How a GM destroyed the Padres in a matter of a few months

[Boltdog]

I think that article is a little bit premature and something of an overreaction. Tyson Ross, Ian Kennedy and Cashner aren't losing games because of the defense. They are losing games because they aren't pitching very well. If PETCO was disguising their real value/quality before Preller's moves, why is it no longer doing so? Just because Preller sold off the farm??? Grantland's supposed to be about logic and data. Neither brought to bear in this analysis. This is just the shifting pendulum narrative. Rockstar turned home wrecker. Frankly, wouldn't at all be surprised to see the young starters turn it around in the second half (they're due. And Cashner and Ross have shown well recently). And if they do, you may well see some better outcomes.

Craig Kimbrel hasn't pitched well. Shields has vacillated between dominant and hittable. Upton has played very well for the most part. The offense looked pretty good until Myers got hurt. Middlebrooks was always something of a Hail Mary. Jedd Gyorko was bad before the deals and still is. Amarista, Solarte, Alonso, etc were all jokers before the deals.

IMO, you hang on to Myers and Upton. Try to see what you can get for Kimbrel and Shields at the deadline.

Bottom line is that our hot shot young GM was seriously played last winter by far more savvy and experienced GMs, at least two of whom had ex-Padres front office types (LAD, ATL) advising how to cherry-pick the Padres farm teams. Padres did not have a bad farm system by any means--And the proof is how well these players are continuing to do for our trading partners. See the Baseball America link on our traded players production status just before All-Star game:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/top-10-traded-padres-prospects/

The one trade I still have a hard time with is what Preller gave up for a player with potential but who has had nothing but injuries since he came to the majors: Myers. We gave up two of our top prospects: Trea Turner, who was flat-out the Padres best minor league player this year (and in AZ winter ball) until he left the team--At a position where the Padres are desperate for production--SS (or 2B if you don't think he can play SS in MLB); and young Joe Ross, again, at a position of need for us--consistent starting pitching. Meanwhile some Padres fans continue to factor in that Myers will be a key part of our future, when he hasn't proven that he can even last half a season as a starter, let alone a full season with his chronically-weak wrists. Holding onto Myers? That won't be difficult--What sucker team is going to give Preller anything close to what he gave up for Myers to begin with??

As for Justin Upton, that Padres have no choice but to trade him--He is NOT going to hang around a rebuilding small-market team like SD next season, even if they could afford what his agent wants for Upton. Padres are already tied to a max-contract player--one with arthritic hips (Kemp) who can no longer generate consistent power from his lower body, thanks to another sucker deal that Preller could not resist. Upton is a streaky slugger not worth a max deal for a small market team, yet he's the most attractive chip the Padres have at this point--IF Preller can actually obtain players that other teams haven't privately already given up on. I think many baseball people now have serious doubts that AJ is as perceptive with his personnel assessments as he thinks he is.

The Kimbrell deal I had no problem with, as Benoit's age finally caught up with him this spring and he took a serious dive as far as his velocity. Even though Kimbrell has had his issues, without him in a closing role we likely would have lost at least 5 more games with Benoit (or Thayer-gag) trying to close. It is true that the Padres talent assessments have been historically bad over the years. The most painful example of that recently is watching Rizzo lead the Cubs season by season (another example of ex-Padres front office staff stealing us blind.) The Padres seem to have little clue of how to develop the good players they do draft, as well as assess the potential of their minor leaguers: Rizzo, Petersons, Turner, Mallex Smith (and maybe even Renfro at this point.) Preller has a lot to prove and I hope he does not continue to waste our minors system in the process...

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

Preller is a failure:

While Padres GM A.J. Preller is, on general principle, to be commended for first his boldness and then his steadfastness, his sweeping experiment hasn't worked. Almost none of it has worked, really.

By way of reminder, Preller not long after being hired got to work remaking the Padres' roster with the zeal of the converted. Gone were Yasmani Grandal, Rene Rivera, Everth Cabrera, Carlos Quentin, Seth Smith, Cameron Maybin, Chris Denorfia, Jesse Hahn, and a host of prospects. Brought in were Matt Kemp, James Shields, Justin Upton, Melvin Upton Jr., Craig Kimbrel, Will Middlebrooks, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, and Clint Barmes. The moves were conspicuous, and Preller hogged the winter headlines for quite a while. The fan base was roused, understandably so.

However, Preller's maneuverings, which were designed to position the Padres as a contender in 2015, left the infield in terrible shape, ignored catcher defense in general and pitch-framing in particular, forced the team to make do without a regular center fielder on the roster, and made the lineup far too right-handed. That's to say nothing of the strip-mined farm system. The team got more expensive, but it didn't get all that much better. And, no, this is not post-hoc argument from convenience; the Padres' flaws after Preller was done were obvious to anyone not invested in thinking otherwise.

On July 31 -- the non-waiver trade deadline -- the Padres found themselves four games below .500 and in fourth place. Still and yet, Preller didn't sell off any veterans to genuine contenders. Perhaps lured forward by an accommodating post-deadline stretch of schedule, he held fast and kept his blemished roster together. Well, that stretch of schedule -- 18 straight games against (fellow) losing teams coming out of the deadline -- has come and gone. Over that span, the Padres went 9-9. That's not terrible, but that's very much not seizing the opportunity. Now things get tougher.

