Welcome JT Woods, DB, Baylor (R3, #79)

[blueman]

Man-love, it’s a powerful thing.

[powderblueboy]

A semi-thorough draft analysis would be evaluating 300 players?

Each player would take 6 hours minimum to properly analyze abilities, including discussions with colleagues?

That is roughly 2000 hours of evaluation?

For one thoroughly committed, one can allocate 10 hours of film study & discussion per day..... it will take around 200 days?

College football begins in late August...which gives you 7 months to prepare your draft board.

This is what pro scouts do......not including travel time, seeing players live and in practice, talking to coaching staffs, organizational meetings,
preparing reports for superiors and making love to their wives.

Of course, unlike a Lance Zierlen, they are assigned to various regions, so the amount of players they evaluate is drastically reduced...but not the time they spend.

[powderblueboy]

That was never what my statement meant and you know it. When a consensus suggests that a player has a late 4th round value, that suggests that the GM may be wrong if he uses a mid 3rd round pick on the player. That means lots of folks have Woods as worse than #137 overall. Nothing more is necessary.

I continue to disagree with your takes as to Anderson versus Woods.

Are we even speaking the same language?

Your 'statement' was that Telesco's decision to select Woods was ill advised (an error) because Woods
fell out of the 3rd round range as established by 'the consensus'.

Here it is, and the purpose for emboldening it in your original message was to direct you or anyone else towards it:

"My point is that when a whole bunch of people with some degree of experience in assessing players suggest that a GM is wrong, the GM just might factor that into his decision making when he considers selecting a player in that player's early outlier range and consider taking that player a little bit later."

The rest of your bit, including the part of the hour you spent on watching Anderson/Woods was of no interest to me: hence, the lack of highlighting.
You've spent far more time typing about Anderson/Woods than actually studying their tape.

Now, once again having to repeat myself because your purposeful ability to misunderstand a central point is legendary:

Can you refer us to a former db or coach who opined about the respective abilities of Woods and Anderson? Most here
feel that your 'consensus' is invalid, because it is composed of people who have never played/coached the position,
are not familiar with the nuances involved, and have spent a questionable amount of time in actually evaluating the player.
We are not satisfied with one more recitation about the sanctity of 'the consensus', as if one last time will finally put us into a compliant trance.

This will go a long ways towards convincing people here...which is your purpose, no?

The part about Telesco not valuing the opinion of others outside of the organization is also of questionable value, but i'll leave that for another time.

[Xenos]

Also, teams typically do NOT have 32 1st Rd graded players.
Often it is 15-20 range.
So after the 20th pick teams are beginning to draft from a pool of their 2nd round rated players.

And then again after 40-45 they may be into their 3rd Rd rated cluster of prospects.

That how you get Patriots taking Cole Strange at #29.
The top OG remaining on their board, 2nd Rd grade. All their Rd1 graded players were selected. So they took the player they like best from their remaining 2nd Rd rated players.

And it gets called a reach because pundits had other players rated ahead of him sequentially.
But from what I know and heard of how NFL teams rank players. They tend to group them by talent level, round and range. They dont go sequentially and put Cole Strange exactly at #35 of all players. They go blue chip top 5 are these guys.. Then next 10-15 top players are 1st Rd grade. The next 25 are 2nd Rd grade. And where do these players fit as PON and scheme. Who in these clusters do we really like for what we do? And then they select that target at #29. A player with all the traits to be a very good IOL in the NFL. And top OL remaining on their board. And pundits go whoa...reach. I thought good pick, as I think he is will be a solid starting OG sooner than later.

On a completely different side note, did you catch Telesco break down the Draft Day movie? It’s actually surprising insightful.

[Xenos]

So I guess we should have drafted Isaiah Spiller in the third, Jamaree Salyer in the fourth, and hoped J.T. Woods was there in the fifth. And we really blew it in the seventh round with that Zander Horvath pick.

That’s what I said in the draft thread! Lol

[Critty]

Player/Consensus/Actual

Malik Willis/14/86
Nakobe Dean/31/83
Matt Coral/39/94
Travis Jones/47/76
Sam Howell/48/144
Daniel Faalele/62/110
Isaiah Spiller/64/123
Darrian Kinnard/66/145
Jamaree Salyer/73/195
Carson Strong/91/Undrafted
Rasheed Walker/104/249
Mario Goodrich/130/Undrafted
Verone McKinley/132/Undrafted
Kellen Deitch/147/Undrafted
Haskell Garrett/164/Undrafted
***These guys were either steals or the consensus was way off on their evals.

