Chargers among teams that remain under 50% vaccinated

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  • captaind
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    #37
    Originally posted by like54ninjas View Post

    He obviously is more well read on this subject than you, I, or anyone from the state departments of health, CDC, WAPO, or medical reference/education materials, for medical professionals, I listed to refute his inaccurate assertions.
    I’m sure he’ll post all of his appropriate evidence and reference materials at some point.
    Whatever you do, don't let actual results alter your faith in studies that haven't been peer reviewed yet. That might require you to think for yourself.

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    • like54ninjas
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      #38
      Originally posted by captaind View Post

      Whatever you do, don't let actual results alter your faith in studies that haven't been peer reviewed yet. That might require you to think for yourself.
      Says the guy who has only referenced a single report from Singapore that contains a month worth of data.
      My confidence is proportional to the evidence I’m aware of. Faith is not a term I use to describe my confidence level.

      Just for the record here’s one more data point for you. Here are results of phase 3 clinical trial for the Pfizer vaccine.

      The updated analysis of the Phase 3 clinical trial was conducted in accordance with guidance from the FDA for all companies investigating COVID-19 vaccines to review safety and efficacy at key milestones.

      Results from this analysis of 46,307 trial participants build upon and confirm previously released data and demonstrate strong protection against COVID-19 through six months post-second dose. From the 927 confirmed symptomatic cases of COVID-19 in the trial, 850 cases of COVID-19 were in the placebo group and 77 cases were in the BNT162b2 group, corresponding to vaccine efficacy of 91.3% (95% confidence interval [CI, 89.0, 93.2]).

      Thirty-two cases of severe disease, as defined by the CDC, were observed in the placebo group versus none in the BNT162b2 vaccinated group, indicating that the vaccine was 100% efficacious in this analysis against severe disease by the CDC definition (95% CI, [88.0,100.0]). Twenty-one severe cases, as defined by the FDA, were observed in the placebo group versus one case in the BNT162b2 vaccinated group, indicating 95.3% efficacy by the FDA definition (95% CI, [71.0, 99.9]).

      Efficacy was generally consistent across age, gender, race and ethnicity demographics, and across participants with a variety of underlying conditions.

      A total of 697 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the United States; 647 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 50 in the vaccine group, indicating vaccine efficacy of 92.6% (95% CI, [90.1, 94.5]).
      https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-re...and-no-serious
      Last edited by like54ninjas; 07-25-2021, 06:49 AM.
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      • captaind
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        #39
        Sir Patrick Vallance on Twitter: "Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people." / Twitter

        40% of hospitalizations currently in the UK are vaccinated people.

        But I shouldn't jump to any conclusions when observable data doesn't match the hypothesis, I suppose.

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        • like54ninjas
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          #40
          Originally posted by captaind View Post
          How many of that remaining 40% are FULLY vaccinated vs the 1 shot crowd? Seems important information to me.

          No, you definitely shouldn’t jump to conclusions. That we agree on..
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          • captaind
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            #41
            Originally posted by like54ninjas View Post

            How many of that remaining 40% are FULLY vaccinated vs the 1 shot crowd? Seems important information to me.

            No, you definitely shouldn’t jump to conclusions. That we agree on..
            Good question. Nevertheless this is concerning. A number that high even undermines my position.

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            • equivocation
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              #42
              There is nothing more unjustifiably smug and arrogant than the "think for yourself" or "do your own research" tropes.

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              • like54ninjas
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                #43
                Originally posted by equivocation View Post
                There is nothing more unjustifiably smug and arrogant than the "think for yourself" or "do your own research" tropes.
                Mostly because they do neither.
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                • captaind
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                  #44
                  Originally posted by equivocation View Post
                  There is nothing more unjustifiably smug and arrogant than the "think for yourself" or "do your own research" tropes.
                  Except maybe those who desperately cling to their political ideology instead of admitting when they're wrong.

                  The CDC wouldn't be reconsidering mask-wearing guidance for vaccinated people if there was little chance they could spread it. Maybe you could ask a neighbor to redistribute a crowbar to you so you can pry your hands off your liberalism.

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                  • equivocation
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                    #45
                    Except I didn't say anything political. Even going back to the MNF board I've had the right calling me liberal or RINO and the left calling me conservative (or the dreaded neolib). I call it having a low tolerance for BS.

                    You've made several strong claims here, one explicit and one implicit, while providing scant evidence for either, and proclaimed all those who disagree with you to be nonthinking dolts and/or sheep. And while I suppose hasty generalization is a type of thinking, most people won't find it particularly impressive or persuasive.

                    And remember, you're the one making these claims that the NFL is absolutely, certainly unjustified in their policies. Don't demand someone disprove what you can't be bothered to prove.

                    CLAIM 1 - COVID VACCINE PROVIDES NO PROTECTION FROM COVID INFECTION

                    In support of this claim you have linked a single summary article by Reuters of a single study of a single city state at a single point in time and a...tweet. I'm sorry, is posting something from twitter "thinking for [yourself]"?

                    First off, even if the above 100% accurate and all extraneous variables are accounted for, it is an incredibly hasty generalization. Get your jump to conclusions mat ready. What does the data from the other 99% of the world say?

