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  • #13
    Originally posted by FoutsFan View Post

    So when the doctors admit they are lying does that constitute as a conspiracy?

    Dr. Brix said the death toll was inflated by at least 25%. The funny thing about the article you posted was the antidote is critical thinking. Yet with critical thinking it tells us that this does not add up.

    121,609 deaths 25% less is 91,207 deaths. Cuomo, Whitmore and a few other serial killer governors who sent infected elderly people to convalescent hospitals to kill them off counts for about 40% of deaths in America.So that would be 54,724 deaths which is not even a bad flu season.

    Again Critical thinking and knowledge, not fear porn from CNN or MSNBC tells us this was blown up terribly out of proportion. If we prosecute these serial killer governors it will set an example to future governors that you cannot try and kill off elderly populations just because you think they are a burden to your social services.

    Then the fact that no one said a peep about these rioters, anarchists and communists in the streets tells us again that the virus was blown out of proportion. If it was bad the politicians would have been screaming for these people to stop because of the Wuhan flu. Yet for some reason the Wuhan flu died instantly on contact with the rioters, anarchists and communists.

    See science and critical thinking tells us that the virus does not change due to the political climate yet we were told it did. Conspiracy theory? My ass, it was a scam from the get go. Not a hoax the Wuhan flu is real but it was a scam how we were played by our politicians.
    I don't watch those channels you mentioned. Most media is a business trying to sell a story. Im not partisian either. I usually avoid political media.

    My understanding of the protestors is there was big concern in the hospitals of a surge in cases. There was a lot of talk about it in our organization. And that did happen. We did get a surge. As far as how the citizens, media and law enforcement behave, things can be complex and im not sure what the answers are at times. I know the hospital wanted the protestors to mask up and stay 6 feet apart and some of them did that, which was good to see.

    0.1% thus in range of strong flu season. Why not list it as 0.14% which is a 40% stronger number. I think that article has an agenda. And yes still in range but over 100s of millions of Americans 40% more deaths than a strong flu season. Can be called in range? Yes it can...but it hits the hospitals and healthcare system hard. So it matters.

    Also Critical thinking imo says well that is a number with shutdown and masking. So... What is that number if no action was taken? If action has thus far limit it to a strong flu season per that article.

    Science always has opposition. There are people that still claim that earth is flat. The anti vaccers. In spite of the massive accomplishments in gaining knowledge and applying treatments that helped curb how bad and lethal so many deseases can be. They simply think its bad. And find the one off evidence of problems and say see, it is a hoax.

    So lets say the numbers are not as bad as listed but also aren't as close to just a strong flu season. They are a bit worse.

    The over reacting that your speaking about is in part because of the unknown of IFR which can't be really known for certain until after the desease has run its course. The whole effort is to curb it because it already showed like your pointing at.... to be like strong flu but it was new and unknown.
    Think about that.... non profit hospitals around the nation get on their radar a new virus that is at least as bad as a strong flu, and potentially much worse and a huge issue if you don't get out in front.

    Also im always on the side of transparency and limited government. Its way too big already.
    But this contact tracing thing. If you don't show up to hospital and test positive. Then how do they trace you and why? Certainly dont want goverment or anything to invade privacy. All citizen should be worried about things that could be misused by tbe powerful.

    I'm still going to mask up and wash hands.
    The hospital im at is having issues because of covid infections. That part is not some hoax. This is stressful on the personnel, logistics and the finances. Im asking people to help the community this year and mask and wash hands.

    People tend to find reasons of their own to not wear masks. Mostly because it has not impacted them, which is typical of how people behave. They change behavior when it finally matters to them.

    Comment


    • #14
      Originally posted by Critty View Post

      I don't watch those channels you mentioned. Most media is a business trying to sell a story. Im not partisian either. I usually avoid political media.

      My understanding of the protestors is there was big concern in the hospitals of a surge in cases. There was a lot of talk about it in our organization. And that did happen. We did get a surge. As far as how the citizens, media and law enforcement behave, things can be complex and im not sure what the answers are at times. I know the hospital wanted the protestors to mask up and stay 6 feet apart and some of them did that, which was good to see.

