POLL: Will TT Pick Up Tillery's 5th Year Option?

[Guest]

What part of running 13.2% of the time do you not understand?

It is the success rate that matters and that success rate is likely higher against us. And that 13.2% of the time can easily end up being greater against us with Tillery on the field as opponents see an obviously deficient run defender on the field with us playing a formation that is susceptible to the run as a team that is weak against the run in general.

[Guest]

In general, you want the opposing offense to run on 3rd and long. If they do run, it's usually up to the second and third levels to get the stop as it's likely some sort of draw or delay.

I can't believe this has to be said.

You want teams to run on 3rd and long if you can stop the run. That is exactly the problem with Tillery being on the field. The point of the discussion is that if Tillery is on the field, opponents will not be forced to pass the ball. They will frequently be able to run well enough to get either a first down or enough yardage such that they can consider going for it on 4th down if their field position is good enough.

Also, if Tillery is on the field, it does not matter what running play is called. It is likely that it will be up to the second or third level to get the stop. That is the the norm for Tillery involved run defense, not the exception. I agree that traditionally in those situations the play would often be a draw or delay, but frankly, with Tillery on the field, I think other running plays would be effective as well.

I think even Xenos understands that Tillery is a run defending liability.

[Guest]

Obviously lol

It is laughable that you are attempting to cite a reference to league wide expected points results as if Tillery's or our team's run defending abilities would in any way produce results that resemble those produced by the league as a whole.

[21&500]

Dear Duke,
Do you work with iDL too??

[Xenos]

It is laughable that you are attempting to cite a reference to league wide expected points results as if Tillery's or our team's run defending abilities would in any way produce results that resemble those produced by the league as a whole.

Ah yes, Tillery being on the field will magically change how most teams operate on third and long. Even though teams didn’t do this to us last year either with our horrible run defense and Tillery being a full time starter.

[equivocation]

Well, it did happen one notable time. And that was the fault of Murray and Harris.

[Guest]

Ah yes, Tillery being on the field will magically change how most teams operate on third and long. Even though teams didn’t do this to us last year either with our horrible run defense and Tillery being a full time starter.

As I have already stated, I do not like relying in the failure of our opponents to take advantage of something that is available to them. That is no way to run a defense.

[Xenos]

As I have already stated, I do not like relying in the failure of our opponents to take advantage of something that is available to them. That is no way to run a defense.

Honestly I hope opponents are that stupid and decide to “take advantage” of us on 3rd and long repeatedly.

[Guest]

Honestly I hope opponents are that stupid and decide to “take advantage” of us on 3rd and long repeatedly.

So do I. Only I hope they do it in the preseason so that Staley sees it and can keep Tillery off of the field before it hurts us in games that count.

[Critty]

Well, it did happen one notable time. And that was the fault of Murray and Harris.

I think I remember that play. Instead of being physical Murray tried to juke his way to the tackle and open the window for another easy 10yards.

[powderblueboy]

Assuming that equivocation properly stated the stat he cited, you are delusional. What part of a 23% success rate running the ball being almost as successful as a 28% success rate passing the ball do you not understand?

Lets not get carried away with these stats.
Remember, only 13.8% of 3rd down and long plays are running plays, so the element of surprise is greatly at play.

Let's see: 23% success rate on 13.8% of 3rd & longs means 3.3% of 3rd and longs are a conversion through running the football (do qb scrambles count?).
How many 3rd and longs are there in a game?

There are about 65 offensive plays per game in regulation. Of those, maybe 15 - 20 are 3rd downs, and lets say half are 3rd and longs (???).
So we are talking about 8 - 10 plays per game, and 3 % of those are successful 3rd and long running plays.
:below:

So once every blue moon, an offense will convert on 3rd and long running the football.
Again you are right:hello:, and lets base everything around preventing that from happening.....Tillery should never step on a football field with the Chargers..

[powderblueboy]

:stirpot:
Think they can put Jerry out there on 3rd and long.
Situations of 8yd or more per this football outsiders article.

NO! NEVER MEANS NEVER! There is now irrefutable statistical proof.