When Does Herbert Sit? - Justin Herbert Discussion

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  • Xenos
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    • Feb 2019
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    Dan Fouts wished he had more time to mentor Herbert. Even though I don't know why he just doesn't do it anyways via Zoom. You can still reach out to him Dan and mentor him.

    In the summer of 1973, Dan Fouts was a wide-eyed 22-year-old rookie quarterback embarking on what would become a Hall of Fame career. Earlier that year, the San Diego Chargers drafted Fouts out of Oregon in the third round, 64th overall. He joined a roster that included a 40-year-old Johnny Unitas, who, at that juncture, was unquestionably the greatest quarterback ever. The Chargers traded for Unitas after he spent the first 17 years of his career with the Baltimore Colts, for whom he threw for 39,768 yards and won three titles, including Super Bowl V.

    Unitas was well past his prime in 1973. But his quarterbacking knowledge was virtually unparalleled.

    And that year, Fouts found himself at a bar with Unitas, and the two chatted about football over beers.

    “Just a lot of nuances of playing the position,” Fouts recalled of that drinking session with Unitas in an interview with The Athletic. “About reading coverages and getting a pre-snap read. It’s like in a poker game where you’re looking for a tell, and you find the tell through your film study and your scouting reports, and then by watching a guy and what you might know about his background. All of that goes into where you’re going to throw the damn ball.”

    Unitas spilled the secrets. Fouts soaked them up. He still remembers that evening nearly 50 years later.

    “I had to buy a lot of beer,” Fouts quipped. “But it was fun. I learned a lot.”

    Now Fouts is anxious to pay those lessons forward to the new face of the Chargers — a wide-eyed 22-year-old rookie quarterback, drafted out of Oregon, now ready to embark on his own NFL career.

    Yes, that would be Justin Herbert.

    Fouts had planned to be a part of the broadcast team for the Chargers’ preseason games, but those have been canceled because of the pandemic. Fouts laments the missed time. He wants to do for Herbert what Unitas did for him, and to be the through-line from one of the game’s most iconic players to the future of the organization he represented so admirably for 15 seasons.

    “I was hoping to spend a lot of time with him. But that’s all gone,” Fouts said of Herbert. “I missed out there, and I feel bad about that, because there’s a lot I want to share with him about just playing the position.”


    Publicly, the organization has branded 2020 as A New Era Of Chargers Football. And to some degree, that rings true. Philip Rivers, the team’s starting quarterback for the past 14 seasons — and a player just as synonymous with the Chargers as Fouts — is gone, having signed with the Colts as a free agent. The Chargers are moving into a new stadium, finally cementing their transition from San Diego to Los Angeles. And now here is Herbert, with his flowing golden locks and West Coast vibes, to carry the Chargers into this self-proclaimed new era.

    And yet the ties to the past are undeniable. The young man tasked with starting this next chapter in franchise history is inseparable from that history, so much so that Herbert, in many ways, has always been destined to be in this spot, with this franchise, writing this future.

    Fouts was close friends with Herbert’s grandfather, Rich Schwab, an Oregon legend who played receiver for the Ducks in the early 1960s. Schwab died unexpectedly in January 2018.

    “Just a fucking great guy,” Fouts said of Herbert’s grandfather. “You say the word ‘Schwabby’ around Oregon, everybody knows who you’re talking about.”

    So Fouts always had an eye on Herbert, even if he didn’t officially meet him until a “couple years ago” when Herbert was at Oregon.

    “Just watching Justin through the years from high school on through his years at Oregon,” Fouts said, “there’s been a real interest obviously and a connection there.”

    The connection has only deepened now that Herbert is following Fouts’ footsteps even further into life and into the NFL.

    “I’m a proud Duck,” Fouts said. “And I’m really excited to watch Justin play.”

    “Mr. Fouts is an incredible person,” Herbert said after the draft. “To know that he was such a great man and such a great football player, it’s really cool. It’s a really special opportunity.”

    The Chargers ties run even deeper, though.

    Growing up in Eugene, Ore., Herbert and his two brothers had no NFL team to root for. So they settled on the Chargers. Herbert specifically mentioned LaDainian Tomlinson as a reason why they gravitated toward the San Diego team.

    Herbert would often wear a Chargers T-shirt when he was a kid. And after Herbert was drafted, a Reddit user who claimed to have gone to elementary school with Herbert posted a photo of the new Chargers QB wearing the shirt. Herbert later confirmed it was him in the photo.

    “I actually wore that shirt a lot,” Herbert said in May. “Kind of funny how it worked out.”

    It is kind of funny, isn’t it?

    Or destiny, depending on your perspective.

    Herbert grew up a Chargers fan.

    In an elementary school worksheet, Herbert predicted he would be playing professional football in Los Angeles.

    Herbert went to Oregon, same as Fouts, the Chargers’ first homegrown Hall of Fame quarterback.

    And same as Fouts, Herbert got drafted by the Chargers at age 22.

    It all seems meant to be.

    The last link to complete the full circle is that conversation with Fouts — for the Chargers wisdom of yesteryear to find a new home in the mind of the team’s bright future.

