Stopping Herbert in 2021

[sonorajim]

Good point. Obviously our preparation will have everything to do with who’s playing QB at that point. If it’s Cam we run blitz and make him force bad throws. If it’s Mac we run dial up the pre-snap motion. I hope Staley recognizes how important that game is. Last year was beyond demoralizing.

BB has had our number. It wasn't just last year, although I agree. I believe Staley wants to win them all but defeating an Ancient Enemy will go a long way toward putting Chargers fans in the seats. NE has not only beaten us, they were pretty damn humiliating about it, multiple times. Destroy them!!
please.

[dmac_bolt]

BB has had our number. It wasn't just last year, although I agree. I believe Staley wants to win them all but defeating an Ancient Enemy will go a long way toward putting Chargers fans in the seats. NE has not only beaten us, they were pretty damn humiliating about it, multiple times. Destroy them!!
please.

Even with the “peak” 2000’s Bolt teams, they just knocked the snot out of us. I remember being in Boston for a conference and cut out to go watch the ChargerNE game at a sports bar down the street. Don’t remember the final, all i remember is we were 20+ points out of it before half. Like that last playoff game with Gus’s criminally negligent design to play DBs 8 yards off the LOS all first half and watch NE throw up 35 fucking points as Tom dissected the defense with his trademark bread and butter underneath crossing routes over and over and over and …. Over and over.

[Formula 21]

With this offensive line, Herbert should have the time to eat a happy meal before passing the ball. That means more downfield passing and fewer check downs to Ekelar. And Julio would fit right in.

[Xenos]

With this offensive line, Herbert should have the time to eat a happy meal before passing the ball. That means more downfield passing and fewer check downs to Ekelar. And Julio would fit right in.

Agree on everything but Julio. No to a 32 year old injury prone receiver.

[Xenos]

Popper addresses some concerns about Herbert's potential regression (at least per PFF) in one of his mailbags:

https://theathletic.com/2600681/2021/05/20/chargers-mailbag-why-are-some-underrating-justin-herbert-and-what-about-the-rb-depth-chart/

The more I see PFF holding their stance on Justin Herbert, the more fearful I get that he will regress. What do you think Pop? — @manthony9494

I do not necessarily see this as Pro Football Focus “holding their stance” on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. There are really two distinct and unrelated instances, only one of which is worth exploring with any sort of depth.

The first instance was an analyst saying on a podcast in April 2020, before the draft, that Herbert “can’t play.” That was categorically wrong. Herbert obviously can play. We will end that conversation right there.

The second instance grapples with some more pertinent and founded questions about what Herbert will be in his second season and beyond.

Former NFL quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, another of PFF’s analysts, published his rankings of all 32 starters on Tuesday, and he ranked Herbert 15th. This, to me, seems a little low. I think Herbert is certainly better than Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins, whom Gradkowski ranked 10th and 14th, respectively. But I do not see this as PFF doubling down on a bad pre-draft take as part of some broader anti-Herbert conspiracy. And the list itself is not as important to me as the points Gradkowski makes in his explanation. These are the more crucial questions about Herbert’s development.

Gradkowski writes that Herbert was the “king of high-variance and high-leverage situations” in 2020. And he is not wrong about that — particularly under-pressure situations and third downs.

Herbert was ridiculously effective when under pressure last season. His 99.4 passer rating when under pressure was the best mark in the league by a considerable margin, according to PFF. Just to put that figure in perspective: Aaron Rodgers has finished with an under-pressure rating better than that in just one of his 13 seasons as a starter, in 2009. Russell Wilson has never had an under-pressure rating higher than that. Neither has Patrick Mahomes. Three of the best off-platform, escapability quarterbacks in NFL history, and none has put together a better under-pressure season than Herbert did as a rookie. Herbert actually had a better passer rating when under pressure than when kept clean (97.7). He was under pressure on 239 dropbacks in 2020, the second-most in the league behind Wilson.

So what does this mean? When projecting how a player is going to develop in any sport, you want to look at aspects of his game that are sustainable. Maintaining a passer rating of 99.4 when under pressure is not really sustainable.

