Should We Stop Going For It On 4th Down?

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  • Steve
    Administrator
    • Jun 2013
    • 6839
    • South Carolina
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    Originally posted by Bolt4Knob View Post

    On the fourth down, I really only had issue with the one up 14-10 The first one, plenty of time left in the game and yes, at that point, you have to think KC is going to put up points. The third one, 45 yard FG only makes it a 4 point game. So thats good - but it still was a 45 yard FG. Now the 22 yard chip shot - knowing KC is getting the ball at the half - I take the points there.

    Williams isn't worth 17m per year. Look at Corey Davis with the Jets - not worth it. You cna find good solid NFL receivers plus the defense needs so much help, let him "test the market."
    I am still somewhat of a John Madden type. I think the big one is getting the 1st points on the board. it was the opening drive, I think making that a statement piece. You drive down running the ball down the field, then throw 4 straight passes. I would have tried to run it in 3 straight times, then kick if you don't get it, just to get points on the board quickly. Let KC know they have to stop our run, or they are going to get it all night long.

    By the time it is 14-10, I get going for it then. KC is getting the ball back in the 2nd half, we have left a bunch of points on the field, we haven't controlled ball like we wanted. I think they felt like they had to have the margin, so that one I get.

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    • The question you have to ask. If going for it so often on 4th down especially when easy points are available or its not desperation time is good, then why aren't ALL the teams in the NFL doing it? I don't see Belichick doing it...or some of the other great coaches. Take the points.

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      • Riverwalk
        Registered Charger Fan
        • Nov 2021
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        Going for it on all those fourth downs showed Staley had no confidence in his defense. Chargers would have won if he kicked field goals instead.

        I don’t think I’ve ever been so pissed off at bad coaching decisions. Players got robbed of a win by Staley.

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        • Steve
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          • Jun 2013
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          The argument is that you are likely enough to score a TD to come out ahead in the end, on average.

          And you can't argue that the math doesn't work, because Herbert hit receivers in scoring position, IN THE HANDS with the ball. The coaches, OL, RB, other receivers and QB all did their jobs well enough to win on the play ... but the receivers didn't.

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          • Riverwalk
            Registered Charger Fan
            • Nov 2021
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            Originally posted by richpjr View Post

            ….the analytics actually show the odds of winning increased by going for it.
            No, that’s only half the equation. If you convert the odds increase. If you fail, the odds can’t increase and in fact they decrease because you would have 3 more points on the board.

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            • Xenos
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              • Feb 2019
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              Originally posted by richpjr View Post
              He is not going to stop - and I don't disagree with him:
              Thank you! We just didn’t execute. That’s the problem. Don’t stop because the results aren’t in your favor. That’s hindsight. The only thing I do wonder is if Staley should have gone for 2 on the third down to make it 22-13, a two score game given analytically it’s almost better to go for two these days.

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              • Xenos
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                • Feb 2019
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                Here’s something from another forum I go to:
                https://forums.footballsfuture.com/t...omment=4199456
                In every situation the Chargers for went kicking it was only to have it remain a 1 score game. You can't assume that if you change the process that the outcome is the same. They only "left 9" points on the field in 3 discrete events that do not necessarily correlate to the same outcome had they chosen to get those points in 3 point intervals. It changes the Chiefs decision making and process. Reid kicked FG's in the redzone and the end result ended up being the same, if the Chargers kick FG's the process for the Chiefs is different.

                You have to analyze it as a series of discrete events, you judge process, not outcome.

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                • richpjr
                  Registered Charger Fan
                  • Jun 2013
                  • 21036
                  • Nashville
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                  Originally posted by Riverwalk View Post

                  No, that’s only half the equation. If you convert the odds increase. If you fail, the odds can’t increase and in fact they decrease because you would have 3 more points on the board.
                  The increased odds do take into account that fact that the attempt could fail.

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                  • Xenos
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                    • Feb 2019
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                    Originally posted by Steve View Post
                    The argument is that you are likely enough to score a TD to come out ahead in the end, on average.

                    And you can't argue that the math doesn't work, because Herbert hit receivers in scoring position, IN THE HANDS with the ball. The coaches, OL, RB, other receivers and QB all did their jobs well enough to win on the play ... but the receivers didn't.
                    Yup. If Tyrod was playing instead, we wouldn’t be going for it so much IMO. But you have the QB and the personnel, so why not right?

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                    • Xenos
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                      • Feb 2019
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                      Originally posted by Hupperdoo View Post
                      The question you have to ask. If going for it so often on 4th down especially when easy points are available or its not desperation time is good, then why aren't ALL the teams in the NFL doing it? I don't see Belichick doing it...or some of the other great coaches. Take the points.
                      Most NFL coaches are still dinosaurs when it comes to the game. They play mostly to not lose the game. Guys like Reich, Harbaugh, and Doug Pederson were the rare exceptions.

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                      • Bolt4Knob
                        Registered Charger Fan
                        • Dec 2019
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                        [QUOTE=Xenos;n1293205]

                        Thank you! We just didn’t execute. That’s the problem. Don’t stop because the results aren’t in your favor. That’s hindsight. The only thing I do wonder is if Staley should have gone for 2 on the third down to make it 22-13, a two score game given analytically it’s almost better to go for two these days.[/QUOTE]

                        preach!

                        Against Cincy I thought he screwed up twice. He got saved by an Anderson false start

                        I thought not going for 2 there was actually his most dubious decision. Its the Chiefs - they are pretty efficient on offense - I think higher probability of getting the 2 to tie the game at 8 than other teams. Hence, try to get the score to 8 so they are two scores down.

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                        • QSmokey
                          Guardedly Optimistic
                          • Jun 2013
                          • 5660
                          • Kuna, Idaho
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                          I posted a link to this article in the GameDay thread:

                          L.A.'s rookie head coach left a lot of points on the field by attempting fourth-down conversions instead of field goals Monday night. It may have cost his team the game, but his players love the aggressive mindset he's establishing.


                          Staley is trying to insure that we don't have cause to bitch about it being the "same old Chargers" anymore. He's trying to change the cesspool culture that has been keeping this team down for a long time.

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