Tweet
Hello Charger fans. Lifelong Duck fan here. I’m ecstatic that Justin Herbert landed in LA. I was a huge Chargers fan growing up. Air Coryell, Fouts, Winslow, Jefferson, Joiner, Brooks etc. were fun to watch. IMO, Herbert is the best QB prospect to come from the PAC12 since Andrew Luck. In fact, a less polished Andrew Luck is a good comparison for Herbert. Both are big, strong, fast, have elite arm talent, and a big brain. Herbert is a more natural athlete than Luck.
I’m sure you’ve heard the stories about Herbert growing up Eugene and was born to be a Duck with his family having ties to the school going back to his grandfather, who played football at Oregon. Coming out of Sheldon HS, a big school that plays at highest level in the state, Herbert was a three sport star in baseball, basketball, and football. He was not a kid that focused on one sport like so many kids do nowadays. He didn’t do the 7 on 7 camps. He broke his leg his junior year of football which caused him to fly under the radar as a recruit. He’s very competitive and recovered from his injury so quickly that he was able to play basketball two months later.
At Oregon, the coaches signed two four-star QB recruits, Travis Jonsen and Terry Wilson, along with the unheralded Herbert. It didn’t take long for the coaches to figure out that Herbert was the best QB of the bunch. Jonsen transferred to Montana State and Wilson is the starting QB for Kentucky. Herbert was promoted to back-up. The head coach was Mark Helfrich at the time, who eventually became the OC of the Chicago Bears. Helfrich is a good X’s and O’s guy but a terrible head coach. Recruiting fell off the map and the defense was horrific. Helfrich sprinkled in some NFL passing concepts to go along with Chip Kelly’s blur offense. The starting QB was a transfer and it became clear from the start that he wasn’t D1 material. Herbert replaced him during the first half of the Washington game in week 5. Oregon got trounced 70-21, the worst home loss in team history. Herbert made some nice throws and had two touchdown passes. Herbert had 6 TDs passes at Cal the following week and broke the Autzen stadium record for passing yards with 489 against ASU the week after that. Oregon went 4-8 and Helfrich was fired but it was clear to me that Oregon had a first-round talent at QB.
Willie Taggart replaced Helfrich as HC Herbert’s sophomore year. This is where Herbert’s development went sideways. Current Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal was the OL coach. Taggart was a proponent of the Gulf Coast offense. This offense requires the QB to run a ton and throw deep. Herbert is a good athlete but was completely miscast in this offense. He’s not a dynamic dual-threat like a Lamar Jackson. He’s a passer first and foremost and a runner that can keep defenses honest. He broke his collarbone week 5 against Cal trying to run over three tacklers at the goal line, which he did, but a fourth tackler came over the top and torpedoed him into the turf. Taggart encouraged Herbert to make tough guy plays like this and cut his season short as result. Fortunately for Oregon fans, Taggart took the Florida State job before the bowl game against Boise State. Mario Cristobal was promoted to head coach and Oregon got waxed in the Vegas Bowl.
Mario Cristobal has righted the Oregon football program. He’s an excellent recruiter and general but not an offensive guru. Herbert’s development continued to stall his final two years at Oregon. Cristobal coached at Alabama when Nick Saban was still playing smashmouth football. Cristobal decided that he was going to build a power running game that featured the pistol. This was a huge departure in scheme from the Gulf Coast and Helfrich’s spread. Cristobal hired RB coach Jim Maestro to install the pistol. Maestro coached under Chris Ault at Nevada during the Colin Kaepernick era. Kaepernick was a dual-threat beast. Marcus Arroyo, now the HC at UNLV, was Oregon’s offensive coordinator. So, Cristobal, Maestro, and Arroyo concocted a power running offense featuring the pistol. The problem is that the pistol doesn’t work that well unless the QB runs the football. Cristobal decided he would preserve Herbert and not allow him to run much until the end of the year. In the pistol, the RB is used primarily between the tackles. If the QB doesn’t run, the LBs stay in the box and run downhill to the RB. It’s agonizingly predictable and forced the offense into obvious passing downs. To compensate for stacked boxes, Oregon ran a ton of horizontal routes like bubble screens and quick slants. The passing game played second fiddle to the running game. To make things worse, Oregon had mediocre receivers due to the decline in recruiting under Helfrich. In 2018, the receivers dropped a whopping 52 passes, a drop rate of ~13% or almost two and half times the NFL average. The receivers couldn’t handle Herbert’s bullets. Some of the pundits have talked about Herbert improving his completion % from his junior to senior year but that is basically a function of fewer drops this year. Had his receivers had half the drops his junior season, then his completion % is basically the same the last two years.
