Originally posted by chaincrusher
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POLL: Should The Bolts Trade Up For Tua?
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“Less is more? NO NO NO - MORE is MORE!”
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Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post
Again, you are confusing two separate issues--1) my view of Lawrence and 2) my view of Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Simmons.
Right now, in order not to confuse the issue, I will limit my statement to just the second issue, which is actually pretty simple.
The #6 overall pick is an early pick that should produce a virtually guaranteed blue chip star player (like Rivers, Tomlinson, or Bosa).
I do not consider any of this year's QBs to be such a player.
Burrow lacks a track record of multiple years of success and could only succeed in just the right system with a team far superior to its opponents, somethiing not likely to be repeated at the NFL level. He also could not beat out Haskins (who has struggled so far in the NFL) at Ohio State and lacks arm strength. Going into this season, draft pundits had Burrow rated as a 4th or 5th round QB. This simply is not the profile of a top 6 NFL draft pick. It just isn't regardless of how much hype he is getting.
Tua is small and injury prone and our OL has been below average to terrible for a dozen seasons in a row. Nothing terrible could ever happen with that combination. Seriously, Tua, even though he does have some arm talent, is a hard pass at #6, much less with respect to a potential trade up scenario.
I actualy like Herbert, who you are suggesting we will be taking at #6 overall. I even like him as a first round player, but there are probably a good 15-20 players that I would take before taking him. I think Herbert has the potential to be a great NFL QB, but he also carries way more risk than a player like Simmons, who is very likely to succeed at the NFL level.
I could not disagree more with your assertion that drafting Burrow is no different than drafting Simmons. Simmons is a virtual lock to succeed at the NFL level. Burrow is not.
Simmons is not a lock and even sounds crazy to say that. Even if he succeeds, he my not be what most thought. He very well could be an All Pro which is exactly what many think he will be but we seen too many that were "locks" just never reach their potential and even flat out bust. Ever heard of Tony Mandarich?
Before Rivers senior season, and even during it, he was rated a 4th rounder. He crept up and very late he was rated a first, so that means nothing.
Aaron Rodgers had one good season.
You keep repeating the same things over and over.
The Haskins thing means nothing. Brady shared time with Drew Henson...who was a bust.
Mark Brunell shared time with Joe Hobert...who was a bust.
There are plenty that think Burrow will be a very good NFL QB. I think the kid has the head to be but we shall see and I'd take the gamble on him.
That was my point.
It's not my idea to take Herbert at #6. It's what I think Telesco will do and why I have him there in my mock.
The rest is an idea of what I'd like to see happen.Last edited by Boltjolt; 03-29-2020, 10:35 PM.
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Originally posted by powderblueboy View Post
Reminds me of the people who said wait for next years incredible qb crop: Rosen/Arnold/Allen.
Next years qb crop is always more appealing.
The thing that I think some are missing in the discussion is that my view of Lawrence has nothing to do with my view of the QBs in this year's draft. I would be the first to admit that most pundits have Burrow and Tua as top 6 prospects. I disagree with them. In fact, I do not even have either QB as the top QB in this year's draft class. I like Herbert's potential over theirs and like Herbert as a prospect--just not at #6 overall. I think Herbert is a second half of the first round player.
I prefer to get value for draft picks, so I do not favor reaching for players at any position, even QB. Taking a QB at #6 this year would be a reach, so I do not favor that or trading up, which makes the reach even more costly.
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Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post
Again, you are confusing two separate issues--1) my view of Lawrence and 2) my view of Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Simmons.
Right now, in order not to confuse the issue, I will limit my statement to just the second issue, which is actually pretty simple.
The #6 overall pick is an early pick that should produce a virtually guaranteed blue chip star player (like Rivers, Tomlinson, or Bosa).
I do not consider any of this year's QBs to be such a player.
Burrow lacks a track record of multiple years of success and could only succeed in just the right system with a team far superior to its opponents, somethiing not likely to be repeated at the NFL level. He also could not beat out Haskins (who has struggled so far in the NFL) at Ohio State and lacks arm strength. Going into this season, draft pundits had Burrow rated as a 4th or 5th round QB. This simply is not the profile of a top 6 NFL draft pick. It just isn't regardless of how much hype he is getting.
Tua is small and injury prone and our OL has been below average to terrible for a dozen seasons in a row. Nothing terrible could ever happen with that combination. Seriously, Tua, even though he does have some arm talent, is a hard pass at #6, much less with respect to a potential trade up scenario.
