Chargers Power Rankings / Ratings Going into Wk 16

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  • Bolt-O
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    • Jun 2013
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    Chargers Power Rankings / Ratings Going into Wk 16

    With the Tuesday games, not sure how "complete" the rankings will be this week.

    First group, published before Monday Night Football:

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    Dalton Miller - Pro Football Network 9 (LW 9)


    We can sit on our $75 gaming chairs on Friday morning and scoff at Brandon Staley's decisions to go for it as much as we want, but it doesn't change anything. At its very base, a fourth-down model should calculate a team's win probability if they go for it as compared to kicking. It should also provide historical data for how often teams convert in specific situations.

    Staley also wins the admiration from everyone on his football team --- aside from maybe kicker Dustin Hopkins* --- because of his undying confidence that his team will pick up fourth-down conversions.

    After the Chargers' loss and the Colts' impressive win, they flipped spots in the AFC Wild Card hunt. Yet, with games against the Texans, Broncos, and Raiders still on the schedule, LA has three pretty winnable games left to improve their conference record and try to sneak back into the fifth seed.

    *Author had Michael Badgley, vs. Hopkins

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    Vinnie Iyer - Sporting News x (LW 10)


    The Chargers might be in the first place in the AFC West had they executed better in the red zone and fourth downs against the Chiefs. Instead, they are clinging to a wild-card playoff spots. Regardless, they remain a very dangerous playoff team because Justin Herbert's big arm and Austin Ekeler's quickness.

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    Matt Johnson - Sportsnaut 8 (LW 8)
    Our latest NFL power rankings provide an outlook for all 32 teams, rebuilders and Super Bowl contenders entering the offseason.


    The Donald Parham injury hung over the Thursday Night Football game and the Los Angeles Chargers weren't quite right after. But this team battled and Justin Herbert demonstrated that he'll be able to compete in shootouts with Patrick Mahomes for years to come.

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    Russell S. Baxter - Fansided 14 (LW 13)
    There was the rescheduling of numerous games. It was a rough few days for a bunch of division leaders, hence numerous changes to the NFL Power Rankings.


    Thanks to a win at Kansas City in Week 3, the Bolts were in position to sweep the Chiefs for the first time since 2013. Justin Herbert threw for 236 yards and two scores (1 interception) and also ran for a touchdowns.

    The Bolts also gashed the Chiefs' defense for 192 yards on the ground. But Brandon Staley's team was 2-of-5 on fourth-down and left points on the field. And his defense had no answers for Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter and OT.

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  • Bolt-O
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    #2
    Most of the individual rankers are holding off until the Tuesday games over. Here are some that didn't

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    Walter Cherepinsky - Walter Football 9 (LW 9)


    The Chargers should have swept the Chiefs. They squandered so many opportunities with scoreless drives ending at the Kansas City 5, 43, 1, 28, and 1. I get the feeling they'll win a possible rubber match in the playoffs.

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    Matt Verderame - Fansided.com 9 (LW 9)
    Looking at the NFL power rankings heading into Week 16, the Arizona Cardinals are falling while the Indianapolis Colts are rolling along.


    The Chargers aren't going to drop for almost beating the Chiefs. They were right there.

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    Mike Florio - PFT/NBC Sports 14 (LW 11)
    [Editor's note: With two Week 15 games left on Tuesday night, we decided to post the Week 16 rankings now, with an update to come based on the outcomes of Washgton-Eagles and Seahawks-Rams.


    The future is bright. The present is murky.

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    And one Consensus Ranking:

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    ESPN Nation Consensus 12 (LW 12)


    How hot is Brandon Staley's seat: 1. Cold seat

    The Chargers haven't been to the playoffs since the 2018 campaign. This team turned around when quarterback Justin Herbert was drafted in 2020 and Staley arrived after the end of last season. The organization and the players are squarely behind the coach's "going for it on fourth down" decisions -- even when they don't always work. He has a young, smart staff and talented players on both side of the ball. And most importantly, Staley has their trust. Everything down to the activation period (stretching and calisthenics) has been well-received and emulated around the league. -- Shelley Smith

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    • Bolt-O
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      #3
      Current AFC seeding, shouldn't change with today's games (all NFC)

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      • Bolt-O
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        #4
        More Power Rankings, individuals:

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        Frank Schwab - Yahoo Sports 12 (LW 11)


        The Chargers blew leads of eight and seven points in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs, then gave up a touchdown on the first possession of overtime. They'll probably make the playoffs, and nobody should have any faith in them figuring out how to win.

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        Nate Davis - USA Today 12 (LW 10)


        Impressive commitment to the run lately, Bolts averaging better than 130 yards over the past five weeks. And impressive commitment to analytics by coach Brandon Staley.

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        Pete Prisco - CBS Sports 10 (LW 8)


        That was a tough loss to the Chiefs, but they are still have the look of a playoff team. Justin Herbert is special.

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        Dan Hanzus - NFL.com 10 (LW 9)
        With 15 weeks of the 2021 regular season in the books, only one NFL team has clinched a playoff spot -- and the Power Rankings are as fluid as ever. Check out Dan Hanzus' updated look at the league hierarchy, 1-32.


