Chiefs @ Chargers Pregame Discussion (wk 15)

[Lone Bolt]

Best possible scenario? Trey Pipkins getting the game ball after the game....too much to dream for? I'll go with the power of positive thinking...

Either way, much prefer being the David to their Goliath anyways.

[Caslon]

Norman had a game where he didn’t suck. even got some praise. So,..miracles happen. Rather see this team make the playoffs than worry about winning the division. Justin Herbert outta get to the playoffs. Be a crime if he doesn’t Chargers may go 10-7 and get into the playoffs.

[Caslon]

The Chargers can lose to the Chiefs and make it to the playoffs, who’s not for that?!! We’ll take care of them later !

[Bolt-O]

The Chargers can lose to the Chiefs and make it to the playoffs, who’s not for that?!! We’ll take care of them later !

Just win, things take care of themselves. Even with a loss, there is a chance for the #1 seed, but no time to look ahead for the team.

[Topcat]

I believe that’s true.

If Herbert wasn’t in Mahomes’ head, Mahomes wouldn’t have screwed up the old “see it when I believe it” line.

The greatest part is that Herb doesn’t need to talk smack to haunt a man’s cranium. Like a silent assassin, he does the opposite, and let’s his play talk for him. Actions are louder than words.

It’s actually quite brilliant.

This is one of the things I really like about Herbie...no boasting, no lame bulletin-board statements...he just plays...and exceptionally well...

[Topcat]

Best possible scenario? Trey Pipkins getting the game ball after the game....too much to dream for? I'll go with the power of positive thinking...

Either way, much prefer being the David to their Goliath anyways.

Do u believe in miracles?

[PhilaBoltster]

Chris Jones is OUT. That just about offsets having Pipkins start. At least we can concentrate on doubling up on the edges and not also the interior.
Still, I would have Stephen Anderson in the game a lot, either on the left side to chip their RDE every down, or keep him as a 2nd back in the backfield to pick up the any stray rusher that comes through.

[Xenos]

Popper’s mailbag, which mainly pertains to this game. Sounds like chaincrusher is going to be pissed.

https://theathletic.com/3019284/2021/12/16/how-the-chargers-game-plan-vs-chiefs-will-change-with-rashawn-slater-out-mailbag/

The Chargers (8-5) host the Chiefs (9-4) at SoFi Stadium on Thursday night in what is perhaps the biggest game of the NFL regular season so far.

The winner will stand alone in first place in the AFC West and have a clear path to claiming one of the league’s most competitive divisions.

After Justin Herbert’s standout rookie season in 2020, the NFL world salivated over the potential of a Herbert-Patrick Mahomesrivalry. And this is the peak of what we all imagined. Prime time. December. The division on the line. Two of the game’s most electric players duking it out for AFC West supremacy.

Anyone else excited?

Some injury news before we get to your questions.

Chargers starting left tackle Rashawn Slater, who was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Monday, has been ruled out of this game, coach Brandon Staley said Wednesday. Slater had a chance to play if he would have received two negative tests 24 hours apart, but that did not materialize. Third-year tackle Trey Pipkins will start in place of Slater. Much more on this in a bit.

Safety Derwin James (hamstring), running back Austin Ekeler (ankle) and cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (concussion) are all questionable. Staley said Wednesday that all three players will be game-time decisions. James missed Sunday’s win over the Giantsafter his hamstring deteriorated late in the week. Ekeler injured his left ankle late in the third quarter of the Giants game. Samuel has not played since Week 11. Safety Alohi Gilman, who has been out since Week 10 with a quad injury, is also questionable.

For the Chiefs, All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones is on the reserve/COVID-19 list and likely to miss the game. That would be a massive loss for the Kansas City defense. Jones is flatly one of the best defensive players in football. Linebacker Willie Gay (COVID-19) and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (personal reasons) have been ruled out. Tackle Andrew Wylie (knee) is questionable.

You ask. I answer.

It’s a short-week edition of the mailbag.