      0.1% thus in range of strong flu season. Why not list it as 0.14% which is a 40% stronger number. I think that article has an agenda. And yes still in range but over 100s of millions of Americans 40% more deaths than a strong flu season. Can be called in range? Yes it can...but it hits the hospitals and healthcare system hard. So it matters.

      Also Critical thinking imo says well that is a number with shutdown and masking. So... What is that number if no action was taken? If action has thus far limit it to a strong flu season per that article.

      Science always has opposition. There are people that still claim that earth is flat. The anti vaccers. In spite of the massive accomplishments in gaining knowledge and applying treatments that helped curb how bad and lethal so many deseases can be. They simply think its bad. And find the one off evidence of problems and say see, it is a hoax.

      So lets say the numbers are not as bad as listed but also aren't as close to just a strong flu season. They are a bit worse.

      The over reacting that your speaking about is in part because of the unknown of IFR which can't be really known for certain until after the desease has run its course. The whole effort is to curb it because it already showed like your pointing at.... to be like strong flu but it was new and unknown.
      Think about that.... non profit hospitals around the nation get on their radar a new virus that is at least as bad as a strong flu, and potentially much worse and a huge issue if you don't get out in front.

      Also im always on the side of transparency and limited government. Its way too big already.
      But this contact tracing thing. If you don't show up to hospital and test positive. Then how do they trace you and why? Certainly dont want goverment or anything to invade privacy. All citizen should be worried about things that could be misused by tbe powerful.

      I'm still going to mask up and wash hands.
      The hospital im at is having issues because of covid infections. That part is not some hoax. This is stressful on the personnel, logistics and the finances. Im asking people to help the community this year and mask and wash hands.

      People tend to find reasons of their own to not wear masks. Mostly because it has not impacted them, which is typical of how people behave. They change behavior when it finally matters to them.
      2018 flu deaths were 80,000, that was a bad year. We are seeing a spike in positivities due to the rioters which health care people (I was in the medical field in surgery for quite a while myself) cheered the rioters on and did not have a care in the world for Wuhan flu at that time. Regardless we are also serious spike due to Mexico. Lots of them coming here due to poor health care in Mexico as their wave is a couple of months behind ours. Yet Grusome blames people and their 1 year olds birthday parties. Again if you are really old with lots pre existing conditions it’s bad if not then it’s just being sick.

      Comment


      • #15
        A few takes:

        120k deaths in America sure
        4k deaths in China sure
        0 cases in N. Korea sure.

        All 3 of those stats are equally preposterous.

        2/3rds of New Yorkers infected got infected in lock down in their homes not going out.

        Hospitals are not overwhelmed, even in hotspot NYC they didn't need the U.S. Comfort ship.

        Million dollar added on wings were built and never used and taken down.

        Scientists have stated the current strain is weak so at this point who cares if you get the sniffles?

        I have been affected by the Chinese Virus. Family members have had it, one in their 70's and one in their 50's. Was on ventilator in coma for 2 weeks, given hydroxychloroquine fever went from 104 to 98 Both are fine now.

        Liberal Journalist Tim Pool with over 1M subscribers on YouTube has documented many things above.

        Let's move on to protests aka reasons to loot and riot:

        When did "racism" become the worst thing ever??

        I can name several things way worse that for some reason zero media coverage, zero "protests", zero riots, zero marches, etc.

        Why?!

        Let's name a few;

        1. Stealing from the elderly is worse. There are scammers wiping out seniors accounts. There are muggings. No media coverage.

        2. Pedophiles. Way, way worse, the thought of a grown man penetrating a one or two or three year old girl makes me want an instantaneous death penalty. No media coverage.

        3. Serial Killers. Beyond worse. Need to cover that 24/7, not "muh racism". No media coverage.

        My feelings can recover, my eaten body not so much.

        But the media wants every 4 years to have emotion drive the votes (per Candace Owens YouTube). There are bad police say one in a thousand, why isn't the media showing the 999 out of 1000 good ones non-stop?!

        Where was the coverage for Tony Timpa killed the same way? Duckduckgo.com him.

        Where was the coverage for Daniel Shavers who was begging for his life and anyone who has seen that video cried and says that was the worse one yet?

