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Amidst all the firing talk this season, I think it's interesting to see what changes were done despite the shortened offseason. If we do hire a new HC, it has to be more than just the best scheme for Herbert/offense, and the defense. We need a person who is willing to play to win and uses analytics to gain the advantage like John Harbaugh and Frank Reich does. In which case, we should probably avoid hiring someone defensive minded. Anyways, here's something to read while we wait for Sunday:
The Chargers are through their surprise bye week. They are 1-4 as they prepare to play the Jaguars at home on Sunday. Players were at the facility every day during the bye to undergo COVID-19 testing, but otherwise they were off. They returned on Monday for workouts and will be back on the practice field Wednesday for the first time in 10 days.
As we expected heading into 2020, much has changed about this iteration of the Chargers. Of course, rookie Justin Herbert is now the team’s starting quarterback, and he has vastly exceeded expectations through his first four NFL starts. But the changes run deeper than merely personnel. This season, the way the Chargers are operating on the field is in stark contrast to how they functioned in 2019.
With a break in action and five games of data to peruse, now is a good time to analyze these differences. What has changed? What hasn’t?
Here are some statistical trends I have noticed so far this season, on offense and defense.
Trend No. 1: More play action
Play-action rate, 2019: 20.7 percent
Play-action rate, 2020: 32.3 percent
This is easily the most discernible difference for the Chargers’ offense from last year to this year, and it represents the backbone of the scheme changes head coach Anthony Lynn and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen implemented in the abbreviated offseason.
The Chargers used play action on just more than a fifth of Philip Rivers’ dropbacks last season. Rivers ranked 27th among qualified quarterbacks in play-action rate in 2019. Through his four starts, Herbert ranks 11th. That is a significant turnaround.
This is largely a product of having a more mobile quarterback. Herbert obviously can cover more ground than Rivers, which is paramount in running play action. Herbert is also more deft in the pocket than Rivers at this stage of his career. That has opened up options for Steichen, including, most notably, play-action bootlegs both to the right and left sides. The bootleg has become a staple of the 2020 Chargers offense. It was something they simply could not run with Rivers as their quarterback.
(Figures from Pro Football Focus)
Trend No. 2: More snaps from under center
Under center rate, 2019: 30 percent
Under center rate, 2020: 39 percent
The Chargers are lining up under center on nine percent more of their offensive snaps in 2020. They went from well below average in this area last season to above average so far this season. Using more play action will naturally lead to more under-center snaps, as a majority of fake handoffs will come from those formations. The mobility of the quarterback is also a factor here. Passing out of under-center formations requires more movement, especially on five- and seven-step drops. Rivers always preferred shotgun. A quarterback is generally in a more pass-ready position when taking a shotgun snap.
Another interesting wrinkle that isn’t entirely evident from the numbers listed above: The Chargers have run 25 plays out of the pistol formation this season, the fifth-most in the NFL through six weeks despite playing one fewer game than most teams. The Chargers only ran 11 plays out of pistol last season. So the Chargers are using shotgun even less often than the above numbers would initially indicate.
(Figures from Sharp Football Stats)
Justin Herbert, who ran a shotgun offense at Oregon, is adjusting to life under center. (Kirby Lee / USA Today)
Trend No. 3: More multiple tight end sets
Multiple tight end formation rate, 2019: 13 percent
Multiple tight end formation rate, 2020: 23 percent
This has been a fascinating development in 2020 and is another example of just how much the Chargers’ offensive scheme has changed from last season. They used multiple tight ends on 13 percent of their offensive snaps on 2019. That has jumped to 23 percent through five games this season. The most notable increase has come with personnel packages in which the Chargers use one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers — referred to as 12 personnel. (The digits indicate the number of running backs and tight ends on the field, in that order. So, for example, 11 personnel means one running back and one tight end.)
The Chargers used 12 personnel at the lowest rate of any team in the league last season: 8 percent. This season, they are using 12 personnel on 16 percent of their offensive plays, which is much closer to the league average of 19 percent. The heavier personnel doesn’t mean more runs, though. The Chargers are passing out of 12 personnel 40 percent of the time.
What is most interesting here is that the Chargers’ personnel hasn’t really changed in the tight end room. Hunter Henry and Virgil Green are still the top two tight ends. Stephen Anderson, who has played the third-most snaps at tight end for the Chargers this season, was with the team last year on the practice squad. So it isn’t like the Chargers added a ton of talent at tight end and switched up their package frequencies to get their best players on the field. This is a clear indication of a philosophical development.
(Figures from Sharp Football Stats)
Trend No. 4: More third-down blitzing
Chargers blitz rate
Lynn made it clear during the offseason that he wanted to be more aggressive on defense. He did not feel like Gus Bradley’s unit got pressure on the quarterback consistently enough. The assumption heading into this season, then, was we would see more blitzing from Bradley, who philosophically does not love to blitz often, especially compared to some of the more aggressive defensive coordinators in the NFL.
