Off-Season Outlook by Salary

[SFW]

I'm really ambivalent about Grandal. I think he's got a world of talent and he will develop into a very good hitter. However, he never really showed remorse for his PEDs suspension, and it seems that he wants out of SD. Rumors were that he was asking for a trade, and he never actually denied it when he was directly asked. Instead, he smiled and said "Consider the source." Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but I really wonder whether he would want to sign long-term.

Kemp, on the other hand, is excited about the prospect of playing in SD and even has a house about 40 minutes from Petco. So he'd definitely have a good attitude about coming "home".

Cashner is the same as Grandal to me. I don't know all the details behind the contract offer to Cash, but he turned it down, and again, rumor has it that he wants to play in Texas. I love what he brings to the mound and the team, but if he doesn't want to be here, he's the first out the door, IMO. Also, he just can't seem to stay healthy, so that enters into a little with me, but I don't care about that as much as others do. He's got a nice smooth motion, and he throws free and easy. I think health will become less of an issue as time goes by and his body adjusts to the rigors of being a starting pitcher in the majors.

Rangers #1 target is rumored to be Casher right now. And if he wants to go back to Texas a trade with them could make a lot of sense considering Preller came from them and knows their entire system really well. I would hate to lose him but if they do trade him I would hope they could get a pretty good return.

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

I would rather keep grandal if there was a way too but there is no chance the Dodgers will give up Kemp for some of our more expendable players. You have to give up something to get something and Kemp is already an all-star caliber player and even potential MVP type player and at best Grandal will someday get there.

I never said Kemp could be acquired for magic beans, however, it should be noted that he's 29, has missed a lot of games in recent years and hasn't come anywhere close to approaching his 2010 output since then.

Meanwhile, who's playing 1B for this club?

Grandal only just turned 26 years old earlier this month, yet his career has already had some pretty tumultuous ups and downs. He was the No. 12 overall pick by the Reds in the 2010 draft and was a key part of the 2011 trade that sent Mat Latos to Cincinnati, but he also missed 50 games in 2013 due to a PED suspension and blew out his right knee barely a month after being reinstated. He rushed back to be ready for Opening Day 2014, but he played infrequently as part of a three-headed catching situation with Hundley and Rene Rivera. Though Hundley was eventually traded to Baltimore, Grandal's catching time didn't increase all that much, because he became the semi-regular first baseman for most of the final third of the year because of Yonder Alonso's injury problems.


Daniel Shirey/USA TODAY Sports
Russell Martin signed a $82 million, five-year contract with Toronto earlier this week.
If you like batting average, then Grandal has been pretty underwhelming, hitting only .225 this year and .215 last year. Of course, we're smarter than to rely on a number that ignores walks and treats home runs and singles equally, and that low average hides the truth about Grandal, which is that he's been an above-average hitter. By wRC+, which accounts not only for the low offensive environment around the game but particularly of San Diego's home field, Grandal's 111 mark means he was 11 percent better than a league-average hitter. Since his 2012 debut, 37 catchers have had at least 700 plate appearances, and Grandal's 119 mark is the seventh-best in baseball -- a ranking that looks even more impressive when you remember that two of the men above him (Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana) aren't really catchers any longer.

The batting average doesn't reflect that because Grandal is a poor baserunner who never beats out hits -- he is a catcher coming off a knee injury, after all -- and struck out his fair share this year, but he makes up for that with patience and power. His 13.1 percent walk rate this year, for example, was well above the nonpitcher MLB average of 7.8. More impressively, his average fly ball batted ball distance of 304.13 feet was not only the eighth-best in all of baseball, it was the best by any non-righty hitter. Of his team-leading 15 homers, Hit Tracker measured that 14 of them would have left the yard in at least 80 percent of parks.

On defense, we know that there's limitations in how we can measure catchers, so the data on Grandal is somewhat uneven. Empirically, the fact that Grandal started only 67 games behind the plate while Rivera -- a career journeyman on his sixth organization, not including a 2010 stint in independent ball -- became the regular starter and personal catcher to Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross would seem to be a red flag.