        Really need like a Elon Musk to purchase NBC & CNN and make them Conservative so there is only CBS & ABC vs. them and Fox 2 to 3 instead of 4 to 1 non-stop agenda driven lies.

        Comment


        • #16
          Originally posted by FoutsFan View Post

          2018 flu deaths were 80,000, that was a bad year. We are seeing a spike in positivities due to the rioters which health care people (I was in the medical field in surgery for quite a while myself) cheered the rioters on and did not have a care in the world for Wuhan flu at that time. Regardless we are also serious spike due to Mexico. Lots of them coming here due to poor health care in Mexico as their wave is a couple of months behind ours. Yet Grusome blames people and their 1 year olds birthday parties. Again if you are really old with lots pre existing conditions it’s bad if not then it’s just being sick.
          Well.. There is some self interest for politicans to help voters or the whomever they pander to. One of the biggest voting blocks is the AARP. And they are in the higher risk pool. So..... A lot of moving parts influencing decisions.
          The hospitals is concerned for good reason when a new virus shows up and they need to figure out how to handle it.

          would you suggest nothing needed to be done?
          no modifications at all?


          Comment


          • #17
            Originally posted by Critty View Post

            Well.. There is some self interest for politicans to help voters or the whomever they pander to. One of the biggest voting blocks is the AARP. And they are in the higher risk pool. So..... A lot of moving parts influencing decisions.
            The hospitals is concerned for good reason when a new virus shows up and they need to figure out how to handle it.

            would you suggest nothing needed to be done?
            no modifications at all?

            Not at all. I would have protected the elderly especially in old folks homes instead of forcing the sick into the homes like Cuomo and others did. Much like they did in Florida. I would not keep the schools closed anymore now that we know this does not really bother young people and that young people do not spread it either. My problem is not with the initial reaction it’s that as we have learned more and more about the Wuhan flu we still act as though we have no real info like it was mid to late January. We should be modifying the guidelines based on science not fear. At first it was fear of the unknown now it’s all about fear and control due to it being an election year.

            Also once you attached a big financial incentive on to the Wuhan flu you knew that the cases would not be accurate in the slightest as well as the death count.

            Comment


            • #18
              Originally posted by FoutsFan View Post

              Not at all. I would have protected the elderly especially in old folks homes instead of forcing the sick into the homes like Cuomo and others did. Much like they did in Florida. I would not keep the schools closed anymore now that we know this does not really bother young people and that young people do not spread it either. My problem is not with the initial reaction it’s that as we have learned more and more about the Wuhan flu we still act as though we have no real info like it was mid to late January. We should be modifying the guidelines based on science not fear. At first it was fear of the unknown now it’s all about fear and control due to it being an election year.

              Also once you attached a big financial incentive on to the Wuhan flu you knew that the cases would not be accurate in the slightest as well as the death count.
              It would be nice for much more science based thinking to be leading the decisions.

              Fear and Money are great motivators.
              Been that way for 1000s of years.

              As far as kids not spreading it. That is simply not true. That info came from a study that said 60% of parents who had kids infected also were infected. And only 7% If They kid was not infected. They said it suggested parents were infecting the kids. They also pointed out that another study contradicts these findings. So this is very questionable.
              This does not translate into now that we know kids do not spread it.

              As of right now there is no strong epidemiological reason or definitive study or evidence that should lead anyone to believe that children don't get infected and are not contagious to spread it.

              Comment


              • #19
                Originally posted by Critty View Post

                It would be nice for much more science based thinking to be leading the decisions.

                Fear and Money are great motivators.
                Been that way for 1000s of years.

                As far as kids not spreading it. That is simply not true. That info came from a study that said 60% of parents who had kids infected also were infected. And only 7% If They kid was not infected. They said it suggested parents were infecting the kids. They also pointed out that another study contradicts these findings. So this is very questionable.
                This does not translate into now that we know kids do not spread it.

                As of right now there is no strong epidemiological reason or definitive study or evidence that should lead anyone to believe that children don't get infected and are not contagious to spread it.

                The CDC death rates show that kids just are not affected like adults. That is not to say that zero kids get it but they just are not as likely to get it, spread it or die from it.

