Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[Panamamike]

KA is a great receiver but his highest potential is in the slot. Palmer’s a guy that can play on the outside. On 2nd and longs, 3rd downs, and RZ plays, expect to see MW and Palmer lining up outside with KA in the slot.

On 1st downs and instances where we want to stretch the field expect to see MW and Guyton or Johnson on the outside.

I agree with this. Focusing on situation matchups... Exactly what Staley wants to focus on.

[electricgold]

KA is a great receiver but his highest potential is in the slot. Palmer’s a guy that can play on the outside. On 2nd and longs, 3rd downs, and RZ plays, expect to see MW and Palmer lining up outside with KA in the slot.

On 1st downs and instances where we want to stretch the field expect to see MW and Guyton or Johnson on the outside.

I can see why our NEW HC likes our roster... Let's face it our team was poorly coached these last years and all our players knew it. The players where not used to be most effective and given roles that translated to winning seasons when that ended.

[Guest]

KA is a great receiver but his highest potential is in the slot. Palmer’s a guy that can play on the outside. On 2nd and longs, 3rd downs, and RZ plays, expect to see MW and Palmer lining up outside with KA in the slot.

On 1st downs and instances where we want to stretch the field expect to see MW and Guyton or Johnson on the outside.

Per Rotowire, Allen already led the team in snaps from the slot in 2020. He was only third in snaps outside. Guyton led the team in WR snaps overall and lined up outside just about the same number of times as he lined up in the slot (440 outside, 439 in the slot) and was second on the team in snaps from both alignments. Johnson played far fewer snaps, but lined up predominantly on the outside (64.4% of his snaps).

We already had 3 WRs that were good outside WRs before we even got to Joe Reed, K.J. Hill and the current top practice squad WR, Jason Moore.

Taking the speed that Guyton and Johnson provide to complement the games of Allen and Williams off of the field does not help us at all. It actually makes us worse.

If Palmer can earn the #5 WR spot and bump Joe Reed down to our #6 WR and send K.J. Hill to the practice squad (or gone), that is at least some value added, but it is not much and certainly not worth a 3rd round pick. My reading shows that most had Palmer projected as a round 4-5 guy. (nfl.com had him as a round 4 projection; CBS ranked him #139 overall; The Athletic's consensus big board had him at #149; and Drafttek had him at #182 just to name a few.) We took him at #77 overall.

There is no in game situation on offense that I can think of that I prefer Palmer to either Johnson or Guyton if both Williams and Allen are on the field. In fact, I am not entirely convinced that I would want to see Palmer unless we were using 5 WRs or both Allen and Williams were off of the field.

In the red zone, in particular, I absolutely do not want Palmer on the field as I want to be sure that Parham, Cook, Williams, Allen and Ekeler are all on the field on most plays. In a 3 WR set in the red zone, Guyton is the same height as Palmer and his vertical leap in 3.5" better. So it is not entirely obvious why Palmer should be preferred in that situation either. Also, in the red zone, press coverage seems more likely and Palmer struggles against that.

There was no need to add a WR at all and we passed on some pretty good possibilities at 3-77 (Spencer Brown, Divine Deablo, Ronnie Perkins, Kendrick Green, Wyatt Davis, etc.).

I hope Palmer is better than he appears to be, but I am concerned that he may end up hurting our offense by limiting the snaps of other players that would help the team more.

[Velo]

I continue to believe the reason for the Palmer pick is to replace Mike Will at some point, next season or maybe even this year if another team suddenly becomes needy for a veteran WR and is willing to deal. Palmer and Williams have a similar game. Big, strong hands, able to dominate DBs. Not fast, creating separation not their strong points.

[Formula 21]

Why do fans have Joe Reed over KJ Hill? Hill was more productive in college at a better football school and more (barely) productive last year.

We have new eyes on the coaching staff this year, but I’d bet on the guy with the better history of production over the better athlete.

[Bolt Dude]

Per Rotowire, Allen already led the team in snaps from the slot in 2020. He was only third in snaps outside. Guyton led the team in WR snaps overall and lined up outside just about the same number of times as he lined up in the slot (440 outside, 439 in the slot) and was second on the team in snaps from both alignments. Johnson played far fewer snaps, but lined up predominantly on the outside (64.4% of his snaps).

We already had 3 WRs that were good outside WRs before we even got to Joe Reed, K.J. Hill and the current top practice squad WR, Jason Moore.

Taking the speed that Guyton and Johnson provide to complement the games of Allen and Williams off of the field does not help us at all. It actually makes us worse.

If Palmer can earn the #5 WR spot and bump Joe Reed down to our #6 WR and send K.J. Hill to the practice squad (or gone), that is at least some value added, but it is not much and certainly not worth a 3rd round pick. My reading shows that most had Palmer projected as a round 4-5 guy. (nfl.com had him as a round 4 projection; CBS ranked him #139 overall; The Athletic's consensus big board had him at #149; and Drafttek had him at #182 just to name a few.) We took him at #77 overall.

There is no in game situation on offense that I can think of that I prefer Palmer to either Johnson or Guyton if both Williams and Allen are on the field. In fact, I am not entirely convinced that I would want to see Palmer unless we were using 5 WRs or both Allen and Williams were off of the field.

