The Football Analytics Thread

Collapse
X
Collapse
First Prev Next Last
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Xenos
    Moderator
    • Feb 2019
    • 8819
    • Send PM

    #13
    Originally posted by FoutsFan View Post

    Exactly, context matters. You also have to not suppress or deny what your eyes are telling you either. If you are going against your gut and what is happening in a game just because the metrics are telling you to then you are making the wrong call.
    It's complicated though right? Remember the Titans game last year where a lot of members were upset that Lynn decided to punt it versus going for it on 4th down in the gameday thread?

    Comment

    • Formula 21
      The Future is Now
      • Jun 2013
      • 16197
      • Republic of San Diego
      • Send PM

      #14
      Yeah, but you cant run out the clock efficiently if you don't waste first downs. Analytics that.

      You cant keep the game close so you can win it in the 4th quarter if you don't waste first downs. Analytics that.
      Now, if you excuse me, I have some Charger memories to suppress.
      The Wasted Decade is done.
      Build Back Better.

      Comment

      • Xenos
        Moderator
        • Feb 2019
        • 8819
        • Send PM

        #15
        Originally posted by Formula 21 View Post
        Yeah, but you cant run out the clock efficiently if you don't waste first downs. Analytics that.

        You cant keep the game close so you can win it in the 4th quarter if you don't waste first downs. Analytics that.
        Well then the bigger question is why would you want to keep the game close or waste first downs in the first place?

        Comment

        • Formula 21
          The Future is Now
          • Jun 2013
          • 16197
          • Republic of San Diego
          • Send PM

          #16
          Originally posted by Xenos View Post

          Well then the bigger question is why would you want to keep the game close or waste first downs in the first place?
          Agreed. But that's what the Bolts do.
          Now, if you excuse me, I have some Charger memories to suppress.
          The Wasted Decade is done.
          Build Back Better.

          Comment

          • sonorajim
            Registered Charger Fan
            • Jan 2019
            • 5186
            • Send PM

            #17
            Originally posted by Formula 21 View Post
            Yeah, but you cant run out the clock efficiently if you don't waste first downs. Analytics that.

            You cant keep the game close so you can win it in the 4th quarter if you don't waste first downs. Analytics that.
            Define "waste". Don't achieve a TD or at least another 1st? Don't get at least XX yards? Don't throw a pass? Don't make a play?

            Running out the clock efficiently requires maintaining offensive possession. You have to move the chains.
            Doing that we have to take a chance on scoring, which ain't a bad thing. Not likely that Lynn will tell his guys to get no more than X yards. If we score the game goes to special teams, which should be better than avg, then D, which may be NFL best. Then the O gets another shot at controlling the ball.

            Comment

            • Xenos
              Moderator
              • Feb 2019
              • 8819
              • Send PM

              #18
              Originally posted by Formula 21 View Post

              Agreed. But that's what the Bolts do.
              But give Lynn credit for adapting and utilizing analytics better this past season.
              Sharp pointed to the Chargers as a team that did not pass enough on first down and did not call efficient plays on early downs last year. This season, Philip Rivers's yards per attempt average on first down has climbed from 8.1 to 9.7; the 11-3 Chargers are enjoying their best season in years.
              Besides that little info, we also see Lynn use analytics for things like London trip and going for two points during the KC game. So far so good. Just need to continue to adapt and evolve.

              Comment

              • Formula 21
                The Future is Now
                • Jun 2013
                • 16197
                • Republic of San Diego
                • Send PM

                #19
                IMO, the Bolts goal should be to drop 50 points on every team they play. Forget this run more than 50 % of the time. Forget this run the clock out before every possession. Just run the other team off the field. And the Bolts have the O to do it.
                Now, if you excuse me, I have some Charger memories to suppress.
                The Wasted Decade is done.
                Build Back Better.

                Comment

                • Xenos
                  Moderator
                  • Feb 2019
                  • 8819
                  • Send PM

                  #20
                  Originally posted by Formula 21 View Post
                  IMO, the Bolts goal should be to drop 50 points on every team they play. Forget this run more than 50 % of the time. Forget this run the clock out before every possession. Just run the other team off the field. And the Bolts have the O to do it.
                  But do they have the OL? Also, passing is great when you have a younger QB. Rivers, unfortunately, is starting to show arm fatigue. You don't need to be balanced ie. 50% of both. But you need to find ways to keep Rivers arm fresh for the end of the season much like the Saints did with Brees the last couple of years.

                  Comment

                  • Xenos
                    Moderator
                    • Feb 2019
                    • 8819
                    • Send PM

                    #21
                    Old article from 2017 but still interesting regarding how teams use analytics:
                    How number crunching has worked its way into NFL decision making at all levels. And how, with some of football’s greatest minds, it has always been that way, even if they didn’t know it

                    The NFL is getting closer. The MMQB spent a month discussing analytics with more than 40 team officials from across the league--coaches, executives, scouts and analytics people--and there are some hard conclusions that can be made on where the league is.

