Should We Stop Going For It On 4th Down?

[northerner]

No, don't need to stop going for it on 4th downs. Been a huge boost for is in most cases.

That being said I think going for it on 4th down at our own 20 was not the right choice. I am sure I will get lambasted by some people on here for saying it but at least read what I have to say and think about it. First, despite all the comment on here about our defense sucking yesterday at that point in the game our D was outperforming the O. The defense at that point had faced 7 drives. They did give up 4 scores but also got 3 stops including a turnover. The O on the other hand had 6 drives (not counting the 1 play drive at the end of the half) for a total of 24 plays and 112 yards. This included the INT by Herbert and a previous turnover on downs by going for it on 4th. The only score they managed was on a short field after the INT.

Now I know people will say the analytics support his decision but the base chart for going on it on 4th and short doesn't take into consideration the whole game situation but just that one play. It also doesn't and can't take into consideration the intangibles of any game\player situations. Things like QB's being off target on throws, dropped passes, in game matchups making it more difficult to complete passes, gain yardage on runs etc. Plus, other numbers would tell you if you fail to make it in that situation the chance of losing the game go up a lot. The chance for an opponent getting a touchdown increases dramatically. And even though the team held the Ravens to a field goal that still makes the chance of winning much harder. Three TDs and 3 XP's (with our crappy kicker) is definitely a lower possibility to overcome than an 18 point deficit. (No XP's needed.)

I got to believe the better option have been better off putting our D (which once again had made several stops) back on the field to try to get a stop and hopefully shorter field for the O which hadn't been able to sustain any lengthy drives (if we would have made the first we still would have had nearly 80 yards to go for the TD) and wasn't performing well. I know a lot won't agree with me but an analytic chart to go for it on 4th down and whatever yardage just isn't then end all answer for every situation.

in that situation, we are handing them at least 3 points if fail the 4th down attempt (which is what happened), so I think you can easily make the case to punt it one last time and avoid giving up more points.. I did not like the call, but overall I like the direction of being aggressive. i like to be at least at our own 40 yard line before going 4th down aggressive. that way, giving up anything less than a first down on defense (after blowing the 4th down attempt) makes it a long field goal attempt.

[Midwestbolt]

I wasn't a big fan of not punting on the 20.

But I understand the decision.

That said, I am a fan of keeping the Offense on 4th down more often.

[Guest]

Herbert made a poor throw on that play.
Herbert was not as accurate, as he is normally, versus the Ravens.
It was a poorly coached and executed single game.
New coaches, systems, terminology are still works in progress.
The entire team seemed to still be recovering from the brownies games.
I’m looking for a strong 4-6 games after the bye and then complete TEAM games to finish off the regular season heading into the playoffs.

Unless we have a statement by Herbert or Palmer about that play, it looked like Palmer stopped his pattern and Herbert expected Palmer to be a couple of yards further up the field. I am not completely discounting the notion of a bad throw. That is possible, but it looked more like the WR and QB were out of sync. I agree that Herbert did not have his best accuracy or play anywhere close to his best game. In fact, I thought it was his second worst game as an NFL player.

I agree that this game was a one off, but despite Staley's brilliant in game tactical decision making, I have spotted a number of curious approaches/decisions by Lombardi in particular that makes me want to ask, "What were you thinking there, Joe?"

[Guest]

in that situation, we are handing them at least 3 points if fail the 4th down attempt (which is what happened), so I think you can easily make the case to punt it one last time and avoid giving up more points.. I did not like the call, but overall I like the direction of being aggressive. i like to be at least at our own 40 yard line before going 4th down aggressive. that way, giving up anything less than a first down on defense (after blowing the 4th down attempt) makes it a long field goal attempt.

True, but they have metrics that address the expected points added by each of these 4th down decisions in terms of where the decision is expected to leave you. These metrics take into account the likelihood of success and the consequences of screwing up the play, including that the other team is in prime position to score. Because the 4th down play from deep in our territory was highly likely to succeed, it was the right call mathematically. That said, sometimes the right call does not work. Yesterday was just one of those days where the whole team flat and nothing worked as well as it ordinarily would for us. It was like the NE game last year where we were clearly the better team, but still lost 45-0. Sometimes the games produce unexpected results.

