Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[Guest]

I had evaluated Palmer as a 5th rounder. But he’s one of those tough calls. How do you properly evaluate a WR’s tape when the QB can’t get him the ball? In other words, reaching for a WR who enjoyed effective QB play is bad, but reaching for a WR without good QB play offers the upside of untapped potential.

Watching TT and Staley‘s post-draft interviews, it’s easy to see that they’re excited about Palmer. They must know something because they’re grinning like a pair of Cheshire cats. I’ll trust their consensus on this one.

Now I’m not going to argue that WR was the highest PON, especially in the 3rd. But I will argue against the take that adding Palmer hurts our WR corps.

Here’s why:
1. Palmer adds variation to exploit situational matchups.
2. Gives leverage for re-signing MW.
3. Provides a quality WR in the case MW isn’t re-signed.
4. KA isn’t young forever. We need to groom a route running possession receiver.
5. Most of our receivers are specialists and Palmer seems to have a more well-rounded skill set.

Snap judgements on a draft rarely pan out—at least in my experience. Having given it time to breathe, I carry 2 reservations. Palmer and McKitty.

If Palmer thrives under effective QB play I’ll be satisfied with the pick.

If McKitty turns out to be an effective blocker I’ll be satisfied with the pick.

Both are TBD.

Regarding your takes 1-5, I think the following:

1. Palmer does not give us much in the way of variation. Our WR group was already pretty well diversified.
2. Palmer does not appear to be Williams or anything close to Williams, so no negotiating leverage with Williams is not generated by selecting Palmer.
3. If Williams is not re-signed, we should probably draft a quality high end WR and not rely on a 5th round prospect to get the job done.
4. Palmer did not show a good get off and ability to be open immediately. He seems like just about the opposite of Allen.
5. Allen and Williams are not specialists and Guyton and Johnson are not just one trick ponies, but their known one trick is invaluable to the team given the strengths and weaknesses of our other WRs.

I have been wrong before and will be again about draft picks, but the great weight of the evidence thus far suggests that Palmer was a reach. Typically, if two guys rate a guy as good and 50 guys rate him as not so good, I will trust the judgment of the 50. Numbers is not a guarantee of correctness, but I do not see any special traits in Palmer at all.

And when you have no proof of high level collegiate success because of the system, the answer is that you evaluate the traits and project. The traits are that he is not fast by NFL standards and lacks explosiveness. The video showed that he struggled against close/press type coverage and he was slow to set up his moves in many instances. He demonstrated no impressive ability to play the ball in the air. His hands were not as good as advertised, really pretty much average. So what elite traits are we drafting in that absence of good production in college? I do not see any.

Regarding McKitty, numerous sources have already rated that pick as one of the worst in the entire draft by any team. Blocking TEs are a dime a dozen and can be had in the late rounds or through UDFAs or free agency. Moreover, McKitty actually is not a devastating blocker. He has a very high drop rate as a receiver (more than 1 pass in 7 dropped). McKitty may block better than Cook, Parham and Anderson, but that is saying next to nothing about McKitty being a good blocker--more about those guys not being noted for their blocking ability.

There were 21 UDFA TEs signed by my count in addition to the 6 drafted after McKitty in the draft. McKitty was rated as round 6-7 player. There are free agent TEs as well. There were many options that could have been selected instead of making a gigantic reach for McKitty. A simple blocking TE is not worth a 3rd round pick.

[like54ninjas]

Why do fans have Joe Reed over KJ Hill? Hill was more productive in college at a better football school and more (barely) productive last year.

We have new eyes on the coaching staff this year, but I’d bet on the guy with the better history of production over the better athlete.

Bigger school or bigger football recruiting school? OHST is definitely on the bottom tier of academic universities.

Both are power 5 conferences. Joe stood out on a team with who at QB vs OHST.
KJ had better college career #’s but Reed had the higher single season results.

[Velo]

My big question has been why not select Tommy Tremble at 77 then Palmer at 97. Everybody would have been happy at that.

And my best answer is that they did not feel that Palmer would last to 97 and they liked Palmer so much he was a must have. More of a must have than a TE.

And if they missed on Tremble, they felt that McKitty was a comparable talent for what they needed as a team.

And who says they liked Tremble over McKitty anyway? We'll never know.

You answered your own question. Yes, probably TT had reason to believe another team targeting Palmer would take him between #77 and #97 and he didn't want to lose him. But before you put Tremble above Kitty, let's see how things play out. We may have gotten the better TE - happens all the time in the NFL.

[Bearded14YourPleasure]

Why do fans have Joe Reed over KJ Hill? Hill was more productive in college at a better football school and more (barely) productive last year.

We have new eyes on the coaching staff this year, but I’d bet on the guy with the better history of production over the better athlete.