                    The Singapore data could simply be an outlier. Have you done any thinking or research to indicate otherwise?

                    However, worse than that, you have done no work to make sure your data is apples to apples. What testing requirements does Singapore have? Is their testing rate higher than other data? Why? What impacts would that have on the data set? What implications would it have if different testing regimes result in different positivity ratios among vaccinated/nonvaccinated populations? For example, do health care workers in high contact environments get tested daily? Weekly? Never? How are they detecting asymptomatic cases?

                    What vaccines did Singapore use? 1 dose or 2 dose? (they're all mRNA vaccines, the 1 dose uses an adenovirus as the delivery vector but a second dose becomes ineffective as your body attacks the vector) How many had both doses? Is there differential rates of infection in 1 dose vs 2? When were the doses received?

                    What about demographic and geographical data that we know has an impact? Have you controlled for that?

                    Now do that for EVERY DATA SET, not just the one you cherry pick. This would take a skilled and experienced data scientist at least 200 hours of actual work to do. That's called "research".


                    See, those are all questions that "thinking for yourself" or "doing your own research" can answer. And maybe you did all that, but how would anyone know if you don't tell them? Just giving the imperative to "think for yourself" plus one summary article and one...tweet...isn't going to convince anyone.

                    WEAK CLAIM 1(A) - VACCINES ARE LESS EFFECTIVE AGAINST COVID DELTA INFECTION AND SO THE NFL MANDATING THEM ISN'T WORTH IT

                    This is a subclaim of above, as your chances of showing the vaccines have ZERO effect (your claim) on delta transmission approach zero.

                    This would then not be a case of people [not thinking for themselves] but instead a result of different set of priorities and values. The NFL may decide that even a 5% reduction in infections is worth the rules. Yelling "think for yourselves!" really doesn't answer that. "Is the juice worth the squeeze?" is a judgement call.

                    Strong CLAIM 2 - VACCINES DONT PREVENT TRANSMISSION OF THE VIRUS (AT ALL)

                    What is utterly missing form your data is contact tracing of the infected individuals and how they got infected, from vaccinated or unvaccinated carriers. Preventing transmission is just as valid a policy concern outbound as inbound. It could (and should, based on basic knowledge of immunology) be that people with some amouny of immunity to any disease are sick for a shorter period of time, contagious for a shorter period of time, less contagious overall, cause smaller resevoirs and less shedding. The idea that covid vaccines provide protection against getting the disease worse (meaning they clearly mitigate severity to some extent) but do nothing to decrease how contagious infected individuals are is ludicrous. That's not how immune systems work (my undergrad is Bio engineering with a focus on engineered immune systems, particularly chimeric TCR sites)

                    Absolutely ludicrous. And yet that is exactly what you are claiming. The NFL would be more than justified in it's policies based on that alone. You have done absolutely zero work or thought to contradict that. You have shown no work and no warrants. I have no idea if such data sets even exist at this point. I suspect neither do you. Basic cell biology says vaccines prevent outbound transmission. But again, don't ask peoplw to disprove that which you can't be bothered to prove.

                    This disease will be endemic. The only way to eradicate it is widespread adoption of high quality vaccines, and I don't think we're ever going to get there. We're going to have to learn to live with it. People thinking for themselves would be a good thing. Maybe you should start. You could do a doctoral thesis on this if you want to do actual reseach instead of twitter. It will take thousands of hours of you time.

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                    • captaind
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                      #46
                      You're making this far too complicated.

                      WEAK CLAIM 1 - NFL creates new rule insinuating that only unvaccinated people can cause a COVID outbreak.

                      Captain's Claim: this is playing out in real time, and no one really knows how effective any vaccine will be at preventing the spread of COVID. However, recent evidence in both Singapore, the UK, and hell, let's throw in the Texas legislators who jumped ship on a plane to DC together, and now three of them who were fully vaccinated have tested positive. Anecdotal? Sure, but it contradicts this new "blame the unvaccinated" movement that recently started. But what is truly worrisome is 1) the CDC admitting that they're considering revising mask-wearing guidance for those vaccinated, and 2) the admission that they quit tracking "breakthrough cases" two months ago unless it involved a hospitalization or death. This would be quite a reversal, especially since many were led to believe getting vaccinated was the endgame. I think we can begin to connect the dots that this is not playing out in real time as the CDC was expecting.

                      Now, is that an unreasonable conclusion under the circumstances? Not really. You know what is unreasonable? Trying to hang the star of David on anyone unvaccinated like we're in 1930s Germany. I'm vaccinated myself, but this pisses me off. The same people doing it are the same ones who claim "My body, my choice" on another political issue, but no sense in discussing that. You get the point.

                      If anyone has thrown down the jump-to-conclusions mat too soon, it's the NFL. There is no basis whatsoever to enact this new rule. It's an unknown. And for some reason, that's too much to ask for too many people to admit these days. There's no harm in admitting that we're in uncharted waters and no one really knows.

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                      • Bolt-O
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                        #47
                        I didn't like the topic tile at the time, as it was old news. 90% now:


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                        • like54ninjas
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                          #48
                          Originally posted by Bolt-O View Post
                          I didn't like the topic tile at the time, as it was old news. 90% now:


                          Really good news.
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