[like54ninjas]

Unless we have a statement by Herbert or Palmer about that play, it looked like Palmer stopped his pattern and Herbert expected Palmer to be a couple of yards further up the field. I am not completely discounting the notion of a bad throw. That is possible, but it looked more like the WR and QB were out of sync. I agree that Herbert did not have his best accuracy or play anywhere close to his best game. In fact, I thought it was his second worst game as an NFL player.

I agree that this game was a one off, but despite Staley's brilliant in game tactical decision making, I have spotted a number of curious approaches/decisions by Lombardi in particular that makes me want to ask, "What were you thinking there, Joe?"

We agree on the overall performance of the team/coaching.
I think the offensive scheme is so intricate, complex, variable, and growing that it will take through next offseason before it is fully installed plus another for the players (JH10 primarily) to master.
Joe’s play calling is a bit limited because of the right side of the OL.
We are seeing what we have/have not in personnel by seeing young guys play and if the vets still can produce in the new schemes. I expect to see another sizable turnover in player personnel this offseason. We have Cap capital and extra draft picks to do so.

[Charge!]

Live by the sword, die by the sword. We needed to turn things around. Our defense was getting gashed. It was the right call.

agree..... when your defense cant stop anyone, you are forced to go for it to stay in the game...... This team has enough talent to be nearly 100 percent successful on 4th and 2..... its about execution....

[Steve]

Do they maybe need to re-evaluate a few things? Yes. But remember, the staff should be re-evaluating things EVERY game, win or lose.

The 4th down thing has been such a big part of the 4 wins. The execution was bad, and I got the sense that the Ravens were more confident taking on those 4 down calls than other teams had been. Regardless if that is true or not, the execution was just not there, and the best strategy in the world is not going to work if you cannot execute.

A huge part of the loss and general struggles this season has been a lack of physicality. Ravens DB were knocking the Chargers receivers around, and our DB were not doing it back. We have been struggling to stop the run, and have struggled to run.

It should be no surprise that the Chargers are not ready to win a SB. But they do have 12 weeks to do some serious soul searching and decide if they want to be serious about trying this year. If everyone on the O and D makes a serious commitment and puts in the extra hard work, they may be able to improve enough to get over the hump. This team will never be a really physical, run stuffing/smash mouth bunch of slopperknockers, but they can get better. The bye week is a good time to make a good start in that direction.

[Biggestfan]

Id be okay with it if the defense was good

[foreigner]

Id be okay with it if the defense was good

Those 4th downs tries is what has been bailing this defense out... the Defense is half complete.

[Xenos]

Do they maybe need to re-evaluate a few things? Yes. But remember, the staff should be re-evaluating things EVERY game, win or lose.

The 4th down thing has been such a big part of the 4 wins. The execution was bad, and I got the sense that the Ravens were more confident taking on those 4 down calls than other teams had been. Regardless if that is true or not, the execution was just not there, and the best strategy in the world is not going to work if you cannot execute.

A huge part of the loss and general struggles this season has been a lack of physicality. Ravens DB were knocking the Chargers receivers around, and our DB were not doing it back. We have been struggling to stop the run, and have struggled to run.

It should be no surprise that the Chargers are not ready to win a SB. But they do have 12 weeks to do some serious soul searching and decide if they want to be serious about trying this year. If everyone on the O and D makes a serious commitment and puts in the extra hard work, they may be able to improve enough to get over the hump. This team will never be a really physical, run stuffing/smash mouth bunch of slopperknockers, but they can get better. The bye week is a good time to make a good start in that direction.

Your sense is right. It’s probably because John Harbaugh has experience going for it on 4th downs based on the analytics as well.

[Caslon]

Analytics were thrown out the window against the Ravens. Those 4th down tries were desperation attempts. The Chargers had a real motivation lapse. That happens sooner or later during a long season. Hard to keep the hype motor chugging game after game. The loss being so lopsided does bring into question Staley’s motivational sustainability. The team simply should not have lost by so many points.

[Steve]

The thing is, if the Ravens (or anyone else) has done their homework and knows their stuff, they may not have exactly the same analytics data to work off of, but they are in our heads and know what we are up to. Harbaugh may not be as aggressive as Staley with regards to going for it on 4th down, but he has been through the thought process 1000 times, done hundreds of game plans where they have weighed the pros and cons, and really thought things through. And that makes us more predictable.

The same would not be said for every other team. If they choose to be more traditional and punt or kick on 4th down, then they may sit down and try and get in Staley's head, but they may not be able to mimic the thinking.