Welcome JT Woods, DB, Baylor (R3, #79)

[wu-dai clan]

Good posts, Tex, pbb.

[powderblueboy]

This seems very likely. Which was incubated by Houston which passed on choice of top two OT’s for CB coming off career threatening injury. So they put themselves into position of first team to select OG or best offensive linemen available. Chargers should have had both Guards available and hence more flexibility to trade down but only marginally.

I paraphrased Telesco's sentiments directly from an interview with Irish NFL: none of it is my speculation on the matter.
Telesco was expecting Green to be available at #17: he says that he was surprised when Houston made the selection.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nGxmztj5xo

note: beware, one of the Irish reporters is a Raider fan.

[TexanBeerlover]

A reach in what sense? Telesco has said that he considered moving down from #17, but once Green was chosen by Houston, there were some guard hungry teams and he didn't want to risk missing out on Zion. In that sense, it wasn't a reach.

This seems very likely. Which was incubated by Houston which passed on choice of top two OT’s for CB coming off career threatening injury. So they put themselves into position of first team to select OG or best offensive linemen available. Chargers should have had both Guards available and hence more flexibility to trade down but only marginally. Green was also my 1A. Bit Zion was also, 1b.

n the sense that low priority players seldom have their contracts extended? I get it; but the next five window years were of the upmost consideration.

Low priority positions being safety,rb, interior Oline, inside linebacker, DT, tight end: so you would never draft any of those positions in the first round?

Just drafting edge rusher, corner, OT, qb, wr there is something no team practices.

Bottom line BPA is not limited to any particular position, each is unique and individual. Best Fit, Best Available, Biggest Need, would be hard to argue with fixing right side of offensive line. Hence Zion was the right selection.

Don’t know or care to count the number of posts that do not include adding a premier edge rusher/run stopper out of that 2nd rd pick. Certainly a top 3 need as well. Any legitimate draft calculus should include Mack in their equation.

Unlocking Derwin James with a mid third rd. pick are you kidding me? Don’t even start to make argument against that whole concept. It’s a puzzle of coaching, analytics, personalities, speed and ball hawking.

[powderblueboy]

PS. Zion was a reach at 17 too. And based upon The Athletic’s study on the 5th year option, it is highly unlikely the Bolts will use it on him. Players at low priority positions rarely have their 5th year options exercised.

A reach in what sense? Telesco has said that he considered moving down from #17, but once Green was chosen by Houston, there were some guard hungry teams and he didn't want to risk missing out on Zion. In that sense, it wasn't a reach.

In the sense that low priority players seldom have their contracts extended? I get it; but the next five window years were of the upmost consideration.

Low priority positions being safety,rb, interior Oline, inside linebacker, DT, tight end: so you would never draft any of those positions in the first round?

Just drafting edge rusher, corner, OT, qb, wr there is something no team practices.

[Xenos]

PS. Zion was a reach at 17 too. And based upon The Athletic’s study on the 5th year option, it is highly unlikely the Bolts will use it on him. Players at low priority positions rarely have their 5th year options exercised.

If he becomes a dominant player and a stalwart at RG, they’ll exercise it. Safety was once considered a low priority position also but we optioned Derwin without thinking.

[wu-dai clan]

May...June...when the posts keep getting better and better...

[dmac_bolt]

Jones will probably be better than any of our DTs by next year. Everyone seems to think we made these great improvements on our DL. PFF suggests that the improvements made were actually pretty marginal. Yes, they are better run defenders than the combination of Justin Jones and Linval Joseph, but it is not like either Johnson or SJD is the second coming of Jamal Williams. In fact, they are nowhere close.

The consensus big board I have been citing had Jones at #44 overall. The Athletic's consensus big board had Jones even higher at #40 overall. When a team gets a chance to get a player like that in round 3, it is an easy choice.

It is not a knock on Woods that a clearly better player was on the board. And just like we were not looking at certain safeties, many other teams were not looking at Woods. The odds strongly favored him being still on the board at #123.

You need to change your screen name from chaincrusher to brainbasher. You don’t know you’ve posted this same opinion 50 times? In complete seriousness - what the fuck is wrong with you?

you have zero idea he would be on the board. There in fact was a run on safeties that was NOT recognized in your coveted consensus board. The board was already wrong when they picked. The Chargers were not drafting for 2 or 3 years out in Rd3, they were drafting for 2022 All In. They think JT can play a role this year. We do not need another DT this year nearly as much as we need a 2nd ball hawking back end safety to allow Staley to implement his vision.

You have an opinion. Your opinion has been noted, noted, noted and noted again. And again. And again. Move on already.

[RockyMtnBoltFan]

Even if your unrealistic and lame example somehow did exist in reality, it would still mean that half of the pundits viewed that player as being substantially worse than a GM that has the player ranked in the early outlier range. It still suggests a significant likelihood that the GM could be wrong.

In round three, if the team's top two players are ranked #60 and #65, but the consensus has the #60 player ranked #150 and the #65 player ranked #65, taking the #65 ranked player on the team's board should be an easy choice.