Can you walk us through the hole we’re in with Slater out? — @NicholasBede

If you were to rank the players the Chargers could least afford to lose at this stage of the season, Herbert would be No. 1. I think you could make a case that Slater is No. 2 — even ahead of James. Slater has been an anchor on the left edge of the Chargers offensive line this season. He is playing at an All-Pro level. He should very much be in the conversation for rookie of the year. Everything about the Chargers offense and game plan will change without Slater in the lineup.

Slater represents a luxury the Chargers have rarely enjoyed in Tom Telesco’s tenure as general manager: a left tackle they can plug in against any rusher in the league and trust to pass protect on an island. He is that good already. The Chargers do not have to allocate pass-protection resources to his side. They can, instead, focus their chips from running backs and tight ends, shifts and other protection schemes to Storm Norton on the right side.

With Pipkins in at left tackle, the Chargers have weaknesses on both edges. They need to help both sides, as the Chiefs have two quality edge rushers, Frank Clark and Melvin Ingram. That is not an enviable position, and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, along with offensive line coach Frank Smith and assistant offensive line coach Shaun Sarrett, must engineer a creative pass protection plan and overall passing-game plan to help mitigate these weaknesses.

What does that mean? Primarily, the Chargers will likely lean heavily on their quick game. Short routes. Getting the ball out of Herbert’s hands as quickly as possible. The Chargers have executed this type of game plan before. Heading into their Week 9 matchup with the Eagles, the Chargers were wary of the Philadelphia defensive front. Herbert was surgically precise in the short area of the field. He averaged 2.19 seconds from snap to throw — his shortest average time of throw of any game this season — and had an average depth of target of 5.66 yards, according to TruMedia. This approach produced the Chargers’ third-most efficient offensive performance of the season in terms of EPA per drive.

In addition, the Chargers will lean heavily on their RPO game. They have generated a lot of production out of RPOs. Herbert is really comfortable on these concepts and has made great decisions on when to pull the ball back and throw and when to hand it off. RPOs are an easy way to keep a defensive line honest, find advantages and get the ball out of a quarterback’s hand more quickly.

Herbert will not have a high average depth of target in this game. I can almost guarantee that. The Chargers cannot tempt fate by dropping Herbert back on five- and seven-stop drops regularly. The fewer true pass-blocking sets for Pipkins, the better. I would also expect a lot of quarterback movement — boots, half-boots, sprint outs. Moving Herbert away from the tackle box will give him more time and take stress off the offensive line. When the Chargers do take their shots downfield, they must keep additional blockers in to max protect. Lombardi has to dial up these shot plays at the right time. The Chargers will only get so many opportunities to push the ball downfield. Losing Slater significantly decreases the margin of error in the passing game. Herbert is likely going to have to pull off some magic in off-script situations to produce explosive plays.

Slater’s absence will be felt equally in the running game. When the Chargers have been able to find a rhythm on the ground this season, it has been behind the trio of Slater, left guard Matt Feiler and center Corey Linsley. The Chargers are averaging 5.08 yards per carry on runs to the left side this season, including 6.1 yards per carry on runs off the left tackle, according to Sharp Football Stats. On runs to the right, they are averaging 3.39 yards per carry. It is hard to see the Chargers producing efficiently on the ground with Slater out, and that makes their offense even less dynamic.

This is a massive opportunity for Pipkins, who has struggled in his playing time so far in his NFL career. Staley has often raved about Smith and Sarrett. How much have they been able to groom and develop Pipkins this season? We will find out Thursday night.


Is Ekeler playing tomorrow night? If so, will he be 100% healthy? — @boppanak

I expect Ekeler to suit up for this game. Staley said Sunday that Ekeler would have been able to return to the Giants game if it was closer in the fourth quarter. That is a good sign.

The bigger question is: How much will Ekeler play, and how effective will he be? Ekeler played at least 65 percent of the snaps in every game from Week 8 to 13, including four games in which he played more than 70 percent of the snaps. The Chargers have relied on him heavily in both the running game and passing game. Even if Ekeler is active, I cannot see him playing that many snaps. He is not 100 percent healthy. Another running back is going to have to shoulder some of the workload, especially if Ekeler suffers a setback with the ankle at some point in the game.

