Pass Blocking Is More Important Than Run Blocking

[Steve]

If your whole offensive philosophy is to "get the ball out quick" then your opponents are not going to respect your deep patterns. Hence you're going to be easier to defend. Your WR's will be checked at the LOS by CB's and their safeties will cheat up. This will effect timing patterns, close throwing windows, and bring more defenders into the box to help against the run game.

I'd rather like to be more balanced on offense and spread defenses out by getting WR's deeper. That takes OT's that can provide QB's more time AND be good run blockers.

There is nothing wrong with having the "get the ball out" as a philosophy, as long as you don't take it too far. Yes, defenses can jump the quick, short routes, if that is ALL you do. But even quick passing/west coast teams don't exclusively do that. West coast offenses just need to mix in enough other stuff, that defenses can't get rich sitting on quick routes or playing all press coverage.

We are technically playing the same offense that got props for going to more quick hitting routes when McCoy took over. It has clearly evolved, but the base plays are still the same. The biggest difference is the personnel. We keep finding and developing bigger, less sudden WR, so the quick passing element isn't always the featured part of the O. Tyrell and Mike Williams are not the most sudden guys coming off the line, so the quick slants and quick outs were not the big part of our offense. Hopefully, that is something that Mike Williams can work on.

[Steve]

I did a similar study a couple years back (before TPB membership) on the CMB. I calculated the win/loss net gain/loss for teams' records for teams that chose OT's in the 1st round. My hypothesis was that the very best OT's (both strong at run and pass blocking) would be chosen in the 1st/early 2nd rounds and would improve their teams' offenses/records. It showed that teams that chose OT's early had a net +15 game improvement in their records the next season. IIRC, the draft year I studied was the 2016 class and it's effect on the 2016 win/loss records. I think the OT's I studied were: Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, Laremy Tunsil, Taylor Decker, and Germaine Ifedi. For the record, I didn't believe that Ifedi was worth a 1st rounder. Even so... the Seahawks record in 2016 was nearly identical to their 2015 record.

I'm not sure what all of that would mean. First, I think some offenses really demand a good/great OT. If you are playing more of a Norv style, deep passing attack, where the QB needs to hold the ball a bit longer, and there is a lot of play action passing where the QB is not facing the rush. But in a quick-hitting O (like Brees has in NO), then OG and C are probably more important. They are trying to get the ball out quickly, so stopping quick pressure up the middle is a higher priority. NE too did a lot of that with Brady at QB.

The other issue, as you allude to, is how effective is the evaluation process on draft picks. Are all 1st round picks equally important to that sort of success? How about 2nd? Only top 10 picks?

Then there is just the nature of a team. Football teams tend to attack their opponent's weaknesses. So if a team has a weakness at OT one year, then maybe attacked somewhere else the next. Doesn't mean that drafting an OT isn't a good idea, but you have a lot of holes to fix.

Are you sure it was a +15 game improvement to a record to draft an OT early? That seems a bit drastic. If the improvement is collectively, then there are a lot of other things going on that contribute to that.

[wu-dai clan]

I did a similar study a couple years back (before TPB membership) on the CMB. I calculated the win/loss net gain/loss for teams' records for teams that chose OT's in the 1st round. My hypothesis was that the very best OT's (both strong at run and pass blocking) would be chosen in the 1st/early 2nd rounds and would improve their teams' offenses/records. It showed that teams that chose OT's early had a net +15 game improvement in their records the next season. IIRC, the draft year I studied was the 2016 class and it's effect on the 2016 win/loss records. I think the OT's I studied were: Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, Laremy Tunsil, Taylor Decker, and Germaine Ifedi. For the record, I didn't believe that Ifedi was worth a 1st rounder. Even so... the Seahawks record in 2016 was nearly identical to their 2015 record.

This is yet another NutStudy I consider dubious.

For starters, Conklin and Stanley have not been all that durable as pros, while Okung as a Charger has been pretty darn healthy.

Do not cherry pick facts to fit an agenda.

I called for the trading up of massive capital for Lane Johnson (how would that have worked out?)

The reality is that circumstances have not been ripe for the Chargers to draft an OT...or is someone trying to claim they were all in for trading up for Andre Dillard now ?

Gimme a break...

:coffee:

[Xenos]

If this is true, then I guess Barks is better than Tevi...

Not necessarily. What Steve stated is interesting and possibly correct. After all, we know that there seems to be a bigger correlation now with passing on first down versus running. However, I would argue that it also depends on the team ie. QB and scheme. The Rams, after all, basically used a great run blocking scheme to power their offense to get all the way to the Super Bowl. Their run blocking also opened up their aerial attack, primarily the play action. I would also argue that a great running game helps an older QB like Rivers, Brees, and Brady more than a younger gunslinger.
https://presnapreads.com/los-angeles...philip-rivers/

Drew Brees has shown signs of a failing arm late on in each of the past two seasons. But in the Saints offense his attempts can be managed as they rely on the running game. Eli Manning is washed up. Ben Roethlisberger is too and it'll likely become obvious to casual fans now that Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are gone.