                9 deaths out of a total of 6504 deaths for kids under 1. 14 years and under the amount of deaths is paltry compared to all others.
                Date Sex age covid total deaths
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All Under 1 year 9 6,504
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All 1-4 years 6 1,259
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All 5-14 years 13 1,859
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All 15-24 years 132 11,608
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All 25-34 years 732 24,675
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All 35-44 years 1,860 35,202
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All 45-54 years 5,238 66,547
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All 55-64 years 12,895 155,823
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All 65-74 years 22,429 239,025
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All 75-84 years 28,735 296,558
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All 85 years and over 35,948 376,456
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States All All Ages 107,997 1,215,516
                06/24/2020 02/01/2020 06/20/2020 United States Male Under 1 year 5 3,643
                https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...nd-S/9bhg-hcku


                Kids and Covid-19 illness

                I’ve already covered kids and Covid-19 a lot and noted that they do not seem to get very sick. There is a Chinese study saying this, there is data from the CDC, and there’s more data from the Netherlands and Italy. Basically, we are pretty clear at this point that serious Covid-related illness is just really, really rare in children.
                Kids and viral spread

                More complicated is the question of whether kids are viral spreaders. One possible view is that, actually, many kids are infected but they just do not have serious infection. But, of course, they could infect others. So when you get kids together, they’ll spread the virus without you knowing it, and then go home to infect parents, grandparents, and others. I like to call this the “asymptomatic viral bomb theory.”

                Another view is that kids are very unlikely to contract the virus at all, and perhaps because their symptoms are mostly mild, they are also unlikely to spread it.

                We are uncertain about this because of limited data. And it is clear that kids can spread the virus. There is work, for example, showing that children who are infected have viral loads similar to adults.

                But, increasingly, the data points to the second view above: that children are not being an important source of viral spread, largely because they are simply not very likely to be infected.

                That data takes largely two forms. First, evidence on the overall risk of infection in kids (not how serious it is, but prevalence). And, second, evidence on whether kids are frequently the source of infection for other people. (In technical terms, are they the “index cases.”)

                Let’s start with the first. The key question is whether kids are less likely to be infected than adults. From the data on cases in China and elsewhere, we know they are less likely to be seriously ill. But that’s not the same thing as not being infected. To figure out if they are less likely to be infected, we need to look at a population overall and either test everyone or a random sample of people. If we do that, we can learn what the infection rate is in kids. (Random sample testing is really important!)

                There are a few studies like this. One early one was in Iceland. Researchers there tested about 13,000 random people, including 848 kids. Among the whole population, 0.8% of people (so, almost 1%) tested positive for Covid-19. Among children under 10, though, there wereno positive cases. This difference was very unlikely to occur by chance.

                Data from a single town in Italy which did very widespread screening shows basically the same thing. Kids are much less likely than older people to be infected at all.

                It’s not quite as good, since it’s not a random sample, but data from the Netherlands shows that among people who visited their doctor with flu-like complaints over the course of the epidemic, 6.5% of them tested positive for Covid-19. This was as high as 30% in some weeks. However, they detected no cases in people under 20. When kids came in complaining of flu-like symptoms they… had the flu. Not Covid-19.

                These three pieces of data suggest that it is not just that kids don’t get seriously ill, but also that they are unlikely to be infected. This is inconsistent with the kids-as-walking-virus-bomb theory.

                The other way to understand this is to look directly at whether kids seem to be spreading infection. How? There are a couple of options. One is you could look at cases where a child was known to be infected and see if they seem to spread the virus. Another is you could look in affected groups (say, families) and try to figure out whether kids are often the ones who introduce the virus.

                (A third option would be to see what happens when you reopen schools, if that is a big source of infection — we’ll probably see studies like this, but schools are only just starting to reopen in Europe so we do not have that yet).

                There isn’t a ton of research on this yet, but where we have it, it again downplays the role of children. In one case, very early in the epidemic, researchers identified a set of cases in the French Alps (all linked to one set of travelers) and the cases included one kid. During the infected period, this kid visited three different schools (it is completely unclear to me why) and had 112 school contacts. None of these contacts were infected.