To put a finer point on it, the SportsLine Projection Model as of Thursday gave the Padres' a 0.1 percent chance of making the postseason. As such, Preller's decision to stay the course at the non-waiver deadline looks most unwise. Yes, the schedule ahead was filled with losing teams, but the Padres were -- and are -- a member of that particular tribe.

To a limited extent, Preller can pivot this upcoming offseason and ship off a handful of vets for some youngsters, but his most valuable trade chip, Justin Upton, is bound for free agency and won't net him anything more than a compensatory draft pick. All of that is set against the larger reality that the Padres now have an aging pitching staff and, by their standards, an expensive roster. As well, the farm system is now very light on high-ceiling talents. There's also this: even after all the roster churn, even after winning five of their last six, the Padres are on pace to improve upon their 2014 record by ... two games.

Moving forward, San Diego probably lacks the young talent to swing more trades like the ones Preller made this past offseason. Moreover, they likely lack the budget flexibility to make prominent free agent additions or assume more dead-money contracts in trades (for 2016, they'll owe almost $70 million to just four players -- all Preller acquisitions).

To be fair, though, Preller's achieved something both notable and positive in his first season helming the Padres. On his watch -- and surely in large part owing to his many moves -- the Padres' home attendance is up almost 4,000 fans per game on average. That matters, particularly to Preller's bosses. That said, the team's grim mid-term outlook will at some point send that trendline in the other direction.

So circling back to that boldness and steadfastness, those are often good things. When the underlying plan is unsound and short-sighted, though, they're bad things.

While some of this is true, I'm not sure that the long-term prospects are as bad as projected. But we, uh, don't have an aging pitching staff, moron.

[floydefisher]

http://grantland.com/features/aj-pre...l-league-west/

That's what happens when you hire a gm that goes by the letters 'A J'.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

By the way:

Maybin (last 30 days): 64 AB (Eye injury; return to mean), .172 BA, .477 OPS, 2XBH, 9R 3 SB

Wisler (season): 80.1 IP, 5-5, 54K, 5.60 ERA, 1.62 WHIP. In and out of rotation. Rookie year, but not setting the world on fire. Was considered by many to be a #3; sounds about right.

Grandal: After AS first half, recently broke out of 0-36 slump. Last 30 games: 43 AB, .047 AVG, .255 OPS, 1R, 2B, 1 RBI. Player I was most upset about losing, but still streaky as hell. Compare season's numbers with admittedly disappointing Kemp and Kemp wins no contest.

Everth Cabrera: Out of MLB most of the year. Hooked on with SF and not starting with Crawford out all month. .208 AVG in 100 AB. 4 RBI. 2 SB. The usual.

Jesse Hahn: #4 or #5 numbers all year while battling injuries (career mean). Out for season with forearm strain (not positive).

Rene Rivera: 245 ABs, .180 BA, .497 OPS, 5 HR, 26 RBI. About career mean. He's a defensive specialist, so numbers don't get at his total value, but not a huge loss.

Joe Ross: Inserted in Nats rotation mid-year and performed very well before tailing off as IP surpassed previous career highs. One I think we'll miss. Probably a #3 or #4 in a great rotation next yr. But you have to give to get.

Burch Smith: 2015 TJ surgery. Out for year.

Jace Peterson 500 AB, .238 BA, .647 OPS, 52 R, 32 XBH incl 5 HR, 12 SB, 51 RBI. Started out strong for ATL but has tailed off considerably. .205 with 1 RBI in last 30.

Trea Turner: Going to be a really good player--even a primetime one-- but we knew that.

Max Fried: Hasn't pitched this year. Another one you hated to give up but injuries have hurt his development and stock.

Mallex Smith: Big year. .306 AVG, .760 OPS, 57 SB, 84 R. Now in AAA for Braves and named org's co-player of year. I undervalued his hit skill, but again, you've got to give to get.

Zach Eflin: Good year for Reading(AA), with strong postseason starts. 8-6, 2.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.6 K/9. Solid if unspectacular. Looks like #3 or #4.

I think a full year paints a different picture. And despite all of our disappointment with the team this year, I don't think we sold off a bunch of stellar prospects for junk. We've seen positives from the guys we've gotten, especially with a better second half from Kemp. But the rotation has sucked balls and those guys were already on the roster. If there's a criticism, it's that Cashner, Kennedy and Ross haven't gotten it done and we don't have the young pitchers we traded to plug in but after years of no offense (and no excitement for apathetic fans), that was a strategy shift we had to try. But you couldn't foresee our SP shitting the bed like they did.

Turner, Ross and Mallex Smith look like the real deal. Wisler, Peterson and Eflin look like contributors but not studs. Fried, Hahn, Smith, Maybin, and Grandal are injury/wildcards that you can't seem to count on. I don't think Preller is a teardown artist. I think he carried out some directives from management and had to give up some prize possessions to do so. Question was whether he screwed the pooch at the deadline. Personally, I think you hold steady on these assets and hope to see rebounds. I maintain that Upton and Myers are the keepers. Maybe even Kemp. Lineup was never the same without Myers. Kennedy and Cashner probably need to move on unless Balsey can sort them out.

Grantland gets an F for evaluating this midseason.

[6025]

Just the fact that Kemp hit for the cycle makes it worth it to me.