2024 Chargers Draft Superthread - Prospect Discussion - Draft Has Started

[Topcat]

No, that is not what I am saying at all.
The key is to deny Mahomes possession,
all the way to the final gun.

Well, the new Bolt Roman ground game, with some Herbie passes, should eat up a lot of clock...but on defense, I really do think there should be some type of LB that is assigned at least a middle zone to either defend against short passes, or be a spy on Mahomes if he scrambles...maybe even go with those two LB's I mentioned to play zone vs. pass/spy on Mahomes on obvious passing downs...

[21&500]

Entertain offers and see if someone goes nuts and offers the farm and part of next year's farm...if nobody wants to pony up the picks, take him...

next years picks will be particularly valuable to us as Hortiz will have HIS scouts ready by then and Jim will also know many of those prospects.
from what I hear, it's a much better RB draft

[wu-dai clan]

Well, the new Bolt Roman ground game, with some Herbie passes, should eat up a lot of clock...but on defense, I really do think there should be some type of LB that is assigned at least a middle zone to either defend against short passes, or be a spy on Mahomes if he scrambles...maybe even go with those two LB's I mentioned to play zone vs. pass/spy on Mahomes on obvious passing downs...

Won't work vs Mahomes, especially with Kelce.
That is my whole point.

[Xenos]

Maybe scenario D? But ideally we come out with at least a starting Center in the first three rounds.

Captain Chaos is back. Jim Harbaugh left Michigan this winter for the Los Angeles Chargers and a shot an elusive Super Bowl victory. Upon his arrival — via his family RV, apparently — he’ll bring three things with him: toughness, chewing tobacco and unpredictability.

Harbaugh’s first NFL Draft alongside new GM Joe Hortiz will set the foundation for what they hope will be a championship run. And they’re in a pretty great spot. Below, The Athletic’s Chargers beat writer Daniel Popper and draft analyst Nick Baumgardner dive into some of those possibilities.

Four three-round draft scenarios for the Chargers, in Harbaugh’s first draft since 2014 …

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Scenario A: Start up front

No. 5	Joe Alt	OT	Notre Dame
No. 37	Zach Frazier	C	West Virginia
No. 69	Roman Wilson	WR	Michigan

Nick Baumgardner: In our first scenario, we’re addressing what might be the team’s biggest need — especially with its new head coach. A big part of Harbaugh’s job will be about Justin Herbert. But Harbaugh is who he is, and he’s going to run the ball. The Chargers have a great piece to start with up front in Rashawn Slater and could pair him with the draft’s best offensive tackle.

That choice, be it Joe Alt or Penn State’s Olu Fashanu, will be good enough to start in the NFL immediately and would give Harbaugh’s staff a good bit of flexibility up front.

Daniel, you’re the expert on this roster: How high up is tackle on the needs list?

Daniel Popper: The Chargers technically might have more pressing roster needs, but I like this pick. Harbaugh was asked about his vision for the offense at his introductory news conference last week, and protecting Herbert was the first element he mentioned. The second was beefing up the run game.

So, the natural conclusion is that Harbaugh will be looking to upgrade the Chargers’ offensive line this offseason. That would certainly align with his team-building philosophy throughout his career, in college and the pros.

The Chargers have a stud left tackle in Slater, who is extension-eligible this offseason. The upgrade could come at right tackle. The Chargers signed Trey Pipkins to an extension last offseason, but his performance declined in 2023. With Alt available at 5, Harbaugh would have the option of moving into his first Chargers season with bookend tackles. That would be enticing.

Picking this high in the first round, the Chargers should be looking to acquire a player at a premium position. Tackle checks that box.

Baumgardner: Admittedly, before the Chargers hired Harbaugh, I’d leaned more receiver (or even, gasp, tight end) for them here. But the option to do everything you just outlined, plus snag a potential starting center in Round 2, feels like a really good one. The trick here for center-needy teams is that there are two no-doubt starters in this draft, Zach Frazier and Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson. But you’ll probably need to grab them before the end of the second round. Frazier, who is still working back from a leg injury, might’ve been a first-round pick — as Powers-Johnson likely will be — had it not been for his setback.

The other question here: How high is receiver on the Chargers’ list?

Popper: Let’s start with center. It is a huge need. Corey Linsley said last month that there is a “99 percent” chance he will be retiring as a result of a heart-related medical issue. The Chargers do not have a replacement on the roster, and with their dicey cap situation, finding a starting center in free agency will be difficult. The most logical option is addressing this need in the draft. As you alluded to, though, there is a scenario in which Powers-Johnson and Frazier are both off the board before the Chargers are up at 37.

