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How close were the Chargers to being Super Bowl contenders?
By Pro Football Focus
Breaking Down The Roster
To be considered a Super Bowl contender, 40 percent of the players who took part in at least 250 snaps (varies by team) have to be rated as good or elite. Here's how Pro Football Focus evaluated each of the Chargers' 32 qualifying players.*
Elite
1
S Eric Weddle
NFL Average: 2
Good
4
CB Brandon Flowers
QB Philip Rivers
WR Malcom Floyd
RB Branden Oliver
NFL Average: 4.3
Average
21
TE Ladarius Green
OT King Dunlap
WR Keenan Allen
WR Eddie Royal
OLB Dwight Freeney
ILB Manti Te'o
ILB Andrew Gachkar
C Chris Watt
DE Ricardo Mathews
DE Corey Liuget
ILB Kavell Conner
OLB Jarret Johnson
DT Sean Lissemore
OLB Melvin Ingram
S Jahleel Addae
OT D.J. Fluker
DE Tenny Palepoi
TE Antonio Gates
C Rich Ohrnberger
CB Richard Marshall
S Marcus Gilchrist
NFL Average: 21
Bad
6
RB Donald Brown
DE Kendall Reyes
G Chad Rinehart
G Johnnie Troutman
ILB Donald Butler
CB Shareece Wright
NFL Average: 5.8
*Pro Football Focus uses its proprietary metrics to evaluate every player on every snap in every game. Each player's rating here is based solely off how his performance in 2014 compared to that of the peers at his position. For more methodology explanation, click here.
THE INSIDE STORY
Where NFL Nation agrees/disagrees with Pro Football Focus
by Eric D. Williams, ESPN.com
Brandon Flowers
CB Brandon Flowers: A late addition to the 2014 roster after signing a one-year deal in June, Flowers served as a significant upgrade to San Diego's ailing secondary. The Virginia Tech product added toughness, versatility and playmaking ability to the back end of San Diego's defense. Flowers finished with 52 combined tackles, led the team with three interceptions and also totaled 10 pass breakups. After San Diego allowed 259 passing yards per game last year (29th in the NFL), that number dipped to 214 this season (fourth in the NFL). Flowers deserves a fair share of the credit for that.
Philip Rivers
QB Philip Rivers: PFF ranked four QBs -- Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger -- as elite. Rivers also belongs among that group. Over the past two seasons, he's second in completion percentage (68 percent), fourth in touchdowns (63) and fifth in total QBR (69.3). Rivers played at an MVP level through the first half of 2014, with an 85.5 total QBR (second in the NFL, behind Peyton Manning) and 20 touchdowns (No. 3). Then a back injury, inconsistent pass protection and the lack of a running game (3.4 ypc, second-worst) led to a dip in his play. At 33 years old, Rivers can still perform at an elite level for a few more years. He's known for his toughness, having played in 144 consecutive regular-season starts, second only to Eli Manning (167).
Branden Oliver
RB Branden Oliver: With Ryan Mathews injured most of last season, Oliver received an increased workload and had his fair share of good moments. The undrafted rookie out of Buffalo started seven games and led the Chargers with 582 rushing yards. But he had just three runs of 20-plus yards on 160 attempts and averaged a paltry 3.6 yards per carry. Oliver has potential to rate as a good running back, but we need to see more of a sample size first.
King Dunlap
OT King Dunlap: In two seasons, Dunlap developed into an above-average left tackle, and as an unrestricted free agent, he should be San Diego's top priority this offseason. Dunlap played a career-high 1,000 snaps and gave up just three sacks and five quarterback hits on 625 pass attempts. Rivers is not the most fleet of foot, so the Chargers needs a reliable left tackle to protect his blindside. Dunlap consistently does that while also making his presence felt in the run game. The Chargers ran for more yards per carry (4.2) outside left tackle than in any other direction. Rivers said Dunlap should have made the Pro Bowl in 2014; he should be rated higher here.
Antonio Gates
TE Antonio Gates: At 34, Gates finished this season with 12 TDs, tied for the most among TEs with Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas. Gates finished with more touchdowns than elite-rated tight ends Greg Olsen (six TDs) and Jason Witten (five TDs) combined, while also totaling more receiving yards than Witten in 2014 (821 to 703). Sure, he's not exactly a mauler in the run game -- he ranked as PFF's fourth-worst run-blocking TE this season -- but Gates played in 72 percent of the snaps (721), which shows San Diego doesn't use him as a decoy. He remains one of the elite tight ends in the NFL.