Reed’s athleticism allows for more mismatches and different ways to be used, Hill is definitely the better route runner in the short and intermediate areas and has the better hands but he’s really limited outside of that.

College production gets thrown out at the pro level, so from a production standpoint they’re pretty equal. A new coaching staff (and an off season program for the players) that can actually develop players will lead to Reed ahead of Hill. If Reed doesn’t put in the work Hill has the high floor between the two.

[Guest]

Why do fans have Joe Reed over KJ Hill? Hill was more productive in college at a better football school and more (barely) productive last year.

We have new eyes on the coaching staff this year, but I’d bet on the guy with the better history of production over the better athlete.

Hill gives the team nothing in any area. He does nothing well.

Reed can give us something in the return game, special teams and can run the ball a little bit. Even if he adds nothing as a pure receiver, he is better than K.J. Hill, but he has the potential to add something in the receiving game based upon his physical traits.

Hill is virtually worthless, not really quite good enough to be a lasting NFL player--always a very back of the roster guy at best, but no so much on a team with a bunch of good receiving options.

Give me the more talented player in Reed--all day, every day. The part that cannot be coached is preferred over the part that can be coached.

[Bolt Dude]

My big question has been why not select Tommy Tremble at 77 then Palmer at 97. Everybody would have been happy at that.

And my best answer is that they did not feel that Palmer would last to 97 and they liked Palmer so much he was a must have. More of a must have than a TE.

And if they missed on Tremble, they felt that McKitty was a comparable talent for what they needed as a team.

And who says they liked Tremble over McKitty anyway? We'll never know.

McKitty seems to have more potential as a receiver--his hands are like catcher's mitts and he had a good showing over Senior Bowl week. I think you're probably right. They prioritized Palmer over Tremble and went for it.

[Guest]

B14 - give it up. You're never going to change his mind no matter how logically you present your position.

IMO Palmer was drafted to be the Charger's version of the Saint's Michael Thomas, and Lombardi's fingerprints are all over this selection. Let's hope he can be half as productive. I forget what round Thomas was drafted in (4th? 5th? even later??) and the knock on him was lack of speed, but the guy is ALWAYS open - just ask Drew Brees.

Thomas was a second round pick who fell because of his speed just as Drew Brees fell because of his height and not elite arm strength. Both turned out to be fantastic players despite their perceived limitations. Of course, for every great player with perceived limitations there are many with similar limitations that are not good NFL players. The approach of identifying a great player with limitation(s) similar to ones being discussed and suggesting that the limitation is easily overcome for any new player is that the limitations are often not easily overcome.

For instance, what would you say if I told you that the Colts just drafted the next Drew Brees in Sam Ehlinger because he has some similar physical characteristics and measurables? Wouldn't you think that that was unlikely? Of course you would.

Well, the comparison between Palmer and Thomas is every bit as ridiculous as the comparison between Brees and Ehlinger (who are both shorter QBs with less than ideal arm strength that are accurate passers that run in the low 4.80s and have desirable intangible qualities). Palmer is not Williams, Allen or Thomas. The comparisons are absurd. Palmer is just as likely to be the next Korey Robertson as he is any sort of good NFL receiver. Heck, I would think the team dodged the bullet of a complete bust if he turned to be almost as good as Legedu Naanee. (Naanee was more physically gifted than Palmer.)

I think we can stop with all of the Palmer is just like great receiver "X" nonsense. Palmer was likely a third round reach that will stick in the NFL, but have limited success overall and not be a good starting caliber WR. If he replaces Williams in 2022, then the team will be worse at WR in 2022. That is the most likely outcome.

[Guest]

KA missed 25% of snaps last year. MW missed 33% of snaps last year. Just backing up those two means 50%+ snaps.

And those snaps should be going to Guyton and Johnson.

[NoMoreChillies]

when Chargers were evalutaing CB's for their 2nd round pick, who do you think was catching balls and winning vs those big name CB's? Palmer. Staley knows a football player when he sees one.

[equivocation]

And those snaps should be going to Guyton and Johnson.

If "Jalen Guyton should have the most snaps of our WR group" is the hill you want to die on, I certainly don't have the enthusiasm to charge it.

All you've done in this thread is convince me WR actually was a need.

[like54ninjas]

Reed’s athleticism allows for more mismatches and different ways to be used, Hill is definitely the better route runner in the short and intermediate areas and has the better hands but he’s really limited outside of that.

College production gets thrown out at the pro level, so from a production standpoint they’re pretty equal. A new coaching staff (and an off season program for the players) that can actually develop players will lead to Reed ahead of Hill. If Reed doesn’t put in the work Hill has the high floor between the two.

I agree with the exception that I think Joe’s hands are better and bigger and just so much more explosive
His route tree was limited coming out of UV.
He needed work with both his route stems and tree.

[equivocation]

Both Reed and Hill are on the bubble. Reed has a greater chance of getting off it.