                Obviously this is a single example, but it is worth noting that in the case of adults we have a number of examples (such as the Biogen conference in Boston, some family gatherings in Chicago, one epic party in Westport, Connecticut) where one infected adult spread the virus very widely.

                Although it is not yet peer-reviewed, data from Australia is showing similar patterns. In those data, 18 people (nine adults and nine kids) had Covid-19 and were in school contact with others (735 other students and 128 other staff). No staff or teachers developed Covid-19. One primary school and one high school student may contacted Covid-19 from these initial cases. This represents a very low spread rate.

                Finally, researchers in the Netherlands have also been shedding light on this. They’ve been following families — preliminary data has 54 families with 239 people — and looking at infections. They have so far found no cases in which the child was the first one in a family to be infected.
                The bottom line


                Some people have taken the above data to mean “kids cannot spread Covid-19.” This is not right. In principle, they can. They have viral loads, just like adults. Viruses do not know they are carried by kids! If a kid is infected with Covid-19 and they put their hand in their mouth and then they put it in your mouth, there is no reason to think you couldn’t get the virus. (Not that you necessarily would, but that you could.)

                However, in practice it seems that infection among kids is simply very unlikely. It’s not that they are infected and don’t know it, it seems like they are just not infected very often. And when they are, it may be that the mild symptoms limit their viral spreading (like with the kid in the French example).

                What does this mean for policy, and for families? Opening schools and daycares and camps (PLEASE!!!) is still very complicated since these all involve congregations of adults. But on the plus side, these results indicate that in those contexts, our primary concern should be adult-to-adult transmission, which may be easier to limit.

                For families, I think it’s even more helpful. I know many of us are spending a lot of time worrying about spreading the virus from kids to grandparents. The data doesn’t go so far as to say that can’t happen or we shouldn’t be careful, but it dials that down a lot, in my mind at least. This is, in the end, a personal decision for all of us. Good luck with yours.
                https://elemental.medium.com/can-kid...s-c9934a8e1f02

                Comment


                • #20
                  Originally posted by FoutsFan View Post
                  The CDC death rates show that kids just are not affected like adults. That is not to say that zero kids get it but they just are not as likely to get it, spread it or die from it.

                  Dude. Slow down. You are switching up points here.
                  Kids are not as harshly affected. That is true. I agree with you there.The numbers speak to that. You were at kids do not spread it which I disputed because that simply is not true on how viruses spread. Kids certainly can be vectors for spreading it even if they are not high risk for complications. Those are 2 different things. You do not have to convince me who is higher risk and lower risk.

                  The main point is we have a new and serious virus that is sending those in the risk pool who catch it to the icu. Bottom line.....i think most people would probably pefer grandma and grandpa dont die this year.

                  And when you are masking up and washing hands, you are saying, i dont want to spread this thing and have people lose their life because i dont care to help curb this new virus. So I will help.

                  Or you can say screw you. Survival of the fittest. Im good. Im not masking up or washing hands. I dont care if I catch it and spread it because it is being blown out of proportion.

                  We all get to decide how we chose to respond and help or whatever.

                  Good luck.

                  Comment


                  • #21
                    Originally posted by Critty View Post


                    Dude. Slow down. You are switching up points here.
                    Kids are not as harshly affected. That is true. I agree with you there.The numbers speak to that. You were at kids do not spread it which I disputed because that simply is not true on how viruses spread. Kids certainly can be vectors for spreading it even if they are not high risk for complications. Those are 2 different things. You do not have to convince me who is higher risk and lower risk.

                    The main point is we have a new and serious virus that is sending those in the risk pool who catch it to the icu. Bottom line.....i think most people would probably pefer grandma and grandpa dont die this year.

                    And when you are masking up and washing hands, you are saying, i dont want to spread this thing and have people lose their life because i dont care to help curb this new virus. So I will help.

                    Or you can say screw you. Survival of the fittest. Im good. Im not masking up or washing hands. I dont care if I catch it and spread it because it is being blown out of proportion.

                    We all get to decide how we chose to respond and help or whatever.

                    Good luck.
                    Ok no one is saying don’t wash your hands. That is universally accepted. But you didn’t even read the other studies that show kids just do not spread it like adults. That is why most European schools are reopening including Italy and other countries that have been hit hard. Just because we do not fully understand why does not mean that it is not true.