Jonathan Ford/428/234
Teagan Quitoriano/389/170
Zander Horvath/366/260
Luke Wattenberg/314/171
Michael Woods/311/202
Damarion Williams/250/141
Jack Jones/247/121
Cordell Volson/204/136
Cordale Flott/194/81
Dane Belton/191/114
Erik Ezukanma/180/125
Neil Farrell/174/126
Logan Brus/169/104
Terrell Bernard/157/89
Velus Jones/152/71
JT Woods/137/79
Danny Gray/135/105
Bryan Cook/96/62
***These guys were either drafted 1 round too early (in some cases more than 200 spots before)... or the consensus was again way off their evals. 90% of these guys were on my radar as being much better than they were getting credit for... and I mocked almost every one of these guys numerous times.

Also, teams typically do NOT have 32 1st Rd graded players.
Often it is 15-20 range.
So after the 20th pick teams are beginning to draft from a pool of their 2nd round rated players.

And then again after 40-45 they may be into their 3rd Rd rated cluster of prospects.

That how you get Patriots taking Cole Strange at #29.
The top OG remaining on their board, 2nd Rd grade. All their Rd1 graded players were selected. So they took the player they like best from their remaining 2nd Rd rated players.

And it gets called a reach because pundits had other players rated ahead of him sequentially.
But from what I know and heard of how NFL teams rank players. They tend to group them by talent level, round and range. They dont go sequentially and put Cole Strange exactly at #35 of all players. They go blue chip top 5 are these guys.. Then next 10-15 top players are 1st Rd grade. The next 25 are 2nd Rd grade. And where do these players fit as PON and scheme. Who in these clusters do we really like for what we do? And then they select that target at #29. A player with all the traits to be a very good IOL in the NFL. And top OL remaining on their board. And pundits go whoa...reach. I thought good pick, as I think he is will be a solid starting OG sooner than later.

[DerwinBosa]

Player/Consensus/Actual

Malik Willis/14/86
Nakobe Dean/31/83
Matt Coral/39/94
Travis Jones/47/76
Sam Howell/48/144
Daniel Faalele/62/110
Isaiah Spiller/64/123
Darrian Kinnard/66/145
Jamaree Salyer/73/195
Carson Strong/91/Undrafted
Rasheed Walker/104/249
Mario Goodrich/130/Undrafted
Verone McKinley/132/Undrafted
Kellen Deitch/147/Undrafted
Haskell Garrett/164/Undrafted
***These guys were either steals or the consensus was way off on their evals.

Jonathan Ford/428/234
Teagan Quitoriano/389/170
Zander Horvath/366/260
Luke Wattenberg/314/171
Michael Woods/311/202
Damarion Williams/250/141
Jack Jones/247/121
Cordell Volson/204/136
Cordale Flott/194/81
Dane Belton/191/114
Erik Ezukanma/180/125
Neil Farrell/174/126
Logan Brus/169/104
Terrell Bernard/157/89
Velus Jones/152/71
JT Woods/137/79
Danny Gray/135/105
Bryan Cook/96/62
***These guys were either drafted 1 round too early (in some cases more than 200 spots before)... or the consensus was again way off their evals. 90% of these guys were on my radar as being much better than they were getting credit for... and I mocked almost every one of these guys numerous times.

So I guess we should have drafted Isaiah Spiller in the third, Jamaree Salyer in the fourth, and hoped J.T. Woods was there in the fifth. And we really blew it in the seventh round with that Zander Horvath pick.

[dmac_bolt]

You mentioning Jones in same sentence as Donald is absurd.
And saying you would take a previous #13 overall who is best defensive player in game and who played a god like amount of snaps of 90% last year. B.Willams who played the spot for Ravens that Jones will play at NT. He is the comparison...are you taking him over Adderley and Woods for the Chargers defensive scheme. And trading away a 4th to do it. Come on dude stay on track here......Aaron Donald is your way out of this failing argument .....Wow..... Ridiculous.

You are over the waterfall in your canoe when you are pulling in the best defensive player in game a future 1st ballot ball of famer to attempt an counter argument. Good luck with that.

I don't know who the better player will be yet. They were both 3rd rd picks. They both have to prove what the can do on the next level.

Woods maybe very we'll be the starter in 2023 as Adderley is in his final year of contract. And I specifically mentioned both players and snaps count as rookies and then in 2023 as starters. And saying your getting many more snaps out of Woods/Spiller vs Jones. Also mentioned that teams do indeed use their own boards and will indeed be on the high or low side vs consensus and use their own board. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder here. And for Stalesco they got a very valuable player and your take about consensus amounts to a hill of beans and nothing more in terms of LAC following their draft board and their plan. They don't draft per consensus board, they draft per their own board. Why in the heck would they do all this preparation to create their board and then use consensus to make decisions on who to draft. Only a fool would suggest such a thing.

Aaron Donald.
:LOL:

If we’re all going on the record, I would take Aaron Donald over JT too. Is this a test?