I actualy like Herbert, who you are suggesting we will be taking at #6 overall. I even like him as a first round player, but there are probably a good 15-20 players that I would take before taking him. I think Herbert has the potential to be a great NFL QB, but he also carries way more risk than a player like Simmons, who is very likely to succeed at the NFL level.
I could not disagree more with your assertion that drafting Burrow is no different than drafting Simmons. Simmons is a virtual lock to succeed at the NFL level. Burrow is not.
My 2021 Adopt-A-Bolt List
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Originally posted by Boltjolt View Post
This class is better than last years class imo. Last years was very weak. This years top end QBs have more question marks that it didnt have before the season but then you have better prospects in the second and third rounds than last years.
Even the three you posted above werent sure fire prospects. Allen was inaccurate, Darnold wasnt all that imo and Rosen had his critics, but they were considered top QB prospects.
Burrow was better than all three last season. Some want to call it the system, but a smart OC where ever he lands will install what works for him. Someone like Gruden wont. He has his complicated system and you are going to run it, come hell or high water.
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Originally posted by powderblueboy View Post
After the Rose bowl against Penn State, Darnold was a God; Rosen & Allen weren't far behind. Mahomes was a nobody.
Happens every year.
I didn't like Gabbart, JaMarcus, Boller, ......wait, did you say Mahomes was a nobody?
You must not pay a lot of attention to the draft.,..though some were calling him a second rounder. If he was a second rounder, Love is a 7th.
Rosen was up there with Darnald but Allen? He was overhyped. Love is also overhyped....because they have strong arms.
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Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post
Actually, that is not where I am at all. It is really very simple. For the past two seasons, I have been of the view that Lawrence is a once in a generation type prospect. Last year, this year, next year--it makes no difference. Once in a generation type prospects are viewed as head and shoulders above other QB prospects across many seasons. That is what Lawrence is.
The thing that I think some are missing in the discussion is that my view of Lawrence has nothing to do with my view of the QBs in this year's draft. I would be the first to admit that most pundits have Burrow and Tua as top 6 prospects. I disagree with them. In fact, I do not even have either QB as the top QB in this year's draft class. I like Herbert's potential over theirs and like Herbert as a prospect--just not at #6 overall. I think Herbert is a second half of the first round player.
I prefer to get value for draft picks, so I do not favor reaching for players at any position, even QB. Taking a QB at #6 this year would be a reach, so I do not favor that or trading up, which makes the reach even more costly.
Hebert has a strong arm but has zero anticipation or touch..... every pass has to be a bullet with a clean line of sight..... he does not have the touch or accuracy to drop balls in between defenders......
Hebert is just like many many strong armed inaccurate college QBs who have been major failures in NFL....... Hebert only looks good if you just look at highlight films and not complete games..... Hebert also takes way too long to make decisions which win college is not a big deal but in pros will kill him...... the idea of rating Hebert above Burrow and Tua is absurd...... but I would love it if CIN felt like you do and took Herbert at pick 1...... lol
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Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post
Again, you are confusing two separate issues--1) my view of Lawrence and 2) my view of Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Simmons.
Right now, in order not to confuse the issue, I will limit my statement to just the second issue, which is actually pretty simple.
The #6 overall pick is an early pick that should produce a virtually guaranteed blue chip star player (like Rivers, Tomlinson, or Bosa).
I do not consider any of this year's QBs to be such a player.
Burrow lacks a track record of multiple years of success and could only succeed in just the right system with a team far superior to its opponents, somethiing not likely to be repeated at the NFL level. He also could not beat out Haskins (who has struggled so far in the NFL) at Ohio State and lacks arm strength. Going into this season, draft pundits had Burrow rated as a 4th or 5th round QB. This simply is not the profile of a top 6 NFL draft pick. It just isn't regardless of how much hype he is getting.
Tua is small and injury prone and our OL has been below average to terrible for a dozen seasons in a row. Nothing terrible could ever happen with that combination. Seriously, Tua, even though he does have some arm talent, is a hard pass at #6, much less with respect to a potential trade up scenario.
I actualy like Herbert, who you are suggesting we will be taking at #6 overall. I even like him as a first round player, but there are probably a good 15-20 players that I would take before taking him. I think Herbert has the potential to be a great NFL QB, but he also carries way more risk than a player like Simmons, who is very likely to succeed at the NFL level.
