The Myth of Abandoning the Run While Losing

[PMR9FAN]

It takes about 6:00 minutes to score with a balanced run/pass attack. The time can be reduced to 4:00 minutes going up-tempo, still with a balanced attack.

So if a team is down by 21 points at any point in the first half, and even early or in the middle of the 3rd quarter, there is no reason to stop running the ball. It's simple math. The defense is going to have to get stops obviously to mount a comeback, so it's not so much how long it takes the offense to score as it is whether they do score.

Play-callers across the league for decades have for some reason thought differently. Maybe they weren't so good at math, I don't know. A classic example was when the Panthers were down by 17 points in the 1st quarter against the Cardinals in the divisional round of the 2008 season playoffs. The Panthers had a great running game in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, yet turned the game over to Jake Delhomme who was, predictably but unnecessarily, throwing the ball constantly.

The Chargers of course have been guilty of insisting they have to throw the ball when down, even early. Rivers as much said so in his press conference yesterday and the play-calling proves it. The question is though, is it because they have bought into the longstanding myth or, perhaps more likely, they know they can't run the ball effectively?

[La Costa Boy]

It takes about 6:00 minutes to score with a balanced run/pass attack. The time can be reduced to 4:00 minutes going up-tempo, still with a balanced attack.

So if a team is down by 21 points at any point in the first half, and even early or in the middle of the 3rd quarter, there is no reason to stop running the ball. It's simple math. The defense is going to have to get stops obviously to mount a comeback, so it's not so much how long it takes the offense to score as it is whether they do score.

Play-callers across the league for decades have for some reason thought differently. Maybe they weren't so good at math, I don't know. A classic example was when the Panthers were down by 17 points in the 1st quarter against the Cardinals in the divisional round of the 2008 season playoffs. The Panthers had a great running game in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, yet turned the game over to Jake Delhomme who was, predictably but unnecessarily, throwing the ball constantly.

The Chargers of course have been guilty of insisting they have to throw the ball when down, even early. Rivers as much said so in his press conference yesterday and the play-calling proves it. The question is though, is it because they have bought into the longstanding myth or, perhaps more likely, they know they can't run the ball effectively?

Earlier in the season, Austin and the rest were doing just fine without Gordon. It seems that since Gordo came back that we can't run to 7-11 for a slurpee.

[DontEverGiveUp]

Are we abandoning the run because we are losing, or because we can't run the ball? Seems like we try to run, then get stuck in 3rd and long, where the defense can focus on the pass while blowing up our horrible line with 3-4 rushers.

As someone already pointed out, our running game has been terrible ever since MG came back. He is cancer on this team.

[PMR9FAN]

Earlier in the season, Austin and the rest were doing just fine without Gordon. It seems that since Gordo came back that we can't run to 7-11 for a slurpee.

Good one ...

Austin was in a rhythm, that's for sure.

[JOJAX85]

Melvin Gordon certainly isn't proving on his prove it deal.

[Charge!]

Are we abandoning the run because we are losing, or because we can't run the ball? Seems like we try to run, then get stuck in 3rd and long, where the defense can focus on the pass while blowing up our horrible line with 3-4 rushers.

As someone already pointed out, our running game has been terrible ever since MG came back. He is cancer on this team.

good points......

we also have to run plays that take advantage of the personnel we have....... this team is not built to be a power running team, no matter how much Lynn craves that. This team is built to be a team that passes the ball 2 out of 3 plays and sprinkles in a run about 1 out of 3 times.....just to keep defenses honest....I also consider short passes and screens as extended running plays.. look at chiefs great offense...or patriots...... if we reach a point where we are up by 30 plus points then we can switch to running 2 of 3 times.....

The problem wirth conservative coaches who want to run the ball on 1st and 2nd down, is even at a decent 4 yards per carry, you still are in a forced passing down..... you are not likely to run for 3 yards on third and 2 or 3..... when defense has stacked the box.... and usually if the first down run gets 5 or more the defense tightens up on 2nd down and you get little or no gain.... even a loss.... leaving offense at 3rd and long.....

Great QB's usually complete around 2 of 3 passes and definitely 50+ percent........ which means if you give your QB only one chance to pass for the first down, he must be perfect if you are running on 2 of the 3 downs..... only one attempt also makes art easier for defense to rush passer and for defense to make a play or cause a penalty.....

