The Melvin Gordon Saga - Holdout Over

[maurile]

Galloway played in eight games (reporting in Week 9). That was good enough. That is Gordon's safe harbor.

[JOJAX85]

Galloway played in eight games (reporting in Week 9). That was good enough. That is Gordon's safe harbor.

I still just cannot wrap my head around that. You are going to give up damn near $3000000 and for what?? What did you gain? What did you prove??

[Panamamike]

I still just cannot wrap my head around that. You are going to give up damn near $3000000 and for what?? What did you gain? What did you prove??

I don't get it either. Use a bit (relatively speaking) of the money, buy an insurance policy that covers the guaranteed $ and play ball.

https://www.eqgroup.com/professional_athlete/

Fournette had 2 10MM policies in his sr year at LSU.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/leonard-fournettes-10m-policies-and-the-unregulated-world-of-player-protection/

[Topcat]

I still just cannot wrap my head around that. You are going to give up damn near $3000000 and for what?? What did you gain? What did you prove??

Well, it has been mentioned that MG3 may be trying to reduce to possibility of injury by not playing the first half of the season. Maybe he's concerned he won't get a good FA deal if he's damaged goods...

[maurile]

I don't think it makes monetary sense to pass up $330,000 game checks in order to avoid being injured.

There are 512 RB starts each season. How many RBs over the past 20 years have been severely injured enough in a game that it affected their future earnings? Simple ACL tears don't seem to do the trick anymore. You need really ugly injuries. Napolean McCallum was about 25 years ago, but let's count him. Robert Edwards was 20 years ago, but it wasn't during a real football game; let's count him anyway. Bo Jackson. Javhid Best. That's all I can think of who were injured in a single game. Other RBs had cumulative injuries that affected their careers -- Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, Jamaal Charles.

That's seven. Let's assume there have been many times that number and we just can't remember. Let's say there have been 50 in the last 20 years (about 10,000 RB starts).

50 / 10000 = 0.5%

So there's maybe about a 0.5% chance per game that Gordon will suffer an injury that affects his future earnings.

It makes sense to skip a game and pass up a $330,000 game check if such an injury would cost him $330,000 / 0.5% = $66 million.

That's not realistic. He wasn't going to get a $66 million contract. Sitting out therefore seems like a massive money loser, on average. Maybe he puts a very high value on time off, and that has to figure into the decision as well. But if he's strictly trying to maximize his expected income, he should be playing for $330,000 rather than sitting out (and accumulating fines).

[jamrock]

The injuries MG III has already had likely affected his earnings

[Panamamike]

Well, it has been mentioned that MG3 may be trying to reduce to possibility of injury by not playing the first half of the season. Maybe he's concerned he won't get a good FA deal if he's damaged goods...

Again...to me that is dumb AF. He would be millions ahead if he just took out an insurance policy to protect future earnings from injury. As a RB you have a limited window to make bank. A couple/few MM in fines is a not an efficient way to protect the next contract. Anyone he advising that should be smacked upside the head. There are better ways to do it IMO.

To be clear I am not calling u dumb, I am calling that thought process dumb.

[Panamamike]

The injuries MG III has already had likely affected his earnings

To a small degree yes. But he has had an offer, that he rejected, but it gives him a good base to figure out how much insurance to get. Personally I would just insure the future guaranteed portion. Ball park figure is fine.

[El_Tee]

Even $6m for this season isn't awful. And $10m a year wasn't a joke offer either.

My BEST guess for next season is he ends up getting a $9m offer, like 4 yrs, $36m with $18m guaranteed. Like MAX... prob gets a little less guaranteed if I had to bet.

[richpjr]

Since I expect nobody to trade for him and for him to eventually report and play the games needed to become a FA, that leads me to these questions: What kind of market will there be for him for next year when teams do not have to give up a draft pick to acquire him? He still may not find a team willing to pay him $13-14 million per year. I wonder if the Chargers would still be willing to pay him $10 million a year or will they just move on? I suppose the answer to the last will be based on how our current guys do.

[Panamamike]

Since I expect nobody to trade for him and for him to eventually report and play the games needed to become a FA, that leads me to these questions: What kind of market will there be for him for next year when teams do not have to give up a draft pick to acquire him? He still may not find a team willing to pay him $13-14 million per year. I wonder if the Chargers would still be willing to pay him $10 million a year or will they just move on? I suppose the answer to the last will be based on how our current guys do.

Draft is loaded with backs. Bring the nex guy in, and dont burn a first rd pick on a RB.

[Boltjolt]

Melvin will report.....when is the question. That's all I know or care about. Pretty clear he isn't getting 13+ mil from us.