But context is important. It is not like Herbert lucked into this rating. He was placing balls perfectly to Jalen Guyton 70 yards downfield with a 300-pound defensive lineman in his face. That takes an immense amount of skill and talent. But this play is harder to replicate consistently than plays when the pocket is clean. And thus replicating the under-pressure production over a 17-game season is also harder. It is fair to assume that Herbert will not finish with a 99.4 rating when under pressure in 2021, and that is no knock on him. He was just that good — historically good — against pressure in 2020. You have to go back to Ben Roethlisberger in 2014 to find a quarterback who performed that well against pressure.

In order for Herbert to maintain his current path, he must offset the likely regression against pressure by improving in clean-pocket situations. I have faith he can do that based on what I saw last year in terms of accuracy and processing.

Just a few recent examples: Lamar Jackson finished with a 97.7 rating against pressure in his first full year as a starter in 2019, according to PFF. In 2020, that dropped to 79.2. Deshaun Watson led the league in under-pressure passer rating in his first full season as a starter in 2018 at 88.2. That dropped to 76.6 in 2019. They were both still good quarterbacks in their second full seasons.

Herbert was also very, very good on third down last season. This is another one of the high-variance, high-leverage scenarios. According to rbsdm.com, Herbert finished with more expected points added (EPA) per play on third downs than he did overall. Like with passer rating under pressure, third down success does not always carry over from year to year for quarterbacks. In other words, it not a particularly sustainable stat.

Cousins is a good example of this. In 2018, his first season with the Vikings, Cousins finished with an EPA/play of -0.159 on third downs — negative, indicating he was actually hurting his team, on average, on these downs. The very next season, in 2019, Cousins finished third in the league in EPA/play on third downs at .425 — a dramatic turnaround of nearly half an expected point added per play. In 2020, it dropped to .146.

Cousins’ overall EPA/play figures didn’t fluctuate as significantly. In 2018, he averaged .051 EPA/play. In 2019, he averaged .216 EPA/play. In 2020, he averaged .201 EPA/play. Less variance.

Herbert ranked 10th in third-down EPA last season but 15th in overall EPA. If he does regress on third down, he will need to offset that with improvements on first and second down — similar to under-pressure situations vs. clean-pocket situations.

Herbert achieved remarkable things as a rookie largely because of his success in these specific high-leverage situations — under pressure and third down. The doubters will lean into the math and say that regression in one or both areas is likely. And I do not think that analysis is completely off-base.

But after watching every snap of Herbert’s rookie season and gaining a thorough understanding of his makeup as a person and player, I strongly believe he will offset any regression with improvements in other needed facets of his game.

No need to overthink it. Everyone seemed to do that in the lead-up to the 2020 draft.

[Xenos]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this - and I was almost going to start a thread on it - but what about...crowd noise? Herbert had the luxury of playing his rookie year with no one in the stands, so there was absolutely no distractions due to crowds revving up the volume. I wonder what it will be like for him in, say, Kansas City, when the crowd is going crazy and Herbie can't hear - or communicate - a thing. Is he used to that kind of noise? Does anyone else think this could be a potential problem?

So Mike Sando of The Athletic had an article about this potentially being an issue. It was also a reminder that statistically guys like Herbert may regress, but may actually be better players this year than last.

https://theathletic.com/2609909/2021/05/25/fans-are-back-which-is-great-for-the-nfl-but-not-for-qbs-like-aaron-rodgers-josh-allen-and-justin-herbert/?article_source=search&search_query=mike%20sando

The U.S. sports fan returned with a vengeance this past weekend.

Masses engulfed golfers Phil Mickelson and Brooks Koepka during the final round of the PGA Championship until Koepka could barely find his way to the 18th green. Mickelson couldn’t recall anything quite like it.

Elsewhere, more than 15,000 filled Madison Square Garden with so much energy, directing so much vitriol toward the Atlanta Hawks, that when the visitors pulled off a 107-105 victory over the New York Knicks in Game 1 of their NBA playoff series, Trae Young punctuated his winning floater by shushing those in attendance, Spike Lee among them, with an index finger across his lips. It recalled the old Reggie Miller days — moments made possible when fans infuse sporting events with so much energy, the emotion of winning and losing changes exponentially.

This memorable sports weekend foreshadowed what awaits the NFL in the fall as the league welcomes back spectators following a 2020 season when COVID-19 kept most of them away. Last season, networks used tight camera angles and simulated crowd noise to approximate familiar broadcast experiences. But inside mostly empty stadiums, those who were present described venues so eerily quiet, coaches could yell instructions to players from the sideline. Situations quarterbacks find most challenging, such as third-and-long on the road, became less threatening, likely contributing to statistical spikes that might not be sustainable as fans return in 2021.

