The "Go For It" Discussion Thread.

[Maniaque 6]

If you go for it on 4th and goal at the two yard line
1- you get the TD and have 7 points insted of 3 = +4 and the opponent get the ball at the +/- 25
2- you don't get it and you get 0 instead of 3 = -3 but the opponent is deep in his territory (good compensation !)

At midfield, it is tempting to try to extend the drive
If you don't get it, it's like you give 25 yards at the other team, just like a good punt return (nice risk)
If you get it, you are near the FG's range

At your 20, it's very risky
If you get it, it's not sure you will get another 1st down after = possible gain of 10 -15 yards (not worth it !)
If you don't get it, you give at least 3 points maybe 7
It seems to me a very bad gamble.

[Boltjolt]

I don't mind going for it but at our own 18 yard line isn't a time to do that early in the game imo.

[Steve]

To me the big thing I would seriously consider is adding in the "Madden factor". Long before going for it was a thing, John Madden used to say try and take those first points in the game are the hardest to get, so get them anyway you can. So, don't be afraid to kick the 1st one to get points, then you can start going for it one 4th down.

A couple of reasons for it.

1). Madden used to say that it takes some of the pressure off the O, gets everyone to relax and focus a bit more. I used to think that was bullshit until I actually did some coaching, and then became a firm believer in it. That is somewhat biased, as the little league coaching I did teams didn't average near as many points as NFL teams do, but the year we started doing it, we scored a lot more points overall, and we (coaches) felt like it was a big part of it. Parents still wanted to lynch us because we weren't going for it and settling for FG.

2). I think we can win almost any game, provided that it stays close, just because of Herbert. He makes us competitive. Young teams often get shell-shocked by teams that come out and score a couple of quick TD, giving them a quick lead. You simply don't have that same shock factor if you are on the scoreboard. 14-3 is not nearly as bad as 14-0.

As far as KC goes, I think Staley was desperate to get a lead. He knew that KC was going to come back and make up a bunch of points at the end, so going for it was how he tried to do that. Teams with worse offenses, he didn't do it so much. Giants, he hardly went for it at all. The flip side of that is that as the D gets better, he may not want to stop 4th down conversions altogether, but you don't have to be so aggressive. You have more margin. Better ST would help too.

[NoMoreChillies]

4th and Staley

i'm in

[WindsorUK]

Only 2 times I didn't like him going for it were the end of the half against Chiefs and at our own 18 against the Turds( neither felt right at the time and both obviously cost of games)
Every other one, absolutely loved it!

[northerner]

Only 2 times I didn't like him going for it were the end of the half against Chiefs and at our own 18 against the Turds( neither felt right at the time and both obviously cost of games)
Every other one, absolutely loved it!

i agree. i would also add the first drive against the chiefs. 4th and goal at the 5 instead of starting off the game with 3 points is a bad risk (IMHO). once we get near the 50 or past the 50, anything goes!

[dmac_bolt]

Converted fourth-quarter fourth downs were crucial in wins at Kansas City, against Cleveland and at Philadelphia. “A lot of the decisions that are being second-guessed,” Staley said, “some of those same decisions gave us a huge opportunity to be in the hunt

The 22 conversions helped extend drives that produced 11 touchdowns and three field goals for 86 points.

After the 12 failed attempts, the opposition scored six times — five field goals and one touchdown for 22 points.
…
I know that I can improve; he said. But I feel like for my first year as an NFL head coach, I wouldnt change a lot

Net +74 points. This sums up my perspective of the season and the change in approach and vision. Some mistakes were made, but the same approach that lost a few also won several. I like where he’s going and i do believe he’s the most “thinking” coach we’ve had in a really long time and will actually learn and improve every year.

[Xenos]

Only 2 times I didn't like him going for it were the end of the half against Chiefs and at our own 18 against the Turds( neither felt right at the time and both obviously cost of games)
Every other one, absolutely loved it!

I still don’t believe those two choices cost us the game. Even though I wouldn’t have done it either. And while I’m more risk adverse than Staley, I can see why he did what he did.

[Xenos]

As someone who uses probabilities every day in trading, I agree that using analytics as the basis of 'going for it' is the way to go. The problem with the plays that didn't work was the lousy execution or the the lousy play selection. Improved Talent and experience should increase the probability of success, if you have a sufficient number of tries, and the play caller could get better.

This. All of this!

[FoutsFan]

Only 2 times I didn't like him going for it were the end of the half against Chiefs and at our own 18 against the Turds( neither felt right at the time and both obviously cost of games)
Every other one, absolutely loved it!

Agree 100%

[Guest]

One friend I spoke with pointed out that those probabilities include garbage time plays against our favorite prevent defenses and that will throw the probability off.

But those same probabilities are probabilities for all teams in those situations. We already know that Herbert is better than other QBs in certain situations.

[richpjr]

i agree. i would also add the first drive against the chiefs. 4th and goal at the 5 instead of starting off the game with 3 points is a bad risk (IMHO). once we get near the 50 or past the 50, anything goes!

If my memory is right, we were 2 of 5 on 4th down conversions against the Chiefs and scored 2 TDs for 14 points. If we would have kicked fgs all 5 times and made all 5, it would have been 15 points. This really seems pretty much a wash to me.