Should We Stop Going For It On 4th Down?

[Boltjolt]

Cook dropped an easy TD in 4th down. That guy drops a lot of passes .

I hope we can sign maybe Ertz next season to a 2 year deal. I don't think Parham is ready to be the guy.

And I do hope Parham makes a 100% recovery from that head injury.

[Steve]

4th down attitude got a couplke wins early that previous seasons would have been losses.
I am ok with it

Players need to execute better

I loved herberts post game interview. "... we need to convert more 3rd downs."

[northerner]

i think the yardage needs to be considered more in these situations. 4th and goal from the 5 yard line is TOO far. take the FG. in the red zone, it needs to be 4th and 1 (maybe 2) to go for it.

if we have the ball anywhere from our opponent's 45 yard to our opponent's 25 yard line, then going for it makes sense in a lot of different cases (4 and 5, etc.). Once we are inside their 25 yard line, the FG starts looking like the way to go.

4th and 1 will always be a great case to for it, as the threat of running to pick up the first down is always there. Once you get to 4th and 3 (or more), your chances of running for the first down are going way down.

for tonight, i definitely would have kicked on our first drive and the drive right before halftime (the "momentum kill" was just too big, even though it was only 4 and 2 before halftime). i am fine with the other calls to go for it. this just sucks to lose this game tonight.

[Bolt4Knob]

i think the yardage needs to be considered more in these situations. 4th and goal from the 5 yard line is TOO far. take the FG. in the red zone, it needs to be 4th and 1 (maybe 2) to go for it.

if we have the ball anywhere from our opponent's 45 yard to our opponent's 25 yard line, then going for it makes sense in a lot of different cases (4 and 5, etc.). Once we are inside their 25 yard line, the FG starts looking like the way to go.

4th and 1 will always be a great case to for it, as the threat of running to pick up the first down is always there. Once you get to 4th and 3 (or more), your chances of running for the first down are going way down.

for tonight, i definitely would have kicked on our first drive and the drive right before halftime (the "momentum kill" was just too big, even though it was only 4 and 2 before halftime). i am fine with the other calls to go for it. this just sucks to lose this game tonight.

I think this is fair. I think down and distance and score should factor in. Personally, I think Staley made up his mind driving to work or in his office what his vision for the game was going to be

But the reality was - and I get KC had the fire power when Derwin was out in the second half and OT - but he didn't NEED to go for it on 4th down at times - the Chargers were tied or winning the game.
The drops didn't help either - but that shouldnt affect the next decision. He has a vision and big picture - which is great - but also need to coach the actual game being played

[richpjr]

He is not going to stop - and I don't disagree with him:

Popper: Brandon Staley’s fourth-down decisions were sound, even if the results weren’t there for the Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley looks on during the first half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday, Dec. 16, 2021, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
By Daniel Popper 4h ago 32
On Sept. 10, before he had coached a down of regular-season football for the Chargers, Brandon Staley was asked about how aggressive he planned to be on fourth downs. The Chargers were two days away from opening their 2021 season on the road against the Washington Football Team.

“I’m a big fan of trusting our quarterback, of putting the ball in his hands and putting pressure on the defense. I believe in that,” the rookie head coach said. “From a strategic standpoint, there are a lot of reasons why. Fear is definitely not going to be a motivator for us, one that we make decisions by. We’re going to be able to live with our results because we trust our process and we trust our players. … Sometimes you’re going to have to live with the criticism. That’s part of the job.”

We are now 15 weeks into the NFL season, and every word Staley said in that response has held true.

If you are clamoring about his decision-making — if you are surprised or put off or confused — then you have not been paying attention.

Since Staley accepted the Chargers’ head coaching position in January, this has been his vision. This has been his philosophy. This has been the identity he is determined to forge.

He is committed to the win probability advantages gained by going for it on fourth downs in specific situations. The process matters. The math matters. The results do not. This is who he is. It is not going to change. So get used to it.

Brandon Staley is coaching to win. He has one of the most gifted and talented quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert. And, damn it, that is the player he is going to let decide the game.

The Chargers lost to the Chiefs, 34-28, on Thursday night at SoFi Stadium. Tight end Travis Kelce turned a 4-yard catch into a 34-yard touchdown, slicing through the Chargers defense with yards after the catch for the walk-off score in overtime. With a win, the Chargers would have taken over first place in the AFC West. They let a massive opportunity slip away.

The Chargers went 2-for-5 on fourth down in the game. Two of those failed fourth-down attempts happened inside the Kansas City 6-yard line in the first half. The third came on a fourth-and-2 inside the Kansas City 30-yard line in the third quarter.

