2021 Official Chargers Season Discusssion

[Bolt4Knob]

Neither Floyd or Williams has true deep speed. They are long striders. Both take time to build their speed. In track they would be poor 50 to 100 meter sprinters, but better in the 200-400 m range. It is often a function of long legs, which take longer to take each stride but once the stride gets to full length, then they cover more distance per step, and the extra distance (per step) adds up.

Guyton and Johnson both have much better overall speed. Both are 4.3 40 guys, while WIlliams and Floyd were 4.5 guys. Guyton and Johnson are the kind of players who can get behind a D, while Floyd and Willaims are the kind that are probably going to win the jump ball downfield. All 4 of them are OK deep threats. Johnson and Guyton speed is more dangerous overall in that they can run shorter routes and use their speed to get YAC.

Floyd and Williams are not going to be very good in running short routes. They have the size to break tackles, but neither can get away from the DB very fast.

The biggest issue between the different receivers is that neither of the newer players is going to do much as a run blocker. If a running game is going to get big, chunk running plays, the WR HAVE to block downfield. Williams has gotten better in that regard, but Johnson and Guyton need some work there. But, in either case, you don't judge any player on just one aspect or not. None of these guy (MW, Guyton and Johnson) is such a dangerous deep threat that you would keep them just because of that one aspect of their game. It is a combination of all the different qualities. Deep, intermediate and short receiving... running after the catch ... route running ... catching the ball ... catch radius ... how they compete for the ball ... there are a lot of factors, and they all add up to how good a player is.

The biggest issue in who may be on the roster next season is that MW is getting paid a premiere money, but is not giving premiere WR production. He is going to be paid $15 mill next season, which is a lot of money for 48 catches 756 yards and 5 TD. That is solid production, but the other NFL players who are paid what he is, or more are much more productive players. Attached is the Over the cap list, based on the season that was just finished up.
WR salaries.png

The Charges have a fair amount of cap space, but it just depends on what they feel MW future is. Is he going to want to get paid like the $15 mill per season for his next deal, because that is a terrible deal for the Chargers, a huge bump up in a shrinking salary cap. Or will he be reasonable and go for a more market value amount?

Guyton and Johnson are the kind of players who add vertical stretch to our offense that we haven't had. Most teams are looking for guys with 4.3 speed. Even KC, who is the fastest WR group in the league. That kind of speed forces DB to sit back, align deeper and just be more hesitant. That opens up things for the players underneath. Guys like Allen, HH and Ekeler would all thrive with that kind of speed creating space between the underneath coverage and the deep defenders.

A lot of going to depend on how aggressive the team decides to be in FA. $15 mill is a lot of money to use towards some other positions if that is the route they want. But FA is always a poor way to spend money, so overpaying for MW modest production is one option, but if all depends on how reasonable he is going to be going forward, particuarly since he is the better player overall.

Can pretty much guarantee Mike Williams will not be paid 15.6m next year. Either he re-does his deal or he will be a FA. And the Chargers would be stupid to give him a one year deal for 15.6m. Either they think he is the long term answer at WR or move on. For 15.6m they could get Kenny Golladay who is a helluva lot better or other receivers. Personally, I think he needs to be at most 40/4 type of receiver

[Steve]

Can pretty much guarantee Mike Williams will not be paid 15.6m next year. Either he re-does his deal or he will be a FA. And the Chargers would be stupid to give him a one year deal for 15.6m. Either they think he is the long term answer at WR or move on. For 15.6m they could get Kenny Golladay who is a helluva lot better or other receivers. Personally, I think he needs to be at most 40/4 type of receiver

We can't redo the deal. It is his 5th year option. It is "non-negotiable", which I take to mean we either pay him for the 5th year, or cut him.

Again, we can sign the money for FA, but putting the cash in a pile and burning it would like be more productive. FA is a poor use of salary cap space. It doesn't work well, especially when you sign the higher end guys. We can and probably will do it, but history says it won't work.

The production is based on his first 3 years, but that doesn't mean it won't improve some, and for that reason we might keep him. It just depends on how well his game is improving.

It also depends on whether or not we intend to spend the money on other FA. Again, history says that it is a waste of money, and if we aren't going to spend on another player, then we don't need to free up cash. There are other players who will almost certainly not be returning, who are much worse use of salary cap space.

[Bolt4Knob]

We can't redo the deal. It is his 5th year option. It is "non-negotiable", which I take to mean we either pay him for the 5th year, or cut him.

Again, we can sign the money for FA, but putting the cash in a pile and burning it would like be more productive. FA is a poor use of salary cap space. It doesn't work well, especially when you sign the higher end guys. We can and probably will do it, but history says it won't work.

The production is based on his first 3 years, but that doesn't mean it won't improve some, and for that reason we might keep him. It just depends on how well his game is improving.

It also depends on whether or not we intend to spend the money on other FA. Again, history says that it is a waste of money, and if we aren't going to spend on another player, then we don't need to free up cash. There are other players who will almost certainly not be returning, who are much worse use of salary cap space.

