What Makes a Reach?

[Lefty2SLO]

I thought I was fairly clear on method. Establish team big boards based on averaging (somehow) of sets of public boards. I haven't figured exact methodology but in general, if 20% of boards have a 3rd rd grade on a player, 50% 4th round, 30% 5th round, the team boards should follow the same distribution.

Draft is simulated based on those big boards accounting for ordering and team needs. Then the boards are shuffled and it's run again, until you fill the whole space.

Now you're just being mean

[dmac_bolt]

I thought I was fairly clear on method. Establish team big boards based on averaging (somehow) of sets of public boards. I haven't figured exact methodology but in general, if 20% of boards have a 3rd rd grade on a player, 50% 4th round, 30% 5th round, the team boards should follow the same distribution.

Draft is simulated based on those big boards accounting for ordering and team needs. Then the boards are shuffled and it's run again, until you fill the whole space.

If you run it enough times, it will simply settle out to those values you are starting with. just use those values and skips the sim. I don’t have any better ways than accumulating all of the opinions and assessments. but we know that from 3rd round and on, the experts are wrong more than 50% of the time. So … grain of salt … we’re talking about one specific guy and if he is specifically a reach.

I don’t know if he is, but i do know nobody else does either. I see the grades 2+ rounds later. I see short very selectively edited promo tapes where the kid flies to the ball and makes plays. I see he led the NCAA in INTs. I listen to Staley and recognize he wants to be able to play 3-S formations so he can move Derwin around as a super wild card. That last part is the only reason I accept and am excited about the pick - just blind trust in Staley. Others don’t have it, thats fair. I’ll still hold my opinion, no amount of yammering here on the interwebby is pulling me off a hunch - there is no new data, just louder and louder opinion about what I already know.

[Duck of Death]

Hi y'all, 1st time poster, longtime lurker. Just wanted to add a quick point if I may:

INTERVIEWS & BACKGROUND CHECKS - Fans & pundits simply aren't privy to this most critical component of a given team's eval process. Intelligence, character & team fit can either lift or torpedo any prospect's perceived value on draft day. While some teams are more tolerant of red flags, the Chargers have historically been risk averse in these areas for some time now. And looking at the enormous damage that the Deshaun Watson fiasco has wrought, i can't say I blame them. Conversely, a common theme that seems evident (at least on the surface) is that they have been assembling players who are bright, articulate & who seem to fit well fom a team chemistry perspective.

[Bolt-O]

Hi y'all, 1st time poster, longtime lurker. Just wanted to add a quick point if I may:

INTERVIEWS & BACKGROUND CHECKS - Fans & pundits simply aren't privy to this most critical component of a given team's eval process. Intelligence, character & team fit can either lift or torpedo any prospect's perceived value on draft day. While some teams are more tolerant of red flags, the Chargers have historically been risk averse in these areas for some time now. And looking at the enormous damage that the Deshaun Watson fiasco has wrought, i can't say I blame them. Conversely, a common theme that seems evident (at least on the surface) is that they have been assembling players who are bright, articulate & who seem to fit well fom a team chemistry perspective.

Good point, and welcome out of lurkdom!

[chargeroo]

Hi y'all, 1st time poster, longtime lurker. Just wanted to add a quick point if I may:

INTERVIEWS & BACKGROUND CHECKS - Fans & pundits simply aren't privy to this most critical component of a given team's eval process. Intelligence, character & team fit can either lift or torpedo any prospect's perceived value on draft day. While some teams are more tolerant of red flags, the Chargers have historically been risk averse in these areas for some time now. And looking at the enormous damage that the Deshaun Watson fiasco has wrought, i can't say I blame them. Conversely, a common theme that seems evident (at least on the surface) is that they have been assembling players who are bright, articulate & who seem to fit well fom a team chemistry perspective.

This is a heck of a first post. Nice job - keep posting.