Film Study - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly (week 5 vs NO)

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  • #13
    Originally posted by NoMoreChillies View Post

    So after analysing the play you asked for:


    I say it was absolutely a good play call. If Tevi makes that block, Jackson is 1on1 with safety and outside blocking giving him a lane to get out of bounds. The 3 recievers on the other side were well covered by 4 defenders. It was similar to a play run in the 1st Q which went for big gain, so a good choice to come back to it and slow down that pass rush:


    See almost identical plays. Good blocking makes it work, bad blocking makes it fail. Cant blame coaches for this one.
    I appreciate your effort in posting the videos, but I strongly disagree with your view as to what makes a called play good or bad from a strategy standpoint. I also disagree with any suggestion that the play in question almost worked for a big gain. That play was nowhere close to producing a big gain as two defenders tackled Jackson and another 3 were in the immediate area.

    We had the ball at our 20 with only 47 seconds left.

    If I counted correctly, to that point in the game, our RBs had run the ball 24 times and produced a gain of greater than 6 yards exactly 3 times. So, 87.5% of the time, such a call produced a gain of 6 yards or less with the likely outcome that the RB would be tackled in bounds causing the clock to continue to run. I would say that the 87.5% figure is fairly predictive of the likely outcome. The run actually was credited for 3 yards (I think it was originally credited for 4) and we averaged 3.5 yards running the ball the entire game. I submit that the result of that play call was right in the middle of the expected play outcomes as evidenced by the first 59 minutes of the game.

    And our coaches should have known the result that happened was in the middle of the range of expected outcomes. A play call based upon the notion that the play might work for a big gain against a strong statistical likelihood to the contrary if everyone blocks perfectly, ignores the reality that on most plays the blocking does not produce a huge advantage for one team as the other team's players get paid to make that blocking not work.

    Contrast the running play result with the two most likely outcomes of a passing play. To that point in the game, Herbert had completed more than 50% of his passes and the average completion was 14.3 yards. The next most likely outcome was an incomplete pass, which, while not useful at moving the ball, does have the positive effect when there is little time remaining of stopping the clock. Those results, completion and incompletion, accounted for about 90% of the dropbacks. I submit that both are better than the expected result for a running play in that situation.

    While any play can produce an unexpectedly large gain at any point in the game, that does not make the play call a good play call from a strategy standpoint. Passing the ball in that situation is a statistically superior strategy based upon the expected outcomes of the play.

    There is a reason why teams with intelligent coaches pass the ball almost exclusively when there is very little time left on the clock and the team needs to drive the ball 40-50 yards to get into FG range.

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    • jamrock
      lawyers, guns and money
      • Sep 2017
      • 13117
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      #14
      We really missed Derwin James on that long td pass to Jared Cook. The young LBs couldn’t stay close and Nasir was easily fooled.

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      • NoMoreChillies
        Outback Goon
        • Sep 2018
        • 1608
        • Australia
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        #15
        Originally posted by Topcat View Post
        Nice work, Chili. Maybe the Bolts should go to a Cover-2 at times, with two deep free safeties. Adderley was too busy watching the play on his left, and was too late to commit to stopping the play to his right.
        i think White was supposed to drop into that cover 2 position, but he didnt and looked like he thought he had help over the top. Did White "run the wrong route" etc?

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        • NoMoreChillies
          Outback Goon
          • Sep 2018
          • 1608
          • Australia
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          #16
          Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post

          I appreciate your effort in posting the videos, but I strongly disagree with your view as to what makes a called play good or bad from a strategy standpoint. I also disagree with any suggestion that the play in question almost worked for a big gain. That play was nowhere close to producing a big gain as two defenders tackled Jackson and another 3 were in the immediate area.

          We had the ball at our 20 with only 47 seconds left.

          If I counted correctly, to that point in the game, our RBs had run the ball 24 times and produced a gain of greater than 6 yards exactly 3 times. So, 87.5% of the time, such a call produced a gain of 6 yards or less with the likely outcome that the RB would be tackled in bounds causing the clock to continue to run. I would say that the 87.5% figure is fairly predictive of the likely outcome. The run actually was credited for 3 yards (I think it was originally credited for 4) and we averaged 3.5 yards running the ball the entire game. I submit that the result of that play call was right in the middle of the expected play outcomes as evidenced by the first 59 minutes of the game.

          And our coaches should have known the result that happened was in the middle of the range of expected outcomes. A play call based upon the notion that the play might work for a big gain against a strong statistical likelihood to the contrary if everyone blocks perfectly, ignores the reality that on most plays the blocking does not produce a huge advantage for one team as the other team's players get paid to make that blocking not work.

          Contrast the running play result with the two most likely outcomes of a passing play. To that point in the game, Herbert had completed more than 50% of his passes and the average completion was 14.3 yards. The next most likely outcome was an incomplete pass, which, while not useful at moving the ball, does have the positive effect when there is little time remaining of stopping the clock. Those results, completion and incompletion, accounted for about 90% of the dropbacks. I submit that both are better than the expected result for a running play in that situation.

          While any play can produce an unexpectedly large gain at any point in the game, that does not make the play call a good play call from a strategy standpoint. Passing the ball in that situation is a statistically superior strategy based upon the expected outcomes of the play.

          There is a reason why teams with intelligent coaches pass the ball almost exclusively when there is very little time left on the clock and the team needs to drive the ball 40-50 yards to get into FG range.
          Tevi makes the block removes 1 defender.
          Mdub blocking his defender.
          Jackson would outrun the other 2 defenders coming from his rear as shown in the earlier 1q play. No way in hell 2x DE's are running him down from behind.
          that leaves 1 defender the safety. so 1on1 with an outside lane i like the call.

          as for statistics i never really got into them. Matchups play a bigger role than stats, 2010 Chargers proved this for me.

          Comment

          • Topcat
            AKA "Pollcat"
            • Jan 2019
            • 17432
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            #17
            Originally posted by NoMoreChillies View Post

            i think White was supposed to drop into that cover 2 position, but he didnt and looked like he thought he had help over the top. Did White "run the wrong route" etc?
            Yep...I'm thinking if Derwin was in there instead of White, he would have started backpedaling much earlier to cover that half of the field. Derwin's anticipation and pre-snap positioning is off the charts...

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