Herbert > Lawrence (55% odds)

[DragonIce]

I fire up the Trevor Lawrence highlight reel on YouTube. What do I see? Mostly Lawrence hitting wide open receivers (current or soon-to-be pro players) beating lesser players (guys who will soon be battling for jobs at State Farm or Subway.) The reel almost gets boring. The defense has so little talent to stop him. Too easy.

Take nothing away from Lawrence, but how can you really grade him when he's on a Battleship and the other team is a tugboat? And the same issue torpedoes our assessment of most quarterbacks. Top QB draft picks are usually in superior situations, cruise missiles bombing bunny rabbits. They make it look easy because the supporting cast, coaching and system they landed in... make it easy.

We don't have that cloud with Herbert. We've seen what he does against NFL defenses. We know he's just as big as Lawrence with a similar cannon arm, and runs similarly well. Justin squared off against the best in the world in the Major League...and walked away with Rookie-of-The-Year.

Which brings us to this: If you put a gun to my head right now, how would I rate the odds of ultimate success for Herbert and Lawrence? Who will be the best quarterback?

It is close, but I'd choose Herbert. And this week I'll explain why.

Go ahead, Jags, and get you some. Lick it up. Enjoy the party. But your cherished child won't be as good as Justin.

[gzubeck]

I fire up the Trevor Lawrence highlight reel on YouTube. What do I see? Mostly Lawrence hitting wide open receivers (current or soon-to-be pro players) beating lesser players (guys who will soon be battling for jobs at State Farm or Subway.) The reel almost gets boring. The defense has so little talent to stop him. Too easy.

Take nothing away from Lawrence, but how can you really grade him when he's on a Battleship and the other team is a tugboat? And the same issue torpedoes our assessment of most quarterbacks. Top QB draft picks are usually in superior situations. They make it look easy because the supporting cast, coaching and system they landed in... make it easy.

We don't have that cloud with Herbert. We've seen what he does against NFL defenses. We know he's just as big as Lawrence with a similar cannon arm, and runs similarly well. Justin squared off against the best in the world in the Major League...and walked away with Rookie-of-The-Year.

Which brings us to this: If you put a gun to my head right now, how would I rate the odds of ultimate success for Herbert and Lawrence? Who will be the best quarterback?

It is close, but I'd choose Herbert. And this week I'll explain why.

Go ahead, Jags, and get you some. Lick it up. Enjoy the party. But your cherished child won't be as good as Justin.

After what Herbert did last year I wouldn't even trade him for Lawrence and next years first round pick from the Jaguars!

:beer:

[21&500]

We should bump the Herbert for Watson thread for shits n giggles....

[DragonIce]

After what Herbert did last year I wouldn't even trade him for Lawrence and next years first round pick from the Jaguars!

The extra #1 pick is inviting...

I'd have to think on that trade offer a little bit, my friend.

If pressed...
:waiting:


I maybe, might, perhaps...in some scenario would...could....should possibly agree!

[DragonIce]

We should bump the Herbert for Watson thread for shits n giggles....

Think that thread was before my time here.

Watson's going to have a tough time proving himself while on league suspension...then returning to the trash-pile team known as the Texans. Besides all that: I'd say: Herbert > Watson.

[Lone Bolt]

The extra #1 pick is inviting...

I'd have to think on that trade offer a little bit, my friend.

If pressed...
:waiting:


I maybe, might, perhaps...in some scenario would...could....should possibly agree!

I don't think so.

A bird in hand....

[RTPbolt]

We know far more about Herbert and his abilities in the NFL than we do Lawrence. Sure Lawrence looks like the next great QB but boy how many times have we heard that? We know the character, intelligence and aptitude of Herbert and the sky is the limit on him. Granted its based off 1 year of data but we know far more now about him than on draft day 2020....far far more. Nothing's guaranteed either he will continue as he did last year but there isn't anything that makes me think JH had bad tendencies that defenses are going to expose.

I wouldn't take that risk of a trade even if we got an extra 1. Build around JH with a real pass protecting and run blocking line and see how far this takes us....oh yah....get the defense fixed too....its really why we lost most games last year.

[equivocation]

I don't think so.

A bird in hand....

Considering what teams are paying to move up for QBs it's more like 3 birds in the hand is worth 4 in the bush.

[foreigner]

Herbert is an All-Universe suprise that no one expected....I'm staying with that. Not comparing to anyone.

[DragonIce]

Considering what teams are paying to move up for QBs it's more like 3 birds in the hand is worth 4 in the bush.

I'm losing track of birds and hands! Sure glad we aren't giving up any future picks and sure glad we got Justin

Kinda spooky how similar they are in some ways
-Both 6'6" yet are remarkably fast for size with a little open field wiggle
-Both canon arms
-Lawrence has NCAA title on his belt, JH an NFL ROY.

My hunch is that Justin is a bit superior in processing, and perhaps slightly more accurate. Thus why I'd take him 55/45.

[richpjr]

I love Justin Herbert and I believe I was one of the few here who thought we'd take him and he'd work out. Of course, I did not expect to see what I saw last year out of him - he far exceeded my expectations. Having said that, there is a reason why Lawrence is the highest rated QB since Luck came out. He is going to be very, very good. It's not a contest - they'll both be good QBs.

[CivilBolt]

I'm losing track of birds and hands! Sure glad we aren't giving up any future picks and sure glad we got Justin

Kinda spooky how similar they are in some ways
-Both 6'6" yet are remarkably fast for size with a little open field wiggle
-Both canon arms
-Lawrence has NCAA title on his belt, JH an NFL ROY.

My hunch is that Justin is a bit superior in processing, and perhaps slightly more accurate. Thus why I'd take him 55/45.

Fixed it for you.