Originally posted by chaincrusher
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Sorry, but I cannot get on board with what I perceive as some pretty ridiculous overreactions to Burrow in this thread tonight. IMO, some of you guys simply are not projecting Burrow accurately at the next level.
Thinking that Burrow is going to be the next Elway, or even Andrew Luck, names mentioned in this thread tonight, to me seems like some pretty questionable takes. Elway was supremely physcially gifted, blessed with an absolute cannon of an arm and the ability to run. Luck also had a strong arm and was an above average runner in terms of both strength and speed for a QB. Equally questionable is the notion that somehow it would be Burrow making the Saints or Patriots contenders forever because of what Burrow brings to the table versus what Payton or Belichick, two of the best head coaches in NFL history, bring to the table.
Burrow may turn out to be a fine NFL player, but he is not going to be able to constantly float balls to wide open receivers like he has for much of this season with LSU. The windows will be much tighter and his lack of arm strength, which is fairly obvious, is going to be exposed at least to some degree. Coaches can scheme against a QB's weaknesses as the Titans just did against Lamar Jackson. And worse yet, Burrow does not exactly appear to have a quick release to offset his less than great arm strength (see Rivers, Philip).
I like Burrow's ability to work through progressions and he has some ability to extend plays, so that may help him to offset his lack of arm strength, but in my view, not only is Burrow not the greatest thing since sliced bread, he presents as a pretty substantial bust potential at the next level in terms of carrying the expected value of a #1 overall pick. That does not mean that he will not be able to compete in the NFL, just that there is a very real possibility that his NFL career will be nothing at all like what some of you seem to think it is going to be. He may end up being one of those players that is a great college QB, but not a great NFL QB. And that is just way too much risk for a player to be worthy of the #1 overall pick.
And to be clear, I am not talking about the kind of risk that every NFL draft pick carries. In my view, a player being discussed as a top 5 and potential #1 overall pick needs to be an elite player that is a virtual lock to be a great player at the NFL level. No matter how anyone tries to spin it, the fact that Burrow can't spin it, makes him a greater risk than what would be ideal for an early first round pick.
Not only would I not trade 3 first round picks (or more) for Burrow, I would not select Burrow if I had the first pick overall and I would not draft him at #6 overall either. That said, I can see how a desperate Bengals team would be willing to roll the dice and hope that Burrow could overcome his limitations, especially as Dalton appears to have fallen out of favor with their current coaches.
Still, the reality is that Dwayne Haskins beat out Joe Burrow at Ohio State, which is why Burrow had to transfer to LSU in the first place. And if Washington took Burrow with the #2 overall pick in this year's draft (which is unlikely), Haskins would likely beat Burrow out all over again.
Also, my expectation is that Lawrence, if given an equal team with which to compete (which he clearly did not have tonight), is and always will be better than Burrow.
In terms of the 2020 draft, I do not want the Chargers to take a QB at all because none of them are as good as Rivers still is. However, if the Chargers do take a QB with the #6 overall pick, I would rather have Herbert than either Burrow or Tagovailoa, though I do not love any of the three as safe franchise QB prospects.
Thinking that Burrow is going to be the next Elway, or even Andrew Luck, names mentioned in this thread tonight, to me seems like some pretty questionable takes. Elway was supremely physcially gifted, blessed with an absolute cannon of an arm and the ability to run. Luck also had a strong arm and was an above average runner in terms of both strength and speed for a QB. Equally questionable is the notion that somehow it would be Burrow making the Saints or Patriots contenders forever because of what Burrow brings to the table versus what Payton or Belichick, two of the best head coaches in NFL history, bring to the table.
Burrow may turn out to be a fine NFL player, but he is not going to be able to constantly float balls to wide open receivers like he has for much of this season with LSU. The windows will be much tighter and his lack of arm strength, which is fairly obvious, is going to be exposed at least to some degree. Coaches can scheme against a QB's weaknesses as the Titans just did against Lamar Jackson. And worse yet, Burrow does not exactly appear to have a quick release to offset his less than great arm strength (see Rivers, Philip).
I like Burrow's ability to work through progressions and he has some ability to extend plays, so that may help him to offset his lack of arm strength, but in my view, not only is Burrow not the greatest thing since sliced bread, he presents as a pretty substantial bust potential at the next level in terms of carrying the expected value of a #1 overall pick. That does not mean that he will not be able to compete in the NFL, just that there is a very real possibility that his NFL career will be nothing at all like what some of you seem to think it is going to be. He may end up being one of those players that is a great college QB, but not a great NFL QB. And that is just way too much risk for a player to be worthy of the #1 overall pick.
And to be clear, I am not talking about the kind of risk that every NFL draft pick carries. In my view, a player being discussed as a top 5 and potential #1 overall pick needs to be an elite player that is a virtual lock to be a great player at the NFL level. No matter how anyone tries to spin it, the fact that Burrow can't spin it, makes him a greater risk than what would be ideal for an early first round pick.
Not only would I not trade 3 first round picks (or more) for Burrow, I would not select Burrow if I had the first pick overall and I would not draft him at #6 overall either. That said, I can see how a desperate Bengals team would be willing to roll the dice and hope that Burrow could overcome his limitations, especially as Dalton appears to have fallen out of favor with their current coaches.
Still, the reality is that Dwayne Haskins beat out Joe Burrow at Ohio State, which is why Burrow had to transfer to LSU in the first place. And if Washington took Burrow with the #2 overall pick in this year's draft (which is unlikely), Haskins would likely beat Burrow out all over again.
Also, my expectation is that Lawrence, if given an equal team with which to compete (which he clearly did not have tonight), is and always will be better than Burrow.
In terms of the 2020 draft, I do not want the Chargers to take a QB at all because none of them are as good as Rivers still is. However, if the Chargers do take a QB with the #6 overall pick, I would rather have Herbert than either Burrow or Tagovailoa, though I do not love any of the three as safe franchise QB prospects.
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