If Frazier is there, that pick makes a ton of sense. Need and value aligning quite nicely.

The receiver question is an interesting one. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are slated for cap hits of more than $30 million in 2024. Those are the two biggest cap hits among receivers league-wide, so it is hard to see both players remaining on the roster next season. I think the Chargers will extend Allen but move on from Williams. In that case, receiver becomes a bigger need.

Allen is still a great player. After him, there is Josh Palmer, who is a solid piece but probably fits better as a third receiver. They drafted Quentin Johnston in the first round last year, but he struggled in many areas as a rookie, from route running to his hands. He is a developmental project, and I don’t think it would be wise for the Chargers to rely on any sort of significant jump in his second season.

And so, if the Chargers do move on from Williams, receiver on Day 1 or 2 makes a lot of sense. In particular, the Chargers need speed. For too long, their receiving group has lacked the type of deep threat that can really challenge defenses down the field. Roman Wilson certainly would provide that element.

Baumgardner: This is a great transition into our second scenario …

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Scenario B: Start at WR

No. 5	Rome Odunze	WR	Washington
No. 37	Zach Frazier	C	West Virginia
No. 69	Dominick Puni	OL	Kansas

Baumgardner: In so many ways, the draft starts with the Chargers because of all the things they can do at 5. I like the idea of finding a way to keep Allen for as long as you can, as I think he’s valuable on the field and off for a team that’s going through a lot. But I also don’t hate the idea of just starting over there and bulking up with a stud.

Odunze is likely WR3 in this draft, behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, but no one would blink if he landed in the top five. The line between Odunze and Nabers for WR2 is very thin, and some believe the line between those two and Harrison for WR1 is pretty light, too.

The trick with this scenario, though, is that you’re losing value on the offensive line. I’m with you that it’s going to be hard to replace Linsley in free agency, and the Chargers should grab one of the top two centers if they have the chance. Puni is a tackle some might consider a guard — a solid prospect but one who might not be ready to start next year.

If you had to choose between the two, would you want the better OT or the better center in this draft?

Popper: If the Chargers do go receiver at 5, I still think center has to be the pick at 37. Even though Pipkins took a step back, he has shown starter-level play at points in his career, particularly in 2022. There is talent to work with there, and the coaching should presumably improve under Harbaugh. If the Chargers pass on Frazier in the second round, I just do not see how they fill the center position for 2024.

We will see how free agency shapes up. The reality is teams rarely let good, ascending offensive linemen hit the open market. When the Chargers signed Linsley, it was an aberration. They also had to give him a top-of-the-market, five-year contract — and ended up getting just 33 starts from him over his three seasons.

The approach at 5 should genuinely be “best player available,” which is why tackle could be an option. As the draft progresses, the Chargers will need to narrow their focus and try to address some holes. And center is a very important one, especially if Harbaugh wants to improve on what was a dreadful running game under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in 2023.

Baumgardner: I do think you could push it to the third round with the center spot and grab someone like Georgia’s Sedrick Van Pran. But that’s probably the line for me. He’s not the player that Powers-Johnson and Frazier are, but he played in a system that’ll link up with what Harbaugh wants to do.

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Scenario C: The Brock Bowers Plan

No. 5	Brock Bowers	TE	Georgia
No. 37	Graham Barton	OL	Duke
No. 69	Sedrick Van Pran	IOL	Georgia

Baumgardner: Tight end is always a hot-button topic with anyone drafting inside the top 10, let alone the top five. However, I believe Brock Bowers not only is the type of prospect who’s actually worth that investment, he’s also literally perfect for everything Harbaugh does with a football team. Kyle Pitts was the only other tight end in recent memory you could make an argument for for this high — and Bowers is better.

He was physically ready to play in the NFL as a true freshman, which Harbaugh would know — his Michigan team got thumped by the Bulldogs that season. Bowers can play inline and help with the run game and protection, or he can flex and be Herbert’s best friend to a point where it actually alleviates the need for another premium receiver. If anyone is going to do this up here, I think it’s the Chargers.

Do you think Harbaugh and new GM Joe Hortiz would take a swing on something like this? Because it does come with risk.

Popper: If we remove the pick number from the conversation, Bowers — purely as a prospect and player — is a great fit.

There is a chance the Chargers will have a completely revamped tight end room in 2024. Gerald Everett will be a free agent. Donald Parham Jr. is a potential cap casualty. Nick Vannett is a free agent, as well. Stone Smartt was a Brandon Staley favorite, but he is more of a fringe, bottom-of-the-roster player.