I could not disagree more with your assertion that drafting Burrow is no different than drafting Simmons. Simmons is a virtual lock to succeed at the NFL level. Burrow is not.
Majority of high QB's are busts, it just always happens, Jamarcus, Trubisky, I can go on and on.
You are gambling like roulette with these guys. Whereas a Simmons 9 out of 10 times is not a bust.
How would we have felt drafting Trubisky instead of Bosa or Derwin, YIKES!
Just because we need a QB doesn't mean the draft is the answer unless you have the #1 pick and a Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning is available, those are the 2 highest touted can't misses out there the past 20 years and they were correct, most others were busts. I'm only sold on the next Manning son coming out in a few years that will be the next Manning or Luck.
Why waste a draft pick on a coin toss for a unproven NFL QB when there are proven NFL QB's in Free Agency?
The way the Az Cards have done with Kurt Warner, Carson Palmer, tried hard to get Kirk Cousins, get a sure thing instead of an unsure thing, take Best Player Available and that is Simmons, Young, or one of the highly touted OT's that can be dominate on our team for the next 5-10 years because if we draft Herbert and he's a Rosen bust we are screwed for a couple of years like when we drafted Ryan Leaf. If we trade up for "can't miss" Tua and he flops then we aren't screwed for a couple of years we're screwed for several years.
Not worth praying, hoping, wishing with our fingers crossed that the QB that we'd draft won't be one of the dozens and dozens of flopped QB's the NFL has seen the past several years.
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Originally posted by ChargingBolts View Post
This is how I feel.
Majority of high QB's are busts, it just always happens, Jamarcus, Trubisky, I can go on and on.
You are gambling like roulette with these guys. Whereas a Simmons 9 out of 10 times is not a bust.
How would we have felt drafting Trubisky instead of Bosa or Derwin, YIKES!
Just because we need a QB doesn't mean the draft is the answer unless you have the #1 pick and a Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning is available, those are the 2 highest touted can't misses out there the past 20 years and they were correct, most others were busts. I'm only sold on the next Manning son coming out in a few years that will be the next Manning or Luck.
Why waste a draft pick on a coin toss for a unproven NFL QB when there are proven NFL QB's in Free Agency?
The way the Az Cards have done with Kurt Warner, Carson Palmer, tried hard to get Kirk Cousins, get a sure thing instead of an unsure thing, take Best Player Available and that is Simmons, Young, or one of the highly touted OT's that can be dominate on our team for the next 5-10 years because if we draft Herbert and he's a Rosen bust we are screwed for a couple of years like when we drafted Ryan Leaf. If we trade up for "can't miss" Tua and he flops then we aren't screwed for a couple of years we're screwed for several years.
Not worth praying, hoping, wishing with our fingers crossed that the QB that we'd draft won't be one of the dozens and dozens of flopped QB's the NFL has seen the past several years.
My 2021 Adopt-A-Bolt List
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Nasir
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Originally posted by like54ninjas View Post
It is a crapshoot for sure. I’ve posted the list of every QB drafted in a few threads. There are very few solid QBs to be found in any round.
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Originally posted by Charge! View Post
Sorry.......but...... Lawrence is a great RUNNING QB but he is nothing special as a passer. He has a cannon for an arm but very inconsistent accuracy...... he is no where even close to Burrow or Tua as a passer...... Lawrence and Hebert are closer in talent though Lawrence is a much tougher, more physical runner...... Lawrence is clearly not a once in a generation QB like Burrow is..... he sucked as a passer in both playoff games....... and Burrow dominated...... Burrow had the greatest season by far in NCAA history and did it against the toughest defenses in college football.... many QB's have racked up stats against bad teams....... a generational great QB would have shown up for the championdship game..... LSU kept him from running and forced him to try and beat them with the pass...... but he could not....... cause he is not a great passer...... Clemson has a great team but they got destroyed by Burrow......
Hebert has a strong arm but has zero anticipation or touch..... every pass has to be a bullet with a clean line of sight..... he does not have the touch or accuracy to drop balls in between defenders......
