times. The difference between the 13 and the 22 is purely the difference between Burrow holding the ball too long versus Herbert doing a better job of feeling the rush and scrambling. Neither OL is very good.

            Finally, why should Lynn get any credit for Herbert feeling the pass rush better than Burrow, scrambling better than Burrow, or for Herbert even being on the field at all. Lynn is the moron that decided to start Tyrod Taylor over Herbert.

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            • FoutsFan
              Registered Charger Fan
              • Feb 2019
              • 2488
              • Birmingham AL
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              #18
              Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post

              ESPN's Total QBR is not recognized by the NFL as an oficial stat for good reason. Read their discussion of Clutch Index. A QB that blows the other team away with brilliant QB play early gets scored less than a QB who plays a lesser game, but happens to do it is a close game, a game that is only close because the lesser QB did not put the other team away early. And the QB's own defense can contribute to his QB rating by letting the other team score. That is absolute crap.

              Other using that flawed, unrecognized stat that ESPN made up, your conlusion that Herbert has outperformed Burrow is sound.

              In this instance, you can get to the same result by using raw stats and using the real QB rating of the QBs.
              Thank you! That ESPN QB stat is a total joke. It is only there to be laughed at, mocked and disparaged.

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              • JustAnotherFan
                Registered Charger Fan
                • Apr 2020
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                #19
                Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post

                ESPN's Total QBR is not recognized by the NFL as an oficial stat for good reason. Read their discussion of Clutch Index. A QB that blows the other team away with brilliant QB play early gets scored less than a QB who plays a lesser game, but happens to do it is a close game, a game that is only close because the lesser QB did not put the other team away early. And the QB's own defense can contribute to his QB rating by letting the other team score. That is absolute crap.

                Other using that flawed, unrecognized stat that ESPN made up, your conlusion that Herbert has outperformed Burrow is sound.

                In this instance, you can get to the same result by using raw stats and using the real QB rating of the QBs.
                ESPN's QBR is proprietary, ESPN keeps the exact forumul secret, so of course it is not recognized by the NFL.

                It DOES adjust for the difficulty of the opponents defense, something passer rating does not.
                It DOES discount for garbage time stats, something passer rating does not.

                In addition, passer rating ONLY rates passing.
                A QB can make 10 turnovers via fumbles, and it does not effect their passer rating.
                A QB can convert 3rd and 20 late in the game via a scramble (Mahomes vs Chargers) and it will not effect their passer rating.
                Note: in the Chargers vs Chiefs game, Herbert has the higher passer rating, but Mahomes had the higher QBR.
                Those Mahomes scrambes were KEY to why the Chiefs won, and QBR takes that into account.

                I do NOT think ESPN's QBR is perfect, but it is is FAR FAR FAR FAR better than passer rating.

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                • Critty
                  Dominate the Day.
                  • Mar 2019
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                  #20
                  Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post

                  No, Lynn is not a better head coach than Zac Taylor.
                  :LOL:

                  Zac Taylor team was the worst team in football last year. Thats how you earn the #1 pick. And he lost to Lynn this year. Taylor has not done anything to be graded ahead of Lynn as a HC. The entire football world knows that except you.

                  Go ahead respond with a repeat laundry list of your tired old justifications & spin. Im still backing Lynn because I think he is a great football HC.

                  One last thing. You lost this debate.
                  And even if you think you won. Then Let me be wrong. You don't have to keep trying to convince me you're right.
                  Who has it better than us?

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                  • powderblueboy
                    Registered Charger Fan
                    • Jul 2017
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                    #21
                    Originally posted by Critty View Post

                    :LOL:

                    Zac Taylor team was the worst team in football last year. Thats how you earn the #1 pick. And he lost to Lynn this year. Taylor has not done anything to be graded ahead of Lynn as a HC. The entire football world knows that except you.

                    Go ahead respond with a repeat laundry list of your tired old justifications & spin. Im still backing Lynn because I think he is a great football HC.

                    One last thing. You lost this debate.
                    And even if you think you won. Then Let me be wrong. You don't have to keep trying to convince me you're right.
                    If Lynn is a great football HC, then what does that make Belichick and Andy Reid, who routinely makes Lynn and his coaching staff look foolish when they play?

                    Gods? Immortals?

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                    • like54ninjas
                      Registered Charger Fan
                      • Oct 2017
                      • 8211
                      • Great White North
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                      #22
                      Originally posted by powderblueboy View Post

                      If Lynn is a great football HC, then what does that make Belichick and Andy Reid, who routinely makes Lynn and his coaching staff look foolish when they play?

                      Gods? Immortals?
                      Billy boy has 6 SBRings as a HC so yes.
                      Fat Andy more of a minor demigod.
                      My 2021 Adopt-A-Bolt List

                      MikeDub
                      K9
                      Nasir
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                      • Boltjolt
                        Dont let the PBs fool ya
                        • Jun 2013
                        • 26263
                        • Henderson, NV
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                        #23
                        Originally posted by PR#1 View Post
                        Thank God we didnt listen to some of the posters on this board that wanted to trade away our first round picks for the next 3 years to trade up 5 spots !!

                        I always said that burrow would be an average QB due to his limited arm strength and that he was surrounded by an All Pro team at LSU.

                        Critty are you ready to eat Crow on this one?

                        Thank God the uninformed fans don't run this team !
                        i still think Burrow is going to be a good one. Hec he is 5 games into his rookie year on a worse team.
                        We have better weapons than the Bengals have. AJ Green is a shell of himself and id take Keenan all day over him.

                        Now Herbert is doing a lot better than i thought he would out of the gate. I said he needs a lot of work but didnt know be was a honer student lol. Good thing.

                        Now if the rest of this badly run franchise can get it together.
                        Last edited by Boltjolt; 10-17-2020, 06:49 PM.

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                        • #24
                          Originally posted by Critty View Post

                          :LOL:

                          Zac Taylor team was the worst team in football last year. Thats how you earn the #1 pick. And he lost to Lynn this year. Taylor has not done anything to be graded ahead of Lynn as a HC. The entire football world knows that except you.

                          Go ahead respond with a repeat laundry list of your tired old justifications & spin. Im still backing Lynn because I think he is a great football HC.

                          One last thing. You lost this debate.
                          And even if you think you won. Then Let me be wrong. You don't have to keep trying to convince me you're right.
                          I agree that Zac Tayor's team has much less talent than our team. They earned the #1 overall pick and drafted a worse player at #1 overall than we drafted at #6 overall. Yet, the Bengals have a better record than we do. The difference is that the Bengals are coached better than we are, so that is how, despite being a less talented team, they have a slightly better record than we have.

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