        Is there such a thing as believing in your guys ... too much? Over and over, the Chargers passed on easy points on Thursday night in favor of bold risks that didn't pay off. Two trips inside the Kansas City 5-yard line ended with fourth-down incompletions; another trip imploded with a goal-line fumble. More conservative decision-making by Brandon Staley likely would have avoided the fate of Thursday night's painful overtime loss to the Chiefs -- but Staley has a vision. "That's the way we're going to play around here," the coach said after the game. " ... With a quarterback like ours, with an offense like ours, that's how we're going to play."

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        Bryan Fischer - Athlon Sports x (LW 8)


        (waiting)

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        • Bolt-O
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          #5
          Consensus Rankings:

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          MMQB SI.COM Consensus 10 (LW 11)
          https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/12/22/nf...ackers-cowboys

          The only legitimate criticism of Brandon Staley's fourth-down aggressiveness is that you wish the passing game were more aggressive attacking downfield on the first three downs. Defensively, do they have enough outside of Joey Bosa in the trenches to stay out of shootouts in what's now, essentially, playoff football? -- Gary Gramling

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          Bleacher Report Consensus 10 (LW 10)
          https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...tering-week-16

          The Los Angeles Chargers had a chance to assume first place in the AFC West with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15.

          They were unable to take advantage of that opportunity, and some have blamed head coach Brandon Staley's decision to go for it on fourth down three times inside field-goal range.

          Staley dismissed those criticisms.

          "The real football people understand that what I'm doing is playing to the strengths of our football team," Staley told reporters. "What I'm doing is I'm trying to make the decisions that I think are going to win us the game. And I'm ready to live with all that smoke that comes with it. And I've been very transparent about that."

          "The analytics crowd no doubt loved Staley's aggressiveness," Davenport said. "And going for it is the 'it' thing to do. But the reality is that the Chargers were O-fer on those fourth-down attempts, including two from inside the 10 and one right before halftime. There's a thin line between aggressive and reckless, and now the Bolts are essentially done in the AFC West and have a margin for error that is equally thin."

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          Danny Kelly - The Ringer Consensus 11 (LW 10)
          https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/1...s-bills-saints

          The Contenders 9-16
          <no blurb>

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          Reddit NFLPowerRankers Consensus 10 (LW 9)


          Hell of a game. There's certainly been a lot of debate among national (and internet) pundits who question Brandon Staley's 4th down aggressiveness since it failed to produce results in this contest, but the team is likely not in playoff position as it stands without that kind of aggressiveness that the Chargers have been doing all season. Against a good team like Kansas City, it isn't the craziest thought to gamble inside the 5 for a chance at a touchdown instead of an easy field goal. Donald Parham appears to be okay though, and that's a victory that we can all be happy for. Next up, the team heads to Houston.

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          AP Pro 32 Consensus 11 (LW 9)


          <no blurb>

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          The Athletic Consensus 9 (LW 9)
          https://theathletic.com/3029688/2021...micah-parsons/

          Our gift to you: A fourth-down, walk-off touchdown to make the playoffs. You can imagine the Week 18 scenario. The Chargers are in Las Vegas, needing a win over the Raiders to secure their first playoff appearance since 2018. Los Angeles trails, 31-28, and faces a fourth-and-goal at the Raiders' 3-yard line with 5 seconds left. Sure, a field goal would send the game to overtime. But Brandon Staley says, "To hell with all that." The Chargers call for a rub route that frees Keenan Allen in the corner of the end zone, but the Raiders blanket the all-world wide receiver. Quarterback Justin Herbert tucks the ball instead, sprints to his right, dives for the pylon and ... touchdown! Long live the fourth-down gamblers.

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          Last edited by Bolt-O; 12-22-2021, 12:22 PM. Reason: All final

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          • Bolt-O
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            #6
            Football Outsiders DVOA:



            Offense: #3 overall, #3 pass, #12 rush
            Defense: #24 overall, #12 pass, #31 rush

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            • chargeroo
              Fan since 1961
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              #7
              Originally posted by Bolt-O View Post
              Football Outsiders DVOA:



              Offense: #3 overall, #3 pass, #12 rush
              Defense: #24 overall, #12 pass, #31 rush
              I consider those numbers as directing us where our emphasis should be in the draft. We need to shore up the defense.
              THE YEAR OF THE FLIP!

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              • Bolt-O
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                #8
                Aikman:

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                • Bolt-O
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                  #9
                  Ranking Summary:

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                  • Bolt-O
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                    #10
                    Rating Summary: Final



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                    NFL Playoff Standings - https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff
                    PlayoffStatus.com Draft Order - http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfldraftorder.html
                    Tankathon.com Draft Order - http://www.tankathon.com/nfl
                    USA Today Sagarin - https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/
                    TeamRankings - https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/ran...ctive-by-other
                    ProFootballReference Standings - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/
                    Massey Ratings - https://www.masseyratings.com/nfl/ratings
                    FiveThirtyEight Elo - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/
                    numberFire NFL Rankings - https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/teams/power-rankings
                    Odds Shark Power Rankings - https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/power-rankings
                    ESPN NFL Football Power Index - https://www.espn.com/nfl/fpi
                    Draft Kings Nation - https://dknation.draftkings.com/authors/david-fucillo
                    Aikman Efficiency Rating - http://www.aikman.com/Aikman-Efficiency-Ratings
                    Football Outsiders DVOA - https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...fficiency/2021
                    Covers.com Ranking - https://www.covers.com/Sports/NFL/PowerRankings
                    ARGH Ratings - http://www.arghratings.com/nfl.html

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                    • Bolt-O
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                      #11
                      Clinching Scenarios:

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