2024 Chargers Draft Superthread - Prospect Discussion - Draft Has Started

[gzubeck]

If true, i would think so. I think so anyway, actually - Jim wants to win now, he's not going to get replacement level comp for them. If he cut one, its to sign a younger star edge e.g. Josh Allen type.

I saw a tweet and thought hmmm. basically it said

1. Nabers is a bigger stronger more explosive better version of Flowers
2. Hortiz drafted Flowers #1 last year

(technically Hortiz wasnt GM and draft "decider" but you get the theory here)

hmmm indeed. who doesn't like good nabers, eh? (hat tip to tophat )

Reminds me of the Arnold Commercial...who doesn't like a good Neighba...

[Topcat]

If true, i would think so. I think so anyway, actually - Jim wants to win now, he's not going to get replacement level comp for them. If he cut one, its to sign a younger star edge e.g. Josh Allen type.

I saw a tweet and thought hmmm. basically it said

1. Nabers is a bigger stronger more explosive better version of Flowers
2. Hortiz drafted Flowers #1 last year

(technically Hortiz wasnt GM and draft "decider" but you get the theory here)

hmmm indeed. who doesn't like good nabers, eh? (hat tip to tophat )

Reminds me of the Arnold Commercial...who doesn't like a good Neighba...

Thanks! Like a good neigh-baa...Maa-lik is theah!

[dmac_bolt]

That's true of any position, though. There's definitely variance between positions when it comes to hit rates, but so many of the best WRs do get drafted in the first round. Fitzgerald, AJ Green, Megatron, Julio, Chase, Andre Johnson, Jefferson just to name a few of the tip top of my head. Brady and Purdy have been better than a lot of 1st round QBs out there, but drafting a QB in the 7th round isn't the way to go, despite massive busts from D'Arnold, Rosen, Lance, etc.

I can make a list of CBs, Tackles, DEs, QBs, DTs who have all busted from being top 10-15 picks. It's important to look at both the hit rate (both as far as productive players and studs) and miss rates (both as players who didn't live up to draft position and total busts). It's also important to look where the successful players at the position are picked.

OT and WR are far safer picks in the top half of the first round and harder to find in later rounds than TE by almost any of those metrics.

Nabers has an INCREDBLE acceleration burst that MW and QJ never had in college and don't have in pros. he may run a 4.4 officially but I see clips he's moving much faster, stutter step and bursts to freeze a DB and blow past him, that is a special god given gift. I think he's a real stud. I like him over Odunze for this specific ability - rapid acceleration / separation underneath. Not knocking O - they are both stellar but I can only pick one.

He's not MW or QJ, I'm pretty sure he's more. too much talk about the talent of our WR room, we do not have this guy in that room. Now what should a #5 be / be worth? that is in the eyes of the beholder, i think.

JH2 have to decide if their OT talent is inadequate? If yes, they take Alt or Fuaga (no Fashanu, please).

IF no - there next target could be a serious skill weapon addition for Herbie.
- There is no RB worthy of first round all the way down to late 20s imo
- That leaves the big 4 we constantly discuss: MH2, Nabers, Bowers, Odunze. Expecting MH2 taken by Az, I narrow it to two.

If they decide to strengthen Defense first, DT and CB are most pressing high value options if they keep Bosa and Mack. I don't see the Top 5 talent for those but thats eye of beholder shit, what do I know. If they don't keep B&M, Edge is top priority.

[Boltjolt]

If true, i would think so. I think so anyway, actually - Jim wants to win now, he's not going to get replacement level comp for them. If he cut one, its to sign a younger star edge e.g. Josh Allen type.

I saw a tweet and thought hmmm. basically it said

1. Nabers is a bigger stronger more explosive better version of Flowers
2. Hortiz drafted Flowers #1 last year

(technically Hortiz wasnt GM and draft "decider" but you get the theory here)

hmmm indeed. who doesn't like good nabers, eh? (hat tip to tophat )

I like a good Nabah (Schwartznager version)

But I'm still a Bowers guy

[eaterfan]

Nabers has an INCREDBLE acceleration burst that MW and QJ never had in college and don't have in pros. he may run a 4.4 officially but I see clips he's moving much faster, stutter step and bursts to freeze a DB and blow past him, that is a special god given gift. I think he's a real stud. I like him over Odunze for this specific ability - rapid acceleration / separation underneath. Not knocking O - they are both stellar but I can only pick one.

He's not MW or QJ, I'm pretty sure he's more. too much talk about the talent of our WR room, we do not have this guy in that room. Now what should a #5 be / be worth? that is in the eyes of the beholder, i think.

JH2 have to decide if their OT talent is inadequate? If yes, they take Alt or Fuaga (no Fashanu, please).

IF no - there next target could be a serious skill weapon addition for Herbie.
- There is no RB worthy of first round all the way down to late 20s imo
- That leaves the big 4 we constantly discuss: MH2, Nabers, Bowers, Odunze. Expecting MH2 taken by Az, I narrow it to two.