Donald Butler
ILB Donald Butler: The University of Washington product, who signed a seven-year, $51.8-million contract extension the past offseason, was the third-highest paid linebacker in the league this season ($11.9 million). But his play didn't live up to the contract. Butler made very few impact plays and finished the season with one sack, three fumble recoveries and no interceptions. Eric Weddle took over defensive play-calling duties for Butler midway through the year as defensive coordinator John Pagano took Butler off the field on passing situations due to uneven play. He also failed to play a 16-game season for a third consecutive year, after dislocating his elbow against Denver in Week 15. "The sad thing was he was playing at a higher level before that injury and truly getting better," Pagano said. "He's got to get healthy and be ready to come back next year."
Good News, Bad News
by Sam Monson, Pro Football Focus
Slot coverage snaps per reception allowed
Good News: Signed almost as an afterthought after being released by the Chiefs, Brandon Flowers, PFF's No. 85 CB in 2013, rebounded in a big way this season. Through Week 11, he ranked behind only Chris Harris Jr. and Vontae Davis in PFF's cornerback rankings. Even with some poor performances down the stretch, he finished 15th overall. He allowed a reception from the slot once every 16.6 coverage snaps, a figure bettered by only Darrelle Revis.
Bad News: Corey Luiget and Kendall Reyes continue to underperform along the defensive line. Luiget actually led the team with five sacks, which in itself is a problem, but neither player won much in the run game. Reyes actually had the lowest run-stop percentage of any 3-4 DE with 200 or more run snaps (3.8 percent).
The Best, Worst Values
by Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com
Best -- CB Brandon Flowers: Shortly before training camp, the Chargers signed Flowers to a one-year contract worth a total of $3 million. They got a pretty high-end performance out of it; he intercepted three passes and defended a total of 11 in 14 games. Those aren't Joe Haden numbers, but Flowers wasn't making Joe Haden money, either. The deal allows Flowers to become an unrestricted free agent after the season, which reduces its value to the Chargers, but they certainly got their money's worth in 2014.
Worst -- RB Donald Brown: This past offseason, Brown signed a three-year contract that guaranteed a $4 million salary, which was the high end in a depressed market for running backs. As such, his three-start, 223-yard output -- at 2.6 yards per carry -- should be considered a deep disappointment. Teams find productive runners deep in the draft or via college free agency every year. The Chargers proved that this season with the emergence of rookie Branden Oliver, who added 582 rushing yards, despite making the rookie minimum of $420,000.
2014 Salary
2014 Salary
Grading the QB
by Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com
Philip Rivers' performance dropped a bit from 2013, but overall, he remained a top-10 NFL quarterback in his 11th season. Most concerning were his 18 interceptions, the second-most in his career. Thirteen of those 18 came in the second half of the season, when Rivers played through several injuries that might have contributed to a performance dip. Despite his struggles down the stretch, Rivers still managed a 66.8 QBR (10th overall). He's signed for 2015 at the relatively affordable price of $15.8 million, but now might be a good time for the Chargers to extend his contract to avoid a possible franchise-tag scenario next year.
Positional Needs
by Eric D. Williams, ESPN.com
Outside linebacker: Dwight Freeney is a free agent, and the Chargers could save $5 million against the cap by cutting Jarret Johnson (just one sack in 2014). So there's a chance neither player will return in 2015. If that's the case, Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu -- who had six sacks combined this season -- have to create more havoc up front. Look for the Chargers (26 sacks in 2014, fourth-worst in the NFL) to add a few more bodies to the mix at this key position.
Running back: The Chargers called a pass play 63 percent of the time this past season, the 10th-most in the league. The reason? San Diego could not get the run game going. The Chargers averaged 3.2 yards per carry on first down -- when defenses know offenses want to run the ball - which was second-worst in the NFL. Ryan Mathews once again failed to make it through an entire season healthy and will be an unrestricted free agent in March. The Chargers need an every-down running back who can grind it out between the tackles and take some pressure off Rivers.
Offensive line: King Dunlap is a keeper at left tackle, but after that there aren't too many positives here. San Diego's depth was tested up front this season, with five different players starting at center and three different players used at right guard. The Chargers -- who gained 3.6 yards per carry on runs between the guards, 29th in the league -- need more talent along the interior of the line, especially with center Nick Hardwick likely to retire.
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