That has not really come to fruition, though. The Chargers ranked last in the league in blitz percentage in 2019 at 14.5 percent of defensive plays. This season, they are actually blitzing less frequently at 12.6 percent, which also ranks last in the league through six weeks.
The Chargers are actually blitzing less on first and second down than they did last season. But they have blitzed more on third downs, which has been clear when watching the film. Their 26.9 percent third-down blitz rate ranks 24th in the league. In 2019, they ranked 28th in third-down blitz rate. However, that increased blitzing on third down has not affected their bottom line.
I asked Lynn specifically about this last week. Has the defense been as aggressive as he had hoped entering this season?
“We are blitzing, but we’re not a blitz-zero team,” Lynn said, using a football term for an all-out blitz. “We just haven’t done six or seven guys and then play Cover-0 behind it. We have a different scheme, a different strategy. That’s why, most of the time, we keep the points down. We like to keep everything in front of us. But that can change, based on situations.”
“We’ve widened out techniques with our ends,” Lynn continued, referring to how wide the defensive ends are aligning pre-snap. “We’re doing different things with those guys, with our defensive line, so they can be a little more aggressive. But we did all that with certain guys. And a lot of those guys are really not even on the field right now.”
The Chargers are obviously very injured on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. And as Lynn alluded to, that has stunted some of the scheme tweaks the Chargers hoped to make. We could see the blitz rates increase over the remainder of the season.
(Figures from SportsRadar)
Trend No. 5: Dime package has disappeared
Dime percentage, 2019: 18.3 percent
Dime percentage, 2020: 0.9 percent
The dime package — which means six defensive backs on the field — was a staple of Bradley’s defense in 2019. Last season, the Chargers were in dime on 18.3 percent of their defensive snaps, which was the 12th highest rate in the league. Even further, they played dime on more than half (52 percent) of their third downs. They were in this personnel package on almost all of their third-and-long situations, even after Adrian Phillips went down with an injury in Week 2.
The dime package has been all but eradicated from Bradley’s playbook so far this season. The Chargers have been in dime in less than 1 percent of their snaps through five games. They have played three snaps of dime all season, and all three came against the Saints in Week 5. It was different than their dime package in 2019, though, when they only had one linebacker on the field. The dime package they played in New Orleans featured two linebackers and only three defensive linemen.
A lot of this comes down to personnel. The Chargers have more depth and athleticism at linebacker, even with Drue Tranquill’s injury, so they can afford to keep two linebackers — rookie Kenneth Murray and Kyzir White — on the field in third-down passing situations. The Chargers are remaining in nickel (five DBs) more often as a result. Their nickel rate has increased from 50.4 percent in 2019 to 80.4 percent in 2020, which is the fourth-highest rate in the NFL through six weeks.
(Figures from SportsRadar)
As we expected heading into 2020, much has changed about this iteration of the Chargers. Of course, rookie Justin Herbert is now the team’s starting quarterback, and he has vastly exceeded expectations through his first four NFL starts. But the changes run deeper than merely personnel. This season, the way the Chargers are operating on the field is in stark contrast to how they functioned in 2019.
With a break in action and five games of data to peruse, now is a good time to analyze these differences. What has changed? What hasn’t?
Here are some statistical trends I have noticed so far this season, on offense and defense.
Trend No. 1: More play action
Play-action rate, 2019: 20.7 percent
Play-action rate, 2020: 32.3 percent
This is easily the most discernible difference for the Chargers’ offense from last year to this year, and it represents the backbone of the scheme changes head coach Anthony Lynn and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen implemented in the abbreviated offseason.
The Chargers used play action on just more than a fifth of Philip Rivers’ dropbacks last season. Rivers ranked 27th among qualified quarterbacks in play-action rate in 2019. Through his four starts, Herbert ranks 11th. That is a significant turnaround.
This is largely a product of having a more mobile quarterback. Herbert obviously can cover more ground than Rivers, which is paramount in running play action. Herbert is also more deft in the pocket than Rivers at this stage of his career. That has opened up options for Steichen, including, most notably, play-action bootlegs both to the right and left sides. The bootleg has become a staple of the 2020 Chargers offense. It was something they simply could not run with Rivers as their quarterback.
(Figures from Pro Football Focus)
Trend No. 2: More snaps from under center
Under center rate, 2019: 30 percent
Under center rate, 2020: 39 percent
The Chargers are lining up under center on nine percent more of their offensive snaps in 2020. They went from well below average in this area last season to above average so far this season. Using more play action will naturally lead to more under-center snaps, as a majority of fake handoffs will come from those formations. The mobility of the quarterback is also a factor here. Passing out of under-center formations requires more movement, especially on five- and seven-step drops. Rivers always preferred shotgun. A quarterback is generally in a more pass-ready position when taking a shotgun snap.