The hindsight vultures will say the Chargers left nine points on the field, assuming kicker Dustin Hopkins connected on the three field goals he could have attempted on those three fourth downs. But that logic is flawed because it is based on results. The win probability math shows that all three of these decisions, in and of themselves, increased the Chargers’ chances at victory.

The decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the Chiefs’ 5-yard line on the opening offensive possession increased the the Chargers’ odds of winning by 3.1 percent, according to Ben Baldwin’s fourth-down model. Herbert delivered a perfect ball to Donald Parham in the back of the end zone. In a scary scene, Parham slammed his head into the turf on his fall. He dropped the ball. And he was stretchered off the field and transported to a local hospital for further evaluation.

If Parham makes this catch, no one questions this call. It would have been regarded as a great decision, like the Chargers’ fourth-and-goal attempt from the 4-yard line two weeks ago at the Bengals that resulted in a Keenan Allen touchdown. But the rationale for whether a decision is good or bad cannot rely on the result of the play. It must rely on the inherent value of the decision itself.

The decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the Chiefs’ 1-yard line on the final play of the half increased the Chargers’ chances at winning by 2 percent, according to Baldwin’s model. Daniel Sorensen batted Herbert’s attempt to Allen at the line of scrimmage. But, again, the result of the play does not make it a bad decision.

The decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 from the Chiefs’ 27-yard line early in the third quarter increased the Chargers’ chances at winning by 4.4 percent, according to Baldwin’s model. Herbert threw to tight end Jared Cook on a short route to the left. Linebacker Nick Bolton jumped the throw and broke it up.

All these decisions improved the Chargers’ chances at winning. They also converted on two fourth downs. One, a Herbert sneak, led to a touchdown in the second quarter. Another, a fourth-and-1 handoff to Joshua Kelley, set the Chargers up with a first-and-goal from the Chiefs 4-yard line.

“We love to be put in those situations,” Herbert said.

“Leave the game in our hands,” Allen said. “I don’t want to kick the ball and watch it and hope.”

What lost them the game was a lack of execution.

Mike Williams dropped what should have been a touchdown pass two plays before the failed fourth-and-goal attempt on the opening drive.

Cook dropped what should have been a touchdown pass — which, to be fair, was slightly high from Herbert — two plays before the failed fourth-and-goal at the end of the half.

Kelley fumbled at the goal line on an ill-advised attempt to jump over the pile with the ball extended.

The defense failed to contain Kelce without Derwin James on the field. James only played 26 defensive snaps in the game because his hamstring injury flared up. He was off the field for the Chiefs’ final six possessions. Kelce only had one catch for 14 yards when James was in the game, according to play-by-play data from TruMedia. Kelce had nine catches for 177 yards and two touchdowns with James off the field.

The Chargers gave up too many loose plays in the final stages of this game. They let Patrick Mahomes escape the pocket and create with his legs and arms. The final six plays of the Chiefs’ game-tying drive in the fourth quarter came in off-script situations, including Mahomes’ 32-yard scramble. Mahomes also hit Tyreek Hill for 20 yards on a third-and-10 after evading pressure on one of those plays.

Hill finished with 148 yards receiving. Mahomes threw for 410 yards.

“It’s the recipe that he uses to play well,” Staley said of Mahomes after the game. “And when you allow loose plays by the quarterback, then you see numbers like he had today.”

Staley’s fourth-down decision-making is one of the primary reasons the Chargers are in this position, fighting for a playoff spot down the stretch. They do not beat the Chiefs in Week 3 if Staley does not go for it on two fourth-and-9 attempts in the fourth quarter. They might not have beaten the Raiders in Week 4 if Staley does not go for it on a fourth-and-2 in the fourth quarter that set up a touchdown to increase their lead to two scores. They do not beat the Browns in Week 5 if Staley does not go for it and successfully convert three fourth downs in the second half that led to two touchdowns.

The Chargers were converting fourth downs at a 87.5 percent clip through the first five weeks of the season. That was not a sustainable rate, and mathematical regression has hit since then. The Chargers are 8-of-18 on fourth downs — 44.4 percent — since Week 6.

The results have changed. The decision-making process has not — and will not — change.

“That’s going to be the mindset no matter who we play,” Staley said Thursday night.

“I know that the quickest way to win a game like that is to score touchdowns, not field goals, especially considering who’s on the other side,” he added. “And to me, when you feel like you’re in an advantage situation, when you don’t feel like it’s a gamble, when you feel like this is an advantage for you, then that’s going to be our mindset. And I don’t think that any decision that we made tonight, I made tonight, was a gamble. We felt like it was an advantage situation for us, and that’s why we did it. If we didn’t feel like that was the case, then we would have kicked a field goal or we would have punted. That’s the way we’re going to do things around here, and I know that our team embraces that mindset, and we’re going to continue to do it every game moving forward.”

