2022 Official Chargers Season Discussion

[21&500]

Vote for Morgan Moses because he's durable, cheap and a good run blocker who will likely look better in pass blocking if he's blocking for Herbert

And I've always been a fan of Fournette so if he's available, I'm comfortable with him as our early down RB. You know what you're getting, solid powerful runs that wear out the D
nice yac on catches
No fumbles, just all around pro on the field.

[DennisR91]

It was against the Raiders. Slater’s worse game. If we’re judging Fieler by that game, maybe we should look at everybody.

Feiler, like Slater, has been pretty damn solid most of the season.

long season
17 this year vs 10 games last year for slater
That’s almost double

[Parcells]

Vote for Morgan Moses because he's durable, cheap and a good run blocker who will likely look better in pass blocking if he's blocking for Herbert

And I've always been a fan of Fournette so if he's available, I'm comfortable with him as our early down RB. You know what you're getting, solid powerful runs that wear out the D
nice yac on catches
No fumbles, just all around pro on the field.

Fournette played on a one year deal for less than $4 million. If we could get him for anything close to that, I'd jump at that. That would be a great parking with Ekeler and a small cap number. Fournette doesn't seem like the kind of guy we would sign though.

[Xenos]

I’m with Popper on this. We got steadily better as the season progressed especially after getting Roberts and Hopkins. Would have made more sense to fire Hill instead of Swinton

[Xenos]

Popper’s year in breakdown. Let’s start with the good which is the offense, as well as Staley’s attention to keeping the players healthy and safe. Read the last quote by Ekeler.
https://theathletic.com/3070256/2022...wrong-in-2021/

The Chargers missed the playoffs despite Justin Herbert playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and that hard-to-grasp fact leaves us with one overarching question.

How?

The answer is layered.

In this postmortem report, addressing the good and bad from this season, we will dig through those layers.

All statistics courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise noted.
What went right


Brandon Staley’s first season as Chargers head coach was not a failure. Far from it. Disappointing? Sure. But it was disappointing primarily because the Chargers were playing meaningful games in December and January — and playing meaningful snaps right up until the final play of the regular season. If you are going to criticize Staley for his decisions and his defense — and these are fair criticisms — then you must also give him credit for leading a significant organizational turnaround.

The Chargers were 3-8 when December started last season. They were 4-7 when December started in 2019. They were 6-5 on Dec. 1 this season and won two games to start the month to put themselves firmly in the playoff picture. The season did not end how the Chargers hoped, but getting to that point late in the season was unquestionably a step forward.

The priority for Staley in his first year was elevating and developing Herbert. Regression was not an option. And the Chargers’ offseason strategy reflected that.

Staley arrived at the Chargers’ facility in Orange County in late January, and from Day 1, he was determined to protect his quarterback. As Staley put it, he wanted to be a “line of scrimmage team.” The Chargers signed three offensive line starters in free agency — center Corey Linsley, left guard Matt Feilerand right guard Oday Aboushi. They used the No. 13 pick to select offensive tackle Rashawn Slater, who slid in as the immediate starter at left tackle.

The Chargers used a majority of their other offseason capital to add to their offense. They took wide receiver Joshua Palmer and tight end Tre’ McKitty with their two third-round picks. They signed tight end Jared Cook in free agency. Staley, along with general manager Tom Telesco, very clearly focused on creating the best possible structure around Herbert. They did little to bolster their defensive personnel. The moves effectively amounted to the bare minimum. They needed a starting corner, so they drafted Asante Samuel Jr. in the second round. They needed a third edge rusher, so they signed Kyler Fackrell to a one-year deal. They needed a fourth defensive lineman, so they signed Christian Covington to a one-year deal. But the resources were almost entirely devoted to the offense — really, to Herbert.

And it worked.

Led by play caller Joe Lombardi, the Chargers had an elite offense this season by any measure.