Of course, there's context to that. Grandal's rushed return from the knee injury may have caused the Padres to hesitate in catching him too often, and Alonso's spotty availability opened a need at first. Rivera, one of the most-respected defensive catchers in the game, had a breakout season himself by putting up a 114 wRC+ to go with excellent pitch-framing numbers.

When Grandal did get behind the plate, however, he rated as an above-average pitch framer, as well. While single-year numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, StatCorner ranked him as being better than Martin, who got his big deal in no small part because of his skill in framing. Baseball Prospectus didn't quite go that far, but it still considered him as the 13th-best catcher overall. One might also assume that with another year away from the knee injury, Grandal's ability to catch more often might improve, as well.

[SFW]

I never said Kemp could be acquired for magic beans, however, it should be noted that he's 29, has missed a lot of games in recent years and hasn't come anywhere close to approaching his 2010 output since then.

Meanwhile, who's playing 1B for this club?

I don't consider 29 old in baseball. We will just have to agree to disagree and the value of Kemp vs Grandal and the trade overall.

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

I don't consider it old either but it's not exactly young, particularly for a player that has missed a lot of games in recent years and whose production has declined significantly. The more I think about it, the less desirous I am of this deal. It certainly makes a splash, but it seems more like a short-term PR move than something that's going to turn this franchise around (which ought to be the point in making a big dollar acquisition like this.) I'd rather make the effort on Upton and make the long-term offer. Provided you have him convinced about your program and your financial commitment why would he knee-jerk refuse it? Other than him, I suppose I might wait for next year to make a big move. Not sure I see a lot of desirable opportunities being reported.

As for agreeing to disagree, that's fine but you seem to do this a lot. Sort of defeats the purpose of the message board if it's 'agree with me or I shut it down.' I'm not being disrespectful or disagreeable. Just talking it through.

[SFW]

I just feel no matter what the Padres do or don't do you don't approve it and there is pretty much nothing they can do that will win your approval so I would rather move on than debate on something when we already both understand the other person. It isn't a disrespectful thing, just don't feel like having long debates on the subject.

I don't see it as a PR move it all. I think you are mis-portraying his stats. His numbers have not "significantly declined" at all. You are only pointing out his one outlier/best year and acting like he is declining since then. His numbers this past year were pretty much exactly on par with his career numbers, to include batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS. I view him as being a .280 25 HR 85 RBI guy. I just don't view that as a PR move but by improving the team and spending money it will also provide good PR.

I also think giving up a lot for a player (Upton in this case) on a one year contract with the hope you can get him to re-sign is a horrible strategy for the team. IMO that should only ever be done with teams that think they are that one player away from contending for a World Series. The Padres are definitely not in that category.

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

I just feel no matter what the Padres do or don't do you don't approve it and there is pretty much nothing they can do that will win your approval so I would rather move on than debate on something when we already both understand the other person.

Well you obviously don't understand this person if you think nothing they could do would win my approval. We've actually discussed scenarios they've been linked to and ones they haven't with which I would be on board. So that's an out of left field comment. You just consider me a hater. A baseless point of view, but that's where I think you lump me. I'm certainly a skeptic, but I'm no hater.

I'd rather they make no blockbuster this year than pull a bad one or do it for PR reasons (which usually leads to a bad one). As I've said before, the mix of players openly discussed this offseason doesn't generally pique my interest. Upton and Cespedes are two that have been discussed that I would support. Both would be FA's next year so some sort of extension would be an absolute prerequisite as I have said. You are on record as saying that would be impossible. I am not so sure.

