Tweet
Wednesday night wasn't a great one on the diamond. The Astros were able to grind out a win in Miami, but, unfortunately, both pitching props fell short. After a 1-2 showing, our weekly record now sits at 5-3.We'll look to get back on track with three bets for Thursday's card.Tigers (-135) @ Guardians (+115)The Tigers are quietly playing solid baseball, particularly on offense. They're sporting a .351 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching over the past 15 days, which is higher than teams like the Dodgers and Padres - and one of the better marks in the league.There's every reason to believe the offense will keep producing Thursday night in Cleveland. They have a date with Xzavion Curry, who has looked very exploitable.Curry's strike rate is 5% below league average over the past month. Opponents are making very good contact against him as well, posting a barrel rate of 12% and a xwOBA of .351.Right-handed batters are what give Curry the most problems, and the Tigers have some good ones in Matt Vierling and the red-hot Spencer Torkelson.This is a good matchup for the Tigers to continue making noise at the dish, something the Guardians haven't shown the ability to do without Josh Naylor.They've looked completely lost since he left the lineup. The Guardians are hitting just .227 and rank dead last in runs scored this month.Believe it or not, their numbers are drastically worse against lefties. They're hitting .165 and own an OBP of .205 versus left-handed pitchers in August.Tarik Skubal has given up some runs since returning, but all his underlying metrics look pretty strong. He should have his way with this horrendous Guardians attack and put the Tigers in a strong position to get another win.Bet: Tigers -135 (playable to -145)Rich Hill under 4.5 strikeoutsHill is the definition of ice-cold. He's registered four strikeouts or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts, including six of the last seven.It's not that Hill can't hit the strike zone. His strike rate over the past month is directly in line with that of tonight's counterpart, Zac Gallen. The difference is Hill can't miss bats.He owns a 6.2% swinging strike rate in the last 30 days, which is nearly five full percentage points below the league average in that span.That's not going to serve him well going up against the Diamondbacks. They've gone through their fair share of struggles at the dish of late, but one thing they've excelled at - especially versus lefties - is avoiding strikeouts.In fact, the Padres are the only team in the league with a lower K rate against left-handed pitching over the past month.With Hill owning a subpar punchout rate (18%) in that span and the Diamondbacks striking out even less than that (16.3%), I think this is a good spot to target the under.Odds: -130 (playable to -145)Brandon Nimmo over 1.5 total basesNimmo is heating up at the dish. He's gone over his total bases number in four of the past five games, piling up 16 total bases in that span.He should be able to pick up where he left off against Adam Wainwright. The veteran righty has enjoyed a great career, but he's limping to the finish line, to say the least.Wainwright owns a ridiculous 8.78 ERA, and his WHIP sits over two. If the Cardinals were playing meaningful games and not just letting Wainwright leave the sport on his own terms, he wouldn't be on the roster. He's performed that badly.Wainwright has fared especially poorly against lefties, allowing a batting average above .400. Nimmo is a tough guy to keep off the bases for any pitcher. Don't be surprised if he puts forth a multi-hit game in this spot, although it would only take one good swing to get him over the number.Odds: -115 (playable to -125)Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
More...
More...