They finished fourth in offensive EPA/play, offensive DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric), offensive success rate, points scored and red zone efficiency. They led the league in touchdowns per drive and were second in points per drive. They had the fifth-lowest three-and-out percentage in the league. They were second in down set conversion rate, which is the percentage of first downs converted into a new set of downs. Austin Ekeler scored 20 touchdowns. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen each went for more than 1,000 receiving yards.

The Chargers finished fourth in the league in pressure rate allowed. Slater was a revelation at left tackle. Linsley played up to his big-money contract. Feiler was steady. The right side was leaky at times, and those pass protection issues cost the Chargers wins. Look no further than Storm Norton’s performance in the finale against the Raiders, or against the Cowboys, or against the Patriots. They signed Michael Schofield off the street in September, and he was expectedly up and down after replacing Aboushi, who tore his ACL in Week 5. But the line did enough to protect Herbert, who mitigated some weaknesses with his pocket awareness, escapability and quick processing.

Staley vowed to create “a system for Justin,” and he succeeded. Herbert was better in 2021 than he was as a rookie. He threw for over 5,000 yards. He set a franchise record for touchdown passes in 16 games. His decision making noticeably improved as the season progressed after a few shaky performances in the middle of the season. He finished fourth in EPA/dropback and third in QBR. A lot was made of Herbert’s average depth of target, and he finished 21st in that statistic with an average air yards per attempt of 7.55. But that did not detract from how explosive the Chargers’ passing attack was. They had the fifth-most explosive completions in the league.

“We had to get that right,” Staley said of Herbert’s development, “and I know that we got that right.”

The Chargers were slightly reliant on Herbert’s playmaking on third and fourth downs. They finished 11th in EPA/play on early downs compared to second on third and fourth downs. Herbert led all quarterbacks in EPA/dropback on third and fourth downs. But those numbers are skewed by some early-down struggles in the beginning stages of the season. The Chargers ranked 24th in early-down EPA/play in the first six weeks of the season. From Week 8 on, after the bye, the Chargers ranked second in EPA/play on early downs.

Their rushing attack had good and bad moments. Slater, Feiler and Linsley created most of the production on the ground. On runs to the left guard, left tackle and off left tackle, the Chargers averaged 4.91 yards per carry, according to Sharp Football Stats. On all other runs, the Chargers averaged 3.61 yards per carry. They finished 15th in EPA/rush on designed runs. The Chargers had enough of a threat in the run game, primarily because of the left side of their line, to keep defenses honest and run the ball effectively when the moment called for it, like in their four-minute offense.

Overall, the offense was not the problem. Lombardi was not the problem. This unit gave the Chargers a chance to compete pretty much every week.

Staley also created competitive advantages through his decision making, particularly on fourth downs. He was aggressive not only because he leaned into analytics, but also because he believed — rightfully so — in his prodigious quarterback. Fourth-down failures down the stretch of this season, most notably against the Chiefs in Week 15 and against the Raiders in the finale, have created some recency bias. But on aggregate, the Chargers undoubtedly benefited from the aggressive approach. They won against the Chiefs in Week 3 in part due to decisions to go for it on fourth down. And in Week 4 against the Raiders. And in Week 5 against the Browns. And in Week 9 against the Eagles. And in Week 13 against the Bengals.

Quite frankly, the Chargers would not have been in the playoff picture if Staley did not take this approach to fourth-down decision making.

Using Ben Baldwin’s win probability model, we can see just how much sounder Staley’s process was compared to Anthony Lynn. In 2020, in situations in which the Chargers could gain 2 or more percentage points of win probability by going for it, Lynn went for it roughly 50 percent of the time. In those same situations in 2020, Staley went for it nearly 80 percent of the time.

The Chargers led the league in EPA on fourth downs this season.

Finally, the Chargers were able to stay mostly healthy. They finished in the bottom five in the league in games lost due to injury, according to Man Games Lost. And this is not an accident. Sure, some luck was involved. But Staley made player health a priority as soon as he arrived, and he instituted policies and mechanisms that kept the Chargers healthier than they have been in recent seasons.