Just to point out about the article I posted, I'm not sure I agree entirely with all of the premise especially about Tyrod Taylor playing more snaps to keep Rivers fresh. I think it's more important to continue having a better running game just like NO does for Brees. But the article does highlight the problem with aging QBs and arm fatigue. I do appreciate the amazing things that Rivers has done. Seeing the gifs makes me realize how special he is. Can Tom Brady do what Philip Rivers has done within the pocket?

A fresher Rivers is someone who can carry the whole offense to the Super Bowl and dissect even the most challenging of opponents. A fresher Rivers is the Chargers' best (/only) shot at winning a Super Bowl.



Few quarterbacks through NFL history have been able to rival Philip Rivers' ability to work from a condensed pocket. Rivers consistently maximizes the windows he throws into by letting his receivers' routes develop before releasing the ball. That often means making subtle movements to buy time against arriving defenders or holding the ball until the last moment before absorbing a huge hit.

Quarterbacks who don't play behind great offensive lines have to exist in a tiny overlapping window between the pass rush getting to them in the pocket and the routes downfield developing so that someone is open.

In the above gif we can see Rivers connect with Austin Ekeler out of the backfield for a touchdown in Week 1. The first key for Rivers to read here is the right-side safety rotating down into the box at the snap. This means that Rivers can't throw the seam route he looks to initially. He knows his running back will have a one-on-one in space because of this rotation, but Rivers also knows that route is being run from the backfield so it needs time to develop.

Meanwhile, the Chargers right tackle is beaten at first contact. Not only that, he's beaten past his inside shoulder, meaning the defender has a clear and short route to the quarterback. Rivers senses this and backs up to buy time before throwing the ball without his feet set.

It's a near-perfect touch pass from a quarterback moving backwards who gets hit after the ball leaves his hand. That kind of precision requires control, control that only comes with comfortable arm strength. If Rivers strains slightly to get this ball to its spot, it's more likely to float over the sideline or to a defender.



In Week 2, coincidentally on another touchdown throw, Rivers made a similar play when his left tackle was beaten off the snap. This time he throws the ball down the seam and hits Mike Williams between two defenders. Williams can only cradle the ball before he's hit from the safety who was working across the field.

To let that route develop past the underneath coverage and to hold the safety just enough to prevent him breaking on the ball, Rivers had to take a small step forward in the pocket before delivering the ball under duress.

It's a huge challenge technically but you also have to be brave enough to stand in and take that punishment without flinching. Rivers doesn't flinch. He's made a career out of living on these margins in the pocket.




Because these margins are so fine, any slight drop-off in his performance is going to have major repercussions. He doesn't have a supporting cast that can carry him, despite how talented his skill position players are.

That's what makes Rivers so tantalizing entering this season.



From the same drive in that Buffalo game, Rivers can be seen setting up the offense in the redzone by beating an aggressive blitz call from the defense. Both linebackers come up the middle and rapid rookie Tremaine Edmunds is left unblocked. Rivers recognizes the aggression and gets the ball out before hitting the top of his drop to set up the huge gain.

As a passer, arm strength is the only concern with Rivers. He does everything else at an elite level.

He's starting from a place early in the year where his arm strength is on the brink of being a problem. When he misses, it's normally an underthrow or the ball got away from him and floated because of that lack of arm strength. Later in the year, that flaw becomes more prominent and impacts throws more often. So because it's such a specific thing, the upside without that fatigue is huge.

[Formula 21]

I don't like to hear about Rivers losing arm strength. Because thats the beginning of the end.

[blueman]

I don't like to hear about Rivers losing arm strength. Because thats the beginning of the end.

He has though. It was noticeable last season on a lot of deep throws, on throws in years past he would've made, no problem.

[powderblueboy]

Love the gifs.

I've been hearing the bit about Rivers losing arm strength since 2012. A lot of those throws - good God!

[Xenos]

Love the gifs.

I've been hearing the bit about Rivers losing arm strength since 2012. A lot of those throws - good God!

He's not necessarily losing arm strength like Peyton did. It's the same as it has always been, which is to say average. He can still gun it like he always does as evidenced by those gifs. It's his arm wearing out more from fatigue if he has to throw it all the time. We need to continue improving the running game to give his arm a rest.

[Xenos]

He has though. It was noticeable last season on a lot of deep throws, on throws in years past he would've made, no problem.

Which throws are you talking about? The ones that were noticeably short like the second KC game and the first Ravens game occurred because there was pressure up the middle, which prevented him from planting his throwing foot. He's never had the strongest arm and has always relied on his footwork to throw deep. It's always hit or miss when he has to throw off his back leg.

[richpjr]

Which throws are you talking about? The ones that were noticeably short like the second KC game and the first Ravens game occurred because there was pressure up the middle, which prevented him from planting his throwing foot. He's never had the strongest arm and has always relied on his footwork to throw deep. It's always hit or miss when he has to throw off his back leg.

Nobody has the same arm strength at 37 that they do at 27, but I don't see a giant drop off yet. I agree with what is quoted above - he was getting crushed up the middle, especially as the season went on. Fix the middle and give Rivers a tiny bit of room and his arm strength will be just fine.

[Xenos]

Funny, I saw another thread about the same thing in another forum I frequent. The guy who started it isn't as nice as you Steve:

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/19563-run-game-is-largely-irrelevant/

[Boltnut]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-by-pass-blocking-efficiency