Clayton Richard

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

No matter what happens we are a small market team with a culdesac to our south, and two large market teams to our north (both w/multiple championships). Its very hard for them (Padres) to compete money wise. That leaves us three options ( 1) go big for a year see if you can win a championship spend a lot of money and ride that wave, go the (2) Moneyball route or go to your (3) farm system.

The Florida Marlins proved that you can win a championship by spending money for one year, but the wave they were supposed to ride (after a fire sale) did not follow. I could be wrong but I do not recall a true Moneyball team winning a championship. Plenty have made it to the playoffs. Regardless of what the movie says the Boston Red Sox were not a moneyball team. They did use Sabre metrics, but they could afford the on base percentage/expensive player with power and speed. The only real & active option for the Padres is the farm system. You hope you have health on your side & the ability to maintain these plays with in your system and eventually landing on and staying with the Big team. For a small market team winning puts butts in the seats.

OK, even though I might disagree with some of your specifics (particularly about "small market"), let's assume your basic premises are correct. So how long would you say we've been working the "farm system" angle? Over a decade. And how did that play out? Scrimped at the major league level. Scrimped on the system (Signability picks like Bush, insufficient due diligence on Schmidt and Dykstra, failed to provide adequate oversight and leadership with Venezuelan academy, non-signing of Whitson). And man, you want to talk about a string of f'd up picks, think about these guys:

'99 Baxter (dead, car wreck)
'00 Mark Phillips (just sucked for a #2 overall)
'01 Gautreau (intestinal disorder, skin cancer)
'02 Khalil Greene (social anxiety disorder)
'03 Stauffer (damaged goods)
'04 Matt Bush (TJ surgery, inmate number C07392)
'05 Cesar Carillo (TJ surgery)
'06 Antonelli (no injuries or illnesses, but 8/31 lifetime in MLB, retired)
'07 Nick Schmidt (3 Class A games before TJ)
'07 Drew Cumberland (retired; concussion symptoms)
'07 Luebke (TJ)
'08 Forsythe (Knee surgery; surgery on both feet)
'09 Donovan Tate (substance abuse, immaturity)
'10 Whiston (not signed)
'11 Ross (shoulder)

That's an f'd up track record. A lot of poor leadership and management there. Not how you build through 'the system.'

[TABF]

OK, even though I might disagree with some of your specifics (particularly about "small market"), let's assume your basic premises are correct. So how long would you say we've been working the "farm system" angle? Over a decade. And how did that play out? Scrimped at the major league level. Scrimped on the system (Signability picks like Bush, insufficient due diligence on Schmidt and Dykstra, failed to provide adequate oversight and leadership with Venezuelan academy, non-signing of Whitson). And man, you want to talk about a string of f'd up picks, think about these guys:

'99 Baxter (dead, car wreck)
'00 Mark Phillips (just sucked for a #2 overall)
'01 Gautreau (intestinal disorder, skin cancer)
'02 Khalil Greene (social anxiety disorder)
'03 Stauffer (damaged goods)
'04 Matt Bush (TJ surgery, inmate number C07392)
'05 Cesar Carillo (TJ surgery)
'06 Antonelli (no injuries or illnesses, but 8/31 lifetime in MLB, retired)
'07 Nick Schmidt (3 Class A games before TJ)
'07 Drew Cumberland (retired; concussion symptoms)
'07 Luebke (TJ)
'08 Forsythe (Knee surgery; surgery on both feet)
'09 Donovan Tate (substance abuse, immaturity)
'10 Whiston (not signed)
'11 Ross (shoulder)

That's an f'd up track record. A lot of poor leadership and management there. Not how you build through 'the system.'

Tough to argue w/your list, but I'm not sure my point involved the 1st round wows for the last 10 years.

MLB drafts are 40 players deep and the farm system often deals with foreign players through international camps that teams have. Not to mention marquee players young players dealt in trade deadline and off season deals. Farm Systems and MLB teams are not designed via the 1st round pick. It sure helps if said 1st rd pick develops into something special.

As far as 10 years as a Farm System team... not sure about that...when did Fuson, Alderson and DePodesta leave? They were our obvious face of moneyball... Fuson liked the draft and I recall him attacking players who he could sign for value that had the sabre metrics valued numbers.

[TABF]

Great article... Take a look at some of the later first round picks within the last 20 years. This article goes to show you that just because your first round pick doesn't mean you were going to be Marquee.

http://m.si.com/3017888/breaking-down-what-each-draft-pick-has-yielded-from-1990-2010/

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

Tough to argue w/your list, but I'm not sure my point involved the 1st round wows for the last 10 years.

MLB drafts are 40 players deep and the farm system often deals with foreign players through international camps that teams have. Not to mention marquee players young players dealt in trade deadline and off season deals. Farm Systems and MLB teams are not designed via the 1st round pick. It sure helps if said 1st rd pick develops into something special.

As far as 10 years as a Farm System team... not sure about that...when did Fuson, Alderson and DePodesta leave? They were our obvious face of moneyball... Fuson liked the draft and I recall him attacking players who he could sign for value that had the sabre metrics valued numbers.

I agree with your point about first round draft picks. We're not talking about the NFL or NBA. However, to have a decade go by and not hit on one....ONE....is a stinging indictment of "building a system." Not only "hitting," but guys that even played in the majors or played more than a handful of games in the minors. That's a pathetic performance for a franchise that is supposedly dedicated to using the draft to get better. It's fine to say you want to do that, but it means you actually have to be one of the very best franchises at scouting and developing players since you have strategically chosen to eschew doing, really, anything at the major league level.

I would go back to the decline of the '98 WS team during the Moores era as the onset of the "system" strategy in San Diego, because that's about the time that Moores started explaining his moves by the economics of baseball which put "small market clubs" like the Padres at a competitive disadvantage. So that's over a decade. And the only players the system has produced that were difference makers for anyone are Peavy and Freese, as best I can tell. Headley certainly last year, but he's on the fringe on that for me at this point. Let me know if I'm forgetting anyone.

But if you don't accept first round performance as an indicator, let's look at it differently. How many homegrown difference-making players are on the active roster? I guess Cabrera (Rule 5, but has been with us long enough to consider him a guy we developed), Headley and Gyorko....but all three of thise guys are major question marks, so not sure at this point that any of them really fall in the difference-making category.

[TABF]

Headley and Gyorko....but all three of thise guys are major question marks, so not sure at this point that any of them really fall in the difference-making category.

Again, tough to argue the 1st round pick wows... Not one you listed is a producer and I get that. But, as I pointed out via the articles. 1st round picks (especially later ones), don't necessarily amount to Game Changing All Stars.

On your note quoted above, I agree that at this point that Headley and Gyorko are not in the difference making catergory, but I wouldn't call them major questions marks either. They are both very good infielders who can hit the ball a lil bit. Headley has a very very tough assignement (Be the guy)... Its not easy to be the guy when he isn't protected in the lineup. In baseball when you "try" to do anything, you generally find the mental wows, which Chases has seen for the better part of this season. Last year, he just played, didn't try to do shit......just "played"...

Gyroko can eventually be the guy that protects Headley in the lineup, but again, he is young...