“There’s always a luck factor, but he’s definitely made an emphasis of it,” Ekeler told me in the week leading up to the season finale. “That’s him listening to the team. Look, we’ve had a lot of injuries that have affected our past seasons, for as long as I’ve been here. So, I think he’s kind of caught up to the times as far as taking modern medicine and modern practices, all the activation stuff we do. Literally for 30 minutes before every practice, we do rollouts and we do band work and we do all this stuff that I think has played a huge part to our success on the field because we’re healthy, we’re stretched, everything is good to go. The game keeps getting faster. The people keep getting bigger, people keep getting stronger, so we need to actually update our old methods of training and protecting ourselves.

“In any staff that I’ve been involved in, I’ve never had as much activation, stretching, band work. I’ve never had as much as what we’re required to do right now. I’ve been playing football a long time, and this is the most I’ve ever rolled out, stretched and got ready to practice.”

[Xenos]

And the bad things:

What went wrong


The Chargers ranked 30th in combined defense and special teams EPA this season. This is a good representation of how much help a quarterback is getting from the other phases for the team. Herbert got little help. Only the 3-14 Jaguars and 4-13 Jets ranked lower than the Chargers in combined defense and special teams EPA.

Staley joined the Chargers with a respected reputation as a defensive wizard. But his defense this year was bad, no matter how you slice it.

The Chargers defense finished this season ranked:

• 28th in EPA/play
• 32nd in third-down efficiency
• 28th in rush defense EPA/play
• 26th in red zone defense
• 26th in DVOA
• 27th in weighted DVOA (which puts more emphasis on more recent performances)
• 30th in run defense DVOA
• 29th in defensive points allowed
• 31st in defensive points allowed in the fourth quarter and overtime
• 25th in explosive plays allowed

The two primary issues were run defense and third-down defense.

The Chargers did not have enough talent on their defensive line to consistently stop the run, and that deficiency was magnified when players such as Justin Jones and Linval Joseph missed time. It was a concern entering the season, and it materialized into a glaring weakness over 18 weeks.

The front was not physical enough on a snap-to-snap basis. And the tackling was not good enough in the front, on the edge, and at the second and third levels. The Chargers missed 150 tackles this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Safety Nasir Adderley missed a team-high 18 tackles. Joey Bosa had 13 missed tackles. The Chargers gave up the fifth-most explosive runs — defined as a rush of 12 or more yards — this season.

The poor run defense affected the third-down defense. The Chargers defense faced the 10th-most third downs with 5 yards or fewer to gain this season, and they did not perform well in those situations. They allowed opposing offenses to convert on 68.8 percent of those downs, the highest rate in the league. Of the 75 conversions the Chargers allowed on third-and-5-or-fewer, 36 came on designed runs. On third downs with between 3 and 5 yards to gain, opposing offenses attempted 16 runs. They converted on 12 of those attempts.

Early in the season, the Chargers were excellent in pass coverage on third downs. They actually led the league in conversion rate on third-and-6-or-more through the first six weeks of the season. But as they dealt with attrition in the secondary in the second half of the season, that deteriorated. Samuel, Michael Davis, Adderley and Derwin James missed time. The Chargers played more than 60 unique secondary variations this season. They did not have their starting secondary on the field after Week 1 until the final two games of the season.

After leading the league in third-and-6-or-more defense through the first six weeks, the Chargers ranked 30th in that area from Week 8 to 18.

This does not all fall on the secondary, though. The Chargers did not generate enough pressure in their pass rush. They ranked 19th in pressure rate overall, and on third-and-longs, they ranked 25th in pressure rate.

Staley and Telesco have a ton of work to do with this defense. Jones, Joseph, Fackrell, Covington, linebacker Kyzir White, edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu and defensive back Chris Harris Jr. are slated to hit free agency. That means cap space and an opportunity for Staley to truly remake this defense with players who fit his scheme.

The Chargers devoted their offseason resources to the offense. They were determined to give Herbert the infrastructure to succeed. And their hope was that Staley, with his scheme and coaching, could take the existing pieces and turn this into a quality defense. It did not work. They did not have enough depth on that side of the ball once the attrition hit. Staley and his staff did not coach well enough. Even with the injuries and COVID-19 absences, the Chargers should have finished better than 26th in defensive DVOA.

