Welcome JT Woods, DB, Baylor (R3, #79)

[TexanBeerlover]

Maximizing draft pick value is the very definition of a how a GM succeeds in the draft. It is a problem when we pick up less talent through the draft than our opponents. That is the opposite of what we want to be doing, but that is exactly what happens when we reach for players and lack the flexibility of being able to pivot when the draft board presents opportunities to spring into action.

Scheme fit is irrelevant to the player's overall league wide value, though it may limit which teams choose to select the player. Both Travis Jones and Otito Ogbonnia fit our scheme, but one is a consensus big board early/mid round 2 player (Jones) and the other is a an early round 6 player (Ogbonnia). Neither player's value changes because that player fits our scheme.

It should be easy for an NFL GM to conduct the draft as teams have many months to prepare for the draft by the time it finally happens. There is too much at stake for draft strategy errors to be taking place.

Winning a Super Bowl is maximizing resources, by whatever means necessary.

Scheme fit is a Staley hallmark. You must not care too much for him?

GM’s can only be judged off track records. Telesco has been poor past round one until Staley. Even then Staley gets overly need/scheme/familiar tendencies. However that should not preclude becoming successful just predictable. To your point, other GM/War Rooms surely can grasp a Staley target. He is too open and tells everybody exactly what he likes and thinks. You hear Andy Reid and you have no freaking clue he talks in riddle and generalizations.

Now. We can ride it out until our selections and take BPA or we can get cute, roll the dice and watch our guys get signed by other franchises. Your choice!

[Pat_Swindle]

The poster to whom I responded (Steve) asserted that it was no big deal that we selected a player early.

If that were so, it would not matter if we selected an UDFA caliber player at #17 overall. Obviously, it matters and matters greatly. The whole point of the draft is to maximize team talent with the picks we have. Whether through trade or selection, we need to use our picks to produce the best overall group of players.

Of course Telesco had Woods as his highest ranked player at #79. He is assuming he knows and that everyone else is wrong and drafting accordingly. He has to be right just to get fair value from the Woods pick.

While it is not always true, when it is one versus the consensus in these NFL player rankings, usually the consensus is correct and the outlier opinion is wrong.

I have already explained several times about a good strategy in these instances where there is a large discrepancy between the GM's ranking and the consensus ranking--take the player at or near the consensus value. That way, if the GM is truly the only one that got it right, then the GM gets great value instead of wasting draft capital on the next Larry English, Jacob Hester, or Jonas Mouton.

There are many players available in the draft. It is a poor draft strategy to be so desirous of a particular player that draft value is sacrificed to reach for the player.

Unless they wanted to trade some of their late round picks (at that point, they hadn't yet) to move up in the 4th round to select JT Woods, it still wouldn't have been guaranteed he'd still be on the board. I think they had a hunch, based on all the buzz he got about his speed and interceptions, that he was going to go somewhere possibly out of their reach if they passed on him in the 3rd round. So their 3rd round pick it was. Ya can't fault the GM, Staley had a guy he really wanted and Telesco did what he had to do to make sure they got him. While all of us armchair GMs see it as a massive reach or they could have gotten Travis Jones if they traded up just a few spots, Staley's just happy he got his guy.

[Guest]

J.T. Woods was not considered an undrafted free agent. If Tom Telesco is going to risk losing a player he likes the best in the third round by selecting another prospect simply because the Mel Kipers, Todd McShays, Daniel Jeremiahs, and Dane Bruglers of the Mock Draft World think Woods should go later, then he should be fired immediately.

For the record, I'm not a fan of Telesco, since this team has missed the playoffs seven of the nine years he's been general manager, but I'm not going to doubt a prospect such as J.T. Woods when I have never actually seen him play.

Right, Woods was considered a consensus late round 4 prospect, which is why the pick was poor in terms of value and why the pick represents bad drafting. I think that you are glossing over the word consensus as if we were just comparing Telesco's opinion to one other opinion.

Nobody is saying that Telesco should defer to any one pundit's view. However, if his take is hugely out of line with the consensus ranking of hundreds of analysts, that Telesco's opinion is an outlier should indicate to Telesco that 1) there is an increased likelihood that his ranking very well could be wrong and 2) the player may not go as high as he appears on Telesco's board. Of course, players should be passed over if they can be drafted later in the draft (regardless of how the GM ranks them).

Here, the better move would have been to trade up to #75 and take Travis Jones, the consensus #44 ranked player, who some had as a late round 1 prospect instead of taking the #137 ranked player. This is an easy call. Then, we could have come back in the 4th round and drafted Woods still early, but at least closer to his actual value.

But even if we were unlucky and someone else reached for Woods, who cares? Getting a round 1-2 ranked player in round 3 represents a clear steal of a much better player.

[Guest]

Unless they wanted to trade some of their late round picks (at that point, they hadn't yet) to move up in the 4th round to select JT Woods, it still wouldn't have been guaranteed he'd still be on the board. I think they had a hunch, based on all the buzz he got about his speed and interceptions, that he was going to go somewhere possibly out of their reach if they passed on him in the 3rd round. So their 3rd round pick it was. Ya can't fault the GM, Staley had a guy he really wanted and Telesco did what he had to do to make sure they got him. While all of us armchair GMs see it as a massive reach or they could have gotten Travis Jones if they traded up just a few spots, Staley's just happy he got his guy.

You can always fault the GM for not getting value with a particular draft pick and for missing small trade up opportunities that were there for the taking.

[Guest]

Winning a Super Bowl is maximizing resources, by whatever means necessary.

Scheme fit is a Staley hallmark. You must not care too much for him?