As for Kemp, he signed his deal following his big season. He finished 2nd in MVP voting that year. Including missing significant time due to injury, his performance has not come close to his output that season--the season on which his most recent contract was based. He had 40 steals that year and hasn't hit double figures since. He's 30, has knee issues and isn't a particularly good defender. His plate performance might have returned to previous levels, but is that really worth the $105M remaining on his deal (through 2019) plus whomever we send to LA? I'm not sure it is, even if LA eats a sizable dollar amount as has been reported.

Would I like to have Kemp? In a vacuum, sure. But in the context of what it costs in terms of players and dollars, I am not sure he's a piece I want to build around. If I'm trying to change the dynamic offensively and in terms of culture, I'm going to have to lay out major cash. And if I'm going to do that, I want a piece to build around. Kemp could very well have seen his best days. That's a risk I might not want to take. Dbacks signed Tomas for 6/68.5. We probably could have topped that offer and taken a risk on a young, (hopefully) ascending player to build around and still saved money and players over what we'd be paying/paying for Kemp.

I don't know for sure about where his career will go, but I think Grandal's the best hitter we've had in about a decade, maybe longer. He's gotten derailed due to PEDs and injury, but he sure started to look like he was coming back into form late in the year. I'm done with the Alonso experiment, so I see Grandal fitting very nicely at first. If you can deal a Kennedy and an Eflin, J. Ross, Wisler, Peterson, etc.for an Upton or Cespedes, suddenly that's looking pretty legit. But to me, balling everything up in Kemp and losing Grandal in the process seems foolish, esp when it's the offense we're trying to build up.

[SFW]

I don't know for sure about where his career will go, but I think Grandal's the best hitter we've had in about a decade, maybe longer. He's gotten derailed due to PEDs and injury, but he sure started to look like he was coming back into form late in the year. I'm done with the Alonso experiment, so I see Grandal fitting very nicely at first. If you can deal a Kennedy and an Eflin, J. Ross, Wisler, Peterson, etc.for an Upton or Cespedes, suddenly that's looking pretty legit. But to me, balling everything up in Kemp and losing Grandal in the process seems foolish, esp when it's the offense we're trying to build up.

Do you really think Grandal is a better hitter than Adrian Gonzalez? I don't even know what to say about that.

And you are contradicting yourself when you bash Kemp for only having the one great year, injury issues and then give credit to Grandal for his late season hitting last year. I guess you are ignoring the fact that Grandal has only had one good complete season (on PED's), missed more games than Kemp in each of the last two years and that Kemp put up great numbers in the 2nd half last season (.303/.360/.589, 16 home runs and 51 RBIs in 62 games).

I can understand not wanting to invest a lot of money into a 30 year old OF but the arguments you are making just don't add up and and everything you are using to hate on Kemp, you are ignoring with Grandal. Or are you saying Grandal's injuries and inconsistent hitting are justified because he is only 26?

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

Do you really think Grandal is a better hitter than Adrian Gonzalez? I don't even know what to say about that.

Sorry, my bad. Forgot about him (for obvious reasons). But I don't think I would put anyone else over him. He's a really good hitter with an excellent command of the zone.

And you are contradicting yourself when you bash Kemp for only having the one great year, injury issues and then give credit to Grandal for his late season hitting last year. I guess you are ignoring the fact that Grandal has only had one good complete season (on PED's), missed more games than Kemp in each of the last two years and that Kemp put up great numbers in the 2nd half last season (.303/.360/.589, 16 home runs and 51 RBIs in 62 games).

No I'm not contradicting myself at all. Yes, Grandal has missed a lot of games due to suspension and his knee, but he did come back from ACL in 6 months, which is pretty impressive. And yes, he's younger and his arrow is pointing up where Kemp's (at best) is probably flat the first couple years. It's unlikely that his performance down the road will come close to what we're paying him. There's also the issue about robbing one position to fill another. And then there's the massive discrepancy between the players' salaries. This article makes the case better than me:

This isn’t one of those deals that came out of nowhere. The Padres have been rumored to be the most aggressive Matt Kemp suitor for a couple of weeks now, and all other interested parties seemingly dropped out as the asking price kept getting higher and higher. Over the last few days, this deal felt somewhat inevitable, so we’ve had plenty of time to process the trade and figure out what to say about it. And yet, I’m still kind of stumped.