The overhaul needs to start on the defensive front. And Staley said earlier this week that improving the defensive line will be “the center of our thought process moving forward.”

Becoming a line-of-scrimmage team means winning in the trenches on offense and defense.

In reality, though, the Chargers need players at all levels of this defense.

“Every offseason is a big opportunity,” Staley said. “I think last year when I got here, that was kind of the feeling on offense. I think that we were able to attack that accordingly. I think that the way it shaped this year, there’s more of that on defense, but I really think that it’s the quality of who you onboard regardless of what side of the ball it’s on. I think what we have to be able to do is onboard the type of player that we need in order to become the team we’re capable of being.”

The Chargers finished the season 28th in special teams EPA and DVOA. But adding returner Andre Roberts and kicker Dustin Hopkins in the bye week spearheaded a turnaround. The Chargers were 17th in special teams EPA from Week 8 to 17. (They fell in the ranking after Roberts fumbled on a punt and Hopkins missed just his second field goal with the Chargers against the Raiders.) And they finished 18th in weighted special teams DVOA, an indication of their improvement down the stretch.

It still was not good enough. The Chargers were playing so many young players on special teams, the early-season struggles were expected. All four of the Chargers’ top finishers in special teams snap percentage — Nick Niemann, Chris Rumph, Kemon Hall and Amen Ogbongbemiga — had not played an NFL regular-season snap before this season.

They found a returner in Roberts. They found a kicker in Hopkins. The young players improved over the course of the season, and they will only get better with more playing time.

“It’s a work in progress,” Staley said of his special teams. “I think that there was progress made. I think there’s a lot of work to do in terms of being a consistent team and being the type of team that we expect to be. … A lot of it is teaching and development, getting people in the right roles, establishing the depth that you need on teams in order to be successful. I think that it’s a work in progress. I think that we definitely made improvements in trying to create a culture there, but there is a lot of work to do.”

Herbert and the Chargers offense were playoff-worthy this season.

The defense and special teams were not.

And that is really what 2021 boils down to for this team.

[Xenos]

We’re hidden behind the Eagles but we did well with injuries this year.

[Xenos]

What??!!!

[Bolt4Knob]

And the bad things:

Good read - thanks for posting. I missed Popper sending that out

And he is right, it was defense and special teams. Too many times, the offense had a fine line to walk in terms of margin for error

Telesco and Staley have lots of work to do on the roster.

[Xenos]

Good read - thanks for posting. I missed Popper sending that out

And he is right, it was defense and special teams. Too many times, the offense had a fine line to walk in terms of margin for error

Telesco and Staley have lots of work to do on the roster.

I think it was delayed because of the Swinton firing. He Tweeted it out shortly after the news. Still wouldn’t have fired Swinton.

[Bolt4Knob]

I think it was delayed because of the Swinton firing. He Tweeted it out shortly after the news. Still wouldn’t have fired Swinton.

I hope he didn't fire Swinton just to hire somebody he worked with with the Bears (Tabor) or McMahon (Broncos)

Broncos ST were abysmal this year

Telesco did sign Ryan Smith for ST but I think other than that, a lot of rookies were the core of those teams. One would have thought if they improved the last half, they would improve next year

Granted, I am not opposed to Staley trying to upgrade the ST coordinator job - just hope he is banging on Telescos desk to get a couple more veterans to truly help out

[Xenos]

I hope he didn't fire Swinton just to hire somebody he worked with with the Bears (Tabor) or McMahon (Broncos)

Broncos ST were abysmal this year

Telesco did sign Ryan Smith for ST but I think other than that, a lot of rookies were the core of those teams. One would have thought if they improved the last half, they would improve next year

Granted, I am not opposed to Staley trying to upgrade the ST coordinator job - just hope he is banging on Telescos desk to get a couple more veterans to truly help out

Tabor is apparently good. McMahon not so much.