Staley will go for it on fourth down again, and he will fail again.

The one thing he will never do is coach not to lose.

He told you that before the season started. It’s not his fault if you weren’t listening.

[Bolt4Knob]

He is not going to stop - and I don't disagree with him:

Frustrating loss but the Denver game was worse
The Patriots game was worse
the Ravens game MUCH worse

Just beat Houston and go from there. Sit back, relax, rest up and get back to work next week.

[richpjr]

Frustrating loss but the Denver game was worse
The Patriots game was worse
the Ravens game MUCH worse

Just beat Houston and go from there. Sit back, relax, rest up and get back to work next week.

Losing is one thing. Losing at the end in a very winnable game is different. We really were not in the Denver, Patriot or Raven games at all. This game was very winnable and with the stakes so high to collapse at the end pretty much ended any thought I had that we are anything but a fringe playoff team who will make a quick out. Just way too many holes on the D and on the O line/RB depth. Herbert keeps us in most games but he can't do it by himself.

[Bolt4Knob]

Losing is one thing. Losing at the end in a very winnable game is different. We really were not in the Denver, Patriot or Raven games at all. This game was very winnable and with the stakes so high to collapse at the end pretty much ended any thought I had that we are anything but a fringe playoff team who will make a quick out. Just way too many holes on the D and on the O line/RB depth. Herbert keeps us in most games but he can't do it by himself.

I know this much -- Mike Williams just isn't worth the money he will command. He makes a really good catch up the sideline. But for at least the third if not 4th time this year, dropped a ball inside the five yard line. You just can't have that. And can find a serviceable WR in free agency for a lot less money who catches the damn ball. And Cook -he can go.

As for going on 4th downs - if thats your mantra - don't stop next week.

[captaind]

Nobody wants to hear it, but last night was 4th and 11 on steroids.

Know when the odds are in your favor, and when they aren't. Staley was reckless last night. And I'm guessing if he's a gambler, he doesn't know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, when to walk away, or when to run.

[Steve]

I know this much -- Mike Williams just isn't worth the money he will command. He makes a really good catch up the sideline. But for at least the third if not 4th time this year, dropped a ball inside the five yard line. You just can't have that. And can find a serviceable WR in free agency for a lot less money who catches the damn ball. And Cook -he can go.

As for going on 4th downs - if thats your mantra - don't stop next week.

As far as Williams goes, I agree. IMHO, his performance is just not quite up to what I want a big money WR to do. He is not a bad player, but like Tyrell a few years ago, he has some holes in his game and that is the difference between a big money guy, and the next couple of tiers down.

CBS Sports has an article by a (former) agent, who thinks Williams should be getting in the neighborhood of $17 mill per season.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-2021-contract-year-stock-watch-has-mike-williams-allen-robinson-on-opposite-ends-of-spectrum/

As far as the 4th downs go, 2 separate series, QB hits the receiver in the hands of receivers in position to score in on the 1st one, the second one the QB put the ball just too far to reach (although palmer made a similar almost out of reach catch later in the game) ... the execution was just not quite there.

[Bolt4Knob]

As far as Williams goes, I agree. IMHO, his performance is just not quite up to what I want a big money WR to do. He is not a bad player, but like Tyrell a few years ago, he has some holes in his game and that is the difference between a big money guy, and the next couple of tiers down.

CBS Sports has an article by a (former) agent, who thinks Williams should be getting in the neighborhood of $17 mill per season.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-2021-contract-year-stock-watch-has-mike-williams-allen-robinson-on-opposite-ends-of-spectrum/

As far as the 4th downs go, 2 separate series, QB hits the receiver in the hands of receivers in position to score in on the 1st one, the second one the QB put the ball just too far to reach (although palmer made a similar almost out of reach catch later in the game) ... the execution was just not quite there.

On the fourth down, I really only had issue with the one up 14-10 The first one, plenty of time left in the game and yes, at that point, you have to think KC is going to put up points. The third one, 45 yard FG only makes it a 4 point game. So thats good - but it still was a 45 yard FG. Now the 22 yard chip shot - knowing KC is getting the ball at the half - I take the points there.

Williams isn't worth 17m per year. Look at Corey Davis with the Jets - not worth it. You cna find good solid NFL receivers plus the defense needs so much help, let him "test the market."

[richpjr]

Nobody wants to hear it, but last night was 4th and 11 on steroids.

Know when the odds are in your favor, and when they aren't. Staley was reckless last night. And I'm guessing if he's a gambler, he doesn't know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, when to walk away, or when to run.

I don't agree with the reckless part at all. They had plays called that should have worked. It's not like Herbert was sacked or we ran up the gut and were stuffed - we flat out dropped passes that should have been caught for TDs. As Popper points out, the analytics actually show the odds of winning increased by going for it.