The 2015 Padres are going to be bad. We currently project them at around a 75 win level, putting them in the same group as the Astros, Twins, Diamondbacks, and Braves. The only team demonstrably worse is the Phillies; you could reasonably argue that the Padres are something like the second worst team in baseball. And they could very well make themselves worse on purpose before the offseason ends, as they’ve reportedly been shopping their veteran starting pitchers, including walk-year guy Ian Kennedy.

It makes plenty of sense for the Padres to trade Kennedy, and if they’re worried that Tyson Ross‘ elbow will blow up from all the sliders he throws, there’s a good case to be made for trading him too. Non-contenders should generally be incentivized to move their short-term assets, especially ones with a significant chance of losing value, in exchange for players who will stick around longer and might increase in value in the future. Given the state of the Padres talent base, they should probably be focusing more on the future than the present.

Which is why I have a hard time understanding why they prioritized adding Matt Kemp. Yes, it’s clear that the team wanted to add a “big bat” to their line-up this winter, and Kemp is legitimately one of the best right-handed hitters in baseball. He gives them something they didn’t have before. I just don’t see how adding Kemp makes them a significantly better baseball team.


Even if you take the most optimistic view of Kemp’s defense, which makes him roughly an average right fielder, then Kemp’s overall production makes him about as valuable as Seth Smith was to the Padres last year. For all this talk about Kemp giving credibility to the Padres, or that his level of offense will do something for other San Diego players, the 2014 Padres had an average defensive corner outfielder who put up a 133 wRC+, and everyone else on their team was still awful.

To believe that Matt Kemp has some mystical ability to make everyone around him better, you have to believe not in the value of his performance helping his teammates, but in the value of his presence. And so now instead of arguing for a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats scenario — which there is some evidence for, as offensive production isn’t entirely linear — you’re arguing that Kemp’s persona or intimidation factor has some kind of magical aura above and beyond what he’s actually going to do at the plate. But there’s just no real evidence that this is the case.

Matt Kemp will make the Padres offense a bit better when he’s in the line-up because Matt Kemp can really hit. But he’s going to make the Padres defense a bit worse when he’s in the field, because he’s a pretty crap defender who is only getting older. All told, Kemp is worth maybe three wins more than a replacement level outfielder, a little less if his defense is as bad as the metrics suggest.

But to get those three wins, the Padres have to displace a not-replacement-level outfielder. Smith is obviously safe, so the odd man out is probably Carlos Quentin. Quentin, like Kemp, is a right-handed slugger with defensive problems, but he’s worse at everything, including staying healthy. Quentin was a disaster last year, but he was pretty good the year before, posting a 144 wRC+ that is even better than Kemp’s 2014 number. When healthy, he can probably still hit a little bit, with Steamer projecting a 114 wRC+ next year. Quentin is likely to get dumped on an AL team who can DH him now that Kemp is around to take his place, however.

So the marginal upgrade of replacing Quentin with Kemp is probably closer to two wins than three wins. Except, to get Kemp, they had to give up Yasmany Grandal, who was a legitimate big leaguer himself. Grandal’s problems holding down the running game — and the pitching staff’s preference for throwing to Rene Rivera — might have signaled that Grandal was likely to split his time between catcher and first base, but even that’s how you see him, there’s still value in having a guy who can hit a little bit and at least give you the flexibility to serve as the backup catcher as well.

Let’s ignore Grandal’s positive framing numbers for a second, and pretend that he really is a lousy defensive catcher. Toss in the knee problems, and all of the sudden you have a guy who should probably take the Mike Napoli career path. When the Angels foolishly gave up Napoli for the chance to acquire Vernon Wells — an aging, overrated name value outfielder who couldn’t come close to justifying his inflated salary — the same arguments were made at the time. The Rangers ignored those arguments, put Napoli behind the plate for 60 games and let him DH another 80, and promptly went to the World Series.