If even the average QB has 2 shots at it there is a very high chance that one of the 2 passes will get the first down.....and 2 chances to draw a defensive penalty..... running plays do not draw very many penalties from defense......

and incomplete passes stop the ball lengthening game and give you more opportunities to come from behind.... running the ball uses up time much much faster than passing the ball....... simple math......

Look at the great 49ers dynasty...... at the end of game their offense appears to be balanced overall, but they were primarily a passing team while they built up huge leads on teams then later in second half they ran ball to run out the clock and close the games out........ so overall stats are deceptive....... same is true of patriots dynasty........

I would like to see chargers be more like 49ers dynasty and patriot dynasty than becoming the slow, boring losing power running team that Lynn wants the chargers to be..... we need to remember that all great playoff teams can stop the run cold and force you to beat them via the pass...... teams that cannot stop the run usually lose ........to almost anyone.....

[Caslon]

One critique on Gordon's return is that he's stopping his feet instead of hitting the hole. What hole? No wonder he has to stop and try going somewhere else!

[DontEverGiveUp]

One critique on Gordon's return is that he's stopping his feet instead of hitting the hole. What hole? No wonder he has to stop and try going somewhere else!

I completely get where you're coming from, and our o-line is clearly trash. However, late last season and early this season, we watched JJ hitting those inside holes quickly and decisively. Is that all JJ? Does the line just block better for him for some reason? Either way, we need to see those positive downhill runs again.

[Topcat]

It takes about 6:00 minutes to score with a balanced run/pass attack. The time can be reduced to 4:00 minutes going up-tempo, still with a balanced attack.

So if a team is down by 21 points at any point in the first half, and even early or in the middle of the 3rd quarter, there is no reason to stop running the ball. It's simple math. The defense is going to have to get stops obviously to mount a comeback, so it's not so much how long it takes the offense to score as it is whether they do score.

Play-callers across the league for decades have for some reason thought differently. Maybe they weren't so good at math, I don't know. A classic example was when the Panthers were down by 17 points in the 1st quarter against the Cardinals in the divisional round of the 2008 season playoffs. The Panthers had a great running game in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, yet turned the game over to Jake Delhomme who was, predictably but unnecessarily, throwing the ball constantly.

The Chargers of course have been guilty of insisting they have to throw the ball when down, even early. Rivers as much said so in his press conference yesterday and the play-calling proves it. The question is though, is it because they have bought into the longstanding myth or, perhaps more likely, they know they can't run the ball effectively?

Your theory holds water if there is still plenty of time left. However, if we're down to 2-3 minutes left, and the team is behind by, say 4-6 points, and we need a TD to win, then passing still makes the most sense. If it's complete, great, hopefully receiver goes out of bounds to stop the clock. If it's incomplete, it stops the clock. A couple of run plays eat up most of the clock. It's simple math...

[FoutsFan]

I completely get where you're coming from, and our o-line is clearly trash. However, late last season and early this season, we watched JJ hitting those inside holes quickly and decisively. Is that all JJ? Does the line just block better for him for some reason? Either way, we need to see those positive downhill runs again.

Gordon is not even in the same league as JJ as far as field vision. JJ just has a better overall feel for running as well, the only thing that Gordon has over JJ is his flat out top speed and a bit of a size advantage. JJ is clearly the better runner though.

[ChargingBolts]

Your theory holds water if there is still plenty of time left. However, if we're down to 2-3 minutes left, and the team is behind by, say 4-6 points, and we need a TD to win, then passing still makes the most sense. If it's complete, great, hopefully receiver goes out of bounds to stop the clock. If it's incomplete, it stops the clock. A couple of run plays eat up most of the clock. It's simple math...

Question to those who may know the answer ... I always wondered why at towards the end of the game with time running out and wanting to save seconds/minutes, instead of throwing to the sidelines throw wherever you want and if the receiver catches it before going down whip it and lateral it out of bounds "fumbling" losing a yard which would stop the clock correct? ... would this be legal?

[Caslon]

Question to those who may know the answer ... I always wondered why at towards the end of the game with time running out and wanting to save seconds/minutes, instead of throwing to the sidelines ?

I agree and have seen the same thing. You see every other team doing it, but not the Chargers, for some reason. Hehe, they'd rather pass over the middle and hustle up to the line or burn a timeout.