[RockyMtnBoltFan]

Wait…does this mean that other teams didn’t draft exactly according to the consensus board rankings!?!? LOL

[Boltnut]

Player/Consensus/Actual

Malik Willis/14/86
Nakobe Dean/31/83
Matt Coral/39/94
Travis Jones/47/76
Sam Howell/48/144
Daniel Faalele/62/110
Isaiah Spiller/64/123
Darrian Kinnard/66/145
Jamaree Salyer/73/195
Carson Strong/91/Undrafted
Rasheed Walker/104/249
Mario Goodrich/130/Undrafted
Verone McKinley/132/Undrafted
Kellen Deitch/147/Undrafted
Haskell Garrett/164/Undrafted
***These guys were either steals or the consensus was way off on their evals.

Jonathan Ford/428/234
Teagan Quitoriano/389/170
Zander Horvath/366/260
Luke Wattenberg/314/171
Michael Woods/311/202
Damarion Williams/250/141
Jack Jones/247/121
Cordell Volson/204/136
Cordale Flott/194/81
Dane Belton/191/114
Erik Ezukanma/180/125
Neil Farrell/174/126
Logan Brus/169/104
Terrell Bernard/157/89
Velus Jones/152/71
JT Woods/137/79
Danny Gray/135/105
Bryan Cook/96/62
***These guys were either drafted 1 round too early (in some cases more than 200 spots before)... or the consensus was again way off their evals. 90% of these guys were on my radar as being much better than they were getting credit for... and I mocked almost every one of these guys numerous times.

[Critty]

There is a thing called a consensus big board. It really does exist. And it really does highlight selections that are against the great weight of published opinion.

I may not have a reason to prefer the opinion of one person to Telesco. I very well may have a reason to prefer the opinion of many pundits versus Telesco. The large majority may be wrong and Telesco may be right, but most of the time the opposite will be true where their opinions diverge to a large degree.

Recognized reaches are usually not looked upon favorably. To eliminate obvious bias, just consider the Raiders and Leatherwood at #17 overall. The pick was nearly universally criticized. Why? Because the vast majority of public opinion out there was that Leatherwood was not worth #17 overall. Most non-public evaluators agreed with that conclusion as well, including some on this forum.

I am applying the same analysis to the Woods pick.

Jones was not on the board. So Chargers could not take him.

You are claiming you Woods trade up because big board consensus had Jones as the higher ranked player.

And you are claiming they didn't get good value with the Woods selection.

Let say LAC tried and You had no takers on your move up for Travis "Aaron Donald" Jones.......so who do you pick at #79?

[RockyMtnBoltFan]

In other posts, I have made it clear that value is always as to a PON, so your Ridder example is inapplicable, but I agree with the implication of your point that taking a QB in that slot may be unwarranted.

I understand that our team has gone through its analysis. So has the consensus. By the consensus, we reached more than one round, which is why I do not like the approach.

I already do not have great confidence Adderley. I have less in Woods. As I have stated already, I like Woods as sub, but if this position is so critical for our defense, we should have chosen or signed a better player.

Also, you are conflating fit and value. We always want players who fit, but we should always take them in their appropriate value range. The value of consensus big boards is that they make it clear that lots and lots of folks have an opinion that the player in question is way worse than the GM believes. A GM is absolutely free to ignore that view, but I think it is foolish not to at least consider what they are saying. A bunch of the pundits either have an NFL background, years of experience in evaluating players, or both. The lack of respect they are being given versus Telesco by some on this forum is mind boggling.

No knowledgeable Charger fan could possibly have the opinion that Telesco is "the Bible" (to borrow from you) when it comes to talent evaluation and drafting players. Telesco's draft history in the third round reads as a "WTF festival" to the point that I think a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a draft board with consensus appropriate players on it could do better.

I have never suggested that the team is not making every pick from the perspective of adding the most impact to the team. I am sure that is how they set up their draft board and I am sure that when they make a pick, they think they are right. However, I think there is indicia that they may not actually be right in this instance.

the Ridder example was just to make the simple point that nobody in their right mind would be tightly bound to the consensus big board. There are
many other variables to consider.

Also, I don’t think Telesco’s view is the Bible either and he deserves plenty of criticism for his 3rd round picks over the years. However, another variable that is important to consider is that he appears to genuinely collaborate with his head coaches and give them a significant voice in the process and selections. For example, it seems like the Kenneth Murray trade up had a lot to do with Anthony Lynn. The past 2 drafts (and free agency) have Brandon Staley’s fingerprints all over them. It’s important to get the players that your coaches want and believe in…and I guarantee their war room didn’t just sit there and say JT is our guy, turn in the pick. It’s always a fluid situation. There are multiple players in the cluster for consideration, they debate the possible picks and then make the call. I also think it’s fair to point out that the majority of 3rd round picks NEVER become even serviceable starters in the NFL and JT might not either, but I certainly understand their thinking and explanations around why he was the selection. For what it’s worth the Palmer pick looks pretty damn good a year removed and McKitty shows some promise…we’ll see how he develops.

I choose to be an optimist on this one and put a little faith in Staley. I really like most of what he has done since getting the job.