GM’s can only be judged off track records. Telesco has been poor past round one until Staley. Even then Staley gets overly need/scheme/familiar tendencies. However that should not preclude becoming successful just predictable. To your point, other GM/War Rooms surely can grasp a Staley target. He is too open and tells everybody exactly what he likes and thinks. You hear Andy Reid and you have no freaking clue he talks in riddle and generalizations.

Now. We can ride it out until our selections and take BPA or we can get cute, roll the dice and watch our guys get signed by other franchises. Your choice!

I have no issue trying to acquire players that fit our scheme, but I do have an issue when we reach for those players.

IMO, the odds were in our favor that Woods was not going before our mid 4th round pick given his late 4th round consensus valuation. Obviously, the proper time to take him was in the 4th round as that most closely matches his value.

[SuperCharged]

Chain You are a trip. You look at things in hind sight and act like you're philosophical view of the draft is correct and try and prove how you are a superior Drafter than TT. I, like many here find this comical. So keep it up! :goofylol::coolstorybro:

Right, Woods was considered a consensus late round 4 prospect, which is why the pick was poor in terms of value and why the pick represents bad drafting. I think that you are glossing over the word consensus as if we were just comparing Telesco's opinion to one other opinion.

Nobody is saying that Telesco should defer to any one pundit's view. However, if his take is hugely out of line with the consensus ranking of hundreds of analysts, that Telesco's opinion is an outlier should indicate to Telesco that 1) there is an increased likelihood that his ranking very well could be wrong and 2) the player may not go as high as he appears on Telesco's board. Of course, players should be passed over if they can be drafted later in the draft (regardless of how the GM ranks them).

Here, the better move would have been to trade up to #75 and take Travis Jones, the consensus #44 ranked player, who some had as a late round 1 prospect instead of taking the #137 ranked player. This is an easy call. Then, we could have come back in the 4th round and drafted Woods still early, but at least closer to his actual value.

But even if we were unlucky and someone else reached for Woods, who cares? Getting a round 1-2 ranked player in round 3 represents a clear steal of a much better player.

consensus by whom? You? You are talking TT. That pick had Staley written all over it. Quit nit picking, let him build his defense the way HE wants it, not you or the "consensus".wants :coffee:

[Guest]

I love how you are putting words in my mouth.

First what does EARLY mean? The draft is a way to get good players. If the player is productive that is all that matters.

Second, the earlier post was about how ridiculous your sense of value is. This entire thread has devolved into you disagreeing with TTdraft, nothing more.

I did not put words in your mouth. You used the word "early" and indicated that taking a player early did not matter.

I disagree with Telesco's draft strategy. Just like we had to give Telesco the "do not sign any more Colts players" and do not trade up" early on in his tenure and "do not draft Notre Dame players" all the way up until his recent years, we now now need a sign for Telesco that states "do not reach for players". Repeated reaches are a talent killer on a roster. We reached 5 times in this year's draft, which is not good.

[Guest]

Chain You are a trip. You look at things in hind sight and act like you're philosophical view of the draft is correct and try and prove how you are a superior Drafter than TT. I, like many here find this comical. So keep it up! :goofylol::coolstorybro:

Telesco's repeated reaches versus consensus rankings are obviously questionable. Anyone not getting that that the consensus calls Telesco's analysis into question is clueless.

What do you think the chances are that the consensus of hundreds of analysts was wrong and that Telesco was right 5 times out of 5 with respect to all of our significant reaches? I am thinking that the chance of Telesco being right on all 5 are about 0%. It is really simple--don't reach.

[blueman]

Pretty sure every year, quality starters come from every round. Yet that shouldn’t be as “consensus” should mean all starters are chosen in the correct order starting with the best starter as the first pick, the second best starter as the second pick, etc. Just shameful how every GM/“consensus” board flat out get this shit wrong every damn year. Boycott ineptitude! Boycott the NFL! Who’s with me (and chain..)?

[dmac_bolt]

Wow, impressive pick by Woods. Not only did he go up the ladder to high point the rock, but he held onto it after contact...hope so see a lot more of that with the Bolts!

The minimal film I’ve seen … the kid has really good hands. Not just that he caught it, but the way he catches belies a guy who can catch well. And just catching the gifts given (mistakes) is a big improvement over the assortment of stone handed DBs we’ve had out there at times. QBs will throw an occasional error, if you don’t make them pay, it didn’t happen.

He’s got wicked closing speed, QBs better be sure where they are going and they better gun it. Tua Rainbows will not find a pot of gold like they did in Tuscaloosa.

or he could just be a fast dude completely lost out there in the world of professional football. Beats me. I trust in Staley for now.

[dmac_bolt]

Telesco's repeated reaches versus consensus rankings are obviously questionable. Anyone not getting that that the consensus calls Telesco's analysis into question is clueless.

What do you think the chances are that the consensus of hundreds of analysts was wrong and that Telesco was right 5 times out of 5 with respect to all of our significant reaches? I am thinking that the chance of Telesco being right on all 5 are about 0%. It is really simple--don't reach.

TT’s third round record speaks for itself so i cannot vouch for 2022 Telesco. But consensus is often herd mentality too - especially in the ranking process. Hundreds of analysts doesnt always mean hundreds of independent unbiased opinions, it sometimes means hundred guys all heard the same thing. And they do all hear the same things to some to a lot of degrees.

Or you’re right and he’s a bust. Every year they are right on some and wrong on others. Telesco’s Rd3 record doesn’t sway it towards wrong yet, the kid will have to do it on the field himself.

[Maniaque 6]

If I remember well, P. Mahomes was a late first rounder consensus in 2017.
The Chiefs drafted him 10th.
Is this a reach ?