                    We need to change and evolve our thinking as new data and info comes in. We should not stick to February understandings of the virus and ignore new understanding.

                    Comment


                    • #22
                      Originally posted by FoutsFan View Post

                      Ok no one is saying don’t wash your hands. That is universally accepted. But you didn’t even read the other studies that show kids just do not spread it like adults. That is why most European schools are reopening including Italy and other countries that have been hit hard. Just because we do not fully understand why does not mean that it is not true.

                      We need to change and evolve our thinking as new data and info comes in. We should not stick to February understandings of the virus and ignore new understanding.
                      Your statement went from kids do not spread it.
                      To
                      Kids do not spread it like adults or get affected like adults. That appears to be true but The science is still trying to figure out why the younger population is less affected at this point.

                      My suspicion based on year after year of common cold and flu where kids spread it so easily to each other........ is if and when they can do antibody testing of these kids...they might find out that many of these kids already had it back in November, December when reports were the flu was really bad and hitting kids hard. I think they may have misunderstood what some of these kids were sick with. Because the timing is so crazy........kids get hit really hard by illness in November December? Are we sure it was the flu in all of these cases?

                      It would make more sense to me, if reports came out and said.....oops...there was a 1st wave that went through the young before the adults ended up in the hospital. That's why they are not getting it so easily .....many of them already had it.

                      i may be wrong about my guess there but what I mean is.......i would not be surprised at all if that ended up being part of the story. That many kids already had it.

                      Comment


                      • #23
                        Originally posted by Critty View Post

                        Your statement went from kids do not spread it.
                        To
                        Kids do not spread it like adults or get affected like adults. That appears to be true but The science is still trying to figure out why the younger population is less affected at this point.

                        My suspicion based on year after year of common cold and flu where kids spread it so easily to each other........ is if and when they can do antibody testing of these kids...they might find out that many of these kids already had it back in November, December when reports were the flu was really bad and hitting kids hard. I think they may have misunderstood what some of these kids were sick with. Because the timing is so crazy........kids get hit really hard by illness in November December? Are we sure it was the flu in all of these cases?

                        It would make more sense to me, if reports came out and said.....oops...there was a 1st wave that went through the young before the adults ended up in the hospital. That's why they are not getting it so easily .....many of them already had it.

                        i may be wrong about my guess there but what I mean is.......i would not be surprised at all if that ended up being part of the story. That many kids already had it.
                        When I said kids do not spread it I should put a caveat in there that it is minuscule compared to adults. I was not trying to say they cannot but they for the most part do not. They are not the "super spreaders" that we were told. Research is showing us that kids very rarely even show symptoms, even mild ones. Look at Polio it was the exact opposite. It hit young people under 5 hard but it did not affect adults in the same way. We did not tell all adults to stay home and hide under their beds in fear. Why is it so hard for people to accept that a virus could function in the opposite direction? Why do people fear science and data so much they are willing to ignore it to pursue a political or ideological agenda?

                        Comment


                        • #24
                          Originally posted by FoutsFan View Post

                          When I said kids do not spread it I should put a caveat in there that it is minuscule compared to adults. I was not trying to say they cannot but they for the most part do not. They are not the "super spreaders" that we were told. Research is showing us that kids very rarely even show symptoms, even mild ones. Look at Polio it was the exact opposite. It hit young people under 5 hard but it did not affect adults in the same way. We did not tell all adults to stay home and hide under their beds in fear. Why is it so hard for people to accept that a virus could function in the opposite direction? Why do people fear science and data so much they are willing to ignore it to pursue a political or ideological agenda?
                          You can give them all the hard data you want, and they will just keep repeating the same rhetoric until election day without questioning or verifying anything. Sadly many folks are either too lazy to do their own research and question the MSM, or they just don't care because they don't want to be shown otherwise.

                          It's been known for a while now that kids rarely spread the virus. Quite a few countries in Europe understand that and have had their schools open for a while now with no issue.

                          Alex Berenson has been digging into the data on his Twitter feed for months now.

                          Also, today, this tidbit from Rand Paul mentioning about other countries and schools.
                          https://mobile.twitter.com/DailyCall...93516203937793

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