Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

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  • Rugger05
    Administrator
    • Jun 2013
    • 3714
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    Poppers breakdown of Herbert on money downs




    When the NFL media at large was projecting how Justin Herbert would fare in his sophomore season, a big point of emphasis was third-down efficiency. Generally, quarterback performance on third down is not a very consistent statistic from season to season. The numbers are volatile and fluctuate pretty significantly.

    Herbert led the league in third-down dropbacks in 2020 as a rookie. Despite that high volume — largely the result of one of the lowest first-down success rates in the NFL — Herbert ranked seventh among starting quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback, according to TruMedia.

    In the offseason, the word “regression” was thrown around because many believed — or at least posed the possibility — that this level of third-down production was not sustainable.

    Through five games, Herbert is answering those doubts. He has actually been better on third down this season than he was as a rookie. He is averaging 0.36 EPA/dropback in 2021 compared to 0.18 in 2020. And his relative volume has not changed. Herbert is tied for third in the league with 60 third-down dropbacks, putting him on the same pace he was on last season with he had 180 third-down dropbacks in 15 starts. (Ideally, this rate would drop as the season progresses, but the Chargers, right now, are a middling early-down offense.)

    Five games is a relatively small sample. So I am not going to proclaim that Herbert has proven his third-down efficiency to be sustainable. But on tape, Herbert has shown a special ability to create within and outside the structure of the offense on third downs. And this also extends to fourth downs. Herbert is averaging 0.60 EPA/dropback on third and fourth downs this season. Only the Rams’ Matthew Stafford has been better.

    Herbert is an elite player on what the league refers to as “money downs” — third and fourth — and that is a primary reason why he has cemented himself as an early MVP candidate. It is also a primary reason why the Chargers put up 47 points on the Browns on Sunday, including 26 in the fourth quarter, as the offense spearheaded a shootout win at SoFi Stadium.

    Herbert had a monster game. He set a career high in passing yards with 398. He threw four touchdowns and did not turn the ball over. He also scrambled for a crucial touchdown in the third quarter. The splash plays, particularly the two long touchdowns to Mike Williams (the first of which came on third down), got most of the attention. To me, though, a series of third- and fourth-down conversions in the second half were equally important to the Chargers’ 14-point comeback, and they help underscore just how great Herbert has been on money downs.

    Let’s start midway through the third quarter. The Chargers trailed the Browns 27-13. This was the drive that flipped the game. Earlier, the Chargers had gone for it on fourth-and-2 from their own 24-yard line. Austin Ekeler converted on a shotgun handoff. Right guard Michael Schofield, playing in place of the injured Oday Aboushi, had spurred the run with an excellent pull block. The Chargers had driven into Browns territory and faced a fourth-and-7 from the Cleveland 22-yard line. A gotta-have-it play.

    The Chargers lined up in shotgun in a condensed formation. Keenan Allen was in the left slot. The play design had him running an out route.



    Herbert took the snap, and as he hit the bottom of his drop, Allen set Browns cornerback Troy Hill up with a stutter-step break.



    As Allen got free to the outside, Browns defensive tackle Malik Jackson got past Schofield and created pressure on Herbert.



    Herbert stood in the pocket and delivered a pinpoint throw to the sideline, avoiding the trailing Hill.





    Herbert scored on his scramble two plays later. This was a good example of Herbert operating in structure. And it is also a good example of just how much the weapons around Herbert are allowing him to flourish. Allen is so reliable in these situations because of his precise and shifty route running. He leads the league this season in first-down conversion receptions on third and fourth down with 12.

    Two drives later, with the Chargers trailing 27-21, Herbert kept the possession alive with an out-of-structure third-down conversion.

    The Chargers faced a third-and-5 from their own 44-yard line, and they, again, set up in shotgun. They had three receivers, or trips, to the right of formation with Joshua Palmer, Allen and Jalen Guyton. Tight end Jared Cook was isolated to the left of the formation.



    Herbert took the snap, but before he could even hit the bottom of his drop, Myles Garrett won off the left edge against tackle Rashawn Slater.



    Herbert sensed and saw the pressure and escaped through the open gap to his left.



    As he extended the play, Herbert kept his eyes downfield. No receivers were open, but Guyton did a nice job of moving with his quarterback in an attempt to create a passing lane.



    Herbert got to the numbers and pivoted into a throwing position.



    The end zone view really displays the difficulty of this throw. Guyton is not really open. And Jackson is jumping right in Herbert’s eye line.



    Herbert hesitated for just a millisecond to give himself a window over Jackson’s outstretched hands.



    And he threw Guyton open with his ball placement.



    Herbert hit Williams for a go-ahead 42-yard touchdown on the very next play.

    The final throw I want to highlight came late in the fourth quarter. This, too, was an out-of-structure play.

    The Browns had just driven 75 yards on five plays. They only attempted one pass on the drive, and it was a screen. The Chargers run defense was a mess. And it was clear at this point of the game that Herbert was going to have to win it.

    The Chargers faced a third-and-5 from their own 30-yard line with less than four minutes remaining in regulation. They trailed 42-35.

    Herbert, again, set up in shotgun. Guyton and Cook were aligned to the left, and Allen and Williams were aligned to the right. Allen was in the slot.