Hebert is just like many many strong armed inaccurate college QBs who have been major failures in NFL....... Hebert only looks good if you just look at highlight films and not complete games..... Hebert also takes way too long to make decisions which win college is not a big deal but in pros will kill him...... the idea of rating Hebert above Burrow and Tua is absurd...... but I would love it if CIN felt like you do and took Herbert at pick 1...... lol
Meanwhile, it was not a matter of splitting time with other QBs for Burrow at Ohio State, a poor comparison another poster tried to make to mitigate the obvious significance of Burrow's demonstrated shortcomings. He simply was not going to play at all because he was not good enough to beat out Haskins and we have seen how Haskins has fared at the NFL level so far. And, as if that were not enough, the same Burrow could not get it done in 2018 either at LSU, his redshirt junior season (two years further along than Lawrence's 2019 season). The only time he got it done was when his team was beyond loaded with a team talent advantage that he will never see in the NFL. That is, he is a nice little game manager.
Basically, then, Burrow's 2019 season can be taken with a grain of salt. If you are looking for something that predicts his success at the NFL level, his 2019 season is a gigantic red herring. In fact, I do not think that Burrow is even the best player on his own LSU offensive unit. I would rather have Justin Jefferson than Burrow.
Seriously, if Lawrence were draft eligible, there is not a GM on this planet that would not take him over Burrow right now. But Burrow does not need to feel bad about that truth as there is not a GM that would not have taken Lawrence over Murray last year and not a GM that will not take Lawrence #1 overall next year. Lawrence is just a dominant and clear lock as the #1 overall pick whenever he enters the draft, more so than Luck or Peyton Manning were.
I would take Herbert over Burrow and would not consider Burrow until at least #37 overall for us. But I will enjoy watching the Bungles be the Bungles as they shoot themselves in the foot by not taking Chase Young. Now if we can only get takers for Tua and Herbert as well in the top 5, we will be almost home free, assuming we could not possibly be stupid enough to take Love at #6.
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Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post
Your take on Lawrence does not withstand scrutiny, which should come as no surprise since you seem to be focusing almost exclusively on the most recent playoffs. With Dabo limiting Lawrence, he still has put up better passing stats as a true freshman and sophomore than Mahomes did as a sophomore and junior--better completion percentage, better YPA, better TD percentage, lower INT percentage, and a better QB rating--just better. So Mahomes was just a running QB too, right? But I do agree with you that Lawrence is a great running QB in addition to being a great passing QB. He certainly has vastly more arm talent than Burrow will ever dream of having.
Meanwhile, it was not a matter of splitting time with other QBs for Burrow at Ohio State, a poor comparison another poster tried to make to mitigate the obvious significance of Burrow's demonstrated shortcomings.
He simply was not going to play at all because he was not good enough to beat out Haskins and we have seen how Haskins has fared at the NFL level so far.
And, as if that were not enough, the same Burrow could not get it done in 2018 either at LSU, his redshirt junior season (two years further along than Lawrence's 2019 season). The only time he got it done was when his team was beyond loaded with a team talent advantage that he will never see in the NFL. That is, he is a nice little game manager.
Basically, then, Burrow's 2019 season can be taken with a grain of salt. If you are looking for something that predicts his success at the NFL level, his 2019 season is a gigantic red herring. In fact, I do not think that Burrow is even the best player on his own LSU offensive unit. I would rather have Justin Jefferson than Burrow.
While ill agree that QB's bust factors are higher....in part because GMs over draft them but ill again say that NO prospect is a sure fire thing. Would i feel very comfortable if we draft Simmons that he will be a pro bowler in a short time? Absolutely, but he comes with no 100% guarantee of that. He could suffer injuries like Lamp has or just have a hard tie adjusting.....or he may be a stud day 1. Thats the gamble.
Seriously, if Lawrence were draft eligible, there is not a GM on this planet that would not take him over Burrow right now. But Burrow does not need to feel bad about that truth as there is not a GM that would not have taken Lawrence over Murray last year and not a GM that will not take Lawrence #1 overall next year. Lawrence is just a dominant and clear lock as the #1 overall pick whenever he enters the draft, more so than Luck or Peyton Manning were.
I like Lawrence but not as much as you do. Put him on Mahomes college team and see how he does. We got a glimpse of that in the playoffs. He seems to be human.
I would take Herbert over Burrow and would not consider Burrow until at least #37 overall for us. But I will enjoy watching the Bungles be the Bungles as they shoot themselves in the foot by not taking Chase Young. Now if we can only get takers for Tua and Herbert as well in the top 5, we will be almost home free, assuming we could not possibly be stupid enough to take Love at #6.
Done arguing with someone who is wearing horse blinders. Tired of reading the same old repeated arguments.
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