If they decide to strengthen Defense first, DT and CB are most pressing high value options if they keep Bosa and Mack. I don't see the Top 5 talent for those but thats eye of beholder shit, what do I know. If they don't keep B&M, Edge is top priority.

I like Nabers a lot. If we stick at 5, he would be my pick. The way he changes direction without losing speed reminds me of Hill. So many guys have real top end speed, but lose it when changing direction. Hill and now Nabers are both able to maintain their speed when they cut and break. It leads to massive separation and big YAC ability.

[Velo]

I like Nabers a lot. If we stick at 5, he would be my pick. The way he changes direction without losing speed reminds me of Hill. So many guys have real top end speed, but lose it when changing direction. Hill and now Nabers are both able to maintain their speed when they cut and break. It leads to massive separation and big YAC ability.

I like him, but I'm very wary of drafting a WR that high. I'd rather draft a TE that high than a WR. You can find WR gems later in the draft, as we have seen.

[AK47]

Nabers has an INCREDBLE acceleration burst that MW and QJ never had in college and don't have in pros. he may run a 4.4 officially but I see clips he's moving much faster, stutter step and bursts to freeze a DB and blow past him, that is a special god given gift. I think he's a real stud. I like him over Odunze for this specific ability - rapid acceleration / separation underneath. Not knocking O - they are both stellar but I can only pick one.

It could be argued Odunze is faster than Nabers. Bigger AND Faster.

Odunze: Reportedly 4.34 / 6-3 215lbs / Drop rate 3.9% to 68.2% contested catch rate
Nabers: Reportedly 4.44 / 6-0 200lbs / Drop rate 6.5% to 47.6% contest catch rate

We will get more clarity after combine. And just for reference:

Bowers Reportedly 4.50 / 6-4 240lbs / Drop rate sub 5% over 3 seasons to 75%+ contested catch rate


If the numbers spoke to me without watching tape:

Odunze is big and fast with really good hands. He should be running away from opponents but his high contested catch rate indicates he runs timing routes and catches really well. This dude is probably a technician like a Keenan Allen but with more speed.

Nabers has a 47.6% contest catch rate so perhaps he's running past dudes or getting open a lot via good route running. Probably opening up the top wide open. The 6.5% is good and perhaps he has good ball tracking skills. Probably more of a deep ball threat.

Bowers......is this dude a machine? what kind of human has sub 5% catch rate when 75% of the time there's a defender in his vicinity. Must be a TE with that size and is the security blanket of the group. If defender does not get the initial tackle, has enough speed to run away.

[Topcat]

I like a good Nabah (Schwartznager version)

But I'm still a Bowers guy

Wow...what a choice! Nabaahs and Bowaahs!

[eaterfan]

I like him, but I'm very wary of drafting a WR that high. I'd rather draft a TE that high than a WR. You can find WR gems later in the draft, as we have seen.

The last great TE drafted in the first round was Tony Gonzalez....

Gates - undrafted
Witten - 3rd round
Gronk - 2nd round
Kelce - 3rd round
Andrews - 3rd round
Waller - 6th round
Kittle - 5th round

I'm entirely confused as to why you think we can find a WR in later rounds when all of the best TEs of the last 20 years have not been 1st round picks. The two best TEs drafted in the 1st round since Gonzalez have probably been Hockenson and Shockey and neither were worth their draft position.

There have been tons of great WRs that have been drafted outside the first round, but two who I would consider the best WR at any given instant:

Tyreek Hill - 5th round (lots of character issues)
Devante Adams - 2nd round

There are others who played at an all pro level for several years

Keenan Allen - 3rd round
Stefon Diggs - 5th round
AJ Brown - 2nd round
Cooper Kupp - 3rd round

and many more. But also, let's look at first round receivers since Randy Moss (we'll consider him the Tony Gonzalez comp) who hit:

Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
Reggie Wayne
Mike Evans
DeAndre Hopkins
AJ Green
Megatron
Julio Jones
Jefferson
Chase

.

[Velo]

I'm entirely confused as to why you think we can find a WR in later rounds when all of the best TEs of the last 20 years have not been 1st round picks.

Funny, I have been making this same argument about TEs as a reason to draft Brock Bowers. But I'm coming around on Bowers, and it's because his talents truly are unique. As for "I'm entirely confused as to why you think we can find a WR in later rounds..." Two words: Puka Nacua.

[eaterfan]

Funny, I have been making this same argument about TEs as a reason to draft Brock Bowers. But I'm coming around on Bowers, and it's because his talents truly are unique. As for "I'm entirely confused as to why you think we can find a WR in later rounds..." Two words: Puka Nacua.

Fair enough, I just prefer to not draft based on finding the outlier.

[Velo]

I just prefer to not draft based on finding the outlier.

Good point.