I don't disagree with you about free agency. Casey Hayward originally signed for 16m for 3 years I believe or thereabouts. And he got better with the Chargers. Those are the players I want Telesco to sign - guys that might be under utilized and in a new system perform better

As for Mike Williams - my guess is they rescind the offer, he becomes a free agent and the Chargers negotiate with him a new contract. Or he moves on. Ijust think with a lower cap - the team would be foolish to spend that much on Williams when there would be other options either at WR or other positions.

[CTrout]

It seems that bringing back CB Michael Davis is a popular choice on this board.
I really, really need someone to convince me on why! I'm serious..... imo he sucks.

I'm willing to admit that my player evaluation could be terrible but week after week I've seen MD get beat over and over. Am I missing something?

[Bolt4Knob]

It seems that bringing back CB Michael Davis is a popular choice on this board.
I really, really need someone to convince me on why! I'm serious..... imo he sucks.

I'm willing to admit that my player evaluation could be terrible but week after week I've seen MD get beat over and over. Am I missing something?

I think this - with the salary cap lower it will affect many teams this year - I think more than ever. I mean the Saints, Packers, Rams Steelers hvae some work to do to get under the cap

The Chargers are in a good spot having the 10th most cap space as of today and the ability to get much more

To me, I am being cautious with signing my own free agents until I see the landscape of players who are either released or available in Free Agency. There just might be better options and with the ability to be strategic and aggressive. That doesn't mean overpay - that means doing your damn homework, scouting and finding the right fit for your team

Another point - at present, per Spotrac, the Chargers have the 7th most available cap space in 2022 - so in essence - for the RIGHT players, they can do a little robbing from 2021 for the bill to come due in 2022.

So Hunter Henry, Mike Davis, Rayshawn Jenkins - if there are better options after teams release players - they need to be reviewed. At present, I probably want to keep Davis and Henry and see what the market is for Jenkins. Players might take less - say 3/20 when in a normal cap year they would get 3/25. The money will dry up quicker this year.

[like54ninjas]

It seems that bringing back CB Michael Davis is a popular choice on this board.
I really, really need someone to convince me on why! I'm serious..... imo he sucks.

I'm willing to admit that my player evaluation could be terrible but week after week I've seen MD get beat over and over. Am I missing something?

He does get beat on occasion as all CB do.
MD43 has dramatically improved each season leading to 2020 with 3 INT (1TD), 14 PBUs, 64 TKL, 7.0 YPT, and a 79.2 QBR.
He needs to to continue to improve his tackling. He also is aggressive and can bite on double moves.
Mike is an ascending player with ideal physical traits for the position.

[SYB]

Mike Williams is not slow. No he isn't as fast as Guyton or Johnson. But he is fast enough to be a Deep threat and if he has a defender he goes to get the ball. Something we complained about that Tyrrell did Not do with defenders around him.

Most aren't home runs but they are big chunk deep throws.

Keep in mind these are Rivers throwing to him and some of these are underthrown but I'd certainly call him a Deep threat.

Check out at 3:25 of this one. It's a end around and look at his cut back and burst to get the TD.

When he gets his chances he comes thru but Keenan gets 140-150 targets a year alone.

No, he's not at all. He's big and strong enough to go up over guys, after he's rambled down the field.

[Boltjolt]

I don't disagree with you about free agency. Casey Hayward originally signed for 16m for 3 years I believe or thereabouts. And he got better with the Chargers. Those are the players I want Telesco to sign - guys that might be under utilized and in a new system perform better

As for Mike Williams - my guess is they rescind the offer, he becomes a free agent and the Chargers negotiate with him a new contract. Or he moves on. Ijust think with a lower cap - the team would be foolish to spend that much on Williams when there would be other options either at WR or other positions.

If they are allowed to recind it then sure thats teh best option but being a top 10 , can they recind a 5th year option?

[Boltjolt]

It seems that bringing back CB Michael Davis is a popular choice on this board.
I really, really need someone to convince me on why! I'm serious..... imo he sucks.

I'm willing to admit that my player evaluation could be terrible but week after week I've seen MD get beat over and over. Am I missing something?

You may have the numbers 26 and 43 mixed up. He wasnt a shut down but this was his best season. 26 was burned over and over.

[Bolt4Knob]

If they are allowed to recind it then sure thats teh best option but being a top 10 , can they recind a 5th year option?

First day of new year Williams contract is guaranteed - I think its around March 18 this year the new league starts.

[like54ninjas]

If they are allowed to recind it then sure thats teh best option but being a top 10 , can they recind a 5th year option?

Yes. Has to be done before the league year starts I believe.

[Charge!]

I could see Staley trying to get some key pieces from his Rams defense. He has stated how important guys like Troy Hill was. John Johnson a 100% snap guy. Leonard Floyd a full time edge guy. He wasn't just a situational pass rusher. I think he could see big money though.

May not be a popular idea here but i have no problem paying money for a kicker like Koo. lol

Chargers upcoming free agents.

Screen Shot 2021-01-24 at 10.23.39 AM.png

Thats alot of guys so many decisions for the new HC, TT and entire staff to make.....could be a much different team next season....