In the red zone, in particular, I absolutely do not want Palmer on the field as I want to be sure that Parham, Cook, Williams, Allen and Ekeler are all on the field on most plays. In a 3 WR set in the red zone, Guyton is the same height as Palmer and his vertical leap in 3.5" better. So it is not entirely obvious why Palmer should be preferred in that situation either. Also, in the red zone, press coverage seems more likely and Palmer struggles against that.

There was no need to add a WR at all and we passed on some pretty good possibilities at 3-77 (Spencer Brown, Divine Deablo, Ronnie Perkins, Kendrick Green, Wyatt Davis, etc.).

I hope Palmer is better than he appears to be, but I am concerned that he may end up hurting our offense by limiting the snaps of other players that would help the team more.

I had evaluated Palmer as a 5th rounder. But he’s one of those tough calls. How do you properly evaluate a WR’s tape when the QB can’t get him the ball? In other words, reaching for a WR who enjoyed effective QB play is bad, but reaching for a WR without good QB play offers the upside of untapped potential.

Watching TT and Staley‘s post-draft interviews, it’s easy to see that they’re excited about Palmer. They must know something because they’re grinning like a pair of Cheshire cats. I’ll trust their consensus on this one.

Now I’m not going to argue that WR was the highest PON, especially in the 3rd. But I will argue against the take that adding Palmer hurts our WR corps.

Here’s why:
1. Palmer adds variation to exploit situational matchups.
2. Gives leverage for re-signing MW.
3. Provides a quality WR in the case MW isn’t re-signed.
4. KA isn’t young forever. We need to groom a route running possession receiver.
5. Most of our receivers are specialists and Palmer seems to have a more well-rounded skill set.

Snap judgements on a draft rarely pan out—at least in my experience. Having given it time to breathe, I carry 2 reservations. Palmer and McKitty.

If Palmer thrives under effective QB play I’ll be satisfied with the pick.

If McKitty turns out to be an effective blocker I’ll be satisfied with the pick.

Both are TBD.

[Parcells]

I wouldn't have taken Palmer at 77. That said, we did. Let's see what happens. We've got a young stud QB and we've rebuilt the O-line. There are a lot of excellent WRs that went in after the first round. Telesco and the scouts haven't done a great job at finding talent in the later rounds, but part of that may be a lack of proper development by the coaching.

Let's see what the coaching does with Palmer.

[Bolt Dude]

I'll add one more thing I like about Palmer's athletic profile that hasn't been discussed. His arm length (33").

Everyone talks about vertical jump when it comes to 50/50 balls. It's natural to think like that, after all, they're called "jump balls" right? However, before the jump there's always a lot of jostling for position. Long arms allow the receiver to fend a DB from catch points. It's an underrated physical aspect. If a WR can outreach the defender on the ground it creates opportunities for a clean path to the ball. Either that or the DB needs to grab, generating PI calls.

On the other hand, this was something I worried about with Asante Samuel Jr. in the pre-draft process. He's got very short arms and I don't want to see him covering longer receivers too much on go routes. That's why I considered Asante's highest and best value as a NCB.

[equivocation]

KA missed 25% of snaps last year. MW missed 33% of snaps last year. Just backing up those two means 50%+ snaps.

[Formula 21]

My big question has been why not select Tommy Tremble at 77 then Palmer at 97. Everybody would have been happy at that.

And my best answer is that they did not feel that Palmer would last to 97 and they liked Palmer so much he was a must have. More of a must have than a TE.

And if they missed on Tremble, they felt that McKitty was a comparable talent for what they needed as a team.

And who says they liked Tremble over McKitty anyway? We'll never know.

[AK47]

I'll add one more thing I like about Palmer's athletic profile that hasn't been discussed. His arm length (33").

Everyone talks about vertical jump when it comes to 50/50 balls. It's natural to think like that, after all, they're called "jump balls" right? However, before the jump there's always a lot of jostling for position. Long arms allow the receiver to fend a DB from catch points. It's an underrated physical aspect. If a WR can outreach the defender on the ground it creates opportunities for a clean path to the ball. Either that or the DB needs to grab, generating PI calls.

On the other hand, this was something I worried about with Asante Samuel Jr. in the pre-draft process. He's got very short arms and I don't want to see him covering longer receivers too much on go routes. That's why I considered Asante's highest and best value as a NCB.

For WR prospects I'm about hand size and run routing. Michael Thomas and another current starting WR on an East Coast team were good examples I had in my historical mocks within mid-late round with ideal 10+ inch hands and considered above average route running. Again for me this is ideal and peaks my interest. After some time studying and being part of creating mocks and watching combines I came to the conclusion that 40-times are overrated for WRs as well. The 40-time is more important for CBs.

Herbert has 10-inch mitts Bosa has 10 1/4. Tre McKitty has 11 inch hands.


Off topic: For giggles Michael Jordan had 11.375 in hands where Kobe only was 9 inches. This forced Kobe to alter his game (framework defined by his mentor Michael Jordan) to allow him to attack the hoop in a different manner.

[Formula 21]

I've seen PFF studies that state that raw athleticism is not a defining characteristic for how well WRs perform. Of course it counts, but its not everything.