Another interesting wrinkle that isn’t entirely evident from the numbers listed above: The Chargers have run 25 plays out of the pistol formation this season, the fifth-most in the NFL through six weeks despite playing one fewer game than most teams. The Chargers only ran 11 plays out of pistol last season. So the Chargers are using shotgun even less often than the above numbers would initially indicate.
(Figures from Sharp Football Stats)
Justin Herbert, who ran a shotgun offense at Oregon, is adjusting to life under center. (Kirby Lee / USA Today)
Trend No. 3: More multiple tight end sets
Multiple tight end formation rate, 2019: 13 percent
Multiple tight end formation rate, 2020: 23 percent
This has been a fascinating development in 2020 and is another example of just how much the Chargers’ offensive scheme has changed from last season. They used multiple tight ends on 13 percent of their offensive snaps on 2019. That has jumped to 23 percent through five games this season. The most notable increase has come with personnel packages in which the Chargers use one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers — referred to as 12 personnel. (The digits indicate the number of running backs and tight ends on the field, in that order. So, for example, 11 personnel means one running back and one tight end.)
The Chargers used 12 personnel at the lowest rate of any team in the league last season: 8 percent. This season, they are using 12 personnel on 16 percent of their offensive plays, which is much closer to the league average of 19 percent. The heavier personnel doesn’t mean more runs, though. The Chargers are passing out of 12 personnel 40 percent of the time.
What is most interesting here is that the Chargers’ personnel hasn’t really changed in the tight end room. Hunter Henry and Virgil Green are still the top two tight ends. Stephen Anderson, who has played the third-most snaps at tight end for the Chargers this season, was with the team last year on the practice squad. So it isn’t like the Chargers added a ton of talent at tight end and switched up their package frequencies to get their best players on the field. This is a clear indication of a philosophical development.
(Figures from Sharp Football Stats)
Trend No. 4: More third-down blitzing
Chargers blitz rate
| 1st Down | 8.3% (32nd) | 8% (32nd) |
| 2nd Down | 11.5% (32nd) | 8% (32nd) |
| 3rd Down | 25.2% (28th) | 26.9% (24th) |
| Overall | 14.5% (32nd) | 12.6% (32nd) |
That has not really come to fruition, though. The Chargers ranked last in the league in blitz percentage in 2019 at 14.5 percent of defensive plays. This season, they are actually blitzing less frequently at 12.6 percent, which also ranks last in the league through six weeks.
The Chargers are actually blitzing less on first and second down than they did last season. But they have blitzed more on third downs, which has been clear when watching the film. Their 26.9 percent third-down blitz rate ranks 24th in the league. In 2019, they ranked 28th in third-down blitz rate. However, that increased blitzing on third down has not affected their bottom line.
I asked Lynn specifically about this last week. Has the defense been as aggressive as he had hoped entering this season?
“We are blitzing, but we’re not a blitz-zero team,” Lynn said, using a football term for an all-out blitz. “We just haven’t done six or seven guys and then play Cover-0 behind it. We have a different scheme, a different strategy. That’s why, most of the time, we keep the points down. We like to keep everything in front of us. But that can change, based on situations.”
“We’ve widened out techniques with our ends,” Lynn continued, referring to how wide the defensive ends are aligning pre-snap. “We’re doing different things with those guys, with our defensive line, so they can be a little more aggressive. But we did all that with certain guys. And a lot of those guys are really not even on the field right now.”
The Chargers are obviously very injured on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. And as Lynn alluded to, that has stunted some of the scheme tweaks the Chargers hoped to make. We could see the blitz rates increase over the remainder of the season.
(Figures from SportsRadar)
Trend No. 5: Dime package has disappeared
Dime percentage, 2019: 18.3 percent
Dime percentage, 2020: 0.9 percent
The dime package — which means six defensive backs on the field — was a staple of Bradley’s defense in 2019. Last season, the Chargers were in dime on 18.3 percent of their defensive snaps, which was the 12th highest rate in the league. Even further, they played dime on more than half (52 percent) of their third downs. They were in this personnel package on almost all of their third-and-long situations, even after Adrian Phillips went down with an injury in Week 2.
The dime package has been all but eradicated from Bradley’s playbook so far this season. The Chargers have been in dime in less than 1 percent of their snaps through five games. They have played three snaps of dime all season, and all three came against the Saints in Week 5. It was different than their dime package in 2019, though, when they only had one linebacker on the field. The dime package they played in New Orleans featured two linebackers and only three defensive linemen.
A lot of this comes down to personnel. The Chargers have more depth and athleticism at linebacker, even with Drue Tranquill’s injury, so they can afford to keep two linebackers — rookie Kenneth Murray and Kyzir White — on the field in third-down passing situations. The Chargers are remaining in nickel (five DBs) more often as a result. Their nickel rate has increased from 50.4 percent in 2019 to 80.4 percent in 2020, which is the fourth-highest rate in the NFL through six weeks.
(Figures from SportsRadar)
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