The Chargers’ run game cratered in 2023, despite optimism with Moore joining Staley’s staff. And the primary reason for that was just horrific run blocking from the tight ends. That group regularly lost at the point of attack. The Chargers have not had a plus blocking tight end since Hunter Henry was on the roster in 2020. He was a favorite target of Herbert in the quarterback’s rookie season, too. Henry left after that season in free agency, signing with the Patriots.

Bowers would absolutely fill a need, in the passing game and running game, and supplying Herbert with weapons is always a sound approach.

My only concern is positional value, as I wrote last month in response to Dane Brugler’s mock draft. Dane had the Chargers taking Bowers at 5, meaning Bowers would have a cap hit of nearly $12 million by the end of his rookie deal. He would need to become a top-10 player at his position to make good on that contract.

That is still a likely outcome, but the margin for error would be razor-thin. A receiver or tackle with a $12 million cap hit, for instance, would not have to reach the same level to provide value on the contract. And the opportunity for surplus value is greater. This type of thought process happens in NFL front offices, and it will likely be a consideration — probably more for Hortiz than Harbaugh — as the Chargers decide on whether Bowers makes sense.

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Scenario D: Trade Down

No. 8	Olu Fashanu	OT	Penn State
No. 37	Zach Frazier	C	West Virginia
No. 43	Xavier Worthy	WR	Texas
No. 69	Blake Corum	RB	Michigan

Projected trade: Chargers send No. 5 to Atlanta for Nos. 8 and 43.

Baumgardner: The trade-down scenario almost always wins with teams in the Chargers’ situation. And I have to say, I think it does again here.

The good news? This is a year to make this happen, as there are a lot of QB-needy teams and plenty of good passers to choose from. I could see the Atlanta Falcons wanting to jump up if they’re worried about the New York Giants taking Jayden Daniels. I could see the Minnesota Vikings or Denver Broncos or Las Vegas Raiders or maybe even the New Orleans Saints trying to get up here for a quarterback. A lot could happen.

This covers every area we’ve discussed. It gives Harbaugh and Hortiz a true run-game foundation and a back Harbaugh loves (which, as Frank Gore can vouch for, is very important with this coach).

Are you on Team Trade Down for the Chargers, and how likely do you see something like this happening?

Popper: I love the trade-down scenario, especially if the draft unfolds like this. Previous GM Tom Telesco was stubbornly averse to trading down, and I think that affected his ability to build depth over his 11 years in charge. Hortiz brings a more forward-thinking approach from the Ravens. “I’m a big fan of comp picks,” he said at his introductory press conference. That logic can be applied to a broader strategy: the more top-100 picks, the better.

We discussed tackle, center and a speed receiver. Running back is also a huge need. Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley, the Chargers’ top two backs, are set to hit free agency. Third-year back Isaiah Spillerhas not shown much in his first two seasons. Investing in that position, especially considering Harbaugh’s vision for the offense, will be paramount. When assessing the run-game performance last season, some blame does fall on the backs and the lack of a reliable between-the-tackles runner.

[Boltnut]

4 different scenarios... and not a single defensive player in any of them...?
This is why I take "experts" with a grain of salt...

[Maniaque 6]

Scenario C would make Herby very happy.
How much more time would he have with a real OL ?
What a show it would be ?

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

Maybe scenario D? But ideally we come out with at least a starting Center in the first three rounds.

Very interesting read! Thanks for posting. Err... re-posting!

As I've said previously, I'm a big fan of trading down, as long as the picks acquired allow the trenches to be rebuilt in the way described, above.

[Xenos]

4 different scenarios... and not a single defensive player in any of them...?
This is why I take "experts" with a grain of salt...

I think because Jim’s a more offensive oriented HC compared to his brother or Staley. I also think it’s because we need a starting Center and the only way to do that is in no later than the second, while the premium position at #5 are all on the offensive side. But yeah I agree that there needs to be at least a defensive guy in the 3rd.

[Maniaque 6]

Depending who is on the board.

[Xenos]

Very interesting read! Thanks for posting. Err... re-posting!

As I've said previously, I'm a big fan of trading down, as long as the picks acquired allow the trenches to be rebuilt in the way described, above.

Sorry, I must have missed the original post.

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

Scenario C would make Herby very happy.
How much more time would he have with a real OL ?
What a show it would be ?

Every single one of those options benefits Herb in a big way. There isn't an option with fewer than TWO O-linemen. lol

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

Sorry, I must have missed the original post.

Re-posted from Twitter, right? Sorry, I should have been more clear.