Herbert came back his senior year because of his loyalty to his teammates, coaches, and Oregon. On top of all of this, he’s a dedicated student. He wanted to go out on top. Oregon went 12-2 and won the Rose Bowl. Herbert showed off his athletic ability the last two games by running the football against top defenses, Utah and Wisconsin. He was a major reason why Oregon football made a dramatic turnaround and became the top program in the PAC 12. Cristobal hired former Miss. State HC Joe Moorhead as OC to replace Arroyo. The alumni, including myself, are hoping that Cristobal allows Moorhead to do his thing and the pistol fades away.
Herbert’s development as a QB stalled at Oregon the last three years. He played for three different head coaches and in three different offenses. He played in a predictable, conservative offense the last two years that didn’t develop him as a QB. Two of his best games occurred during his freshman year when he played in a more wide-open scheme. This will be the first time in his life that he’s 100% dedicated to football without the distractions of school or other sports. He’s a quick study. I’m optimistic that he can get coached up fairly quick with a legit NFL QB coach. One thing he needs to work on his maintaining his mechanics when under pressure. He tends to drop his shoulder under pressure and doesn’t use his hips which hurts his accuracy. But make no mistake about it, Herbert is deadly accurate when his mechanics are sound. He makes throws that I’ve never seen a QB make. This will be the first time that he’s had receivers that can consistently catch his bullets. The worst mistake the Chargers can make is to rely on Herbert’s legs. He’s mobile, can throw on the run, and can get first downs with legs to keep defenses honest, but he’s a passer first. The Chargers need to feature the passing game and let him throw the football. He can stretch the field with his arm. A dink and dunk offense would not maximize his talents. He throws better outside the hashes than between them. He can throw the deep out from either hash with ease. His bomb is epic. He can execute RPOs and play action, but that shouldn’t be a staple of the offense. Let four or five receivers go out for passes most of the time and force defenses to cover. Put Herbert in the shotgun and let him survey the field. An offense like Andy Reid’s at KC, the Saints offense under Sean Payton, Doug Pederson’s at Philly or his former OC Frank Reich now at Indy would fit him. It would behoove the Chargers to get some serious speed on the outside to go along with Williams and Allen.
I’m sure you’ve heard the stories about Herbert growing up Eugene and was born to be a Duck with his family having ties to the school going back to his grandfather, who played football at Oregon. Coming out of Sheldon HS, a big school that plays at highest level in the state, Herbert was a three sport star in baseball, basketball, and football. He was not a kid that focused on one sport like so many kids do nowadays. He didn’t do the 7 on 7 camps. He broke his leg his junior year of football which caused him to fly under the radar as a recruit. He’s very competitive and recovered from his injury so quickly that he was able to play basketball two months later.
At Oregon, the coaches signed two four-star QB recruits, Travis Jonsen and Terry Wilson, along with the unheralded Herbert. It didn’t take long for the coaches to figure out that Herbert was the best QB of the bunch. Jonsen transferred to Montana State and Wilson is the starting QB for Kentucky. Herbert was promoted to back-up. The head coach was Mark Helfrich at the time, who eventually became the OC of the Chicago Bears. Helfrich is a good X’s and O’s guy but a terrible head coach. Recruiting fell off the map and the defense was horrific. Helfrich sprinkled in some NFL passing concepts to go along with Chip Kelly’s blur offense. The starting QB was a transfer and it became clear from the start that he wasn’t D1 material. Herbert replaced him during the first half of the Washington game in week 5. Oregon got trounced 70-21, the worst home loss in team history. Herbert made some nice throws and had two touchdown passes. Herbert had 6 TDs passes at Cal the following week and broke the Autzen stadium record for passing yards with 489 against ASU the week after that. Oregon went 4-8 and Helfrich was fired but it was clear to me that Oregon had a first-round talent at QB.