“I really believe people are misjudging the impact of no noise,” an offensive coach said during the season. “Nobody thinks about it because they don’t live it. I have laid in bed at night and could not sleep because of noise.”

The effects of noise on communication during critical situations could be overblown in the mind of a coach, but some numbers support such thinking. To isolate for times when fans might have the most impact, I singled out third-down plays on the road with 7-10 yards needed for a first down. Over the five seasons from 2015-19, teams converted 33.7 percent at home and 30.6 percent on the road. There have been seasons when the road rate beat the home rate, but 2020 stood out by additional measures.

3rd Down & 7-10 Stats on Road, 2011-20

EPA/Play Yards/Att Rating

2020	+0.33 (1st)	7.83 (1st)	88.5 (1st)
2019	+0.23 (3rd)	6.88 (7th)	78.3 (4th)
2018	+0.20 (4th)	6.88 (7th)	75.3 (5th)
2017	-0.05 (10th)	6.62 (9th)	71.2 (10th)
2016	+0.01 (9th)	6.47 (10th)	72.2 (9th)
2015	+0.04 (7th)	6.91 (6th)	72.5 (8th)
2014	+0.26 (2nd)	7.80 (2nd)	81.1 (3rd)
2013	-0.03 (8th)	6.98 (5th)	73.9 (7th)
2012	+0.14 (5th)	7.07 (4th)	75.2 (6th)
2011	+0.14 (5th)	7.49 (3rd)	82.0 (2nd)

As shown in the table above, the 2020 regular season ranks first over the past decade in expected points added (EPA) per play, yards per pass attempt and passer rating on these third-down plays with 7-10 yards to go on the road, according to TruMedia. Last season also ranks first in these categories since at least 2000, the earliest season for which data is available. Situations when teams needed more than 10 yards were excluded partly because those situations became much less frequent. Relaxed enforcement of offensive holding contributed to teams needing more than 10 yards for a first down 731 fewer times in 2020, including 237 fewer times on third down.

The corresponding numbers for home teams were not as strong across the board last season compared to earlier seasons, which could support the idea that quiet stadiums benefited road teams disproportionately. While the 2020 home figure for EPA per play in these situations ranked first over the past decade by a narrow margin, the figures for yards per attempt and passer rating each ranked ninth out of the past 10 seasons. Teams converted first downs in those situations 33.9 percent of the time on the road last season, which ranked second over the past decade among road percentages. That compared to 32.6 percent at home, which ranked eighth among the past 10 home percentages.

And so we turn our attention to the five most prolific 2020 road performers by EPA per play on third down with 7-10 yards needed for a first down. Below are the teams with the farthest to fall if empty stadiums (possibly in combination with relaxed standards for offensive holding) really did give offenses a boost last season.


1. Buffalo Bills (1.25 EPA/play)
Josh Allen completed 15 of 18 passes for 199 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, zero sacks and a 149.8 passer rating in these situations on the road last season. Fans might recall a third-and-9 from the plus-46 yard line at Miami with 3:17 remaining in a game the Bills led, 24-20. The Dolphins blitzed, Buffalo’s protection held up well and Allen threw deep for receiver John Brown near the goal line for a touchdown.

Perhaps Allen completes that pass even if the Dolphins had 60,000 fans in attendance that day, as opposed to the 11,075 listed by the team. Perhaps a couple similar plays fail to pay off.

For the season, Allen averaged 1.38 EPA per attempt in these situations, second only to … Gardner Minshew? Yes, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ former starting quarterback actually led the league in that category and passer rating in those situations. In general, though, the better quarterbacks were near the top of the rankings with the worst quarterbacks near the bottom. Allen finished the season with 20 touchdown passes and four interceptions on the road.


2. Los Angeles Chargers (1.04 EPA/play)
Justin Herbert’s impressive rookie season included eight road games featuring 39,354 fans in attendance. Not 39,354 fans per game, but rather 39,354 fans total, for an average of 4,919 per game. He led the league with five road touchdown passes on third down with 7-10 yards to go, completing 14 of 24 passes for 264 yards and just one sack. That included two third-and-long touchdown passes at New Orleans, one at Tampa Bay, one at Denver and one at Miami. Those teams have fielded relatively strong defenses. They apparently could have used help from the home crowd.