This deal is basically the same template as the Angels trade, and Wells was actually coming off a better overall season when Toronto dumped his salary on Anaheim. The Angels took on $80 million over four years and gave up Napoli for what they thought was a big upgrade in the outfield; he gave them +0.7 WAR over two years, then they paid the Yankees $28 million to take him off their hands. That was probably the worst trade any team has made in the last decade, and the Padres are basically making the same type of trade all over again.

No, Grandal’s not going to spike up to a 179 wRC+, like Napoli did in his first year in Texas. And yes, the Padres don’t have the DH option, so Grandal is less useful to them than Napoli would have been to Anaheim, or was to Texas. But it’s not like Yonder Alonso is an All-Star first baseman or anything, so Grandal wasn’t entirely blocked in San Diego. Even if the Padres didn’t see Grandal as a catcher going forward, you could make a pretty decent case that he projects as well at first base as Alonso does. Losing depth at both positions erases at least part of the gains the Padres can expect Kemp to add.

Even if you think Grandal is only a +1 WAR bench player, that’s still roughly half of the upgrade Kemp is over a Quentin/Will Venable combination. Now, we’re looking at the Padres being maybe a win better, two wins if you really like Kemp and are really down on Grandal. So maybe now the Padres are the 25th best team in baseball instead of the 29th best team, at least, as long as they don’t trade Kennedy, Ross, or Cashner.

But that’s just 2015. Grandal is 26 and has some upside left. Kemp is 30 and his body is breaking down. Over the next few years, the gap between them is going to shrink, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Grandal produced more value, by himself, than Kemp does over the next four seasons. The arcs won’t be the same, as Kemp will produce more value up front, but it’s not clear that the Padres should be prioritizing short-term wins, and they have been better off with a younger improving player than an older declining one.

And that’s without even touching the financial difference. The Padres are reportedly picking up $75 million of his remaining contract, which is $75 million they now can’t spend on a real big league shortstop or third baseman, or to replace the pitchers they’re thinking about trading away. The Padres aren’t a big revenue team that can just wave away big expenditures and say that there’s more where that came from. Paying Kemp means that they can’t pay someone else, and $15 million a year for what he provides isn’t exactly a huge bargain, especially since he’s likely to get worse going forward.

So in exchange for a significant chunk of their budget and some young talent that clearly had value to the Dodgers, the Padres get a marginal upgrade in a short-term window where marginal upgrades aren’t likely to help much. At least in the Angels acquisition of Vernon Wells, they were in a position to try and take avantage of what they thought was an upgrade. They were wrong about the evaluation of the two players, but at least it made sense for them to try and push forward their present roster.

Instead, this deal will likely boil down to arguments about things that aren’t encapsulated on the field. This trade will be about Kemp’s star power and what that will do for ticket sales or television rights fees or team morale. The Padres better hope that Kemp really does add a lot of value in those areas, because I don’t really see any way he adds enough baseball value to justify this deal from their perspective.

everything you are using to hate on Kemp

I'm not 'hating on' Matt Kemp. I've always had an appreciation for his game, particularly when speed was a part of it. I'm just not sure he is worth the resources we are giving up for him at this point in his career.

The deal is done and I am hopeful that it works out for the Padres. I can at least say that I am appreciative that the club has made a legitimate effort to get better. I can't even remember the last time the franchise went out and acquired an established major league position player with AS credentials. This deal may be more at changing perceptions and I do see some value from that perspective. Let's hope it's a precursor to another offensive addition. If this ends up being a standalone then it's much more about the PR angle than winning. We'll see.

[TABF]

Grandal IMO isn't a top level hitting catcher. Opposing pitchers don't fear him in a lineup. He has a ton of potential, but has not proven anything while free of PED's.

in 777 MLB AB's he is hitting .245 with 94 RBI. Sounds like just another run of the mill 7-8 hole hitter to me (and this is utilizing his PED year numbers)! All the experts agree that based on todays numbers, the Padres got the best part of this deal.