Willie Taggart replaced Helfrich as HC Herbert’s sophomore year. This is where Herbert’s development went sideways. Current Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal was the OL coach. Taggart was a proponent of the Gulf Coast offense. This offense requires the QB to run a ton and throw deep. Herbert is a good athlete but was completely miscast in this offense. He’s not a dynamic dual-threat like a Lamar Jackson. He’s a passer first and foremost and a runner that can keep defenses honest. He broke his collarbone week 5 against Cal trying to run over three tacklers at the goal line, which he did, but a fourth tackler came over the top and torpedoed him into the turf. Taggart encouraged Herbert to make tough guy plays like this and cut his season short as result. Fortunately for Oregon fans, Taggart took the Florida State job before the bowl game against Boise State. Mario Cristobal was promoted to head coach and Oregon got waxed in the Vegas Bowl.
Mario Cristobal has righted the Oregon football program. He’s an excellent recruiter and general but not an offensive guru. Herbert’s development continued to stall his final two years at Oregon. Cristobal coached at Alabama when Nick Saban was still playing smashmouth football. Cristobal decided that he was going to build a power running game that featured the pistol. This was a huge departure in scheme from the Gulf Coast and Helfrich’s spread. Cristobal hired RB coach Jim Maestro to install the pistol. Maestro coached under Chris Ault at Nevada during the Colin Kaepernick era. Kaepernick was a dual-threat beast. Marcus Arroyo, now the HC at UNLV, was Oregon’s offensive coordinator. So, Cristobal, Maestro, and Arroyo concocted a power running offense featuring the pistol. The problem is that the pistol doesn’t work that well unless the QB runs the football. Cristobal decided he would preserve Herbert and not allow him to run much until the end of the year. In the pistol, the RB is used primarily between the tackles. If the QB doesn’t run, the LBs stay in the box and run downhill to the RB. It’s agonizingly predictable and forced the offense into obvious passing downs. To compensate for stacked boxes, Oregon ran a ton of horizontal routes like bubble screens and quick slants. The passing game played second fiddle to the running game. To make things worse, Oregon had mediocre receivers due to the decline in recruiting under Helfrich. In 2018, the receivers dropped a whopping 52 passes, a drop rate of ~13% or almost two and half times the NFL average. The receivers couldn’t handle Herbert’s bullets. Some of the pundits have talked about Herbert improving his completion % from his junior to senior year but that is basically a function of fewer drops this year. Had his receivers had half the drops his junior season, then his completion % is basically the same the last two years.
Herbert came back his senior year because of his loyalty to his teammates, coaches, and Oregon. On top of all of this, he’s a dedicated student. He wanted to go out on top. Oregon went 12-2 and won the Rose Bowl. Herbert showed off his athletic ability the last two games by running the football against top defenses, Utah and Wisconsin. He was a major reason why Oregon football made a dramatic turnaround and became the top program in the PAC 12. Cristobal hired former Miss. State HC Joe Moorhead as OC to replace Arroyo. The alumni, including myself, are hoping that Cristobal allows Moorhead to do his thing and the pistol fades away.
Herbert’s development as a QB stalled at Oregon the last three years. He played for three different head coaches and in three different offenses. He played in a predictable, conservative offense the last two years that didn’t develop him as a QB. Two of his best games occurred during his freshman year when he played in a more wide-open scheme. This will be the first time in his life that he’s 100% dedicated to football without the distractions of school or other sports. He’s a quick study. I’m optimistic that he can get coached up fairly quick with a legit NFL QB coach. One thing he needs to work on his maintaining his mechanics when under pressure. He tends to drop his shoulder under pressure and doesn’t use his hips which hurts his accuracy. But make no mistake about it, Herbert is deadly accurate when his mechanics are sound. He makes throws that I’ve never seen a QB make. This will be the first time that he’s had receivers that can consistently catch his bullets. The worst mistake the Chargers can make is to rely on Herbert’s legs. He’s mobile, can throw on the run, and can get first downs with legs to keep defenses honest, but he’s a passer first. The Chargers need to feature the passing game and let him throw the football. He can stretch the field with his arm. A dink and dunk offense would not maximize his talents. He throws better outside the hashes than between them. He can throw the deep out from either hash with ease. His bomb is epic. He can execute RPOs and play action, but that shouldn’t be a staple of the offense. Let four or five receivers go out for passes most of the time and force defenses to cover. Put Herbert in the shotgun and let him survey the field. An offense like Andy Reid’s at KC, the Saints offense under Sean Payton, Doug Pederson’s at Philly or his former OC Frank Reich now at Indy would fit him. It would behoove the Chargers to get some serious speed on the outside to go along with Williams and Allen.
Comment