The Bucs, protecting a 28-24 lead over the Chargers late in the third quarter of a Week 4 game, rushed seven on a third-and-7 play from the Chargers’ 28-yard line. The crowd noise audible on the CBS broadcast sounded appropriate for the situation, but with only 6,383 fans in attendance that day, the on-field reality was different. Herbert beat the blitz with a pass over the top to Jalen Guyton for a 72-yard touchdown.


3. Indianapolis Colts (0.92 EPA/play)
Philip Rivers ranked fourth in EPA per attempt and sixth in yards per attempt in these situations, trailing only Aaron Rodgers in completions gaining more than 15 yards (Rivers had seven in these situations, while Rodgers had eight). Rivers tossed two scoring passes, threw an interception and took two sacks.

The Colts’ new quarterback, Carson Wentz, took seven sacks on just 20 pass plays in these situations. Only Dallas’ Andy Dalton (eight sacks in 22 pass plays) was comparable during these situations. Wentz completed 4 of 12 passes for 76 yards, ranking 30th out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per attempt.

Wentz seems likely to improve upon his 2020 numbers outside Philadelphia. The Colts appear likely to regress from their 2020 standard.


4. Cleveland Browns (0.90 EPA/play)
Though Baker Mayfield finished last season with 17 touchdown passes on the road, eight more than he had at home, his road passing stats in these difficult third-down situations weren’t exceptional. As a team, the Browns did disproportionate damage on these plays during a 20-6 victory against the New York Giants. They converted twice with pass plays gaining 20 and 19 yards, and again with a 21-yard rush by D’Ernest Johnson as Cleveland ran its four-minute offense with 3:18 remaining. That game supplied 7.9 of the Browns’ net 19.7 EPA in those situations.


5. Green Bay Packers (0.87 EPA/play)
Rodgers drawing the Saints offside twice in a Week 3 Sunday night game from the Superdome focused attention on the sometimes comical nature of the silent shift in road teams’ favor. He did it once on a third-and-7 play early in the game, and again in the fourth quarter on a third-and-3.

“This is exactly what we’re talking about,” the NBC analyst Cris Collinsworth said on the broadcast after the second play. “This does not happen if this is a normal crowd in here.”

The Saints listed attendance for that prime time game at 748, down from 73,146 when the Packers last visited New Orleans, in 2014. Rodgers was league MVP in both of those seasons, but his Superdome experiences were vastly different. The 2014 game saw the Packers amass 491 yards, but they converted just once in seven chances on third down. Rodgers, playing through a sore hamstring, had one touchdown pass with two interceptions. Last season in New Orleans, the Packers converted five times in 11 chances on third down. Rodgers tossed three scoring passes without an interception.

Many things changed from 2014 to 2020, of course, but removing noise from the experience for visitors to the Superdome obviously made a difference.

The return of fans this season isn’t going to suddenly swing game outcomes, but it could tip the balance on some of these plays teams failed to convert as regularly in the past, when crowds might be at their loudest.

[PhilaBoltster]

Along with crowd noise, it remains to be seen what the home crowds are going to be like in the new stadium. Will they be similar to Carson where the Chargers were occasionally booed entering the field and opponent players were raising crowd noise? Hopefully not, but you don’t know how that for an entire season could impact a young QB.

[gzubeck]

I'll take a 5% regression in Herbert if the rest of the team is 100% better! LOL! If there's a regression it will be due to sloppiness because the rest of the team is doing that much better. As to the fan base in our stadium I think it will be much closer to a 50/50 mix as fans start coming back this season.

:shifty:

[chargeroo]

I haven't commented about the Julio Jones rumors before but after much consideration I think the Bolts should go get Jones. He's still a #1 WR and I think about having him and Williams and KA on the field - KA would be a great slot WR -he'd be better than Eddleman was for the Pats.

We have the money, so don't save it until next year, get Herbert all the tools you can.

Also imagine if the Chiefs sign him!

I think they should sign Julio and make a run at it this year.

[like54ninjas]

I haven't commented about the Julio Jones rumors before but after much consideration I think the Bolts should go get Jones. He's still a #1 WR and I think about having him and Williams and KA on the field - KA would be a great slot WR -he'd be better than Eddleman was for the Pats.

We have the money, so don't save it until next year, get Herbert all the tools you can.

Also imagine if the Chiefs sign him!

I think they should sign Julio and make a run at it this year.

I like the sentiment.
I can see it happening next week.