Justin Jackson is the first in line behind Ekeler, and I expect him to have a significant role in this game. Jackson has been the most productive back behind Ekeler as a runner and a pass catcher, even as he has dealt with injuries. And he is the most reliable pass protector of the several backs backing up Ekeler — ahead of Joshua Kelley, Larry Rountree and Darius Bradwell, who is on the practice squad.

Ekeler has been a real weapon this season on option routes out of the backfield, particularly in the red zone. Can he execute those routes consistently on a shaky ankle?

Ekeler’s effectiveness will be an important factor in deciding this game.


Besides Herbert, who are your top three players that have to have an impact to win Thursday night’s prime-time game? — @JohnGillett03

1. Pipkins. The Chargers will give him plenty of help, and the game plan, as I wrote above, should limit the number of times Pipkins is asked to pass protect one-on-one. Still, he will inevitably end up in those situations at some point in the game. Pipkins needs to show up Thursday night, or the Chargers are in trouble.

2. WR Keenan Allen. Allen is at his best going to work in the short area of the field, where he can use his elite route running to create separation. Allen is also outstanding in contested-catch situations. If the Chargers are going to produce in the quick game, Allen must have a massive game. He should be fresh after missing the Giants game while on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Allen was activated off the list Tuesday. His season high for targets is 13. I think he matches that — at least — in this game.

3. CB Michael Davis. Davis had his best game of the season Sunday against the Giants. But he was facing Mike Glennon. Mahomes is a different case. If Samuel cannot go, Davis has to play like the No. 1 corner he is being paid to be.


What’s are the three keys to winning? — @thisisbyron

1. Avoid an early deficit. If the Chargers fall behind early, they will be in a pickle. They will have to pass to get back in the game, and that will allow the Chiefs edge rushers to be more aggressive in pursuing the quarterback. If the Chargers can keep the game close, they can stay more balanced on offense and dig deep into their play action, bootleg and RPO bag.

2. Be efficient on early downs. The Chargers want to avoid third-and-longs in this game. This is a priority every week, but with Slater down and Pipkins starting, third-and-long will be a death sentence. An effective running game would be ideal, but the Chargers can also achieve early-down success with their quick game.

3. Prevent explosive passing plays. This starts with a disciplined pass rush that sets edges and keeps Mahomes in the pocket. Joey Bosa and Uchenna Nwosu did an excellent job of this in the Week 3 matchup with the Chiefs. They were consistent in their rush lanes and rarely rushed too far upfield. Mahomes is lethal when rolling outside the pocket. Rush and coverage work in tandem, and keeping Mahomes in the pocket is only half the battle. They have to stay connected in coverage downfield, especially in scramble-drill situations if Mahomes finds an avenue to escape. It will happen at some point in the game. In Week 3, the Chargers used speedy corner Tevaughn Campbell in the slot to match up with Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. Campbell played really well in the game. If Samuel is out, though, Campbell will likely remain on the outside, with Chris Harris Jr. in the slot. Does Harris have the speed at this stage of his career to hang with Hill? That is a looming question.

[QSmokey]

I'll bet it's LS David Binn.

Another of of those ex-lineman who retire and lose 50 lbs (or more).

[Bolt4Knob]

Just win, things take care of themselves. Even with a loss, there is a chance for the #1 seed, but no time to look ahead for the team.

I keep bringing it up - and I doubt it happens - but a tie is not the worst thing either. The Chargers would still only be one game back, and they would own the tiebreaker by virtue of the earlier game. Now, a loss puts KC up two games with three to play and the same number of losses in the AFC.

Plus the Chargers would still be the 5th seed no matter what else happens this weekend. And they still control their playoff destiny at 8-5-1.

Nobody wants a tie but its better than a loss - well tonight at least.

[ghost]

Chargers media put out a game-day sizzle piece. It sizzles.

[ghost]

Another of of those ex-lineman who retire and lose 50 lbs (or more).

I think David has found his calling.