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

He has a ton of potential, but has not proven anything while free of PED's.

If your only basis for analysis is power numbers.

Sounds like just another run of the mill 7-8 hole hitter to me (and this is utilizing his PED year numbers)!

You're analyzing a rookie campaign and a year in which he short-cutted return from ACL. PED usage doesn't affect contact rates or mastery of the strike zone. His best years are likely ahead of him. That said, the discussion isn't Grandal vs Kemp. The discussion is the resources needed to employ Grandal vs the resources need to acquire and retain Kemp. The latter would really have to perform above expectation in his 30s to generate a decent ROI.

All the experts agree that based on todays numbers, the Padres got the best part of this deal.

Perhaps that's true...I'm not questioning Kemp's talent and few people would argue that Kemp is not the most talented player in the deal. But I have heard and read significant criticism of the deal from the Padres perspective from experts I follow such as Neyer, Law, O'Dowd, Smoltz and others. It's a win-now maneuver for a club that doesn't look ready to win now. Now perhaps this could change if they acquire a second big bat. IMO the biggest positive is the message this trade sends to Padres fans and the market. Maybe the franchise is really going to try to compete at long last.

[TABF]

If your only basis for analysis is power numbers.

You're analyzing a rookie campaign and a year in which he short-cutted return from ACL. PED usage doesn't affect contact rates or mastery of the strike zone. His best years are likely ahead of him. That said, the discussion isn't Grandal vs Kemp. The discussion is the resources needed to employ Grandal vs the resources need to acquire and retain Kemp. The latter would really have to perform above expectation in his 30s to generate a decent ROI.

Perhaps that's true...I'm not questioning Kemp's talent and few people would argue that Kemp is not the most talented player in the deal. But I have heard and read significant criticism of the deal from the Padres perspective from experts I follow such as Neyer, Law, O'Dowd, Smoltz and others. It's a win-now maneuver for a club that doesn't look ready to win now. Now perhaps this could change if they acquire a second big bat. IMO the biggest positive is the message this trade sends to Padres fans and the market. Maybe the franchise is really going to try to compete at long last.

Since when was BA and RBI power numbers? Those are production numbers. I was analyzing Grandals entire career which included a partial season and a rookie season. That being said he has 777 MLB plate appearances which for a starting catcher amounts to roughly 1.5 seasons. He has not flourished in his first 700+ AB's. All I'm saying is right now, all we know is that he is a .245 hitter.

We have the pitching and ball park to win now. We simply don't have big game hitters to knock in runs late in the ball game. That is what this game is about. The turtle factor is very high in baseball. Having the ability to knock in runs in a game when your SP is throwing a gem is HUGE. The Padres have lacked that type of player since Adrian and before that the 98 team. I'm not sure Kemp is that player, but we will soon find out as our SP's keep us in the majority of baseball games. In todays game, if you want that mentally tough RBI guy, you MUST pay for him, because there isn't that many.

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

Since when was BA and RBI power numbers? Those are production numbers. I was analyzing Grandals entire career which included a partial season and a rookie season. That being said he has 777 MLB plate appearances which for a starting catcher amounts to roughly 1.5 seasons. He has not flourished in his first 700+ AB's. All I'm saying is right now, all we know is that he is a .245 hitter.

No, we know more than that. Let's compare Grandal to another current Padre (normalized for 162 games):

AB 608 493
R 68 66
H 141 121
2B 30 26
3B 1 2
HR 23 18
RBI 78 71
BB 47 80
K 153 129
BA .231 .245
OPS .685 .763
WAR 1.7 4.3

Both players are 26. The first column is Jedd Gyorko who last season was signed to an extension at $7M per year. The second column is Grandal at $792K per year.

If Grandal hasn't 'flourished' he hasn't flourished for far less money.