    “There’s a lot that I have to share, and I’m anxious to do that,” Fouts said. “At some point, I will.”

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    • chargeroo
      Fan since 1961
      • Jan 2019
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      Originally posted by Xenos View Post

      As someone who loved Teddy Bridgewater and believe he got the short end of the stick with Norv as his OC, I can agree somewhat. Even though I am currently grateful we grabbed Herbert. Just wished we had gotten an LT in the draft as well. TT and the FO seem to be on the Pipkins train to not even look at Jason Peters or draft someone to compete.
      That's the same conclusion I came too. If they are right and he turns out to be our LOT for the next dozen years or so I'll have to eat my words. Looks like we'll know soon enough!

      THE YEAR OF THE FLIP!

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      • Xenos
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        • Feb 2019
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        Predraft, someone did video breakdowns of the top 4 QB using a method called frame counting. Unfortunately, Herbert got the short end of the stick and is barely mentioned in the piece until the very end. Can't believe he got compared to Derek Anderson of all people though. I still think it's interesting enough to read through though especially if you want some cons instead of just pros about Herbert. I definitely enjoyed seeing the process of framing counting.
        https://medium.com/@thetim_dix/nfl-d...m-b69abd897399

        Projecting success for a 22-year-old is hard. Law schools try to judge a student’s viability with a test like the LSAT. Med schools do the same by having prospective doctors take the MCAT. The NFL, on the other hand, tries to predict success by stripping draft prospects down to their underwear and asking them to sprint in a straight line for 40 yards. And by measuring the width of their hands. And, apparently, by smelling them.

        But, believe it or not, NFL combine events like the 40-yard dash are not good predictors of success (the jury is still out on the smell test, however). And, unfortunately, for quarterbacks at least, traditional college stats have very small correlations with NFL success. That’s why the majority of a prospect’s evaluation has to be based on their game tape, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The problem with evaluating a prospect’s tape, however, is that it’s subjective. What Todd McShay sees on tape is different than what Mel Kiper sees (and this obviously holds true for scouts and GMs around the NFL, too).

        One way to at least partially solve this problem is what’s called frame counting. See, every frame of a video is a piece of data. And that data can help quantify things like the quickness of a QB’s throwing motion or the strength of their arm. It can even help quantify how fast they make decisions.

        And that’s exactly what I’ve done here. As it says in the title, I’ve counted the frames and “done the math” on more than 400 throws from the players who I deem to be the top-four quarterback prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft: LSU’s Joe Burrow, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Utah State’s Jordan Love, and Oregon’s Justin Herbert. Now, if you just want to know how much faster Tua’s release is than Joe Burrow’s, or which QB has the strongest arm, skip ahead to the “RESULTS” section. And if you really don’t feel like reading, there’s a TL;DR at the bottom of the page. But if you’re even slightly curious how these results were calculated, I’m going to briefly explain how all of this works before diving into the data.
        Trigger Time

        Now, I only just started looking at the idea of “trigger time” last year, but I think it might be the most important of the three metrics covered in this analysis. Again, this is measuring the amount of time it takes a QB to start their throwing motion after they’ve locked on a target. This provides insight into how a quarterback sees the field and how quickly they process information. Additionally, the less time a QB stares down their target before a throw, the less time a DB has to react to the pass. And it’s this trait that makes Joe Burrow absolutely special.................

        Now, I also don’t want to sell the other quarterbacks short here, as each player’s situation was unique. Love, especially in 2019, did not have a whole lot of talent around him. Oftentimes, this had him waiting for receivers to gain separation. Herbert, on the other hand, had talent around him. But, whether it be by design or habit, he throws it to his first read more often than not (and, again, screen passes were not included in this analysis). I was, however, pleasantly surprised by Herbert’s visual processing. While he generally wants to throw it to his first read, he’s realizes when it’s not open. Tua’s trigger time was above average. He has excellent vision and he can quickly cycle through reads, but I have to wonder if his arm strength slows down his decision making just a bit. Not to get away from the objectivity, but if he has to really “think” about whether or not his arm can make the throw, his brain has to do more top-down processing, which can slow down decision making.

        4) Justin Herbert


        Herbert has the look of a prototypical NFL quarterback. He’s tall, he’s got a great arm, and he’s an accurate passer. At times he looks like a high-level starter, but, at other times, he looks like a bust waiting to happen. As I said, his visual processing speed is better than I had initially thought. And, when he’s not throwing a screen pass, he can be impressive.