                    1. Most teams don't shy away from analytics. In fact, more than one official was offended by the notion that their team would be called "old school". When it comes to player acquisition (which is what Moneyball was based on), the average NFL team is using the data. It's just that it is being used to generate boundaries rather than drive decisions. Teams want to know when they're making exceptions on one player, and they want to know what they might be missing on another they may have otherwise dismissed.

                    2. On the coaching side, analytics are generally used to make staffs more efficient. There may only be time for quality-control coaches to break down four or five of an opponent's games in the week they have leading into a particular game. And that, in the past, would lead to guesswork on tendencies and strengths and weaknesses. The data allows the quality-control guys, and staffs, to crosscheck against larger sample sizes.

                    3. The limits in those two areas are the number of games (16) and the variance in players' assignments and situations that affect plays. That makes it more difficult to collect the amount of data necessary to make hard decisions.

                    4. Conversely, the value of the data in those areas is proven in that nearly the entire NFL has subscribed to Stats LLC and/or Pro Football Focus, and some rely on smaller services, like Pro Scout Inc., which is run by 64-year-old former Utah coach Mike Giddings.

                    5. There aren't sure marks of analytics-friendly operations on game days (as there is in basketball, with teams that go for the "two-for-one" possession at the end of the quarter or half). But on the personnel side, you can see it in asset management, with teams that trade down in the draft to pad their margin for error, and use cap space creatively.

                    6. There is one strong consensus league-wide: Analytics data related to injury prevention, which straddles sports science and comes through player tracking, is useful and will only get better. The NFL is just scratching the surface with this technology, and the floodgates will truly open only when the league makes available all the Zebra data it's been collecting. Another step here that's expected to come eventually is in profiling the minds of players.

                    7. The Walsh/Belichick robot is not on the market. Yet.

                    Comment

                    • Panamamike
                      Registered Charger Fan
                      • Jun 2013
                      • 4141
                      • Send PM

                      #22
                      Originally posted by Xenos View Post

                      But do they have the OL? Also, passing is great when you have a younger QB. Rivers, unfortunately, is starting to show arm fatigue. You don't need to be balanced ie. 50% of both. But you need to find ways to keep Rivers arm fresh for the end of the season much like the Saints did with Brees the last couple of years.
                      I call the arm fatigue line BS. They don't gun it every throw and they don't put that many miles on the arm all season as practice time is way less than years gone by. It's not like 40 throws in 3 hours is all that taxing. Less hit is always better the older one gets, and QBs are protected by the rules there as well. Rivers has always needed to step up into his throws and the missed assignments up front caused some under thrown balls as there was a jailbreak up front. Jones for KC especially destroyed our Oline. I hope he has a long holdout.

                      Comment

                      • Steve
                        Administrator
                        • Jun 2013
                        • 6839
                        • South Carolina
                        • Meteorologist
                        • Send PM

                        #23
                        Originally posted by Xenos View Post

                        But give Lynn credit for adapting and utilizing analytics better this past season.


                        Besides that little info, we also see Lynn use analytics for things like London trip and going for two points during the KC game. So far so good. Just need to continue to adapt and evolve.
                        Except that in the case of KC, I am not sure he is using analytics. I think he did what the analytics guys would do, but he was doing it for his reasons. He felt like we had the momentum, and he just felt like it was the thing to do, or at least that is how he was telling it after the game.

                        A big part of what the Oakland A's were doing with Moneyball was getting away from conventional wisdom in baseball, and getting into being thoughtful about what they did. if that is the case of what the Chargers are going, then I think we are probably going down that line of thinking. However, I don't think they necessarily have an army of statisticians running around crunching numbers behind their decisions.

                        Comment

                        • Steve
                          Administrator
                          • Jun 2013
                          • 6839
                          • South Carolina
                          • Meteorologist
                          • Send PM

                          #24
                          Originally posted by sonorajim View Post

                          Define "waste". Don't achieve a TD or at least another 1st? Don't get at least XX yards? Don't throw a pass? Don't make a play?

                          Running out the clock efficiently requires maintaining offensive possession. You have to move the chains.
                          Doing that we have to take a chance on scoring, which ain't a bad thing. Not likely that Lynn will tell his guys to get no more than X yards. If we score the game goes to special teams, which should be better than avg, then D, which may be NFL best. Then the O gets another shot at controlling the ball.
                          "Waste" and "efficiency" have very specific definitions. Typically, efficiency is referred to as being maximizing the yardage gained on every play. IN general, that is probably true.

                          But if you have a 28 point lead in the middle of the 4th quarter, running the ball 3.4 yards on every play is a legitimate definition of efficiency. JUst get 1st downs and run the clock out.

                          Comment

                          Working...
                          X
                          😀
                          😂
                          🥰
                          😘
                          🤢
                          😎
                          😞
                          😡
                          👍
                          👎