Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

[Bolt Dude]

On a team with Justin Herbert at QB and Allen, Williams, Ekeler, Cook, Parham, Guyton and Johnson as receiving options, I can't get behind running the ball 53% of the time on first down even with a better OL. Ekeler is not a heavy workload RB and those better OL players will also be better at pass blocking. I think that with consistent time to throw, Herbert will absolutely shred defenses, which will be fun to watch.

I would love to see us put fear into our opponents by very aggressively attacking them through the air. I would love to see the Belichick game management system of keeping our foot on the gas pedal throughout the game. I never want to see run-run-pass-punt-let our opponent back into the game again. I want us throwing to get first downs even late in games with a significant lead. Getting first downs is what allows the team to run the clock, not running the ball just for the sake of running the ball as our previous boneheaded HC seemed to think.

And imagine it with Davonte Adam’s, too

[dmac_bolt]

I don't think the proportion of runs to pass was out of whack. The problem was that our OL couldn't block well for the run and our Hc kept running in spite of that fact. Our RB's were being hit behind to line of scrimmage. If the new OL can run block better we won't complain so much about the runs because they will gain yards and make third down conversations easier.

If you can’t block for the run, than calling the “normal” proportion of run plays actually is out of whack. As often noted, coach must adapt to talent and abilities of players. Not only was the normal proportion wrong, the predictability was crushingly depressing. Even I knew when they were calling a run play and I, good sir, am a fucking moron.

[like54ninjas]

And imagine it with Davonte Adam’s, too

[21&500]

Can't see Adams AND Williams here in 2022

[TexanBeerlover]

Can't see Adams AND Williams here in 2022

Me neither. So which is it, Williams on a turnaround season or Adams, post Rodgers?

[Formula 21]

On a team with Justin Herbert at QB and Allen, Williams, Ekeler, Cook, Parham, Guyton and Johnson as receiving options, I can't get behind running the ball 53% of the time on first down even with a better OL. Ekeler is not a heavy workload RB and those better OL players will also be better at pass blocking. I think that with consistent time to throw, Herbert will absolutely shred defenses, which will be fun to watch.

I would love to see us put fear into our opponents by very aggressively attacking them through the air. I would love to see the Belichick game management system of keeping our foot on the gas pedal throughout the game. I never want to see run-run-pass-punt-let our opponent back into the game again. I want us throwing to get first downs even late in games with a significant lead. Getting first downs is what allows the team to run the clock, not running the ball just for the sake of running the ball as our previous boneheaded HC seemed to think.

Love it


when the D loads up to stop the run, I want to throw it 40 yards down the field. If you’re a pass first team, you can run the ball a lot easier.

[chargeroo]

On a team with Justin Herbert at QB and Allen, Williams, Ekeler, Cook, Parham, Guyton and Johnson as receiving options, I can't get behind running the ball 53% of the time on first down even with a better OL. Ekeler is not a heavy workload RB and those better OL players will also be better at pass blocking. I think that with consistent time to throw, Herbert will absolutely shred defenses, which will be fun to watch.

I would love to see us put fear into our opponents by very aggressively attacking them through the air. I would love to see the Belichick game management system of keeping our foot on the gas pedal throughout the game. I never want to see run-run-pass-punt-let our opponent back into the game again. I want us throwing to get first downs even late in games with a significant lead. Getting first downs is what allows the team to run the clock, not running the ball just for the sake of running the ball as our previous boneheaded HC seemed to think.

I read the mix was 40% run, 60% pass. If we ran 53% of the time, I agree with you. But, 40/60 falls in line with what most successful teams do. Even Air Coryell mixed in many runs and you may recall that Don always had a good #1 RB as well as a good third down back.

I love watching Herbert throw and I sure love the big gains but if you can't run and everyone knows it, you won't be successful passing it all the time.

[dmac_bolt]

I read the mix was 40% run, 60% pass. If we ran 53% of the time, I agree with you. But, 40/60 falls in line with what most successful teams do. Even Air Coryell mixed in many runs and you may recall that Don always had a good #1 RB as well as a good third down back.

I love watching Herbert throw and I sure love the big gains but if you can't run and everyone knows it, you won't be successful passing it all the time.

You have to able to run, but a coach also has to know when run ain’t working. Memo to Lynn … we don’t blame you for the first time you try and run and get nada. We don’t even blame you the 2nd, or 3rd. But if you’re still calling 1st down runs in the 2nd half every series when they absolutely stoned you all game long - you’re an idiot.

[Bolt Dude]

Me neither. So which is it, Williams on a turnaround season or Adams, post Rodgers?

Adams > Mike Dub
…all day long.

And to be honest…
Adams > Julio

J. Herb throwing to a trio of Keenan, Adams, and Palmer (with stretch packages that include Guyton and Johnson) will eviscerate almost any secondary.

But who’ll step up as a $$$ TE?

[like54ninjas]

Adams > Mike Dub
…all day long.

And to be honest…
Adams > Julio

J. Herb throwing to a trio of Keenan, Adams, and Palmer (with stretch packages that include Guyton and Johnson) will eviscerate almost any secondary.

But who’ll step up as a $$$ TE?

Parham has a chance to become a valuable receiving weapon.
Draft Charlie Kolar in 2022 and we’ll be solid with Kolar, Parham, McKitty as the future at TE. With all on rookie deals they won’t kill our Cap space.

[equivocation]

It's not the overall pass/run ratio though. It's the "pass to take the lead, run to lose the lead, pass to try to win" rythm that happened over and over.


And the more you dig down into the situational stats, the more predictable you see the LAC were. For exaple, 75% run rate on 2nd and short, 2nd highest in the league.

But the Chargers also had the 3rd lowest success rate on 2nd and short (39%) and the 4th lowest yards per play on second and short (5.4) Baltimore, who ran 80% in that scenario, was 47% and 7.6.

Our good yardage came in 3rd and long scenarios where we were forced to go for chunk plays against a prepared defense (3rd highest success rate, 5th highest yards per play, 96% passing). And we had the players to win those battles anyway. But the coaches were not putting players in a position to succeed. Our success rate on 3rd and long was almost as high as out success rate on 2nd and short. There's something very, very wrong with that (coaching).

On 1st and 10 we were 21st in pass rate and 29th in succsss rate.

[equivocation]

Again, 2nd and 10. 6th in pass rate, 5th in success rate, 9th in yards per play.

You consistently see when we were above average in pass rate we were above average in success rate. When we were below average in pass rate we were below average in success rate. I haven't found a scenario where that didn't hold.

"Stop trying to make [top 10 running team] happen."