    Herbert had a clean pocket initially when he hit the bottom of his drop.



    But then the pocket started to collapse when Takkarist McKinley bull-rushed through right tackle Storm Norton.



    Herbert escaped, stiff-arming McKinley to make it to the edge.



    As Herbert broke free, his receivers were all covered.



    Allen, in the scramble drill, extended his route downfield and toward the sideline. Hill was still in great position.



    Herbert threw on the run.



    His arm talent overcame Hill’s positioning.





    The Chargers scored another go-ahead touchdown three plays later on a well-blocked red zone screen to Ekeler.

    “You see him make the plays like that, it’s just this huge confidence builder for us,” center Corey Linsley said of Herbert’s off-script prowess. “It’s part of who he is.”

    Is Herbert’s money-down performance sustainable? Perhaps not. We will have to answer that question later this season, when the sample is larger.

    But the alternative is this: Justin Herbert is just that good when it matters the most.

    Comment

    • UglyTruth
      Registered Charger Fan
      • Oct 2018
      • 1681
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      Herbert is getting a ton of hype not just in America but all over the world. One of my friends that works for BleacherReport on their analytics team said only LeBron, Kyrie Irving, Messi,
      Ronaldo, and Neymar were talked about more this week on social media channels than Herbert all across the globe. I found it astonishing considering World Series was going on as well. Crazy, it obviously means he was #1 for the NFL over the likes of Brady/Mahomes etc.

      The kid has a really good head on his shoulders and has been handling the many interviews with grace.
      Tom Telesco’s Results in 9 years as Chargers GM:

      - 69-74 record
      - 0 division titles in 9 yrs as GM
      - Worst record among all active GMs with same tenure
      - 6th worst winning percentage among all active GMs overall
      - 2 playoff wins despite elite QB all 9 yrs
      - Team still has the same weaknesses (Oline and run defense) that it had when hired as GM in 2013
      - Consistently puts together horrible depth, expects starters to never miss games

      Comment

      • equivocation
        Registered Charger Fan
        • Apr 2021
        • 2600
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        Herbert has lost about 23 EPA on drops. All but one drop was on 1sr or 2nd down. The third down drop by Allen would have been about 3 EPA. 20 EPA lost on 1st/2nd down.




        Herbert has 147 pass on 1st/2nd down. 20/147 = 0.136 EPA/play lost on 1st/2nd down.

        Comment

        • equivocation
          Registered Charger Fan
          • Apr 2021
          • 2600
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          Early post credited him with 0.04 EPA/play on 1st/2nd down. He's lost over 75% of early down EPA due to drops.

          Comment

          • Boltdiehard
            The Precious
            • May 2019
            • 2385
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            Bump. He’s not bad.

            Comment

            • wu-dai clan
              Smooth Operation
              • May 2017
              • 12891
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              Herbert--and Lombardi adjusted.
              Quick reads.
              Getting the ball out early.
              You don't know ball

              Comment

              • JOJAX85
                Registered Charger Fan
                • Sep 2018
                • 1625
                • Irmo, SC
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                I don't have time to go back and rewatch the game but from what I remember, out of his six incompletions, one was a drop, one was a little high to Allen that I thought was catchable, one was just not on the same page with the receiver and the other three were thrown where either his guy caught it or nobody caught it. I will take that every single time.

                Comment

                • richpjr
                  Registered Charger Fan
                  • Jun 2013
                  • 21035
                  • Nashville
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                  Originally posted by JOJAX85 View Post
                  I don't have time to go back and rewatch the game but from what I remember, out of his six incompletions, one was a drop, one was a little high to Allen that I thought was catchable, one was just not on the same page with the receiver and the other three were thrown where either his guy caught it or nobody caught it. I will take that every single time.
                  And one was a spike to stop the clock.

                  Comment

                  • Caslon
                    Registered Charger Fan
                    • Apr 2019
                    • 3078
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                    Not that into what he “did there” convo. All I remember regarding questionable QB play is when Rivers let the clock run down out of personal righteousness arguing with the refs.That cost the Chargers that game. His thick headiness resulted in a loss. He lost that game all by himself. I actually don’t miss Rivers.

                    Comment

                    • Velo
                      Ride!
                      • Aug 2019
                      • 10811
                      • Everywhere
                      • Leave the gun, take the cannolis
                      • Send PM

                      Is Herbert already better than Josh Allen?

                      Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union Tribune weighs in. Good read. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...sh-allen-bills

                      Already, Hall of Fame talent man Bill Polian has projected Herbert to rival Mahomes as the NFL’s top QB in the next several years. Asked if Allen could join Herbert and Mahomes in that group, Polian didn’t hesitate.

                      “No,” he said on his podcast last month. Without providing details, Polian added: “He does not have the natural gifts that those two have.”

                      Comment

                      • BlazingBolt
                        SLAM DUNK!
                        • Jun 2013
                        • 1657
                        • East County San Diego
                        • Bolt fanatic
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                        Herbert did some interviews today, you can see him on cowherd on youtube and NFL now on NFL network you can find too. Kind of working on his day off.



                        migrated from chargerfans.net then the thenflforum.com then here

                        Comment

                        • Bolt-O
                          Administrator
                          • Jun 2013
                          • 32157
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