I don’t think anyone on this board would disagree philosophically that you want to maximize value in the draft. But the clear and obvious disconnect here is how to define “value”. In my opinion you are coming across as very narrow in suggesting that value should only be determined by a consensus draft board. That is why many people are taking issue with your stance and perspective on this.

in you above example, let’s say they #65/65 was Desmond Ridder and #60/#150 is Woods. Would you take the QB? Does that add more value to the team than Woods over the next couple years?

Point being is that there are MANY additional variables to consider such as current roster construct, future free agents/timing, scheme, medicals, interviews, etc. the Chargers clearly feel like this is a player that can have a bigger impact on the team and the defensive unit…they’ve explained their reasoning for the pick and how it can unlock the potential of the unit as a whole and Derwin in particular. plus you have Nas as a looming free agent that I suspect won’t be re-signed.

These consensus big boards are a general guide, where most are wrong most of the time for all of the reasons I cited above. they can’t possibly take all of these other variable into consideration. I think if you asked any of them they would agree that it’s a general guide, not the Bible.

The good news for you is that if the Chargers are wrong you don’t lose anything, but they all have jobs on the line. To suggest that they aren’t making every pick from the perspective of adding the most impact to the team is ridiculous.

[Xenos]

Oooooh, I like that.

Mods, can we change the title of this thread to The Time Lord Thread, much more apt.

[Formula 21]

In the 2020 NFL Draft, Cleveland had every intention of drafting Florida kicker Evan McPherson at No. 153 overall, according to Mary Kay Cabot of cleveland.com. Unfortunately for the Browns, division-rival Cincinnati beat them to the punch, drafting McPherson four spots earlier. McPherson had an impressive rookie-season, converting 28 of 33 field goals and 46 of 48 extra points in the regular season, as well as going a perfect 14 of 14 on field goals and 6 of 6 on extra points in the Bengals’ Super Bowl run.



That’s what happens when you wait too long to get “your guy.”

[blueman]

The thread that won’t die…kinda fun, I dunno.

[powderblueboy]

Staley made a big deal about how Woods was a ball hawk and led the nation in INTs. I studied Woods' INTs from 2021 because that seemed particularly relevant to what Staley was saying. Except for one very good play where Woods stepped in front of the receiver, stretched out his arms, made a nice catch and took it to the house, the rest of his INTs were somewhat flukish in nature.

These are plays where Woods did not successfully get to the receiver before the ball got there. On one play, for example, the QB made a horrible overthrow that was nowhere near the intended receiver, and it found Woods, who was also nowhere near the intended receiver. There was no traffic, just Woods there for the ball. All that showed is that Woods can move and catch a thrown ball.

On an another INT, there was a different defender that had pretty good coverage on the WR. The ball arrived well before Woods did and that other defender tipped the ball right at Woods, who was several yards away. Woods did a nice job of catching that ball, but it was pure luck that the random deflection went right at him.

So, my point about that is that I do not think you can count on getting a high volume of those kinds of INTs year after year. I see that as being very different from what J.C. Jackson is doing by getting INTs by having good coverage. In one case (Jackson's) the player is making good football plays that generate turnovers. In the other (the case of Woods), the player is getting several INTs because of random fluke luck circumstances.

Regarding Anderson versus Woods, I do not completely disagree with your take in terms of what one player may do better than the other, but I do disagree with your take as to the degree of difference in terms of coverage and ball skills. Woods may be a little bit better than Anderson in those areas, but I would put it as no more than a little better. In watching limited amounts of each player, it appears that neither player tracks the ball very well on deeper passes while they are running. Both players use closing speed and body length to make up for any separation created during passing routes.

Concerning consensus big boards, analyses of people with NFL experience (the same training that you have emphasized) are included as are the big boards of experienced pundits that know what they are discussing. If you think our war room has a monopoly on the correct assessment player talent, then you have not watched Telesco's drafts very carefully. I do not believe that and I think you realize that Telesco has certainly had his fair share of draft pick misses.

My point is that when a whole bunch of people with some degree of experience in assessing players suggest that a GM is wrong, the GM just might factor that into his decision making when he considers selecting a player in that player's early outlier range and consider taking that player a little bit later. I have gone through the exercise several times now of showing the kind of overall roster talent difference even just a couple of reaches can make, which is why, when there are no truly dominant teams and very little separates teams from winning and losing, and every little advantage matters so much, it is so important not to give away overall roster talent by wasting draft capital on players that arguably should be drafted significantly later in the draft.

You need to name one person from this group suggesting that Telesco was wrong in selecting Woods who has experience playing or coaching a defensive back field position.
The nameless, faceless mob of PFF Zacks & CBS.com Kevins convinces nobody.

I think this would go a long ways towards buttressing your argument. Maybe Weddle didn't like the pick, or Rodney Harrison,......?

As for Woods vs.Anderson, they play the position differently: Anderson's style does not fit what the Chargers were looking for.