        After frame-counting 111 of his throws, though, I kept coming back to the same player comparison: Derek Anderson. Yes, the big-bodied, journeyman QB. Their bodies move the same way and they both have big arms. Now, that’s not a total indictment on Herbert. Derek Anderson did make a Pro Bowl after all. But I just don’t think Herbert’s going to walk into a franchise, especially one drafting in the top-10 (looking at you, Miami), and fix all their problems.
        TL;DR
        Of the four quarterback prospects, Jordan Love has the strongest arm. With a maximum launch velocity that’s nearly equivalent to a 98 mile per hour fastball, he’s able to make some throws the other QBs cannot. While Tua Tagovailoa’s arm is a concern, he makes up for it with the quickest throwing motion I’ve ever analyzed — yes, it’s faster than Dan Marino’s. Joe Burrow, on the other hand, was in the middle of the pack for both arm strength and release time, but he’s the quickest decision maker. In fact, he took less time, on average, to pull the trigger on throws than any other quarterback I’ve tracked. Justin Herbert was generally around average for each metric. I see Joe Burrow having Joe Montana-like talent (not necessarily the same career), Tua is a combination of Drew Brees’s 40-year-old arm and Mike Vick’s 37-year-old legs, Love reminds me of a mini Josh Allen, and Herbert has a striking resemblance to Derek Anderson. And if the NFL Combine wants to hit me up for ideas on how to improve their process, my DMs are wide open.

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        • PORTERPARTY1
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          • Aug 2020
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          Have we ever seen a situation where the rookie is inserted for a few series to give him game experiene and confuse defense? We drafted Herbert and he has played football for a dozen or so seasons so let's see what he has with a few simple plays, then expand.

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          • like54ninjas
            Registered Charger Fan
            • Oct 2017
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            Originally posted by PORTERPARTY1 View Post
            Have we ever seen a situation where the rookie is inserted for a few series to give him game experiene and confuse defense? We drafted Herbert and he has played football for a dozen or so seasons so let's see what he has with a few simple plays, then expand.
            Welcome aboard TPB.

            Right idea. I think it starts to come to reality mid-season.
            My 2021 Adopt-A-Bolt List

            MikeDub
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            • PR#1
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              • Aug 2019
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              Originally posted by Topcat View Post

              We certainly don't want to rush Hollywood Herbie into the lineup before he's ready, and destroy his confidence. Herbie sits and learns behind Tyrod.
              Yes you are correct.

              We have to take it slow with Hollywood.

              If Hollywood busts, it could be 20 years before we find our next franchise qb.

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              • chargeroo
                Fan since 1961
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                Originally posted by PORTERPARTY1 View Post
                Have we ever seen a situation where the rookie is inserted for a few series to give him game experiene and confuse defense? We drafted Herbert and he has played football for a dozen or so seasons so let's see what he has with a few simple plays, then expand.
                I like this idea. Without a pre-season there's not much of a chance he'll get much work and learn much. During the season the backup QB gets zero time with the #1's. Pick some spots to get him a little [laying time.
                THE YEAR OF THE FLIP!

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                • chargeroo
                  Fan since 1961
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                  Originally posted by Topcat View Post

                  We certainly don't want to rush Hollywood Herbie into the lineup before he's ready, and destroy his confidence. Herbie sits and learns behind Tyrod.
                  He's from Eugene, Oregon - where do you get the Hollywood from?
                  THE YEAR OF THE FLIP!

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                  • Fleet
                    TPB Founder
                    • Jun 2013
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                    Originally posted by PORTERPARTY1 View Post
                    Have we ever seen a situation where the rookie is inserted for a few series to give him game experiene and confuse defense? We drafted Herbert and he has played football for a dozen or so seasons so let's see what he has with a few simple plays, then expand.
                    Welcome to the Blues. I honestly thought the same with Stick and Taylor. I really thought we would see one or both of those guys sprinkled in with Rivers. Just to compliment him. Like we see in NO. If we show that early last year and are successful you force defenses to start prepping for it during the week.

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                    • Xenos
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                      • Feb 2019
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                      Originally posted by PORTERPARTY1 View Post
                      Have we ever seen a situation where the rookie is inserted for a few series to give him game experiene and confuse defense? We drafted Herbert and he has played football for a dozen or so seasons so let's see what he has with a few simple plays, then expand.
                      I guess that’s what clean up duty is at the end of games. In the middle of a contested battle, it’s harder to justify putting him in unless Tyrod is injured or completely abysmal.

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                      • Topcat
                        AKA "Pollcat"
                        • Jan 2019
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                        Originally posted by chargeroo View Post

                        He's from Eugene, Oregon - where do you get the Hollywood from?
                        Justin is in L.A. now...hence the Hollywood moniker...besides, it's a nice alliteration with the double "H"...if you don't like it, we could always go back to "Horseface Herbie Jr.", since one poster likened Justin's style to Elway...

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                        • powderblueboy
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                          • Jul 2017
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                          Originally posted by Xenos View Post
                          Predraft, someone did video breakdowns of the top 4 QB using a method called frame counting. Unfortunately, Herbert got the short end of the stick and is barely mentioned in the piece until the very end. Can't believe he got compared to Derek Anderson of all people though. I still think it's interesting enough to read through though especially if you want some cons instead of just pros about Herbert. I definitely enjoyed seeing the process of framing counting.
                          https://medium.com/@thetim_dix/nfl-d...m-b69abd897399







                          Thanks, nice read.

                          I don't see the derek anderson comparison at all other than both being 6'6" and from Oregon.

                          Anderson was a slow pocket passer

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